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Eerie Similarities

It’s 25 games into the season and it’s time to do some comparisons.  A year ago at this time, the Twins were 14-11, with a mainly veteran starting rotation.  Boof Bonser is the sole remaining pitcher from that rotation.  The others, Johan Santana, Carlos Silva, Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson, were on their way out of town by trade, free agency or waiver wire. 

Let’s look at some statistics from the first 25 games.  The Twins had hoped to upgrade their offense this season, and many expected a lot of 8-7 and 10-9 games.  In over half of this year’s games, the Twins have scored 3 or fewer runs.  The Twins are 4-9 in those games, including 4 times they’ve been shut out.  They are actually 2-1 in games they’ve scored 3 runs, so 2-8 in games with 2 runs or less.  Over one-quarter of their games have been decided by one run.  In those games the Twins are 4-3.  But when they give up six runs or more, they are 1-7.  That’s nearly one-third of their starts, and that is scary.  When they give up fewer than six runs, they are a very respectable 10-7.

This year, with an overall 11-14 record, the Twins have already used six pitchers in the rotation.  Besides Bonser, the Twins have used youngsters Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, and veteran Livan Hernandez.  Liriano has clearly shown that he needs more time to heal, both physically and mentally from the strains of Tommy John surgery.  He needs to find control of his fastball, because that is the key to any pitcher’s repertoire.  It is what sets up his other pitches.  Of the other youngsters, Baker and Blackburn have looked solid, and Slowey has looked okay (other than his injury).  Bonser has also pitched well, but with little run support. Hopefully Baker’s injury in Saturday’s game, will be minor, because we can’t afford to lose him for long.

There has been much praise for Hernandez, as he had compiled a 3-0 record with a 3.55 ERA before Sunday’s loss.  Two games ago, I started noticing some changes in Hernandez, and today my concerns were justified.  Hernandez has in his last three starts, pitched fewer innings, with more pitches and hits per appearance than his first three starts.  Some people are writing this start off as a single bad one.  I say that he may be at a crossroads already.  You might say that I’m rushing to judgment, but then, I’m not calling for his head after one poor start.  I’m just saying we need to watch his next few starts to see which direction he is going.  What if I told you that Livan’s stats for this season were 6 games started, 3 wins, 39 innings pitched, 35 hits, 15 earned runs and 6 walks and 17 strikeouts.  You’d probably say that sounds about right.  Well, that’s close, but not exact.  That is where the eerie similarities come in.  Those statistics are from last season and belong to Ramon Ortiz.  At this point last season, I can remember fans clamoring to sign Ortiz to a 3-year deal.  He would be our hedge against Santana and Silva leaving.  Hernandez’s stats through six starts are 3 wins, 35.2 innings pitched, 45 hits, 20 earned runs, 7 walks and 13 strikeouts.  Hernandez’s ERA had ballooned to 5.05 after Sunday’s game.  Ortiz had a 3.23 ERA at the same juncture last season.  That means that Hernandez has given up more runs, hits and walks in fewer innings than Ortiz, and that’s why I’m saying Hernandez is at a crossroads.  Ortiz had only 4 more starts as a Twin, before being banished to mop-up work in the bullpen, and an eventual trade to Colorado.  His average innings per start dropped from nearly 7 to just over 4, and his ERA jumped over 2 runs per game, from 3.23 to 5.75.  If Hernandez is unable to right the ship over his next several starts, it may be time to turn to Rochester.  What are our options there?  Phillip Humber, with his 5.24 ERA, seems to need more seasoning.  At this point I would say our top 3 options are lefty Glen Perkins (5 games started, with a shutout and a 2.89 ERA), lefty Brian Duensing (5 games started with a 2.40 ERA), and righthander Kevin Mulvey (4 games started and a sterling 1.16 ERA).  Neither Duensing or Mulvey is currently on the 40 man roster, but there are 2 slots available.  With his major league experience, the likely choice would be Perkins.

The Twins now find themselves tied for 3rd, 4th and 5th places in the Central, 3.5 games back and below .500 by 3 games.  They haven’t taken advantage of winning against some tough teams that are playing poorly, or even beating a poor team like Texas.  They could easily have the same record as last season, 14-11 at this point (or even better).  In that case, they would only be a half-game behind the White Sox (or maybe a little ahead) and playing for first place this week, instead of struggling to get back to even.  Hang on folks, there is still a long way to go.

This entry was posted on Sunday, April 27th, 2008 at 10:13 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.