The Ultimate Question: Hughes or Ellsbury?
It has been discussed for days in the comments section here as well as sites and blogs across the internet. If you were running the Minnesota Twins, who do you want more in a deal for Johan Santana, the young phenom pitcher Phil Hughes or the scrappy table setter Jacoby Ellsbury?
Since I’ve been discussing this very question for days, I simply want to pose this question to everyone. Put aside any other players that may or may not be part of this deal. Basically what it comes down to is who you want, Hughes or Ellsbury.
While you can’t help but be attracted to the glitz and glamor of Phil Hughes, I have to say that I feel Jacoby Ellsbury is something the Twins are in need of much more than another pitching prospect. The Twins have been cranking out solid pitching prospects for years and have proven they have no problem drafting and cultivating young arms. However the Twins have not shown that they can effectively draft and mold hitters the same way. Because of this fact coupled with a very sparse depth chart for the Twins in the outfield (particularly center field) and the desperate need for a lead off hitter, I believe the Twins need to add Ellsbury to their lineup.
With that said, who do you want to see the Twins land between the two super-prospects? Let your voice be heard in the comments section below along with defense of your argument. Who knows, Billy Smith could be a daily reader of “Twins Killings” and your comments could sway his decision.
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68 Responses to “The Ultimate Question: Hughes or Ellsbury?”
December 3rd, 2007 at 5:51 pm
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December 3rd, 2007 at 7:14 pm
This isn’t a fair debate. It doesn’t include the entire parts of both deals.
First off, if the Twins accept the Yanks offer, they’d be getting Hughes and Melky Cabrera. Why is this important to add? Because, they fill two needs on there team.
Same with Boston, the Twinkies would get either Lester and Ellsbury or Bucholz and Lester.
The choice then comes to what you would rather have. The better pitching prospect (Hughes) or the better outfield prospect (Ellsbury).
Usually I always lean to the positional players over their pitching counterparts, but here I think I’d take Hughes. The main reason for this decision is due to the fact that the Twins are losing a pitcher. So to me it is paramount that they get the best option to replace what they have lost. That is Hughes. Plus, you get Cabrera to play CF.
If you look at Boston’s offer, you get the better positional player (Ellsbury), but that isn’t the primary need at this point.
As I stated during my review of the Delmon Young deal, CF is not as big a hole because in a pinch Delmon could play there. However, with Garza and Santana now gone (assuming the deal goes through) you’ll have to replace two arms counted on being in your starting rotation.
That means you must take the Hughes deal over the Ellsbury one, just due to the fact you are getting a more major league ready pitcher capable of reaching Santana’s level of production.
December 3rd, 2007 at 7:22 pm
I ahve always been a fan of the homegrown talent and the way the Twins have gone about their business. Its kind of distressing to see small market teams to have to dump their best players due to salary concerns. Let me first say that I am a Yankees fan but I love baseball. Right now Ellsbury is riding high on an excellent post season and alot of hype while Hughes is post hype. Ellsbury projects to be a sparkplug guy that will hit for a decent average and not hit alot of home runs. Kind of sounds like another Lew Ford to me. On the other hand Hughes projects to be a number one or number two starter. Lets not forget that the Twins have lost Garza, Silva already and Santanna (soon). I think this leaves Bosner, Baker and Slowey. Not really that awe inspiring. I realize that the other players were not part of the equation but I think Cuddyer, Cabrera and Young is a pretty good outfield. I would say take the offer from the yanks. (actually i would rather see them not make the trade and see what the big three can do.)
December 3rd, 2007 at 7:26 pm
You take Hughes over Ellsbury, no contest.
But the Yankees don’t have anyone in their system that matches Jed Lowrie. I’d still take Lester, Crisp, Lowrie and a prospect over Hughes, Cabrera and a prospect.
December 3rd, 2007 at 7:30 pm
The third or forth player may be Alberto Gonzalez, a MLB ready shortstop. Not a big stick but a defensive wiz. Could fill the SS void. I think the twinkies are looking for now and to be ready for their new park in 2010. Lowrie is at least 2 years away.
December 3rd, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Reluctantly, I’d also have to make the trade with the Yankees. Ideally the Twins need to get as much offense out of any trade as possible, but when you’ve already traded away Garza and Santana, you can’t turn away Phil Hughes. Cabrera has been scouted well, is thought to have an above average arm, and will eventually be a run producer, which is what the Twins have been looking for. I think the Twins To get Ellsbury and a big question mark in Lester is just a bad move. Going with Hughes and Cabrera is actually closer to the deal that the Twins want from Boston (Ellsbury/Bucholz) than the deal that Boston is offering (Ellsbury/Lester). I want to have faith in Bill Smith, but if he whiffs by going after Ellsbury, we’re in big trouble.
December 3rd, 2007 at 8:11 pm
I realize that comparing just the two isn’t fair as its not a one-for-one trade. But as the center pieces of each deal, I simply want to look at which will be better overall for the Twins.
I still think Ellsbury is more of what we need for our club. Sure Hughes could be great, but I would rather have a great everyday player than a great once every five games player. That’s how I see it.
