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Ok, Don’t Panic… Think…
Alex Rodriguez is gone. If Brian Cashman sticks by his word (and I expect he will), Alex Rodriguez will no longer be a New York Yankee. So the question is: How bad is this going to be? What are our options.
I’m a Moneyball man. Michael Lewis is somewhere between Socrates and Nietzsche for me. After 2001, the Oakland Athletics lost Jason Giambi, who had just hit .342/.477/.660 - arguably having a better year than Arod. Oakland won 102 games in 2001, but managed to win 103 in 2002. How did it happen? Billy Beane upgraded several different positions.
Alex Rodriguez was a 10 win player. The Yankees will need to find 10 win, preferably on the position player side of things, to compensate. They should have a decent amount of money to work with. The problem? Jorge Posada was a 7-8 win player this season - there’s no way he comes close to that next year. I’m going to list out options at 3rd base tonight. Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the larger plan: Do a Billy Beane and make up for Alex Rodriguez in other places.
Who plays 3rd base?
Garrett Atkins. He was a 4 win player this season. Poor on defense. Suspect offense away from Coors Field. His name is going to come up a lot, because the Rockies will make him available, but it would be a huge mistake to give up anything of value for him.
Troy Glaus. He’s available. He’s cheap. He’s a former Yankee killer. He’s also coming off steroid allegations and only hit .262/.366/.473 in an injury-shortened season. He’s the cheapest guy available (Toronto couldn’t give him away), but even in the best case scenario, Glaus is probably a 3 win player.
Mike Lowell. He just won a World Series MVP. He’s got a good glove. He was a 5 win player this year. If the Yankees are really set on winning in 2008, they have consider a big deal to Lowell. 4 years, 60 million? Expect it, although I wouldn’t expect Lowell to be any good past the 2nd year of that contract. If I’m Cashman, I don’t look toward Lowell.
Miguel Cabrera. He’ll cost an arm and a leg, but entering his prime years away from Florida, he could replicate Alex’s production easily. .340/.400/.600 is not at all out of the question. The question is how willing are we going to be to give away both Hughes and Chamberlain? That’s why he’ll cost.
Wilson Betemit. Talk about the ultimate stopgap. He hit .231/.359/.474 in 2007 with the Dodgers before falling apart with the Yankees. If the Yankees want to concede 2008 and focus on 2009, they could do worse than sit and wait with Betemit.
Derek Jeter. Trade for Edgar Renteria, and move Jeter to 3rd base. He’s terrible out there with the glove, so if he could equal Arod with defense at 3rd we’d gain quite a bit by subbing in the above average Renteria - probably 2 wins on defense alone.
Miguel Tejada. The Orioles don’t want him. He’s got a big contract. He could play 3rd base and hit somewhere in between his 2007 and 2006 production levels. Plus, he’s durable.
Robinson Cano. Cano has been discussed as a 3rd base option in the past. He has good reactions and a stronger arm than he needs at 2nd base. If he can slug above .500 consistently, he’ll be an asset at 3rd. Cano could always shift back to 2nd in the future. Jeff Kent or Tadahito Iguchi
Kevin Kouzmanoff. He sucks at 3rd base. He only hit .289/.329/.457 in the punishing PETCO park this year. But man, he sucks at 3rd base.
Eric Chavez. With Jack Hannahan on the scene, the A’s certainly don’t want to pay him what they will have to next year. The Yankees could get Chavez for free. If he passes a physical, I’d pick him up. Worst case scenario? The Yankees are down a few bucks. Best case? He finds his old stroke and slugs .500 again while playing gold glove defense.
Chad Tracy. He spent the season injured. The Dbacks discovered Mark Reynolds this season, and have Conor Jackson at 1st. With no place to play him, Tracy should be available. The downside is that Betemit will have to play 3rd until Tracy is healthy around May.
The Yankees have to decide how badly they want to compete next year. I’ll be talking about other options tomorrow to upgrade Center 1st Base, and elsewhere.
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42 Responses to “Ok, Don’t Panic… Think…”
October 29th, 2007 at 12:26 am
EJ, which of your candidates has a reputation as being a great team player, ala Tino or Oneil?
There is still going to be a ton of talent on the Yankees next year, so to me it’s a matter of making a few smart, strategic moves that help bring out the best of the team. That means going beyond pure numbers and looking at qualities like leadership, passion, and - most of all - having the mentality of a winner.
