MVN - Most Valuable Network

The Future

Each year, various baseball writers, bloggers, and websites rank prospects, and now that most of the 2007 lists are out, I thought I’d compile rankings for the Sox’ youngsters. Combining the rankings of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, and Top Prospect Alert (the most reputable sources), below are the Sox’ top prospects for 2007. I’ve only included players who received a vote from more than one of the individual lists.

Furthermore, it’s worth noting that I had to fudge things a little bit: because some of the rankings were done before the Brandon McCarthy and/or Freddy Garcia trades, they didn’t really reflect the true overall picture. I attempted to remedy this by guessing where each list would include the missing players, using the rankings of other teams or those from previous years. This admittedly isn’t the greatest method, but I didn’t really have any other options.

Lastly, some notes about the stats below. If a player spent time at more than one level, I combined the stats, unless the vast majority of his time was spent in one place, in which case I just went with those stats. If a player’s birthday falls during the baseball season, I either went with the age he will be for most of 2007, or in a few cases listed both to emphasize that he’ll spend a significant amount of time at each age. In general, I picked the stats most useful in projecting future performance.

Without further ado, here they are:

1. John Danks, LHP

Average Ranking:1.5
Age During 2007: 22
Minor League Career Stats: 4.20 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.27 K/9, 1.01 HR/9, 3.32 BB/9
2006 Stats: 4.24 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.41 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9 at AA/AAA
Notes: Good curveball, and decent changeup. Gets hit hard upon each promotion, but then tends to settle down.

2. Ryan Sweeney, CF/RF

Average Ranking: 2
Age During 2007: 22
Minor League Career Stats: .295/.352/.402, 53% SB rate
2006 Stats: .296/.350/.452, 13 HR, 7 SB (50%) at AAA
Notes: According to Baseball America, the best hitter for average and the best defensive outfielder among Sox prospects. His power has developed slowly, and might plateau at only a medicore level, something that could be mitigated to a large extent if he proves he can stay in centerfield.

3. Josh Fields, 3B

Average Ranking: 2.75
Age During 2007: 25
Minor League Career Stats: .279/.354/.458, 76% SB rate
2006 Stats: .305/.379/.515, 19 HR, 28 SB (85%) at AAA
Notes: Strikeouts are still (and may always) be a bit of a problem, but has turned himself into a well-rounded player. 2006 proved a lot for him.
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4. Gio Gonzalez, LHP

Average Ranking: 4
Age During 2007: 21
Minor League Career Stats: 3.63 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.31 K/9, 0.87 HR/9, 3.92 BB/9
2006 Stats: 4.66 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.66 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.71 BB/9 at AA
Notes: Terrific curveball, but has serious control issues. Still quite young, and left-handed.
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5. Lance Broadway, RHP

Average Ranking: 5.25
Age During 2007: 23
Minor League Career Stats: 3.22 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.32 K/9, 0.59 HR/9, 2.55 BB/9
2006 Stats: 2.74 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.47 K/9, 0.58 HR/9, 2.33 BB/9 at AA
Notes: Control pitcher without great stuff. Maintains his pitches deep into games, and doesn’t walk many batters. If everything goes right for him, he could be a right-handed Mark Buehrle. If not, at best a 4th or 5th starter.

6. Charlie Haeger, RHP

Average Ranking: 6.75
Age During 2007: 23
Minor League Career Stats: 3.69 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.91 K/9, 0.42 HR/9, 4.1 BB/9
2006 Stats: 3.07 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.88 K/9, 0.48 HR/9, 4.13 BB/9 at AAA
Notes: Like all knuckleballers, extremely difficult to predict long-term (or short-term, for that matter). Walks batters (it comes with the territory), but almost never gives up the long ball.
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7. Kyle McCulloch, RHP

Average Ranking: 7.25
Age During 2007: 22
Minor League Career Stats: 3.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.55 K/9, 8.81 HR/9, 3.78 BB/9
2006 Stats: 3.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.55 K/9, 8.81 HR/9, 3.78 BB/9 at Rookie/A+
Notes: Almost exactly like Broadway, but nearly two years younger and with a terrific changeup.
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8. Aaron Cunningham, LF

Average Ranking: 8.25
Age During 2007: 21
Minor League Career Stats: .301/.381/.460, 63% SB rate
2006 Stats: .305/.386/.496, 11 HR, 19 SB (66%) at A
Notes: Played all three outfield spots in 2006, but is not considered a good fielder and will almost certainly end up in left-field. However, does have the raw tools to play center, so perhaps could put things together and have a higher value.
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9. Chris Carter, 1B

Average Ranking: 10
Age During 2007: 20
Minor League Career Stats: .277/.363/.506, 54 % SB rate
2006 Stats: .273/.373/.522, 16 HR, 4 SB (50%) at Rookie/A
Notes: Huge (6′4″, 220) slugger with immense power. Has played some third base, but will no doubt end up as a full-time first-baseman, and not a good one at that.
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10. Nick Masset, RHP

Average Ranking: 11.5
Age During 2007: 24/25 (May 17)
Minor League Career Stats: 4.53 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.37 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.25 BB/9
2006 Stats: 3.67 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.19 K/9, 0.31 HR/9, 3.75 BB/9 at AA/AAA
Notes: Throws hard, with heavy sink on his fastball. Has trouble against lefties. Started for much of his time in the majors, but switched to relief mid-2006.
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11. Matt Long, RHP

Average Ranking: 14.25
Age During 2007: 23
Minor League Career Stats: 8.13 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 5.42 K/9, 1.36 HR/9, 3.52 BB/9
2006 Stats: 8.02 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 5.35 K/9, 1.34 HR/9, 3.48 BB/9 at A
Notes: Throws very hard, but that hasn’t translated into success yet.

12. Adam Russell, RHP

Average Ranking: 18
Age During 2007: 24
Minor League Career Stats: 3.61 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.28 K/9, 0.69 HR/9, 3.83 BB/9
2006 Stats: 3.43 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6.49 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.49 BB/9 at A+/AA
Notes: “Needs better secondary stuff,” according to John Sickels.
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13. Lucas Harrell, RHP

Average Ranking: 18.75
Age During 2007: 21/22 (June 3)
Minor League Career Stats: 3.82 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.11 K/9, 0.54 HR/9, 5.12 BB/9
2006 Stats: 2.45 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.87 K/9, 0.29 HR/9, 4.32 BB/9 at A+
Notes: Ditto. Good fastball, but little else.

Overall Impressions

Whereas as recently as 2001 Baseball America rated the Sox’ minor league system as the best in the majors, now its clearly mediocre (rated 14th this past year). The system is the 13th youngest in baseball (or 18th oldest, depending on how you look at it), and it is generally bereft of top-level talent. The list above is pitcher-heavy, which is fitting: the system lacks many decent position player prospects. Going for pitching, as Kenny and Co. have done, could pay off big, but pitching prospects (if there even is such a thing) do not tend to see their potential realized even remotely as often as position players do, so it’s a big bet. And even the Sox’ best prospects aren’t superstar caliber. John Sickels writes, “This system has thinned out considerably, as even the best prospects have a questionmark or two, with lack of positional depth a serious issue.” While trades have played a role in gutting the system, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus thinks the team’s drafting strategy is even more to blame: “The White Sox system is a bad one, as the drop off in talent after the first five prospects is sizeable. While Kenny Williams’ trading ways have played a factor, some of the most boring drafts in recent memory play a larger one.” Given the state of the system, the Sox would be wise to spend their draft picks in upcoming years on position players with high ceilings.

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 14th, 2007 at 10:26 pm and is filed under Minor Leagues/Prospects. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.