Plus Ellsbury didn’t just have a great post season like everyone keeps noting, he had a great stretch of 33 games during the stretch run for the Sox. When they needed someone to step up when Manny Ramirez went down, Ellsbury stepped up. When they needed a spark, Ellsbury was there. He hit .353/.394/.509 in 116 at-bats with 3 HR, 18 RBI, and 9 stolen bases. I don’t know about you, but that .394 OBP over 33 games is something I’d like to see at the top of our lineup. Especially with how badly the Twins were last season getting on base (granted he may not keep up that high of an average but he had a lifetime .389 OBP in 250 games in the Minors with 105 stolen bases).
So I know the other players in the deal bear a lot of weight when deciding, however when you boil it down it really comes down to which mega-prospect you like better.
December 3rd, 2007 at 8:14 pm
Hughes, without any question. He’s an elite pitching prospect with a chance to be an ace. Ellsbury is a nice player, but he is hugely overvalued right now because of his success in a short stint in the majors last year. He’ll be a decent on-base guy with good speed, solid defense, and very little power. I’m really not convinced that the difference between Cabrera and Ellsbury will be all that great in the long run.
Lowrie is at least 2 years away.
That’s an absurd statement. He tore up Triple-A last year. He’d compete for a starting job out of spring training next year if the Twins acquired him. I’m not convinced he’ll be able to play SS in the majors though.
December 3rd, 2007 at 8:15 pm
I also forgot to mention that I am a Red Sox fan as well (not bigger than the Twins of course, not even close) and I was able to see a lot of Ellsbury last season. He is a special player and is exactly the type of player the Twins want (runs hard, hits everywhere, great fielder, hard-nosed, etc). So I can tell you first hand how special this kid is and how badly I want him on our team.
December 3rd, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Plus Ellsbury didn’t just have a great post season like everyone keeps noting, he had a great stretch of 33 games during the stretch run for the Sox. When they needed someone to step up when Manny Ramirez went down, Ellsbury stepped up. When they needed a spark, Ellsbury was there. He hit .353/.394/.509 in 116 at-bats with 3 HR, 18 RBI, and 9 stolen bases. I don’t know about you, but that .394 OBP over 33 games is something I’d like to see at the top of our lineup. Especially with how badly the Twins were last season getting on base (granted he may not keep up that high of an average but he had a lifetime .389 OBP in 250 games in the Minors with 105 stolen bases).
Sample siiiiiize…. Ellsbury’s BABIP over that stretch was a ridiculous .380. He really didn’t show a ton of patience, drawing just eight walks over 127 plate appearances, so once that batting average comes back down to Earth the overall line is not going to look nearly as pretty.
The Twins have plenty of nice pitching prospects, but with Garza gone they don’t have anyone that profiles to be an ace, save for Liriano who is a major question mark.
They do, however, have several speed-based center field prospects, ranging from Span to Pridie to Revere.
December 3rd, 2007 at 8:53 pm
I just think what I have seen from Ellsbury is special. Of course I just saw this on ESPN:
“The Red Sox have reportedly offered a package that includes one of their top prospects — Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury — but only one.”
Well now if they are offering Buchholz that is a completely different story. I personally like Buchholz’s make up a little more than Hughes. While Hughes has a lot of talent, Buchholz has shown a lot more at an early stage in his career. Buchholz has truly electric stuff and would be an incredible addition. Here is a brief scouting report I wrote on Buchholz for my “top 25 prospect” list:
“[Buchholz] Has already proven he has the tools and talent to be an ace in the big leagues. He has a mid-90’s fastball, plus curveball, an incredible changeup, and puts it all together with great control. Very good at handling pressure and has the makeup to be a big game pitcher which is exactly what a team like Boston needs.”
And putting all this Hughes vs. Ellsbury discussion aside, I do want to state for the record I wouldn’t be upset at all if the Twins went the Hughes route as it still would be a good deal.
Comparing packages that both teams are offering, both have great pieces and are difficult to chose between. Of course my hatred of the Yankees makes me sway towards the Sox in a tie-breaker.
December 3rd, 2007 at 8:58 pm
Yeah, I think it is pretty obvious that you are a Red Sox fan.
When it comes to evaluating pitchers against position players, I use this rule of thumb.
In order for the pitcher to present more value, he has to be that much better than the player involved. In this case it holds true. While Gammons and some others claim Ellsbury has “Grady Sizemore ability”, most feel he’s a talented leadoff hitter in the making. Right now, the Twins need the pitching more.
A possible future ace (Hughes) not only wins that player/pitcher rule I stated above, but also addresses the biggest need Minnesota has.
Taking away the Jimmy Fallon in you, can you honestly say that Hughes is not a better choice here?
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:12 pm
Eric, I just think it is so difficult to say. We really haven’t seen what either is truly capable of. Like I said, I’m not going to go ballistic and freak out if one deal happens over the other as I would essentially be happy with either. But I just think that this lineup needs more help than our rotation.
Look how well Santana, Baker, and Silva (and Garza for the most part) pitched last season and would end up getting a no decision or even worse a loss because our team couldn’t muster up more than one or two runs in a game. As a Twins fan it killed me. So if the best pitcher in baseball can’t even put together a better record than 15-13 despite a 3.33 ERA, what hope does Phil Hughes have? Even if he is as good as Santana, if the Twins don’t score runs, what’s the point?
The Twins need someone who can get on base and Ellsbury did that his entire 250 game Minor League career in addition to his entire 33 game Major League career. As Nick N pointed out its all based on sample size, but Ellsbury hasn’t shown us any decline from what he’s done his entire professional career. And that has to account for something. If the Twins have a true lead off hitter who can get on base for Mauer, Young, Morneau, and Cuddyer, that makes a huge difference.
