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What To Expect From…The Trip Aces
In the weeks leading to the 2008 season, I will be running a feature called “What to expect from…” where I will attempt to predict the 2008 numbers for various players, mostly those who did not perform according to their track records in 2007 or are too young to have a track record. I will leave the advanced statistical analysis to Bill James and other relevant authorities. To be honest, I do not feel qualified to predict WARP for Johnny Damon in 2008. I will focus on the mainstream stats, and will touch upon specific numbers depending on the player. (i.e. At first base I discuss power numbers, at second base or center field I may add steals, doubles, etc.) The purpose of this exercise is to stimulate discussion on what kind of year you believe the player or players will have. We have already discussed the first base platoon, Robinson Cano, the left fielders, and Melky Cabrera.
Note: The other entires in this series contained projections from Bill James. He has not projected these players.
Last Season (MLB):
Hughes: 13 Games, 72.2IP, 5-3, 4.46 ERA 1.28 WHIP 58SO/29BB
Chamberlain: 19 Games, 24IP, 2-0, 0.38 ERA .71 WHIP 34SO/6BB
Kennedy: 3 Games, 19IP, 1-0, 1.89 ERA 1.16 WHIP 15SO/9BB
My projection:
Hughes: 28 Games, 166IP, 15-7, 3.71 ERA 1.23 WHIP 121SO/51BB
Chamberlain: 54 Games (15 GS), 132IP, 8-5, 3.92 ERA 1.28 WHIP 148SO/48BB
Kennedy: 30 Games, 177IP, 14-9, 4.43 ERA 1.38 WHIP 126SO/66BB
ZiPS:
Hughes: 26 Games, 141IP, 12-5, 3.70 ERA 1.25 WHIP 106SO/40BB
Chamberlain: 24 Games (24 GS), 134IP, 9-8, 4.43 ERA 1.26 WHIP 121SO/33BB
Kennedy: 27 Games, 148IP, 9-7, 4.38 ERA 1.35 WHIP 94SO/42BB
PECOTA:
Hughes: 27 Games, 152IP, 10-8, 4.42 ERA 1.39 WHIP 129SO/65BB
Chamberlain: 65 Games (15 GS), 145IP, 9-6 (1 SV), 3.39 ERA 1.24 WHIP 162SO/55BB
Kennedy: 38 Games (25 GS), 141IP, 9-7, 4.24 ERA 1.40 WHIP 120SO/68BB
There are a few salient points to be made about each player, so let us inspect them and the projections in the order they are listed.
Phil Hughes: PECOTA is not that high on Phil, while myself and ZiPS like him a lot. I find it interesting that PECOTA sees him repeating last season’s numbers, considering his injury in 2007 coupled with his resurgence in September. I believe he will take a big step forward this season, firmly establishing himself as the team’s third starter. His fastball has looked significantly stronger this spring than it did in the middle of last season, and his curveball has displayed some more bite. He has shown a bit of a tendency to allow the longball since joining the big club, which is something that he will need to work on to become a true ace caliber starter.
Joba Chamberlain: ZiPS’ projection has Joba as a starter, which means the numbers require a fairly strong downward the bullpen, albeit not at the level that he performed at last year. Expect an ERA in the mid-2.00’s using an additional two pitches after calling on them minimally for three months. I think his rate statistics will experience upwards inflation until he becomes comfortable in his new role, although I expect him to be fine as a starter come September. PECOTA, on the other hand, seems to love Joba. 162 strikeouts in 145 IP and a 3.39 ERA suggests that either he will again be ridiculously dominant in the bullpen, or that his transition to the rotation will be seamless (or some combination of the two). I am not as optimistic, but see and a WHIP around 1.15. I see him getting about 45 innings in the pen before transitioning adjustment now that we know he will begin the year in the pen. After such an adjustment, I would not be surprised to see ZiPS’ projection echo mine. I believe Joba will be very strong in to the rotation, where I expect him to struggle initially. It is not that simple to suddenly begin him having a very good rookie campaign.
Ian Kennedy: I am of the staunchest believers in Ian Kennedy, yet I believe that PECOTA is being a bit optimistic in Kennedy’s favor. I see him having more innings than the other systems do, but at a lower level of performance. I think Joba’s innings in the rotation will come at the expense of Mike Mussina, who I see bouncing back a bit but having a worse stat line than Ian. Because of stricter innings limits on the other two youths, I firmly believe Kennedy will surpass 170 innings. PECOTA likes Kennedy more than Hughes, although that may be the product of PECOTA projecting that Kennedy will spend some time in the bullpen, presumably once Joba enters the rotation. Regardless, a WHIP of 1.40 seems a bit high for an ERA of 4.24, especially for someone who is not going to strike out a ton of people. Kennedy has great command and very good control, but has no exceptional pitches in his repertoire, although he throws 4 pitches that have major league viability. His best offering is probably his changeup, and he is likely to struggle when his breaking pitches are off. That being said, I believe Ian has a really bright future, and will expect him to hold a spot in the middle of the Yankees rotation for a long time.