I love Lowell - he may only have a couple of years left, but he is a homegrown Yankee, and he sure as hell knows how to win. On that note, EJ, anybody who you see up and coming from the minors who Lowell could help mentor?
October 29th, 2007 at 12:29 am
I’m a Sox fan, and I’m happy that A-Rod decided to opt-out, but I don’t want him in Boston. Just say no, Theo.
Also, the timing of this announcement was simply atrocious. He had ten days after the end of the World Series to make his decision, and he chose to do it the day of the clinching game. And none of the broadcasting gaffes that FOX made measured up to interrupting Game 4 just to inform us of A-Rod’s decision. If Boras and A-Rod wanted the attention, they got it — and I hate them more than ever for it.
The timing of the announcement is weird for another reason: A-Rod did it without even hearing the Yankees offer. He obviously knew he was leaving no matter what the Yankees proposed, which makes him a greedy liar. He said a few times this season that he loved New York; clearly, he wasn’t telling the truth.
All in all, I guess I’m happy that A-Rod won’t be a Yankee anymore (though I’m still not convinced that Cashman will keep his word about staying out of the bidding). But I’m furious about the timing of this announcement.
I can’t stand the guy now, and I just hope he stays far, far away from Boston.
October 29th, 2007 at 12:31 am
EJ, I knew you’d be the first to come up with a list of options. I’m glad we have Cashmoney, I’m confident he wont make any panic moves. I definitely don’t want to give up whatever it would take to get Miguel Cabrera, especially if it means losing Hughes and Chamberlain. It would be nice to see Jeter move to 3rd, but it seems very unlikely….. 4 years is definitely too much for Lowell, who was probably helped to a career year, by playing in Fenway.
Chavez might be a good option… Maybe it would be like when the Yankees picked up Brosius coming off a bad offensive year.
October 29th, 2007 at 12:32 am
I’d make a play for Chavez. I’d always be weary of dealing with Beane, but I think the Cash Man could do it–he has a head on his shoulders, and that will only be vindicated when he decides not to go after Rodriguez.
Moving Jeter to 3rd isn’t a *terrible* idea, but his bat is so much more valuable at short, and I think Chavez’s bat at 3rd would be better than Renteria’s bat at short next year.
I’d think Damon or Matsui plus cash and a prospect would probably net some value at the margins, too. That’s looking a bit beyond 3rd base, though.
October 29th, 2007 at 12:38 am
“…but his bat is so much more valuable at short, and I think Chavez’s bat at 3rd would be better than Renteria’s bat at short next year”
Players don’t take their bats out into the field.
October 29th, 2007 at 12:41 am
Chavez would be a decent stopgap, only problem is he is another left handed hitter (and I don’t have the stats in front of me so I could be dead wrong) but isn’t he bad against left handed pitchers? IF you do grab Chavez, you really need a big right handed bat at first base. If somehow they could get Cabrera(highly unlikely) he’d be a nice option for first.
October 29th, 2007 at 12:43 am
*Sighs* Jeter’s offensive production is so valuable precisely *because* he’s that much better than your average-hitting shortstop. 3rd base is one of the premier offensive positions, shortstop isn’t.
Move Jeter over to 3rd base, and that bat becomes that much less special. Does he make up the difference in runs prevented moving from shortstop to 3rd? I’m not convinced he does.
You’d want to look at the value of Jeter at 3rd, Renteria at short versus of the value of Jeter at short, Chavez at 3rd. Well, you’d also want to look into the cost for either Renteria or Chavez, and I think Renteria would require more than Chavez (especially since Renteria came off a pretty good season).
So when you consider all those factors, Chavez doesn’t look like that bad a play. Besides, you’d need to get Jeter to move over to 3rd, and if he wouldn’t move over to 3rd for A-Rod, I have serious doubts he’d move over to 3rd for anyone else.
October 29th, 2007 at 12:44 am
That’s the biggest concern for me too, Joe, but I think that’s what you’d need to do–look for a right-handed bat to man 1st base and possibly even one of the three outfield slots (looking to upgrade either center or left, most likely). I wouldn’t be adverse to spinning Abreu off for something, either, depending on what value he could bring back.
October 29th, 2007 at 12:46 am
EJ….The one guy who you missed on there whom I’d be very interested in (if healthy) is Joe Crede. With Fields at third(could also play left) Crede shouldn’t be retained, or offered arbitration.
I really want a guy who can hit with pop, bats right handed and plays great defense. If Crede’s back is good, and thats a big if, he is a great 3rd baseman, can hit for power and fits in as the “good” team player we need.