I know I’m in the minority here and I’m not just lobbying for Ellsbury because I’m a Sox fan. I have seen what this kid can do and would love to see him in our lineup.
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:23 pm
You have to factor in that you know have Delmon Young in right field as well. If you take the Yanks deal, your lineup looks like this.
1. Cabrera (or 9th if you’d like)
2. Brendan Harris (I’d even entertain Mauer here)
3. Joe Mauer
4. Justin Morneau
5. Michael Cuddyer
6. Delmon Young
7. Jason Kubel (or other DH options)
8. Nick Punto
9. Alexi Casilla
While this is just off the top of my head, that’s a lengthly lineup with alot of speed. You can play to the turf (much like Luis Castillo and Christian Guzman did) and try to score runs that way.
While Ellsbury would look better at the top, that’s not terrible considering Phil Hughes becomes one of your starters.
The difference isn’t staggering, but it is there. Young could easily come close to Hunter’s production this year, while you can expect Morneau and Mauer to increase as they gain another year.
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:24 pm
I’m on Matthew’s side. If we kept Santana, I don’t think we would be an improved team. He lost so many games last year where we lost by 3 runs or less.
I’m worried about Hughes and his injuries. I don’t know who is more overrated, Caberera or Crisp. Ellsbury has a sexy swing like Mauer, and with two of them in the lineup I’d be drooling. Okay that sounded gay.
Whoever compared Ellsbury to Lew Ford is out of their mind. Sorry.
Lew Ford will be playing in Japan next year, just to let you know.
Santana obviously doesn’t want to be with the Twins, so we’re better off without him. If we could get a stud like Ellsbury to play CF that would be a great step in improving the team. I don’t think at this point Melky Cabrera, Denard Span, or Jason Tyner for that matter is the best option at this point.
So why would the Twins trade away a young pitcher (Garza) and get rid of their best player/pitcher (Santana) only to get another young pitcher? We might as well just drop Santana for nothing then. If you haven’t noticed, the Twins have great young pitching outside of Santana.
If you’re 25th ranked in offense, good pitching doesn’t do jack for you.
The way the Twins hit the baseball, Ellsbury is the best option.
Plus, Hank Steinbrenner is a bitch, why give him Santana?
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:50 pm
I have heard a lot of people say there isn’t a big difference between Melky Cabrera and Jacoby Ellsbury. Personally, I think there is a big difference.
Cabrera
(Minors) 357 G, .294/.347/.422, 39 SB
(Majors) 286 G, .275/.340/.388, 25 SB
Ellsbury
(Minors) 250 G, .313/.389/.425, 105 SB
(Majors) 33 G, .353/.394/.509, 9 SB
You can see that both player’s numbers have been pretty consistent between Majors and Minors (Ellsbury with a smaller sample size for the Majors). Cabrera is not a base stealer which can be seen by looking at his professional numbers. His OBP has also dropped off as it was only .325 in 2007.
I’d take Ellsbury over Cabrera hands down every time. It’s not even really that close.
December 3rd, 2007 at 10:31 pm
Not saying it is close, but I just think you are underestimating a kid that was the top prospect in the majors just a year ago.
He still pitched well in the heat of a pennant race without he best stuff. Those injuries were freakish, so don’t label him yet.
You aren’t keeping Santana, so any trade will have you better off in the long run. I know the propensity is to make people choose, but either deal would make you a winner.
December 3rd, 2007 at 10:46 pm
So why would the Twins trade away a young pitcher (Garza) and get rid of their best player/pitcher (Santana) only to get another young pitcher?
You just answered your own question. In losing Garza and Santana, the Twins are trimming two of the top three pitchers out of their organization. They need to get some power back at the top. The Twins will never have a truly great offense — they can’t afford it — so they need great pitching. Losing Santana and Garza and failing to replace them with a pitcher who has potential to be in that class leaves this organization very middle-heavy in terms of pitching.
You can see that both player’s numbers have been pretty consistent between Majors and Minors (Ellsbury with a smaller sample size for the Majors). Cabrera is not a base stealer which can be seen by looking at his professional numbers. His OBP has also dropped off as it was only .325 in 2007.
I’d take Ellsbury over Cabrera hands down every time. It’s not even really that close.
No one is arguing with the fact that Ellsbury is better than Cabrera. But how much better will he be? In the long run, I’m not sure the difference is all that great. Looking at the stats is a little deceiving here… Ellsbury was a more polished college hitter whereas Cabrera was a raw teenager who was pushed through the minor leagues very aggressively and was young for every level. Both have good plate discipline… Ellsbury has more speed but I think ultimately Cabrera will have considerably more power.
So while Ellsbury is a better player than Cabrera, Hughes is SOOO much better than the second player in that Boston deal that Yankees deal blows it out of the water.
Also, it’s a lot harder to find a young pitcher with stuff like Hughes than a young outfielder that can hit for average and steal bases.
December 3rd, 2007 at 10:46 pm
I’m going to go with Ellsbury here. I think the Twins will have enough pitching next year to get by and the following year we will have additional pitching in Robertson, Manship and….. Ellsbury fills several specific needs 1. gold glove calibre defense in CF a premium defensive position 2. High obp guy with speed to lead off. (who else do the Twins have ready in there system to do that …..answer nobody not even close PUNTO???!!!? Casilla???? well maybe but not yet). I am not as concerned about his inability to hit 20 HR as I feel we have enough power in the lineup.
