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Yanks looking great after productive off-season
Once upon a time, Yankee fans were optimistic. Every year was our year, we once believed. But when Luis Gonzalez’s lucky hit fell out of the reach of an inexplicably drawn-in infield on a November night in 2001, every year became someone else’s year, and Yankee fans responded with pessimism.
With last year’s disastrous showing against a Detroit Tigers team that, frankly, wasn’t all that good, the Yankees had seemingly hit an all-time low. An overpaid bunch of players led by an aging and highly faulty pitching staff had led many Yankee fans to despair. Now, with spring training a few short weeks away, Yankee fans are even more pessimistic than usual. In fact, one of own commenters, in what I hope was a fit of delusion, predicted a fourth place finish for the Bombers in 2007.
Fourth place! Behind the pitching-starved Devil Rays. Can you believe that? What bothers me, though, isn’t this one person’s lack of faith in the Yankees. On Yankee blog after Yankee blog, I see a similar attitude. Yankee fans think their team is terrible. Frankly, this is an attitude I used to associate with Red Sox and Mets fans. No offense, if you’re a fan of one of those teams, but that was the prevalent attitude coming out of Shea Stadium or Fenway for much of the 1990s.
Let’s take a look at how last season ended. In 2006, the Yankees finished 11 games ahead of the third-place Red Sox. At 97-65, the Yankees were the winningest team in the Major Leagues. While their Pythagorean Record projected to 95-67, the Red Sox, the team many believe to be the Yanks’ main competitors, should have been 81-81. They were a .500 team while the Yankees were close to a .600 team!
Do you still think fourth place sounds reasonable? The Sox would have to gain nearly 11 actual games on the Yanks and 14 Pythagorean games. Plus — plus — the Yankees would have to fall behind the Blue Jays and the Devil Rays all while sporting what many consider to be the best offense in the Majors and an above-average pitching rotation. This picture doesn’t look so bad after all.
Looking at the lineup, we see that the Yankees are bringing back their top 8 productive hitters. Here’s the projected Opening Day lineup, more or less:
Damon CF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Giambi DH
Posada C
Matsui LF
Cano 2B
Mientkiewicz1B
In all likelihood, Posada and Matsui will flip positions, but I went with this lineup to try to break up the lefty-righty combinations. No matter how you slice and dice it, this is a mighty impressive lineup. In fact, using season totals from 2006, David Pinto’s Lineup Analysis tool projects no fewer than 6.13 runs per game from this lineup. That’s utterly sick. While that may be an expectation that the Yanks won’t meet, even a ten percent decline from the minimum projection leaves the Yanks scoring 5.5 runs per game.
Where many people see pain is on the bench, but things really aren’t so bad. First, the Yankees have arguably the best fourth outfielder in the game in Melky Cabrera. On any other team, this guy would be starting. And while I’m not sure if Melky’s ceiling is much higher than what we saw last year, he’s an excellent threat off the bench and a stellar defensive outfielder. They have Josh Phelps, Andy Phillips, Miguel Cairo and either Raul Chavez or Wil Nieves as the back-up catcher. It’s this back-up catcher situation that has left some folks — like Pinstripe Alley’s John Amato — ridiculously saying that the Yanks are bad year.
Come on, folks. We’re talking about a back-up catcher. Our archrivals up I-95 had a back-up catcher who hit .193/.261/.342. That’s terrible, and you’re going to try to convince me that because the Yanks don’t have some sort of name in that spot that they’re bad. Well, even Joe Girardi was pretty bad during his final years in the Bronx, and no one was complaining them. But hey, I say sarcastically, he was a winner. Perspective, people. It’s very important here.
Moving into the bullpen, some fans have expressed their concern that the Yankees will not be able to replicate the numbers of the third starters the Yankees are missing. Now, that would be a concern if we were talking about three good pitchers. But we’re talking about Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright and some other fifth starter. Last season, Yankees starters not named Mike Mussina or Chien-Ming Wang went a combined 40-29 with a 5.31 ERA in 519 innings. They gave up 41 more hits than innings pitched and pretty much were terrible. Among the luminaries making starts for the Yankees last year were Sean Henn, Shawn Chacon, Sidney Ponson, Kris Wilson and Aaron Small.
Oof.