Also if Seattle makes him avaliable, Beltre has a great glove and can hit too. Hey maybe if we take Sexson off their hands they’d throw him in, lol. With arod gone we could suffer the burden of Sexson for a year, and who knows maybe he bounces back, lol.
October 29th, 2007 at 12:51 am
I say all that assuming he’s a FA. Honestly Im not sure, he may have another year for all I know. But even so a trade isn’t out of the question.
October 29th, 2007 at 1:02 am
You know who would net the Yankees a pretty good chunk of offense in a trade? Adam Dunn, methinks. He might be a bit pricey, though the Reds aren’t exactly renowned for slam-dunk baseball moves. He could be fleeced.
That doesn’t help the 3rd base situation directly, obviously, but he’d make for a helluva 1st baseman. Sure, he’s not too dissimilar from Giambi, though Dunn could be put in left field (that’d be an adventure, though). This could work well with the idea of selling Matsui or Damon, though.
Kouzmanoff and Tracy are intriguing to me, but they don’t seem that far off from what Betemit could offer (though Kouzmanoff in particular probably has higher upside than Betemit, perhaps Tracy does, too).
October 29th, 2007 at 1:36 am
I think we’re over complicating things. I think this means the Yanks are going to have to have Giambi & Matsui in the line-up and it means the lighter hitting/better fielding Damon is likely to get dealt. I think Betemit is a decent 8th or 9th hole hitter. He wasn’t that good with the Yanks but his playing time was sporadic, on the year he still managed a .333% OBP and a .454% SLG. There are worse options. As for a righty Duncan plays first base.
Melky, Jeter, Abreu, Matsui, Giambi, Duncan, Cano, Posada, Betemit is a decent line-up. It just hurts because at 17mm a year A-rod was a steal.
Crede isn’t a bad bet. I think the Yanks could make a play for Kerry Wood as a bullpen experiment.
The interesting thing to me is, if Pettitte goes as well, I don’t see the Yanks being a playoff team and you have to ask if Posada and Rivera are worth overpaying for 3-4yrs?
October 29th, 2007 at 1:41 am
Dunn is a 1B or DH and a Boras guy. I doubt the Yanks are looking to talk to Boras anytime in the near future.
October 29th, 2007 at 1:44 am
Lets worry about pitching.That will solve the problem.
October 29th, 2007 at 1:50 am
we need to strenghten our starting pitching we’re laughable and the basic truth is boys and girls that our hitters seem to be scared hitting with 2 outs in the playoffs i think i speak on behalf all yankees fans that WE DONT PLAY FOR THE SEASON,WE PLAY FOR THE WORLD SERIES!,now a-rod is gone ok thats gona hurt guess he couldnt handle the heat in NYY watch i bet hes going to go somewhere where the expectations arent like with the yankees WINNING A TITLE EVERY YR ok now crede doesnt sound bad but what about his back? i wana know and cabrera lets findout? as far as i know i strenghten the starting pitching clemens mussina should both be gone
Chein-Ming Wang
Andy Pettite
Igawa
3.?
4.?
5.?
see everybody?
October 29th, 2007 at 2:02 am
My guess is that A-Rod will be signed will be signed within the next 10 days.
October 29th, 2007 at 2:13 am
Rich, you are going to be very disappointed.
CA Yankee, you need to pick up a newspaper. Hughes, Kennedy, Joba will all be in the rotation next year or with the big club.
Adrian, I agree. Where the Yanks can make up the most ground is pitching and defense. I think Damon, Melky, Abreu is an excellent defensive OF. I think Giambi has to be a DH. I think Betemit will be okay at 3rd. I think Duncan is an improvement over Giambi at 1B.
The bullpen is always a crap shoot. I think as long as Pettitte comes back, Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, Mussina is an excellent starting staff. Having Joba start at AAA or as a long pen arm when the season starts is a very nice option.
Its not THAT bad. I’d rather have A-rod but it could be a boatload worse.
October 29th, 2007 at 2:18 am
why cant we put alberto gonzales at 3rd huh?
October 29th, 2007 at 2:39 am
Just putting this in as a random thought:
Anyone else has the feeling that the Red Sox will have the #1 highest payroll next season? Or at least, near it?
October 29th, 2007 at 2:51 am
Everyone, we should trade for Miguel Cabrera. Come on now, the Marlins are DYING for pitching and they wouldn’t only take Hughes or Chamberlain.
