MVN - Most Valuable Network

No Longer Farnsworthless?

It seemed like a story that we have seen many times before on this stage. Kyle Farnsworth enters a game with a sizable lead and proceeds to put the outcome in serious doubt. As we watched, we rolled our eyes as Kyle reverted back to form, allowing an inherited runner to score and putting runners at second and third with nobody out in the 7th inning of Saturday’s game against the Tigers. With the score now 5-2 and Renteria, Rodriguez, and Polanco due up, it seemed like it was only moments before a typical meltdown for the Yankees maddeningly inconsistent reliever.

Yet this game, and this season, is different. Farnsy got Renteria on a soft liner, but went to 3-1 on Pudge. With a base open, the old Kyle would have given up on the at bat and walked him. Instead, he recovered to strikeout Pudge and got Polanco on a popup. For some fans, it was just a lucky escape for a poor reliever. For those who have been paying close attention to Farnsworth’s pitching this season, it is indicative of his better approach and increased confidence on the mound. To gain a better understanding of exactly why Farnsy has looked so much better this season, we can look at both his statistics and approach.

Statistics: Hitters are batting .284/.329/.507 off Kyle, which represents numbers considerably higher than his career norms in both AVG and SLG. So why exactly is his ERA at 3.00 and his ERA+ 136? Furthermore, his K/9 is at 9.00, which is considerably lower than all of his effective seasons. So what is going on? I think the key lies in his 3.60 K/BB ratio. Kyle has always had good stuff, but his fear of the zone led to high walk totals. The fact that he has lost strikeouts and still has the second best K/BB of his career is telling. He is allowing more hits, and for more power, but there are fewer runners on when he allows his extra base hits. He has a stellar  LOB% (percentage of runners allowed that did not score) of 97.8. By spreading his hits out over multiple innings, he has been able to avoid the big inning and minimize damage when he gets in trouble. Furthermore, the hits that he has allowed thus far may have been aided by a bit of luck, as he has a BAbip (batting average on balls in play) of .326 compared to a career number of .296. Although there is plenty of variation of BAbip for a pitcher, it can be used in conjunction with line drive rate and groundball rate to provide some decent indicators. Farnsworth has a career low 14.6% fly ball rate paired with a very high 45.8% ground ball rate, for the third highest GB/FB ratio of his career, at 1.22. Those numbers should suggest a lower BAbip, as fewer line drives should equal fewer hits (The Hardball Times says about 75% of line drives are hits). This suggests that Kyle has allowed plenty of groundballs with eyes (although I am unsure as to whether his high number of home runs is accepted as a contributing factor to high BAbip). All in all, the numbers suggest that Kyle’s better control has aided him immeasurably, while pointing to a bit of unluckiness that suggests his numbers could be even better. One caveat is that he has allowed 3 of 4 inherited runners to score, which indicates that it may be more prudent to use Kyle to start innings rather than to put out fires.

Approach: Anyone who has watched Farnsy pitch this season has seen a marked difference in approach from him. He is attacking the zone with his fastball, getting ahead in the count and making his solid slider play up. His increased ability to throw that slider on the edges of the plate for strikes then expands the zone on the hitter, frequently forcing hitters to chase his high 90’s fastball out of the zone, as we saw Pudge do on Saturday. It has really always been about confidence with Kyle. His problem was always a lack of trust in his stuff, and his newfound belief in his ability to get hitters out in the strikezone has led to fewer walks and more hitters chasing borderline pitches. Although he is not preventing contact as much as he has in the past, he has shown some calm under pressure and effectively pitched out of trouble.

Ultimately, both the numbers and his improved approach give me little reason to doubt that Kyle Farnsworth has actually made at least some progress at this point in his career. Maybe Joe Girardi knew exactly what he was talking about when he said he could fix him. Do I trust him in the eight inning of a big game once Joba goes to the rotation? Probably not, and I would be likely to advocate Ross Ohlendorf as the successor to Chamberlain. But one thing is certain- Kyle Farnsworth is worthless no longer.

