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TG Analysis: Phillies acquire Blanton from A’s

Philadelphia Phillies

Acquired RHP Joe Blanton from the Athletics for 2B Adrian Cardenas, LHP Josh Outman and OF Matt Spencer.

The National League East, while providing some compelling parity (the Phillies, Mets and Marlins are bunched within 1.5 games of one another), is also an eminently flawed division. Be it the outfield woes in Atlanta and Queens or the Fish Fry of a rotation in Florida, each team has a rather sizable wart that keeps fans and analysts alike from embracing any of the aforementioned organizations as a championship-caliber outlet.

Philadephia’s acquisition of Blanton won’t have anywhere near the “Q Rating” of the more splashy Sabathia or Harden proceedings (and deservedly so), but the move helps shore up what had been a particular weak spot on days where a certain lefthanded changeup artist is not scheduled to pitch: Philly’s rotation ERA (4.48) ranks 19th in the majors.

Blanton, 27, is a fellow who derives a significant amount of his value from his durability. The righthander has twice gone over the 200-inning threshold in his career, and is on pace to compile 217 innings of work in 2008. There is nothing at all flashy about him: A four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change) but no out pitch; a significant workload, but at moderate quality (career ERA+ of 100, exactly average). With a career K/9 of 5.10 and 45.2 GB%, Blanton is neither overpowering or a wormkiller; he is simply a league-average starter who tends to work regularly and relatively deep into games. That isn’t sexy, but it collects a fair amount of worth for any team. The 6-3, 250 pounder is under team control through 2010, so Philadelphia will not have to make another Eaton-sized foray into the free agent market.

Speaking of Eaton (making $7.64M in ‘08, $8.5M in ‘09), the flammable righthander is now likely booted to the ‘pen in favor of Blanton. For the purposes of seeing how much of an upgrade Blanton constitutes over the free agent blunder, let’s take a page out of Joe Sheehan’s playbook and estimate the potential runs saved.

Let’s assume that each would have made 13 starts over the rest of the season. Using averages of what each pitcher has done over the past 2 seasons, I’m going to estimate the run values for each pitcher. Over ‘07 and ‘08 Blanton has a Runs Allowed (includes earned and unearned) value of 4.54, and an IP/start total of about 6 and 2/3. Eaton, meanwhile, has a RA of 6.27, and an IP/start of about 5 and 1/3. Using those estimators, let’s see the potential improvement of swapping in Blanton at Eaton’s expense:

Blanton: about 87 IP, 43.9 runs allowed

Eaton: about 69 and 1/3 IP, 48.3 runs. Let’s assume that the additional 17 and 2/3 IP are filled by a league average pitcher (4.65 RA). That’s and additional 9.1 runs added to the total, for a final tally of 57.4 runs.

So, Blanton’s total runs allowed is estimated at 43.9, with Eaton’s at 57.4, a difference of 13.5 runs. One win is generally considered to be worth ten runs, so the Phillies save themselves near a win and a half by shelving Eaton. That may not seem like much, but for a team on the precipice of playoff contention, that could make a significant difference.

However, the above math assumes Blanton maintains his recent level of performance, but his move to Philly may not be as straightforward as “NL= no DH= better numbers” (more on that in the Oakland section).

Oakland Athletics

Acquired 2B Adrian Cardenas, LHP Josh Outman and OF Matt Spencer from the Phillies for RHP Joe Blanton.

Baseball is much like the stock market: each team seeks to “sell high” and “buy low” on commodities (in this case, baseball players). Perhaps no front office executive has garnered a better reputation in this regard than A’s GM Billy Beane. Sure, he’s not perfect (Charles Thomas, Juan Cruz and Dan Meyer for Tim Hudson, anyone?) but more often than not Beane’s trade hauls end up fortifying Oakland with talented, cheap, minimal service-time players.

All that being said, you may be wondering why the organization would seemingly “sell low” on Blanton, perhaps in the midst of his least productive season in the majors (4.96 ERA, 62/35 K/BB). Well, in order for a GM to “sell high”, he needs to believe that said player will rebound and be able to recover that value at a future date. In Blanton’s case, however, there are some reasons to believe that his value is pretty much as high as it is going to get.

The righthander does have sharp control (career 2.39 BB/9), but his K rates are below league-average and have slipped even further in the first half of 2008 (4.39 K/9). Blanton, however, is able to veil his shortcoming (namely, putting the ball in play so much) by playing behind perhaps the best defensive team in the majors: the A’s rank first in Defensive Efficiency (the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs). Put him behind a team with less adept leather (say, Philadephia, 12th in Defensive Efficiency) and in a ballpark less forgiving on the pitching front (Bill James Park Factor for McAfee Coliseum from ‘05 to ‘07: 93; Citizens Bank Park: 105), and you’re basically left with a heftier Paul Byrd. When Blanton’s talents are put in that light, the package received by Oakland looks about fair.

Adrian Cardenas, 20, is considered to be perhaps the best second base prospect in the minors. That is sort of a backhanded scouting complement, as the keystone is a final destination for most prospects, not a starting point. A 2006 supplemental first round pick out of a Miami high school, Cardenas is a career .303/.365/.429 hitter, including a .307/.369/.441 line at High-A Clearwater in 2008. The lefty hitter has a fairly patient approach and a line-drive stroke, though his 5-11, 190 pound frame does not portend to much extra-base pop. Moved off of shortstop very early in his pro career, Cardenas is only adequate defensively and has speed that’s considered a tick below average. He’s no star, but Cardenas looks like a relatively advanced high school product, one who could be ready for Oakland by late 2009 or early 2010 as an offensive-minded second baseman.

Josh Outman, 23, has perhaps the most apt name of any pitcher in history. Aside from an excellent last name, Outman is a 6-1, 180 pound lefty with a decent three-pitch mix: a low-90’s fastball and a workable slider and changeup. Moved to the bullpen during the ‘08 season, Outman has posted a 3.20 ERA in 70.1 frames at AA Reading, striking out out 66 batters and walking 37. Control has always been something of an issue for the Central Missouri State product, with a career BB/9 of 4.41. Oakland may move Outman back into the rotation for now, but his future would appear to reside in the ‘pen, given the control issues and Oakland’s plethora of starting candidates in the minors.

Matt Spencer, 22, was a 2007 third round selection out of Arizona State. Spencer originally started out at North Carolina, but transferred after two seasons over a playing time dispute. The 6-4, 225 pound lefty has good athleticism for a man his size as well as arm strength (he was a reliever at ASU), but his pro career has gotten off to a sluggish start: .263/.318/.469 at Low-A Williamsport in 2007 and .251/.318/.368 at High-A Clearwater in 2008. College-trained products don’t get to slump in A-ball and maintain their prospect status; at this point he’s likely considered an organizational filler.

Much like the pitcher traded away, Oakland’s trade haul isn’t stunning. However, it does provide the organization with an up-the-middle prospect with decent secondary skills,  as well as a lefty with some talent under team control for 6 years. Considering the veil was beginning to reveal Blanton’s mere adequacy, this is not a poor swap from Oakland’s vantage point.

This entry was posted on Friday, July 18th, 2008 at 7:37 am and is filed under Josh Outman, Adrian Cardenas, Joe Blanton, Phillies, Athletics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.