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Overreaction
I talk a lot about how much I hate the New York Media. They haven’t disappointed me. It’s amazing how easily they can push Yankee fans into a panic.
Ever the voices of reason, the boys at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have stood out and given tempered analysis of the Yankee’s situation. I highly encourage everyone to read these two posts about the Yankees current situation.
As Larry says, the Yankees are at a crossroads. Joe Torre is gone. As much as the media wants to lament their favorite son, he is gone and he isn’t coming back. Dwell in the past if you must, but you can’t change it.
What do the Yankees do from here? They need to resist the temptation to not destroy the future of a very promising organization. What does this mean? It means not giving irrationally big contracts to Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Alex Rodriguez, especially Arod. Mariano and Jorge are in the twilights of their career, and any contract we give them will ultimately guarantee their place in the starting lineup or closing position for the length of the contract.
Mariano is a Yankee legend and my favorite player. That said, he’s no longer a top-shelf closer and does not deserve tens of millions of dollars. He’d be nice to have back on the team, but for a 3 year, 35 million dollar contract? Sorry Mo, but you can’t hold your former team hostage. The Yankee’s #1 duty is to win, not just to pacify panicking fans. If I’m Brian Cashman, I go no longer than 2 years and no more than 11 per. If Mariano gets an offer higher, then I sadly let him go.
Jorge Posada has been the best catcher in baseball over the past two years, but he’s 36 years old. Catchers tend to fall off cliffs, and Posada is no exception. We’re in a bind with him, because there aren’t really any other options open to us. I’d offer Posada a 3 year contract worth 13-15 per, but no more. If a team offers him 4 years with some misguided deal, I let him walk.
Alex Rodriguez is an interesting case. Even with decline, it’s hard to see him not being the top 3rd baseman in the American League over the next 5-6 years. After that, we probably justify a high salary for him on the basis of media attention and marketing while he chases history. Still, a super-long term deal carries enormous risk, and no one has ever given one to a player of Alex’s age. I’d draw the line at an extension of 5 years, 33 million per year. Any more, and I let another team take the burden, especially if he opts out.
The point here? The Yankees cannot panic. Hopefully, they spent a significant portion of their time meeting in Tampa last week to set limits, and make contingency plans. Unfortunately, somewhat of a panic move has been rumored. From MLB Trade Rumors:
A source of mine with Yankee connections had some good info for me today. Much was discussed yesterday in Tampa.
For starters, the Yanks are expected to make “eye-popping” offers to retain Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera before the World Series ends. The team does not want the pair to file for free agency.
Additionally, the Yankees may make a big play for Aaron Rowand. They believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana. That’s a huge price, but doesn’t seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.
Wow. What a disaster that would be. Now, I trust MLB Trade rumors more than most sources to tell the truth, but I hope that his source was misinformed.
Trading Melky, Wang, and Kennedy for Santana? Are you kidding me? Johan Santana may be baseball’s best pitcher, but he’s also a free agent in a year. Wang is not a free agent until after the 2011 season - four seasons. Wang didn’t have a great postseason, but let’s look at the list of starting pitchers better than Wang in each of the past 2 seasons:
- Johan
- Sabathia
- Verlander
- Halladay
- Lackey
- Kazmir
That’s it. Wang may not be an ace by the conventional definition, but it’s hard to argue that he’s not one of the 10 most valuable pitchers in the AL. Add in Melky Cabrera - a roughly league average centerfielder at the age of 23. Remember those statistical comparisons to Carlos Beltran? Beltran hit .247/.309/.366 at at the age of 23. Melky could fail to improve and settle in as a borderline starting option in center, or he could follow the career path of stars who break into the majors at the age of 21. And Ian Kennedy? Say what you want about his ceiling - the guy looks like a solid major league starter at least, and a star if things work out.
I don’t expect the Yankees to win a World Series in 2008. It’s just not probable. The Yankees are in a transition period, and their best chance to win probably now stands in 2009. I don’t think that an upgrade from Wang to Santana really changes that much.
If I’m Brian Cashman, I think about giving away either Wang OR Kennedy and Melky for one season of the ace. It’s irrational. It’s a panic move.
I don’t even need to start talking about Aaron Rowand. I hope that Brian Cashman displays more of his newfound patience and let’s the farm system do it’s work.
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on Sunday, October 21st, 2007 at 1:04 pm and is filed under Off the Facade.
