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The Bard’s Room
Regression
Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times wrote a piece a few days back about regression to the mean. Aside from learning about an eccentric Victorian scientist, Sir Francis Galton, I also noticed something relevant to the Sox. Studeman discusses Tangotiger’s 2007 Marcel Projections, which predict player performance using only regression to the mean (and are remarkably accurate given the simplicity of the method), and listed the players most likely to improve or decline in 2007 based on them.
In terms of OPS, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome are predicted to have the 5th and 6th (respective) largest declines in the majors next season. Now, the fact that Dye could regress after what was almost certainly his career year shouldn’t be shocking, but it is important to remind ourselves just how out of line his 2006 season was. If we go into next year expecting him to hit .315/.385/.622 again, we’re going to be disappointed. That Dye will be 33 in 2007 will only hinder matters.
Speaking of age, Thome will be 36 for most of next season, and it’s really only a matter of time before he begins to decline (especially given that he’s a beefy slugger and not the lithe, athletic type). On the other hand, I don’t think Thome’s 2006 was even nearly as fluky as Dye’s; after all, Big Jim is a career .282/.409/.565 hitter. Furthermore, his stats probably received a boost from playing half his games in The Cell for the first time, and that’s not going to change. But how many more years of excellent production can we expect out of him? Two? Three? And that’s not even considering the (decent) possibility of an injury.
All of this serves to point out two things. First, we can expect some regression from the heart of the Sox’ batting order next year. And secondly, the window for winning with our current core is not all that large, especially given the incredibly talented (and mostly young) teams in Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detroit. The first point makes me extremely nervous about Kenny Williams’ offseason inactivity regarding our left-field problem, while the second point makes me a tad bit warier of the Brandon McCarthy deal.
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5 Responses to “Regression”
January 8th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
Hmmm…I’d like to see a multivariate analysis…essentially, this projection says players that have had 3-4 good years, followed by a bad one, are likely to have a better year, and vice versa. Variables as to how frequently a batter will get on base include whether a righty or lefty is pitching, whether or not there are baserunners on base (and where), and even more minute measures as the score during the AB, e.g. Albert Pujols will see different pitches if the Cardinals are leading 3-1 than if the Cardinals are trailing 3-1…and also which inning the AB is in; of course, splits attempt to address this, but even these cannot address things such as changes in your opponent’s pitching staff, wind direction, humidity, etc….
January 9th, 2007 at 2:00 am
I wonder if the projections take into account players in their contract years coughcough Adrian Beltre coughcough.
I have confidence in Thome’s ability as a hitter to maintain similar or better numbers, but I have no faith in his back/elbow/pretty much his whole body.
I’ve heard talk of potentially using Toby Hall to not only spell AJ but to spell Thome as well. This may pay off in the long run; it would give Hall more chances to hit and get in a groove and it would give rest to two of our hitters who clearly needed some time off last year.
January 9th, 2007 at 10:26 am
I agree 100% that the Sox should give Thome days off, especially against lefties (against whom he is a mere mortal), and as a general precaution to keep him healthy over the long-haul. The only problem is that the Sox lack enough righty bench players. If Hall bats for Thome, then Pierzynski is still catching, and he’s even worse than Thome against southpaws. They could use Ozuna as a DH against lefties (even if he doesn’t fit the typical mold), allowing Hall to catch, but then the Sox are stuck with Mackowiak or (gasp) Podsednik in left. I think the Sox could improve themselves mightily by signing Craig Wilson — a career .296/.395/.543 hitter against lefties who could platoon with Mackowiak in left and/or spell Thome at DH.
January 9th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
Jeeves and Jake alluded to another shortcoming of trying to predict a player’s success in a season–roster moves. If someone, such as Thome, as an off-year, then the GM is likely to acquire or promote someone to rest an aging star…or at least be able to move him down in the batting order.
Podsednik is predicted–with 86% accuracy and if I am interpreting it correctly–of hitting 6 HR’s and hitting .267 in 494 AB’s. As far as I know, they formula looks at past data over the year’s, incorporates some sort of trend analysis, possibly with how other hitter’s have changed over time, to get these projections. But Podsednik may not even start 100 games this year…and has he ever hit that many homers in a season?
January 14th, 2007 at 11:21 am
[…] MVN blogger Jake Berlin in “The Bard’s Room,” the White Sox site here on MVN, recently posted “Regression,” referencing Tangotiger’s 2007 Marcel Projections. Essentially, one can download projections on how hitters and pitchers will do during the 2007 season. […]
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