Hughes has plenty of upside. but one thing I have learned from watching the Twins operate and how other clubs operate is that it is better to have 6 or 7 quality starting pitchers which I feel we already have.
Of course IMO the decision of which trade to make depends on quality holes plugged. Lowrie is a quality plug while I am not so sure of Cabrera. But if we get Cabrera would we send him to Texas for a 3b? Or Atlanta for some pitching or a reliever? Then go out and Sign Rowand? Will Boston include Lester or Bucholz? Will the Yanks include another prospect that can prove to be a winner? These questions add up to the sum of what is the most valuable trade. But to stay on the Question of Ellsbury vs Hughes I’d say Ellsbury but not by the widest of margins.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:20 am
Well, it looks like the trade is essentially dead.
What now?
December 4th, 2007 at 12:21 am
Doesn’t Cabrera mean goat herder? Or goat? If it doesn’t, it should. Read this Billy Smith: don’t put a goat on this team.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:39 am
Multiple sources report that it’s increasingly likely that Santana (and Nathan) will remain Twins. Not sure how comfortable I am with that.
December 4th, 2007 at 1:03 am
I like Johan Santana here.
December 4th, 2007 at 2:28 am
Matthew,
In answer to your first question, I’d have to go with Hughes over Ellsbury.
By the time Cabrera is about to make too much money, Revere should be ready. If he looks as good as he did in his first season, he might be in center field when the new stadium opens. Hughes’ weakest pitch is his changeup. Sit him down with Bobby Cuellar during a month of spring training, and you could see Liriano results in Hughes this season and a long spell with Hughes and Liriano at the top of the rotation would be great.
Centerfield is important, but remember, were out 60% of the rotation from the end of the season.
As far as the late night rumors go, I wouldn’t say the end of trade possibilities are here. Bill Smith would be nuts at this point to not do some kind of trade. The Twinkies would have nothing but swirling rumors for half the season, and he risks getting less if Santana gets injured or just 2 more draft picks if he just walks.
Either way I’d hate to see the clubhouse next season, and we still have holes to fill.
I’d also hate to see the lineup that Eric listed earlier. If we have an infield next season with Harris, Punto and Casilla all starting on a regular basis, we’ll win about 60 games. We must have a major upgrade at third base next season. The acqusition of Young about covers the departure of Hunter as far as numbers go. Cabrera covers Hunter’s position, that’s 2 players taking the place of 1 in the lineup. Assuming Harris plays second, that gives us some additional pop, but overall, the lineup from last season with Castillo at the top and Torii in centerfield and Barlett batting ninth is a much better lineup than the one Eric listed, and we couldn’t score any runs with that lineup.
All that being said, I still think that Hughes is something special and until Liriano is ready would probably step to the top of the rotation by March 31 against the Angels. I think he would have more of an overall impact than Ellsbury. So as much as it pains me to make a deal with the devil, unless the Bosox give me Buchholz/Lester and Ellsbury, I’d have to go with the Yankees. Let’s just say we’d better not end there, we need an impact third baseman in a deal for Nathan as well.
And one last thing, with all of the money their saving, they’d better sign Morneau to at least a 5 year deal (with a couple of option years if they’re smart.)
All that being said, the 2:05 update at mlbtraderumors says that it’s confirmed that the Twins are looking at Lester’s medical records and a deal on the table is Lester, Crisp, Masterson and a minor leaguer. I don’t even see Lowrie’s name in the mix, let alone Ellsbury. I’d definitely rather go with the Yankee offer of Hughes, Cabrera and a minor leaguer than that Bosox deal. This would be a worse case scenerio in my mind. This is a massive downgrade, maybe Smith waited too long.
December 4th, 2007 at 2:39 am
Geez I hope that rumor is off. If Smith takes that offer (the implication being that he blew it with the Yanks, his bluff called), then he will have messed up big time.
December 4th, 2007 at 2:54 am
If the trade ends up being Lester/Crisp/Masterson I think we’re in for a rough time in Minnesota until a new GM is found. That’s simply way too little for Johan Santana. If the Sox don’t budge on Ellsbury/Lester, then Bill Smith better get on his hands and knees and buff Hank Steinbrenner’s shriveled ass, or start talking to Los Angeles. I’d rather keep Santana for 2008 and take a risk on Denard Span than trade Santana for Crisp. If that’s what Theo’s offering, then you walk away.
I think Steinbrenner would listen if Smith tried open the door again. The Yankees need Santana–to Boston he’s almost an extravagance. Though I can almost guarantee Schilling or Wakefield collapses into a pile of BenGay-smelling chalk by June.
Preach on, ScottyB
December 4th, 2007 at 3:17 am
To me, the request for Lester’s records could be an indication of three things:
1) Bill Smith is seriously considering trading Johan Santana for Lester/Crisp/Masterson
2) Boston is actually yielding to Smith and throwing Lester in with Ellsbury
3) It’s a token gesture of Smith’s willingness to negotiate
or perhaps Lester and Santana have matching moles and Smith wants to settle an inter-office bet.
Right now, I’d let Hank Steinbrenner ride me around the bases at Yankee Stadium for Hughes and Cabrera.