This year, the Yanks head into the season with a projected starting rotation as follows:
Chien-Ming Wang
Andy Pettitte
Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano
Kei Igawa
Humberto Sanchez/Darrel Rasner/Jeff Karstens/Philip Hughes
Now, while Igawa is an unproven commodity and Carl Pavano is, well, the Rajah of Rehab, I have to err on the side of optimism here. First, Pavano is pitching basically for his career. He’s only 31; he’s refocused this off-season, according to numerous published reports; and he knows that if he fails again this year, his baseball career is in shambles. Second, Igawa is a wild card. The Red Sox are relying on Daisuke Matsuzaka to be an ace. Those are high expectations for anyone, let along a pitcher who has never thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues. On the other hand, Igawa just has to be a fourth or fifth starter on a team that could score six runs a game. I’ll take those odds.
And look at that list of potential back-up starters should someone go down. That’s a mighty impressive array of arms, and that list doesn’t even consider the wildest of wild cards: Roger Clemens. But we’ll save that speculation for later (or check out Ian’s latest piece for more news on the Rocket).
The bullpen now features Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Luis Vizcaino, Chris Britton, Mike Myers and someone else. Wow. That’s not bad.
All of a sudden, we’ve filled out the Yankees roster, and I would put my money on this team to, once again, win the AL East.
Where is this doom-and-gloom coming from? Does it come from bandwagon fans who missed the 1990s dynasty and want to see some wins? Does it come from people not used to losing in October who do not understand the crap-shoot nature of the playoffs?
Whatever its source, it should end today. The Yankees are a very good team with a very smart General Manager. They have arguably a better team this year than last with a lower payroll and a vastly improved farm system. You can’t say about too many teams coming off a 97-win season. So let’s enjoy it. Let’s stop predicting fourth places and stop criticizing Brian Cashman for mailing it in this off-season.
The Yankees are very good, and the Yankees will win. That’s the proper attitude.
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22 Responses to “Yanks looking great after productive off-season”
January 12th, 2007 at 1:34 am
There is no reason to panic or think we’ll be in 4th place. I think that is rediculous! First of all, we have not gotten great numbers from our 4 and 5 spots for years. No matter what combination or Igawa, Pavano, Rasner, Karstens, Hughes, or Sanchez we use we should AT LEAST get the same amount of production as we are use to. All of these guys could potentialy at the minimum do what Wright did but more consistantly. And, God bless this soul, but Ithink they can all do better than Lydles numbers. I think we are better than we were. Eventually if we are going to be led by these prospects we have to bring them up. I wouldnt be aposed to having Sanchez and Hughes start the year with the club, one in the pen one in the rotation. But either way there shouldnt be so much concern over the pitching.
As far as the fielding. A back-up catcher? Everyone has been crying about this all offseason. CHILL OUT! It would be nice to have a solid #2 but the fact is that as long as they can call a good game the little playing time they get wont hurt us. Our best #2 last year was Sal Fasano! Now, Sal is a jolly hat man and I like that. He was good to have on our bench. He fit in well. But if we cant get what we got from him from one of the two guys that come into ST to fight for the #2 job, then we can easily pick one up when we need to. Its really nothing to freak about.
Otherwise, CashMan has had a masterful offseason. He turned nothing into something when he used the option to retain Sheff so he could bulk up our minor league system and he got a steel. He turned an overpaid mistake in Wright into a young, cheap pen hand. He (re)signed a loved fan favorite Yankee bread icon and vertually replaced RJ before he even began trying to ship him out west. He traded RJ and whats even better is CashMan makes it seem like it was RJ’s idea. Yeah like CashMan wasnt looking for ANY chance he could get to ship the little unit out! Anyway, RJ asks to go, and out of the goodness of his heart he sends RJ back to AZ. He ends up with a deal that many we not impressed with. But CashMan had himself an insider because he hired the ex-scout of AZ this year. So he knows what he got. We dont. But he does and thats his job so nuff said! He may have gotten himself then next setup man or closer in Russ O. He is a starter but many think his place is in the pen. We will see. We may have a starter. Maybe nothing. Whatever. I was hoping CashMan would make more moves in the pen but I feel fine with what we have. Its good enough to pitch well. As long as we have Mo I will never worry. We’re the Yankees, if ANY position is hurting us we will make a change! We are in good shape. Of course we want to win every year but more realisticly we need to ask to be competitive and we will definately be that. Lets not forget that we will have Abreu and his patient bat for the entire year! We have a first baseman that takes away the factor that we normaly have a defensive hole at that position. We are in good shape. I dont see any reason why we arent going to be in contention for not only our division but to go all the way to the World Series this year.
January 12th, 2007 at 9:15 am
Ben-
I completely agree with your post, I think Cashman has done a great job of stockpiling young arms in the farm system. Not only do we have good young arms to bring up, we have an abundance of them if a worth while trade is available at the deadline.
Its obvious that what we were doing was not working with bringing in all these big names, so a change to youth is a step in the right direction. Hughes and Wang will be there for a long time. If one more of our young arms comes through thats three guys in our rotation FROM our system and under team arbitration control. It would be nice to have a low payroll and younger team.