Game 39: Tigers at Yankees (Postponed)

Detroit Tigers (16-22) vs. New York Yankees (19-19)

Nate Robertson (1-4, 6.64) vs. Andy Pettitte (3-3, 3.77)

May. 11, 2008 @ 1:05 p.m. @ Comerica Park

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E
Detroit											0	0	0
New York											0	0	0

Preview:

After a strong showing by Darrell Rasner, the Yankee rotation is starting to show some stability. Rasner helped the Yankees back to .500 and today, the Yankees look to Andy Pettitte to pull them into the black.

Pettitte is coming off a strong pitching performance in Cleveland where he went 6+ and only gave up 2 runs. He is opposed by Nate Robertson, who somehow beat the Yankees on May 1st despite the fact that he sucks.

With a lefty pitching and Betemit on the DL, I would expect to see Morgan Ensberg and possibly Shelley Duncan in RF or 1B, probably RF as Giambi is starting to come around.

UPDATE: It is raining and the tarp is on the field. If the game is rained out, the Yankees will not need a fifth starter this week and can skip Kei Igawa. As much as I hate days without baseball, a rainout may be for the best.

UPDATE: The game has been postponed due to rain. Kei Igawa should catch the next flight to Scranton.

Betemit: First, pink eye, and now…

Wilson Betemit is back on the DL with an injury that Joe Girardi, during the game today, said he didn’t think was “that serious”. Running the bases after his double in the 4th, he pulled up lame and was wincing in pain on his way to 2nd.

Via Pete Abe:

Wilson Betemit will be placed on the 15-day disabled list tomorrow. Alberto Gonzalez has been summoned from Scranton.

And about Jonathan Albaladejo, he has a sprain of the “ulnar collateral ligament and a strain of the posterial capsule.” I’m not a doctor or anything, but that doesn’t sound good.

The injuries just keep piling up.

Game 38: Yankees at Tigers (W)

Yankees (18-19) vs. Tigers (16-21)

Darrell Rasner (1-0, 3.00) vs. Jeremy Bonderman (2-3, 4.17)

May 10, 2008 @ 3:40 p.m. @ Comerica Park

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E
Yankees	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0		5	9	0
Tigers	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0		2	7	0
Darrell Rasner (W, 2-0) Jeremy Bonderman (L,2-3) Mariano Rivera (S, 10)

Preview: The Yankees look to bounce back from last night’s loss by sending Darrell Rasner to the mound for his second start of the year. Rasner looked very solid in his first trip to the hill, and the Yankees hope to see similar performances from him as they wait for Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to return from injury and ineffectiveness. The Yankees have yet to defeat the Tigers this season, losing all four contests against the struggling Detroit club. One of Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman’s two wins came against the Bombers on April 30th, as he battled back from early ineffectiveness to toss 7.2 innings of two run ball. The Yankees need to force Bonderman to throw a lot of pitches and get into the weak Tigers bullpen.

In the field, Wilson Betemit gets the nod again at third base. Considering his misadventures last night, I am a bit surprised that Morgan Ensberg is not getting another chance. It seems that they are committed to Betemit, as they even gave him the shot at a lefty starter last night. I wonder if Ensberg will be the one to go once A-Rod returns. On another note, Jason Giambi and Robinson Cano seem to be slowly recovering from their early season slumps. Hopefully they can continue to improve while carrying the Yankees to a victory and a .500 record.

***************************************************

Recap: The Yankees broke the Tigers’ hold over them and climbed back to .500 behind another strong outing from Darrell Rasner. Rasner allowed 2 runs in 6+ innings, one of which was given up by Kyle Farnsworth after Rasner allowed a leadoff single in the seventh. Following a first inning homer off the bat of rookie Matt Joyce, Darrell allowed just 3 more hits and one walk while throwing only 87 pitches. Farnsworth had a rough start to his inning, allowing a single and a run scoring double, which seemed to signal that Kyle’s recent improvement was just a mirage. However, he followed that up with a soft popup by Renteria, a strikeout of Pudge after coming to a 3-1 count, and a popup by Polanco to end the inning and escape a 2nd and 3rd, no one out jam. All in all, a nice recovery for Farnsy. Joba and Mariano closed out the game in the usual fashion.

The lineup did a nice job, working counts and chasing Jeremy Bonderman in the 5th inning. Derek Jeter had two hits and his first home run of the year, while Jason Giambi and Robbie Cano both reached base twice, each with a hit and a walk. On the negative side, Melky Cabrera seems to be slumping and Wilson Betemit left with a strained hamstring after an RBI double.