December 4th, 2007 at 3:34 am
If the Yankees really are out of it, I have a hard time imagining the BoSox being suddenly willing to give us both Lester and Ellsbury — absent interest from NY, our leverage vs. other teams should go down (significantly) and not up, which is what worries me beyond just the fact of losing Hughes-Melky.
December 4th, 2007 at 8:46 am
Not to change the subject but going back to Garza, why does everyone think he was a top 3 pitcher on the Twins? Who even said he’d be guaranteed a spot in the rotation to start the year? It was probably implied since Silva left and the soon departure of Santana, but it’s not like Garza has great career MLB numbers. Plus he has a few attitude issues that he supposedly worked out.
Hughes would definitely help the Twins, but people are acting like Garza was a 13-game winner.
December 4th, 2007 at 9:00 am
Man, this has generated some great discussions. Thanks for everyone who has contributed. I love that we have had so many different opinions on this topic as it is one of the most important ones the Twins have faced in many, many years.
Stepping away from my Ellsbury love affair for a moment, I wanted to comment on the Twins wanting Hughes, Cabrera, and Kennedy from the Yankees. That is kind of steep and I can see why the Yankees wouldn’t want to pull the trigger on that deal (I can’t believe I am defending the Yankees).
But have the Twins thought about including another player to go along with Santana? I would throw the Ellsbury deal aside if we had a chance to get both Hughes AND Kennedy in a deal. I’m a huge fan of Kennedy and would love a rotation that featured Liriano (hopefully), Hughes, Kennedy, Baker, Slowey/Perkins. That is a young, solid staff. For anyone not familiar with Kennedy, here is a brief scouting report I wrote about him:
“Kennedy is yet another great young pitching prospect in the Yankees organization. He has a four seam (88-94 mph) and two seam (a newer pitch at 89 mph) fastball, great command of a plus-changeup, as well as a curve and slider. Kennedy is a very intelligent pitcher choosing to set-up hitters and attack their weaknesses rather than try to overpower them. He has great mechanics and uses this and control to his advantage.”
Sounds like a nice fit to me! As far as who the Twins could include with Santana, that I’m not sure. But I’m sure we could do something that could entice the Yankees at that rate.
December 4th, 2007 at 10:30 am
The Yankee deal is better, even without Kennedy. Smith is a fool not to take the Hughes package. Hughes and Chamberlain are the two best pitching prospects in the universe right now. Ellsbury, if he’s included, will be a good player but hardly a star (say, 280 BA, 8-10 HRs, 70-75 RBIs, 30 SBs). Lester is about an average plus pitcher. The other prospects don’t mach up to a Hughes or even a Horne, another name thrown around.
December 4th, 2007 at 11:26 am
The rank order of the centerpiece players offered is
1) Hughes
2) Ellsbury
3) Buchholz
4) Lester
If we end up with the deal for Jon Lester, after having options for either #1 or #2, Bill Smith should be burned at the stake.
I agree with you Matthew, if we need to throw something else in to get both Hughes and Kennedy, the two of them stepping into our rotation (along with Liriano) would have us settled for years. I might even consider giving up Swarzak or Manship. With the ages of Hughes and Kennedy, we could afford to let one of them go.
Baseball is all about pitching, it’s the reason the Twins have been in contention the last few years. That being said, we still need the upgrade at third as well.
Go back and beg the Yankees.
December 4th, 2007 at 11:29 am
Santana, Nathan, Punto, Marnie Gellner for Cano, Hughes, Cabrera
December 4th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
By the way, the indications are that Ellsbury has changed agents and is now in the Boris camp, which could be the reason the Twins have soured on that option. Even dealing with Boris in the arbitration years is a pain in the butt. That would definitely drive his price up.
I hate Boris and all his clients - they are ruining baseball.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
Yanks would never give up Cano. He may be the second coming of Carew, but with more power. Also he’s great at turning the DP and has good range.
The Boston package is not great…Smith is starting to look dumb.
December 4th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
I don’t know what scares me more: Not getting full value on Santana or the fact that it might not matter anyway if Boston gets him. Can you imagine what it will be like if Buchholtz has a breakthrough out, too? YEESH. If Santana went to the Yankees, I think I’d still be somehow confident that they’d manage to screw it up in the playoffs,anyway.
December 4th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Looks like #4 is going to happen unless Smith wises up or the Red Sox try to lowball Santana on an extension. I honestly don’t understand how the Twins would accept Lester, Crisp, Lowrie and Masterson/Bowden from Boston, and demand Hughes, Melky, Kennedy or Hughes, Melky, Horne and Jackson from the Yankees. This Boston offer is similar to the Kennedy trade that Smith rejected early on in the process (Kennedy, Melky, Horne and Tabata) when they demanded the inclusion of Hughes. Something fishy is going on. I don’t understand why the Twins don’t up the ante and demand Buchholz (equal to Hughes) just as they demanded Hughes from the Yankees.
rant over
December 4th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Is there collusion going on between the BoSox and Twins?…Something does not add up here guys.
December 4th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
From mlbtraderumors.com:
UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 1:15pm: ESPN Peter Gammons says the Twins are trying to decide between a 3-for-1 (Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson) or a 4-for-1 (Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson). No contract negotiations with the Red Sox and Santana’s agent have taken place yet.
December 4th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
From ESPN(3:28):
“The Twins and Red Sox are getting closer to finalizing a Johan Santana deal. Boston has sweetened its offer by adding a fifth player to the the offer — outfield prospect Ryan Kalish, a ninth-round draft pick in the 2006 out of Red Bank Catholic High School (Shrewsbury, N.J.).”