January 12th, 2007 at 9:42 am
4th?
Seems like the players aren’t the only ones who need to be subjected to a drug test.
January 12th, 2007 at 9:57 am
Chacon, Small, Henn, Lidle, Kris Wilson, Karstens, Rasner and Ponson combined for 37 starts and 29 relief appearances last year.
The combined record was 14-13, 6.22.
Read the ERA again. 6.22.
For those who are crying about “untested youngsters”, ask yourself this—don’t you think one youngster can step up and do better than 6.22?
January 12th, 2007 at 10:08 am
you forgot bruney in the bullpen who finished great last year
January 12th, 2007 at 10:58 am
Good stuff Ben. I couldnt agree more. It just seems that some people have taken everything and looked at it from a pessimistic view and believe it or not the yankees have improved from last years league-leading 97 wins. Unbelieveable i cant state how excited for the upcoming season.
January 12th, 2007 at 11:19 am
good job ben. you’ve summed it up perfectly. there is plenty to be excited about for this year and beyond. Few teams if any have done this well, and again we are talking about improvements to a 97 win team last year.
Cash has gotten rid of the clubhouse cancers and replaced them with character guys and promising youth without sacrificing any significant performers. we stand more of a chance to win with this formula of youth and character, which we have gotten away from since ‘the lucky bloop’.
the lean years in the 80’s and 90’s are either forgotten by many of the nay-sayers or were never experienced, b/c they were too young. we’ve been pretty spoiled from 96 thru 2001 and people forget how that run was accomplished.
good points on the back end of the rotation last year. the bar isnt set that high for Igawa/Pavano. 7 wins a piece isnt a lot to expect before positive contributions to the win total for them.
January 12th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
I have not heard anyone post about the importance of the improved team chemistry with RJ the Moax and Sheffield The Cancerous Growth gone. Removing these two sullen individuals will remove much of the tension and disunity that I believe harmed the club. If Alex can just play like we know he can and everyone else performs up to their standards, we can compete at the highest level. Fourth place? Puhleeeeze. Cashman has done an outstanding job of stockpiling talent that will either populate the roster or be used for trade bait. Do I hear an “Amen” for Texeira, Zambrano, or Johann?
January 12th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Ben,
Last year, the yankees scored an average of 5.74 runs/game (and if you trust baseball prospectus’s AEQR, they played at a level high enough to earn them 5.64 runs per game). However, there is no way to look at this offense and see improvement. Between the Gary Sheffield trade (which, by the way, I think was a good one) and the aging of every position player save Cano on the wrong side of his peak years, and I think you have to project some decline. Look for the Yankees to struggle to score 900 runs this year. However, where I think you are absolutely correct is on the pitching side of things. There is basically no way for this Yankees staff to be worse than last year’s. Picking up Luis Vizcaino will give the Yanks flexibility to give Scott Proctor some spot starts (in the likelihood that Pavano falls apart again). Phillip Hughes will be up and effective by July, and I think Igawa will be very effective at least once around the league. I think the Yankees, even without the Rocket, could allow as few as 725 runs.
I think the Yankees will cruise to first place again.
January 12th, 2007 at 2:28 pm
Tommy, I don’t understand the “struggle to score 900 runs” statement. They scored 930 last year. Assuming we don’t see another debacle this year, a la Matsui and Sheffield going down, they should not have a problem matching that.
A full season of Matsui and Abreu will keep the run total high. Giambi moving to DH for a full season figures to up his production. And, truthfully, we should see a rebound from Alex.
Yes, one or more of those things can go wrong. But we can’t be assuming that right now. If everyone is healthy, the Yanks should certainly score 900, 950 runs.
January 12th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
Benjamin, Did you forget Redsox traded for B- young catcher and his named Kottaras for washed up David Wells? Yankees are in trouble and God Forbid if Posada goes down with Injury. I’m praying for his safety..
The Yankees who struggles against the O’s last year while RedSawx are 13-1 against them.
Benjamin , Al east improved dramatically this offseason and competition will be tougher.
Can Wang’s repeat his near cy young performance last year?
Can Pettite transitioned his numbers and adjust playing from Nl to Al with Dh?
January 12th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
No guarantees at all on Kottaras. Though they might need him if ‘Tek duplicates ‘06.
January 12th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
from rotoworld
Yankees announced the retirement of RHP Jeff Nelson.