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26 Responses to “Overreaction”
October 21st, 2007 at 2:19 pm
I would trade Wang (who is only 1 year younger then Santana) and either Kennedy or Melky for Santana.Only if we get a negotiation window during the trade.
We need a strikeout ace pitcher to get pass the ALDS.Wang will always be a #2 like Mussina.Good but not great.
Also Kennedy will not start in the majors this year.You can’t start 3 guys who never played in the majors leagues in a full year be in your roatation.
October 21st, 2007 at 2:39 pm
I agree I hope we hold on to everything we have and don’t make any panic moves. Keeping Wang means we one more pitcher in our rotation who doesn’t demand a lot of salary, giving us more payroll to go after Santana in 2009, or Oswalt or someone else of that caliber when they become a FA.
We need to keep getting younger, so trading away some of our youth doesn’t make a lot of sense.
October 21st, 2007 at 3:07 pm
I’m no astrologer, but I had somebody telling me yesterday that the whole Torre fiasco is symptomatic of the fact that we are in a “Mercury in Retrograde” period. What does this mean? http://itotd.com/articles/271/mercury-retrograde/
In reading about it, this seems to sound kind of like what’s going on:
“It’s All a Big Misunderstanding
Astrologically speaking, Mercury is associated with communication—the god Mercury, after all, was the winged messenger. By inference, if Mercury is moving backward, that implies difficulty communicating. Specifically, Mercury retrograde periods are said to be characterized by misunderstandings, confusion, and indecision. Delays in communication (for example, a misdirected package or a failure to return a call) are common, as are distractions and a frequent need to rework or redo things you create.”
Basically, what the person was telling me is that the communications mis-steps that characterized the Torre situation are very much in line with Mercury being in retrograde.
Who knows. Either way, I loved Joe, but finally felt that it was time for a change. I hope the Yanks don’t do anything irrational like you mentioned above. Kennedy pitched better than even Hughes in his few starts, and seems to have a lot of potential.
October 21st, 2007 at 3:28 pm
I couldn’t agree more with everything you said in this article. The future of the Yankees could not be any brighter, and moves like those would just kill that.
October 21st, 2007 at 4:32 pm
Adrian - I hear a lot of Yankee fans talking about a negotiating window with the contract extension. There is now way that Johan Santana allows himself to be taken off the market by signing with us without us having the pay exactly what we would the year after - and a little more.
October 21st, 2007 at 5:04 pm
EJ,
After the Media crucified the Yankee Brass over Torre walking away from a very good offer. I think they might panic and do something stupid to appease the Idiots who are ripping them to shreads…Kennedy and Wang are in the rotation next year. Trade both for one and we lose youth, promise, and an extra arm. This will ruin the good work started by Cashman this year. I sincerely hope that these rumors are at the very least, off base. I have to believe that Twins brass as well as some other front offices are salivating over the fact that the Yankees will feel pressure to do something. Do you think Cash still has the power he had the last two years? I hope he does, he’s the only one I would trust with the future of the franchise right now.
October 21st, 2007 at 5:07 pm
If Johan hits the market he easily will get over $200mil..
I’m sorry, but the risk isn’t worth it. Kennedy is a future in the rotation, even if it’s as a #3 or #4 … Wang, even though he isn’t a typical ace, gets us wins.
People can say what they like about him, but he’s cheap and reliable…I’d rather have him take the ball than Mussina, and he’s loads cheaper than Moose is.
I just don’t think Santana would do well here, under his normal standards. You have to have a REALLY strong mental toughness to pitch in NY. Look at Randy Johnson. Good but not excellent…there’s a big difference in NY and anything less than excellent is failure…and I don’t want another $100+ mil failure…
October 21st, 2007 at 5:42 pm
Santana is one of those ‘best of era’ pitchers that everyone should want. The Yankees would only pursue him in the event it was a trade and sign, so don’t worry about only having him for 1 year.
Who to trade? I agree that you can’t give up 2 high level pitchers, but I would let Melky go, either of Wang / Kennedy, and a low level prospect or 2. Who knows if that would be enough, but more would be detrimental.