Sounds like quantity over quality =\
December 4th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
I just don’t know what the heck is going on anymore. It seems that after the trades seemingly reached their apex (finally getting either Hughes or Ellsbury like they wanted) everything sounds to be deflating. Now after pressing to get Ellsbury we are backing off for the original deal? Because I always thought that was the opposite of what negotiations are supposed to do.
Now realistically we don’t know what is real and what is just a rumor, but I have to say, this is getting to be too stressful.
December 4th, 2007 at 3:28 pm
To add to all the discussion, let me pose a new question:
“If you were the Twins GM, which of the many rumored trades would you make for Santana?” (name exact players - in fact you can list multiple ideas ranked in your preference)
I personally am going to ponder mine during my 10 mile, 4 1/2 hour commute home in this awesome snow traffic we have here in Minnesota.
December 4th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Boston’s deal sucks. who wants nothing for Santana. anyone with a brain would want Hughes. if the Twins trade Santana to Boston then they are Red Sox fans.
December 4th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
I’ll take a different approach and rank the six major-league ready prospects from the Yankees and Red Sox deals.
1 - Hughes
2 - Buccholz
3 - Kennedy
4 - Ellsbury
5 - Lester
6 - Cabrera
Kennedy you could probably move anywhere between 3 and 5. I put him at 3 because I value good starting pitching much higher than a good outfielder, and I’ve never been particularly impressed with Lester.
No matter where you rank him, the Twins were demanding the guys I had ranked as 1, 3 and 6, while apparently close to accepting a deal centered around the number 5. Just a thought. I’d be interested to see other peoples’ rankings
December 4th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
What about quantity and quality? I’ve been reading both the Sox and Twins boards and I feel that you guys should get to know these prospects a bit better. The most recent deals are Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, Masterson, and Kalish for Santana VS. Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson VS. Hughes, Cabrera, and another prospect. First of all, Cabrera isn’t that good. Ah, that felt good to say. After that it’s Hughes, the best pitching prospect in the game, along with a third prospect. Meanwhile, the Sox are willing to part with a number of their top prospects, all raised with the same organizational philosophy. The Sox have drafted with an eye towards not only on base skills, but rather leadership and a strong work ethic. Every offseason, top prospects take part in a two week Rookie Program to introduce them to all the facets of the major leagues, something few clubs do. Just remember, we try to produce smart prospects, so you definitely get your money’s worth.
http://www.soxprospects.com/players/ellsbury-jacoby.htm
Ellsbury is just something special, that’s all I can say. I managed to catch his first major league steal, and let me say, that man can run. Ellsbury was 11-11 in steals including the playoffs, something people neglect to mention. Not only will the man run, but he’s a smart baserunner that can cause all sorts of trouble in front of Morneau and Mauer.
http://www.soxprospects.com/players/masterson-justin.htm
There’s been a lot of value placed on the hard sinkerballer, Masterson, with the recent success of Wang, Webb, and heck, Lowe. Has the turf slowed down yet?
http://www.soxprospects.com/players/lowrie-jed.htm
Pretty much a major league ready switch hitting middle infielder with doubles power, a good eye, a strong work ethic, and “outstanding plate discipline, in true Red Sox form his best attribute may be his ability to work pitchers for good at bats”
http://www.soxprospects.com/players/kalish-ryan.htm
He’s only 19 but he’s 8th on our top prospects list, take that as you wish.
The centerpiece of the deal is most likely going to be Jon Lester. A lot of Red Sox fans, including myself, have been sort of down on him because of his continued control problems but we sometimes forget that his growth as a player has been stunted by cancer. Lester was once the top pitching prospect in the Red Sox organization, ahead of Papelbon and Buchholz. Before his cancer, Lester was ranked above Hughes by Baseball America. Meanwhile, Crisp is a cheap center fielder who, shedding the Sox hype, is still one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, a worthy successor to Hunter’s throne. Despite a couple of down years with injuries, I have complete confidence that if we end up trading Ellsbury, Crisp will climb closer to his career averages.
I’m biased, so be it, but with the current proposed deal of Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, Masterson, and Kalish…while I honestly don’t feel as if we’re giving up much, because we’re dealing from positions of strength, I think that it is a strong offer that surpasses the Yankees’. You get three major league ready players to fill up a middle infield slot, CF, and a SP role, a sinkerballer who the Sox are very high on, and pile of raw potential. The only other possibility is playing the full year out with Santana with no chance at trading him midseason.
December 4th, 2007 at 4:07 pm
Eric,
I think I’d flip-flop 3(Ellsbury) and 4(Kennedy). I’d still rather give up an additional Twins propspect (Swarzak, Manship, Blackburn, Duensing, Bonser) and beg Cashman and the Yanks for Santana and a prospect of their chosing - from that list or comparable, for Hughes, Cabrera and Kennedy. The Bosox keep adding pieces of junk to the pile, nothing proven. I don’t want a deal with Lester as the centerpiece. Hughes is by far the best prospect with the highest ceiling. Unless the Sox through Buchholtz’s name out there in the deal, forget it. I want Hughes.
December 4th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
I say fuck all of them and just sign Santana and give him the money he deserves. I wish Pohlad wasn’t such a fuckin cheap skate. The state gives them money for a stadium and they can’t even sign their best player.
Pardon my language.