[QUOTE]Because MLB needs to be more like the NFL, Nelson first signed a minor league deal with the Yankees and then made the announcement. The 40-year-old Nelson had a 3.41 ERA in 798 career appearances, all of them coming out of the pen. He spent 16 seasons in the majors, six with the Yankees and eight with the Mariners. [/QUOTE]
good luck Jeff.
January 12th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
The Yankees just announced 20 non-roster invitees to spring training. Included in the list is former Met, Philly and Brave, C-Todd Pratt. Maybe that is where the veteran backstop comes from if Wil Nieves doesn’t win the job this spring.
Here’s the full list of non-roster invitees. In addition to Pratt, Ben Davis and Raul Chavez both represent catchers with experience.
Jeff Nelson was invited, but retired and I’m interested in Ben Kozlowski a 6′6″ left handed relief pitcher.
Invited RHP Jeff Nelson, INF Andy Cannizaro, INF Angel Chavez, C Raul Chavez, RHP Tyler Clippard, C Ben Davis, INF Eric Duncan, OF Brett Gardner, RHP Phil Hughes, RHP Steven Jackson, LHP Ben Kozlowski, INF Ramiro Pena, RHP Ross Ohlendorf, C Peter Pilittere, C Todd Pratt, C Omir Santos, OF Jose Tabata, INF Marcos Vechionacci, RHP Kevin Whelan, and RHP Steven White to Spring Training.
January 12th, 2007 at 11:38 pm
Jack Hent (and others): My point isn’t about WHO the back-up catcher is. My point is: Why does it matter? If the Yankees’ biggest “problem” is the lack of a back-up catcher, I would say they’re pretty set. We’re talking about a back-up catcher who isn’t going to be any good or make a difference. Show me a back-up catcher that’s had much of an effect on their team. Seriously. Perspective, as I wrote, is key. It’s just a back-up catcher.
January 13th, 2007 at 1:05 am
choppt-I looked up about Kozlowski and found this at roto.
The Yankees have reportedly signed left-hander Ben Kozlowski to a minor league contract.
Kozlowski, 26, had a 3.79 ERA and a 78/40 K/BB ratio in 97 1/3 innings for two Double-A and two Triple-A teams last season. The former Rangers prospect should be in the bullpen at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
January 13th, 2007 at 1:13 am
Sounds like a good signing. He was in the Rangers top two prospect arms at one point. He was a Braves prospect too. But he’s 6′6″, 230 lbs. He’s a big guy. CashMan has been picking up power arms that have mass behing them. I like that. Chubby relievers are usually good. And starters built like David Wells are equally sad as they are good but they are definately entertaining to watch!
January 13th, 2007 at 2:51 am
Hey ESPN Insider says-
Jan 12 - The Pirates and Diamondbacks are believed to have discussed a trade involving Chad Tracy. Pittsburgh would send closer Mike Gonzalez to Arizona for third baseman Chad Tracy, but the D-Backs want more.
Maybe we can jump in there and send Melky to AZ and Tracy to Pitt and Gonzo to NYY? Maybe we can send Melky to Pitt and Gonzo to AZ and Tracy to NYY? Either way would benefit us!
January 13th, 2007 at 9:16 am
GT, I think you’re overvaluing Melky.
January 13th, 2007 at 11:01 pm
Joe-Not really. I never said that other prospects wouldnt be in the trade first of all. And second of all, if Melky was good enough to go for Gonzo and Tracy is good enough to go for Gonzo then by deduction Melky is good enough to go for Tracy. Now I think Tracy is clearly the best guy in this discusion but I also am a believer that Gonzo would be a huge pick up for us. I put that bit about Tracy in there for everyone who wanted him so badly. My point is that if we were to trade Melky for Gonzo it would probably take more prospects or a third team…why not jump in on an already existing trade conversation and in acting like the third team maybe we can get what we want at a lower cost to us!
p.s.: Honestly, I dont value Melky very much. I was very happy to see how he played for us and he deserves major credit for what he did. He saved us. We had 2 corner outfielders out in the AL East and we tied for the best record in baseball! Thats nuts. Thats why I want to see him traded. His stock is high and there really isnt any place for Melky in NY. Maybe at Shea but not in the Bronx! He just came up at the wrong time. He is a hell of a 4th OF but but right now his value is more than he is actually worth so I think we should jump on it.
January 14th, 2007 at 10:55 am
My point is, though, that I don’t think other teams are very interested in him.
And from my understanding of the proceedings, Melky wasn’t enough for Gonzo (Dave Littlefield wanted more), and Tracy was too much for Gonzo (Josh Byrnes also wanted more).
January 14th, 2007 at 11:08 pm
Well thats my point. Maybe we can throw a couple of prospects in with Melky to make this thing work. Maybe not. It was just a thought.
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