The Yankees’ farm system has recently produced three pitchers of high repute, all of whom had their first taste of the majors during the 2007 season. The question remains, can Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy match the lofty expectations that the club has for them? Joba, Ian, and Phil can either form the foundation of a fledgling dynasty, or go the way of the Mets’ infamous Generation K, the last troika of can’t-miss arms from New York. As Yankees fans, we can look forward to the 2008 season with hope that the trio can begin to live up to the moniker of The Trip Aces.
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26 Responses to “What To Expect From…The Trip Aces”
March 29th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
You can’t just a pitcher by one month (September). Every pitcher has a good month. And if Hughes looks so much stronger in ST, then how do you explain him getting beat up so badly to the tune of a 7.02 ERA, and 19 hits in less than 17 innings against semi-MLB lineups?
I understand why you’re excited about Hughes, but let’s be real. He’s yet to pitch a season in the majors. He’s going to go through growing pains like almost all of the best starters did when they first came up.
March 29th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
ST stats are meaningless. Anyone who has watched Hughes this spring has seen increased velocity and a sharper curveball. And I would suggest he went through his growing pains last year. I have a really good feeling about Hughes this year, as does ZiPS. I could be way off, and you can come to me at the end of the season and I will take the criticism if he fails to deliver.
March 29th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Then where is he messing up so badly that he’s been rocked? If his fast and curve are better, he has to be making a mistake with his other pitches that’s allowing half minor league lineups to beat him up.
And how could he have gone through his growing pains last season if he was as seriously injured as you’re suggesting? If that’s true he’ll have to go through learning how to pitch with his regular mechanics all over again. You can’t have it both ways that his performance last year was hindered by his injury, yet he somehow still managed to learn how to pitch against major leaguers as if he wasn’t injured.
March 29th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Where did I say he was seriously injured? In fact, I think being injured may have helped him in the long run, as he was forced to learn how to pitch without his best stuff.
And go look at the numbers put up by Bedard, F. Rodriguez, Verlander, Hamels this spring among many others. Pitchers will go through starts in the spring working on very specific things while entirely neglecting others. It is hard to put much stock in it. If he gets rocked in his first few regular season starts, then I might get a bit worried.
March 29th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
What are you talking about? Hughes’ fastball control has been horrible the entire spring, that’s why he’s done so poorly. I haven’t seen his mechanics look right (as they did in 2006) since he was injured last year.
March 29th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
I meant increased velocity on the fastball.
March 29th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Ask Kyle Farnsworth how that works out.
March 29th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Manny, if you’re going to judge by ST, then bye, bye, Buchholz and Lester. Hughes pitched 5 innings of 1ER ball, bringing his spring ERA LOWER (5.82) than Jon Lester (I’m not even going to bother mentioning Clay’s pathetic spring. Phil’s had a couple good starts and a couple bad ones. A couple bad starts where he’s struggling with the feel on his change is not a concern. Oh well, I can’t help mentioning Buchholz’ 1-2 w/ a 9.35 ERA, now THAT sucks!!! Clay hasn’t even had ONE halfway decent effort. BTW, Pecota KILLS Lester - he’s scheduled for a 5+ ERA this year. Hahahahaha! I love turning Sox’ fans arguments against themselves. This is so much fun!! As ridiculous as it is to bring up Spring stats, it turns out Phil’s stats are actually BETTER than the Sox own two supposed young studs - I love the irony - CLASSIC!
Moshe’s projection are right in line with all the major projection methods yet we still get Sox fans complaining, sigh. It seems like they don’t even bother reading the article to see if it’s fair or not. They just come to complain. I guess that’s normal - I don’t bother reading Sox blogs. I’m not sure why I’d bother unless I had some strange issues.
Regarding the projections, I think they’re pretty fair, but wind up being a bit low for the following two reasons:
1) Pecotas look at comparable players which doesn’t take into account the team that the guy is playing for. Phil and Ian should rack up several more wins b/c of the potent Yankee offense. With those projected ERAs, a Yankee starter should win at least 14 games.
2) Pecota lists comparable players. With pitchers, makeup is incredibly important once the player reaches the bigs and encounters adversity. From everything I’ve read, the Trip Aces makeups are off the charts. Jaret Wright as a prime comp for Hughes, but Phil is so much more intense, mature and competitive than Wright ever was. Wright also had arm trouble which isn’t factored in. Hey, you never know for sure with a young kids makeup. Who knows, Phil’s intensity could cause an Ankielesque freakout but it does look very promising right now. At least he’s not stealing computers. :-)
March 30th, 2008 at 8:15 am
Nobodies ever really been successful going with this many youngsters on a staff in memory.