December 4th, 2007 at 4:17 pm
“The Boston Red Sox have completed the framework of a deal with the Minnesota Twins that will send Johan Santana from the Twins to the Red Sox for Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Jed Lowrie and Ryan Kalish.
This information comes from KNBR via devoted Red Sox fan/MLB columnist Daniel Rathman.
Says Rathman:
Some details and kinks still need to be worked out, but there’s little reason to expect that this won’t get done by tonight or tomorrow morning.
Talks with Santana’s agent about an extension could begin tomorrow. Indications are that the Sox will start with an offer of five-years, $100 million and go from there.”
Don’t feel as if you’ve been swindled, it only seems that way because the Sox are dealing from a surplus while New York is seriously overhyping Melky Cabrera and overvaluing the extra prospects. Philip Hughes was the prize but Lester, before his cancer, was rated above Hughes and people are continually impressed by his maturity and strength despite his control problems. You’ve seen Coco Crisp at his best in Cleveland and his glove is one of the best in the league, a worthy replacement in center field. If we had traded Ellsbury, I would have been completely fine having Crisp start for us. Jed Lowrie is a major league ready middle infielder with doubles power who battles at the plate. You’re getting a tough out in him along with Crisp’s speed and improved baserunning skills (28/34). Masterson is a hard sinkerballer, something which has been valued with the recent success of Wang and Webb, and about a year or two away. Kalish is only 19 but he’s on most Sox top 10 lists. Don’t feel swindled, you’ve gotten some hard nosed players that have all been raised within a smart organization. The Red Sox have been drafting with an eye for work ethic and leadership skills, along with a good OBP, ever since Epstein came to power. I admit it looks like a steal to the Sox, but if this report is actually true, then you’ve gotten some talent in this 5-1 deal. Check out scouting reports at http://www.soxprospects.com/ .
December 4th, 2007 at 5:15 pm
The rank order of the centerpiece players offered is
1) Hughes
2) Ellsbury
3) Buchholz
4) Lester
Uhh… Buchholz >>> Ellsbury, and maybe better than Hughes. Unfortunately, the Red Sox have no intentions of parting with him.
December 4th, 2007 at 5:27 pm
I agree with you on this one Nick. I would much rather have Buchholz than Hughes as I think his stuff is better and is just electric on the mound. He’s already proven how great he can be with his brief stint in the Majors.
So if we can get a deal with Buchholz, I say take it. However if we can finagle both Hughes and Kennedy in a deal, that would have to be the way to go.
Of course now there are reports that the Angels are getting involved since they lost Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers. Brandon Wood’s name was mentioned in the deal. It would be nice to get a third baseman/shortstop however he has a lot of improving to do as he swings and misses WAY too much.
December 4th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
I see Brandon Wood putting up Bill Hall type numbers in the big leagues. Not bad, but not a star. I’d be interested if the deal included Adenhart and Willits though.
December 4th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Crisp/Lester/Masterson/Lowrie/Kalish at least proves that Boston really wants Santana–they’re offering up four of their best prospects there. But Ellsbury/Lester almost seems a better idea from the Sox stand point–you sort of throw out the baby with the bathwater the more of your other top prospects you give up. Do they really think Ellsbury and Lester are going to be more valuable to them in the coming years than Johan Santana would be? Their adherence to Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz seems to be drifting into the realm of absurdity here.
And now with the Tigers getting Cabrera and Willis, I think it’s even more imperative that Smith make the best deal possible. Terry Ryan should be on the phone with his ass right now guiding him back to common sense.
December 4th, 2007 at 8:31 pm
Could we beg for Brandon Inge since the pussy cats don’t need him any more? He could play third and be Gardy’s reserve catcher.
December 4th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
I bet Uncle Carl is jealous - with the Marlins trading Willis and Cabrera, their payroll will be around $10M. They have Miguel Olivo at $2M, Kevin Gregg at $575K and Hanley Ramerez at $400K, everyone else is making minimum $380K.
December 5th, 2007 at 12:41 am
Um, hey, since there are so many people on this blog, I gotta ask. Does anyone here work at a bank where I can get a loan to buy some good players for my baseball team?
I’ll pay you back, really, in a few years. We’re going to charge out the you-know-what for concessions at the new ballpark. Look at me, I love eating hot dogs.
You see, the guy running the team is a tightwad and doesn’t want to pay the best pitcher in baseball market value. So, I thought maybe I could get a loan from… someone? Whipps, you do loans?
Or maybe I could go on ebay and sell some rich nutjob advertising on the baggie…
December 5th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
From mlbtraderumors.com:
Minnesota has initiated talks for a three-way blockbuster with the Twins and A’s. Here’s how it would go down:
Mets send Jose Reyes, Kevin Mulvey, and Hector Pellot to A’s
A’s send Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson to Mets
A’s send Dan Haren to Twins
Twins send Johan Santana to Mets
Mets get Johan Santana, Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson
A’s get Jose Reyes and Kevin Mulvey
Twins get Dan Haren and Hector Pellot
The source says Haren is exactly the type of player the Twins want for Santana, a cheap frontline starter. It’s known the Mets would hate to deal Reyes but they would get some value beyond Santana. Billy Beane is happy because he gets Reyes for one more year than he had Haren plus longtime favorite Mulvey. And, he’s out of Crosby’s contract.
I don’t know if I like this.
December 5th, 2007 at 4:25 pm
mlbtraderumors says a 3-way Santana deal is rumored - Twins, Mets and A’s.