October 21st, 2007 at 6:51 pm
I make that trade in a heartbeat. Santana would take the immediate pressure off of Joba and Hughes while providing us with a bonafide ace that could push us over the top in a short playoff series. Also, I love Cashman’s approach and am excited about the minors, but for a franchise like the Yankees, our A- level prospects can be used to obtain the true superstars in the league, particularly when they are in their prime. And the Yankee system has good depth…
October 21st, 2007 at 7:00 pm
EJ Fagan-Your right about that.But I would throw $20 a Mill.I mean people forget with money matters that baseball players making over $15 million are overrvalued I mean Clemens making $18 million for 6 wins c’mon.I would give What Santana would expect if he went to free agency.Look at Derek Jeter making $18 million what did he do for us.He couldn’t even do what we pay him for in the post season.Three double plays.
With so many Yankees like Joba,Huges,and Edwar you saved $25 million right there.You can’t have your cake and eat it too.The late 90’s teams weren’t all young prospect.You need free agents.Even pitchers.
October 21st, 2007 at 8:06 pm
Adrian -
A couple of things.
In my vision of the future, the Yankees aren’t all kids. Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, (hopefully), Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, Chien-Ming Wang, and Andy Pettitte lead the group to the World Series.
I’m not always opposed to signing vets - just the wrong vets. I still lament not signing Carlos Beltran. I’m salivating at the possibility of a 25 year-old Felix Hernandez free agent, or 27 year-old K-Rod. But making the wrong move could kill us - signing Andruw Jones or Aaron Roward this offseason, or Barry Zito last.
My vision of the future (in terms that I usually don’t like to use):
2009 NYY -
Phil Hughes - 220 innings, 3.30 ERA
Joba Chamberlain - 200 innings, 3.05 ERA
Chien-Ming Wang - 220 innings, 3.70 ERA
Ian Kennedy - 200 innings, 3.70 ERA
Someone Else - I don’t care! Anyone will do. Pettitte, Horne, Marquez, whomever.
I really don’t think that any one of those projections is at all unreasonable, and I think that all four are more likely to happen than not to.
October 21st, 2007 at 8:40 pm
I have been a yankee fan for over 50 years, and I can not ever remember how embarrassed I am over the way the Yankee brass treated Joe Torre or the yankee fans. If I were a yankee player right now, I would be thinking about how they treated Joe, and who is next. It took Yogi a long time to get over how they dumped him, and I will take a long time forgetting how they treated Joe and us loyal yankee fans.
October 21st, 2007 at 9:08 pm
Marty,
Are you even more embarrassed then in 2004?
Up 3 games to none with a lead in the 9th in game four and we could not close the deal?
-Torre totally blew that series in one of the worst managerial performances in the history of the game?
-Yes the Yankees could have treated him better in this case like simply telling him “Joe we’re going in a different direction. Thank you for your services, good luck”… That would have been the way to do it. But it still needed to be done.
October 21st, 2007 at 9:10 pm
Marty, if you’ve been a Yankee fan for over 50 years, as you claim, then surely you remember how Casey Stengel was let go in 1960. It was much the same as with Torre now.
October 21st, 2007 at 10:13 pm
EJ-Your entire article was very good and sound until you got to the trade rumor section. You’re smart. Dont act like you’re stupid enough to think CashMan would trade Melky, Wang and Kennedy for Santana just for the year. ANYONE who trades for Santana will definately get an extention done with his as part of the deal. OBVIOUSLY that deal would be stupid if you didnt but if you did its actually not that dumb. I’m not saying it should be done but its not dumb. But come on man, we both know an extention would be signed with Santana before handing over such a bounty.
October 21st, 2007 at 10:15 pm
EJ-If he doesnt want to make a deal then you obviously dont make the trade and take a shot at him in free agency. But if a deal is made he will sign long term. They go hand in hand.
October 21st, 2007 at 11:04 pm
I’m against signing any pitcher to a deal longer than 5 years, so I’m not too sure if it’s the smartest idea to sign Santana in any circumstance. But we’ll tackle that issue after next season.
giantthinker - You’re assuming that Cashman is completely in charge. With the transition to the other Stein brothers, he might have lost influence.
October 21st, 2007 at 11:10 pm
EJ Fagan-Thats way to many prospects to gamble with in the next 2 years.Not all these prospects will be as good.Huges yes,chamberlain yes.But to think in 2 years that 4 guys in our rotation is all prospects are big gambles.Even this year.You are gonna risk three spots if you add Kennedy to guys who have not played a full year in the majors.
Thats why it’s not crazy to get rid of Kennedy.And hey if he’s better then Santana in 5 years will get him froM The Twins all over again by trade.You need a win now guy and only one guy is as close to win now.