Kennedy, Wright, Karstens, Rasner, these are guys who have pitched in the majors (albeit for limited time). They can definitely be traded (along with a Ross Ohlendorf) for Miggy. He’s the best bet. If he doesn’t get picked up, I’d opt for Chavez or Tejada (Tejada being my first choice).
I really think that, if the Yankees do not upgrade at 3B or 1B (we’ll def see Giambi at DH now), then we will be trading for Santana or another pitcher.
It just means that much more now.
October 29th, 2007 at 5:36 am
I think “conceding” 2008 is a little strong for a 94 win team. I think presuming they bring back Posada, Pettitte, and Rivera, then they can bring in the right pieces to make this a better team. They dont need a masher, if they can compensate with pitching ( primarily Johan Santana) and defense (Aaron Rowand and Mike Lowell or Tejada if the Orioles are willing). They do have a good offense without Arod, just not a 900 run offense. And now they are built around good young pitching, and the best way to support good young pitching is to put a solid defensive team back there.
October 29th, 2007 at 7:01 am
I’d love to sign Kent and move Cano to 3B. But Tejada, Cabrera or Lowell would be sweet too. Tejada is sooooooo durable. I’d love to have him in pinstripes.
October 29th, 2007 at 7:07 am
The Yankees’ Next Third Baseman
Peter Abraham hasn’t taken much time to move on from Alex Rodriguez, already listing out his third base possibilities for the 2008 Yankees.
Abraham starts with the one viable free agent option in Mike Lowell. He adds three trade candidates in Joe Crede, Miguel Cabrera, and Adrian Beltre. And he finishes with two internal candidates in Wilson Betemit and Robinson Cano.
They should all be on the radar although I don’t see the Mariners parting with Beltre. Anyone else we can add to the list?
Among free agents, only Mike Lamb remains as someone who could be league average. The Yanks could always sign Lamb and make their splash elsewhere, like with a Johan Santana trade.
Other trade options on my mind and in the comments of MLBTR readers: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen, Chad Tracy, Mark Teahen, Hank Blalock, Garrett Atkins, and Aramis Ramirez. Tejada and Ramirez seem unlikely for various reasons, but this is meant to be an inclusive list.
I like the Crede idea (interesting that he’s a Boras client). He had back surgery in June and hopes to be ready for the start of the season. He’ll be earning around $5MM in a contract year. How about some sort of Crede for Johnny Damon swap?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/the-yankees-nex.html
October 29th, 2007 at 7:23 am
What about Tadahito Iguchi for 2B and Cano at 3B. I’m all for Cano at 3B.
October 29th, 2007 at 7:36 am
If the rumors are correct and Girardi is the new manager. Posada will likely follow A-Rod out the door. If this happens then the Yankees need to focus on 09, They will gain some valuable draft picks for the loss’s of A-Rod and Posada. I would add Mo to that list as we will not need a 12 million dollar a year closer on a team going no-where next season. The Yankees should do what they have been doing and draft high risk , high reward prospects. Keep investing in the foriegn players and come to the table after next season with a lot of money to spend on a decent crop of free agents. Even in this scenario the Yankees will field a respectable team next year that will push for a wildcard spot. They will probably miss the play-offs in 08 but I think it will be the last time for many seasons that they will not play in October. They have a strong young core of pitching and Cano and Melky are still very young. There will not be enough help available this off-season to put the Yankees over the top, so lets retool for 09 and beyond…
October 29th, 2007 at 8:03 am
Why would Posada leave , Girardi was his mentor? Yanks need to dump the money into pitching and go out and get a stop gap 3B if Betemit isn’t the answer. Who knows? Betemit has never played on a regular basis, he may be good.
October 29th, 2007 at 8:10 am
I don’t think the yankees get any picks for Arod.
As for Cabrera, yeah he can hit but he’s so one dimensional, this is what the yankees need to get away from. And rasner, karsetens, Wright have ZERO, say it with me, ZERO trade value. If you want Cabrera, start with Hughes, Kennedy/Horne and Melky. Its not happening.
And VOII, what makes you so sure Posada would leave it Girardi took over? Girardi mentored Posada for nearly 5 years. Unless you have some information I’ve never heard, I would assume they get along fine.
October 29th, 2007 at 9:22 am
Joe, the Yankees most certainly get 2 picks for A-Rod, as long as they offer him arbitration and he rejects it. This was discussed a while ago.