Twins put up Santana
A’s put up Haren, Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson
Mets put up Reyes, Kevin Mulvey and Hector Pellot
Mets get Santana, Johnson and Crosby
Twins get Haren and Pellot
A’s get Reyes and Mulvey
I like Haren and he moves to the top of the Twinks rotation. But I think this deal needs work. It’s a start, but Pellot is a throw-in and it fills none of the Twins needs other than a replacement for Santana.
December 5th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
That is a horrible deal. The only way I’ll be ok with that is if WE get Reyes.
December 5th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
A’s/Mets/Twins deal sucks the o-ring.
Does anybody care to speculate what the Mariners would offer for Santana? Adam Jones+, etc., etc.? ScottyB?
December 5th, 2007 at 6:09 pm
The only names I’ve seen so far are Jones (22 yo five tool centerfielder) (he’s supposedly the ‘next Torii Hunter’) and Brandon Morrow (23 yo right-hander). Morrow has a fastball that touches 98-99 and lives in the 93-96 mph range. Control is an issue, but he has a splitter, slider and curve. Maybe he can learn Bobby Cuellar’s circle change.
That speculation came from Ken Rosenthal. He also wonders is Mariners would be willing to pay Santana and whether he’d be willing to waive the NTC to sign with the Mariners.
December 5th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
Update from LENIII at Strib:
December 5th, 2007 at 6:23 pm
Lets try this again:
“Don’t have much time because I must write for the ink version, but here’s what I know about clubs interested in dealing for Johan Santana:
Mets: Interested
Yankees: Still interested
Angels: Not Interested, but have talked to Twins about other players. Twins keep hearing that the Angels MIGHT change their minds on Santana.
Boston: Still interested
Texas: Interested, but would Santana go there?
Seattle: Interested, but would Santana go there?
It appears unlikely a deal will be reached this week.
That’s all for now…. ”
Sorry
December 5th, 2007 at 6:26 pm
From Mark Hale at NY Post:
Johan Santana’s agent, Peter Greenberg, spoke to a small group of reporters in the lobby today. He said, “[We’re] just waiting and watching ‘SportsCenter’ and reading what you guys are writing. “Everything seems to change on a daily basis.” As to why a deal for his client hadn’t been completed yet, Greenberg said, “I don’t know. I thought it would have been done already. I think everybody did. I guess Bill [Smith, Twins GM] hasn’t gotten what he feels is fair value.” Asked if the Yankees were out of it, he said: “That’s we’re reading.” Asked if the Mets were in it, he said: “That’s what we’re hearing.” The agent would “rather not say at this point” if Santana has a preferred destination.
December 5th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Three Way Deal A TOTAL FABRICATION:
Again from the NY Post:
“OK before it goes any further, let us kill a rumor that went from gestation at somebody’s computer to rampant chatter in the hallways at the Winter Meetings.
The rumor was a three-way trade with many participants, but that essentially came down to Dan Haren going to Minnesota, Jose Reyes going to Oakland, and Johan Santana going to the Mets.
Omar Minaya reiterated that Reyes is not being traded, which instantly doomed the idea. So did the fact that Minaya and Oakland GM Billy Beane have exchanged phone messages and e-mails, but have not talked at these meetings as of early tonight.
But for the final word, we offer this gem from Beane: “I rarely comment on trades publicly, but let me comment on this one: It is an absolute, total fabrication.”
December 5th, 2007 at 7:14 pm
On the LENIII story - I’m curious who are the Twins and Angels talking about if not Santana. They have a surplus of just about everything - Starters, IF and OF.
Going through their extras is like going through a candy shop, just don’t know what they want from us.
Let’s see, I’d like Kendrick, Wood, Adenhart, Weaver, Willits and maybe a little Matthews on the side. How about Harris, Punto, Tyner …
I had a hardy gafaw last night going to the Twins site and looking at our current depth chart. Centerfielder Jason Tyner, infield Morneau, Punto, Harris and Buscher. Compare that to the Tigers new lineup with Jacque Jones batting ninth.
And we only have four starting pitchers listed - Santana, Bonser, Slowey and Baker. When we trade Santana for nobody special, oh boy. I can’t wait.
I’m going to throw up now. I’ll be back later.
December 6th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Hey Twins management, Here’s a novel idea: Keep Santana.
December 6th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
One last thought on the Santana trade front. Bill Smith will obviously still trade Johan, but I think he made the right move in holding off during the winter meetings.
With the spotlight off and without the hourly scrutiny of the press, Smith can have more quiet time to get the deal right instead of jumping at a deal, just to jump. The deal will be done before Spring Training, maybe by the end of the year, but I think we won’t hear about it until the day it goes down (after the team he is traded to has a chance to agree on a new contract.)
So it looks like this trade front will go quiet for a while. Take your time Bill - and get it right.
December 7th, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Yes, indeed, get it right Mr. Bill. It may well be that Santana hangs around until spring training. The bet here is that he doesn’t go the Red Sox. Epstein is not willing to give up both Ellbury and Bucholz. Forget Lester, his stuff is pretty average. The Yankees can offer the best deal since they have so many top-tier young pitching prospects. Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy, Horne, Marquez…and then there are the position players like Tabata (another Manny Ramirez?), Allen Jackson (another Granderson?), Gardner…Seattle could put together a nice offer and the Angels as well.
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