October 21st, 2007 at 11:20 pm
EJ -
Great post. I agree almost completely.
- It was time for a change, even if the Yanks didn’t do it very well, to say the least.
- As I’ve noted, and as one of those posts you linked to noted, everybody was freaking when Torre came IN! He had won nothing and had the reputation as a losing coach. I was appalled. As it turned out, he ended up being the perfect match. I
do think that pairing Mattingly with a great veteran strategy-oriented bench coach is the way to go. I’d be very happy with Girardi as well. Right now, I’m guessing that it will be one of these two, to help smooth the transition and appease the team and masses. That need for experience could mean that they bring in Mazzone instead of Eiland as pitching coach, but we’ll see.
- I think we’ll be fine on the field as long as the front office doesn’t panic and do anything stupid. I’d love to have Santana on the team, but as many great pitchers have shown recently, there’s that unknown about how he’d handle NY. Will he be like bringing in David Cone or Wells, or one of the free agents who didn’t work out?
I hope they don’t give away Melky. I’d throw Matsui in on the trade before Melky (freeing up the OF spot for Damon). Matsui seemed to be slowing down, and I think Melky will continue to improve.
Of course, the huge thing we need to focus on is improving the pen.
I think once everybody calms down, we’ll realize we have a great mix of veterans and home-grown kids, and will be building a very nice future over the next couple of years…
I just hope that the front office doesn’t do anything stupid…
October 22nd, 2007 at 12:07 am
Adrian - Why are too many prospectives inherently a gamble?
Phil Hughes has shown that he’s already a very good major league starting pitcher. Joba Chamberlain has shown that he might have the best stuff in the majors, with all the control and makeup to compliment. Ian Kennedy has shown that he can pitch like his idol Mike Mussina.
I like risk. Risk comes with reward. Risk is what brought the Colorado Rockies to the World Series. The Yankees would have put Aaron Cook on the NLCS roster over Franklin Morales - but Morales was the better pitcher.
Prospect or Vet, I want the best pitchers out there. I want the cheap guys out there so we can sign more vets. A Johan Santana on the roster instead of Ian Kennedy necessarily means that we also have less money to pay the Alex Rodriguez’s and Jorge Posada’s of the world. It also means that we’ll be patching the rotation together again in a year.
I’d trade Ian Kennedy for Santana straight up in a heartbeat. I’d have a hard time rejecting Santana for Melky and Kennedy and another B prospect. But those guys and Wang? Ridiculous.
Winning in the postseason is a crapshoot. C.C. Sabathia is the likely Cy Young winner and he sucked this year in October. Choking? No, he just had a bad two weeks. You don’t build to win in one specific year, you build to maintain a long peak.
October 22nd, 2007 at 11:02 am
EJ-Its not a matter of influence. No one is going to trade their ace, starting (young) CF, and another (young) up and coming starter for another starter (no matter how good he is) as a loaner for a year. No matter who deals for him they WILL sign him or they wont make the trade.
October 22nd, 2007 at 11:33 am
The Yankees better not trade away these players for one guy. Then we’ll have to overpay to keep his services. Why do it? I don’t think it’ll and it shouldn’t. Just wait until Peavy hits the market or some other ”ace” hits the market.
October 22nd, 2007 at 12:14 pm
Gianthinker - Teams have made some absolutely abysmal trades before. Look no further than the Jason Jennings trade.
October 22nd, 2007 at 12:14 pm
E-Roc - Why bother with the market? We have Hughes and Joba - one is bound to develop into an ace.
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:57 am
Santana is great, but the Yanks have these guys waiting in the wings for their rotation in the coming years: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Humberto Sanchez,Ian Kennedy, and Tyler Clippard. Why screw with that?
October 25th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
I am certain that if the Yankees go after a Santana via the trade route a contract extension agreement will be required before they give up anything of true value. I have no problem with moving Melky, Wang and Kennedy for a long term Santana. With Chamberlain and Hughes the Yankees have a solid foundation; to add a Santana (who is still relatively young) would be huge. If Humberto Sanchez and Chris Garcia come back from their respective injuries and Pettitte stays for another couple of years the Yankees can allow Dellin Betances, and Brackman to mature in the minors. When you have a shot at a pitcher of the caliber of Santana, and the cost is what is being discussed, you need to pull the trigger… right now.
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