October 29th, 2007 at 9:51 am
Andrew…but from what I’ve heard it says in Arod’s contract that he can’t be offered arbitration. Now if thats true (im not totally sure) then no they get no picks.
October 29th, 2007 at 10:05 am
Yanks fans, why don’t you all ask your hamburger steinbrenner to send this guy to Cuba or Japan? At least that will cleanup some dirt from the American baseball.
At least send him to NL (Cubs?), so that I can gain back some respect for the Yankees. A-Rod is a pathetic looser. Even in the greatest and most hyped season that he’s had with the yanks, he only hit 54 longballs - big deal, Papi hit them last year even after being out for 27 games. And as always, once again, A-Rod proved himself in the post season - 1 RBI in 15 at bats, stricking out 6 times and stranding 8 runners in scoring position.
10 win player … are you serious?
October 29th, 2007 at 10:39 am
Cano at 3B, Kaz Matsui @ 2B when Colorado lets him go or Cano 3B, Betemit at 2B
October 29th, 2007 at 10:43 am
I’ve read different things in different places, but I am pretty sure there will be no compensation picks for a-rod. I think it’s similar to the no arbitration clause in most Japanese players’ contracts.
October 29th, 2007 at 10:48 am
There was a story in the post that attributed quotes by Posada stating he was uncomfortible with Girardi as manager. The Yankees would get 2 picks for A-Rod if the Team that signs him has a bottom 15 pick in round 1 then the Yanks get that and a sandwich pick between rounds 1 and 2 aka the Joba pick…If the Team that signs him has a top 15 pick in round 1 then the Yanks receive the very same sandwich pick and the 2nd rounder of the team that signs him. This would be the same for the other type A F/A the Yankees have Mo and Posada. So there is the potential for 6 additional picks in the first 2 rounds. That would be a windfall if the draft class is strong. I defer to EJ on that.
October 29th, 2007 at 10:53 am
Just imagine the Yankees with eight of the top 65 or 70 picks in next years draft. If they continue to draft well the Dynasty will be back and it will last for years. If they decline the option on Abreu they would get a least 1 more pick in the 1st two rounds. Or they can do what they did with Sheff and get a few good arms.
October 29th, 2007 at 11:38 am
You forgot to mention that defensively Cabrera is horrible. I would not trade Hughes nor Chamberlain let alone both for a DH….
October 29th, 2007 at 11:57 am
Beltre is a bad player. He only plays well and puts up numbers in contract years. I’d hate him to be a Yankee.
October 29th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Rumor has it arod wants to go home and play in Florida. Moving Hanley to center, arod to short, cabrera at 3rd. Bing Bam, Thank you mam.
October 29th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
There is no way the Marlins give ARod a contract. They spend less money in a year on the WHOLE team then it would get him to play just one year.
October 29th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
Poor Andy Phillips works so hard, but hasn’t been mentioned yet :-P
But seriously, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some platoon action going on at 3B and 1B, between Andy, Betemit, Shelley, and Giambi. If the Yanks decide to stand pat, it isn’t the end of the world.
For what it’s worth, Inside Edge gave Andy Phillips a “A+” clutch rating. That’s for all those people who wish we had Scott Brosius again.
October 29th, 2007 at 8:25 pm
How are people harping on Miggy Cabrera? Hes a bad IF (defensively) but he can also play the OF if we need him to (after Damon leaves). He entering his PRIME.
Hes getting to be on the same level as ALBERT PUJOLS! Does everyone remember this guy from the WS or what? He got brushed off by Clemens and came back to launch one off him.
Miggy is the ANSWER… He may be a defensive liability, but HELL, we’re trying to add offensive production to make up for A-Rods absence.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:45 am
I don’t want to give up pitching to get him, though. Certainly not Hughes, Chamberlain or Kennedy. The lower-tier guys, sure, but why would the Marlins do that?
The defense matters. The left side of the infield already has one bad defensive player. Adding an even worse one would make the infield defense terrible. Jeter & Cabrera make CM Wang cry. ;)
They guy can hit a ton, which is great. I’m all for that part. But you can’t just look at that. His defense is bad enough that it must be considered.
October 31st, 2007 at 12:38 am
[…] M. Cabrera for M. Cabrera? Well, I spent some time typing up an e-summation of the Yankees 3B situation and their in-house options (see below). I was going to do a trade scenario post, but EJ Fagan at Off The Facade did a great one already, so why not post it here. […]
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