On the whole, some positive signs can be taken from this game. 1) Rasner throws strikes, works quickly, and seems to be pretty calm on the mound. They should continue to send him out there as long as he remains at least moderately effective. He has earned it. 2) Kyle Farnsworth would have given up three runs in that spot last year, or at least walked Pudge when the count was 3-1. He recovered for the K, and showed some fortitude after a poor first two batters. 3) Cano went 1-3, but hit the ball hard on both of his outs. Giambi looks better at the plate as well. 4) Mariano Rivera is awesome. Where are the people who spent the whole offseason telling us he was on the way down?

Game 37: Yankees at Tigers (L)

New York Yankees (18-18) vs. Detroit Tigers (15-21)

Kei Igawa (3-3, 3.86(AAA)) vs. Kenny Rogers (2-3, 6.27)

May 9, 2008@ 7:05 p.m. @ Comerica Park

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E
New York	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3		5	14	3
Detroit	1	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	X		6	13	0
Igawa (L, 0-1) Rogers (W, 3-3)

Preview:

Kei Igawa makes his season debut for the Yankees tonight as they open a three game set with the Tigers in Detroit.  Igawa has fared pretty well so far this season in Scranton, but seems to be following a troubling pattern of getting worse each start out. 

One area in which he has improved significantly this season is keeping down the walks.  Again though, he surrendered a season-high of four in his most recent game.  Igawa has decent stuff, so if he can continue to attack the zone rather than trying to nibble around it, he can get some good results.  He can’t revert back to his habit of walking everybody though, or this will be a short stint in the majors.

To make room for Kei Igawa, Chris Britton was optioned to Scranton

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Recap:

It seems like Kei Igawa may have misunderstood me.  When I said “attack the zone,” he apparently thought that meant, “throw it right down the middle.”  Hey, on the bright side, he didn’t walk anyone.  Instead he gave up 11 hits, surrendering six runs in just three innings.

After he left the game, the bullpen did a stellar job.  Jonathan Albaladejo - who left the game with an injured elbow - LaTroy Hawkins and Edwar Ramirez combined for five shutout innings, really giving the offense every opportunity to get back in the game.

The offense was able to get their fair share of hits tonight, but aside from the ninth inning, they were unable to turn them into any serious run production.  They ground into two double plays and left nine men on base.  In the ninth inning, the Yankees finally were able to put something together, putting a 3-spot up on Tigers’ closer Todd Jones.  Normally, that’s a great inning.  Unfortunately, thanks to their previous ineptitude they needed four runs and fell just short, leaving the tying run in scoring position.

Update:

Albaladejo will go on the DL.  Chris Britton will be called back up to take his spot.

Bad Idea of the Week: David Wells

We all know the Yankees have some starting rotation issues.  Kei Igawa is starting for the Yankees tonight, and expectations are not very high.  However, David Wells has come out with an idea in the New York Post today on how he thinks the Yankees could improve their rotation; sign him.

“I’m in shape, I’d just have to fine-tune a couple of things,” Wells said. “I’d need a little bit of time, but not much. Physically I feel fine, real good.”

Now, when I first saw the headline (which was terrible in the true New York Post style) I didn’t think it would be worth writing, or even really thinking about.  I forgot about Hank Steinbrenner though, who sounded interested.  “I’ve thought about it…you never know,” he said, adding, “He’ll always be a Yankee to me.”

They also quoted an unnamed Yankee veteran as saying, “It may happen.”

Of course, Wells also used this opportunity to take a shot at Joe Torre.   He said that when the Yankees didn’t resign him after 2003, it wasn’t because he was 40 years old and his body had just given out on him in the middle of the World Series - okay, maybe he didn’t say that - but rather because he wasn’t one of Joe Torre’s “boys.”  Alright, David.

I liked David Wells when he pitched in New York.  He was a good pitcher who won his share of games for the Yankees.  But at 45 years old, he’s got nothing left.  Last year, pitching in the NL West - one of the worst-hitting divisions - he posted an ERA of 5.43 with a WHIP of 1.54 and lasted just 5.4 innings per start.  Moving to the heavy-hitting AL East probably wouldn’t be the greatest career move.  Have a good retirement, Boomer.