Yossarian’s right though they do have a great offence to bail them out.
Experience says that these predictions are a bit rosy. At least one of the three will break down and miss significant time, if for no other reason than Murphy’s law.
I don’t see the team getting a wild card, maybe they win the division. Having this many freshman pitchers is a huge gamble on this years squad, but I for one am glad the team is taking a stand with their youth, and not a moment to soon.
They will be a respectable team in an extremely powerful league and use the year for experience.
Sorry for veering.
March 30th, 2008 at 9:08 am
Pete c. , that is fair, but I do not think anyone can predict injuries, so i predict based on the assumption that they will remain healthy.
March 30th, 2008 at 9:42 am
I understand Moshe. something always seems to happen though to make predictions stand on their head. The introduction of three rookies to a pitching staff in the same season, is a huge gamble that can’t be denied. Couple that with the age and or health factor at the other end of the spectrum i.e. Mo, Possada, Matsui, Giambi.
And a habit of always expect the unexpected that I can’t seem to put down makes me say that. Just to many question marks on this team.
But who knows, that would be one tasty plate of crow if I’m wrong.
March 30th, 2008 at 10:37 am
[…] What To Expect From…The Trip Aces - Moshe Mandel -The Bronx Block […]
March 30th, 2008 at 11:24 am
The convenient thing for the Yankees is that they have plenty of pitching depth if one of their guys were to go down. Mussina will be barking for starts, and you can always call up Horne or Marquez who seem to be ready to take a shot at the big leagues
March 30th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
FWIW, we had our fantasy auction last night, and Hughes went the highest at 12 units (to yours truly); Chamberlain went for 7, while Kennedy didn’t go at all. Interest and expectations among the 14 owners was that Hughes was the best for now…Chamberlain discounted as he will not start for a month or two. Everyone is keeping an eye on Kennedy, however.
March 30th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Yoss, you’re missing what I’m saying. I’m not saying Hughes isn’t going to be good because of his struggles in Spring. I’m saying that he hasn’t pitched well in spring, while Moshe is maintaining that his high 5 ERA performance has been good because he’s throwing the ball harder, even though he isn’t locating it. Ask Farnsworth how that works out.
Chip, Mussina is already in the rotation as he will be for most of the season. When Joba’s starting, Kennedy and Hughes will need Mussina to take their starts in order to stay under their innings limit.
As for Horne and Marquez, neither has pitched in Triple A and both allowed about a hit an inning last year with a WHIP of 1.30+ against Double A hitters. If someone goes down the Yankees are more likely to turn to be Igawa or Rasner.
March 30th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
I never agreed that he isnt locating, Manny, I said he hasnt improved his location from last year, when it was adequate. It has to improve, but with the added velocity on the fastball, he can get away with more mistakes. From what I have seen of him this spring, nothing has made me discard the projection that i wrote in January.
March 30th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
All you said is that his fastball looks “stronger”. Isn’t location possibly the largest factor in what makes a strong pitch though? Be real here. He’s struggled this spring and you’re complimenting his performance. He can’t locate his fastball and you say it looks strong.
March 30th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Are you really arguing semantics with me here? I said his fastball looks stronger, I explained twice I meant velocity. His command has been decent. If you watched all of his performances, you would know what I was talking about.
March 30th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Full Manny, you didn’t answer one of Yoss’s points: for someone who has been getting lots of publicity, even part of the current SI cover, Buchholz has been having a terrible Spring, what do you have to say in regards of it?
March 31st, 2008 at 2:17 am
i dont know which is worse, ‘Generation Trey’ or ‘Trip Aces’ (which sounds like a gang from West Side Story). simpler is better: ‘Big Three’ or just ‘The Trio’. my 2 cents.
March 31st, 2008 at 7:08 am
Thanks, Brent - You have to understand, Manny. It’s very annoying when Sox fans log in to bash a certain Yankee question mark when the Red Sox have the same exact problem, to an even worse degree. It’s hypocritical.
March 31st, 2008 at 11:49 am
Where is the increase in velocity?
I watched him Saturday night versus the Marlins and his fastball was 89-91…hardly overpowering.
He is a finesse pitcher and I believe he projects out to a number three at best….
March 31st, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Jose, I am wondering which game you watched, because MLB Gameday charted some of his pitches and all of his fastballs sat 93-95 except one. No offense, but I will take their word for it.
March 31st, 2008 at 2:35 pm
I was at the game…sat behind the plate and was following the velocity on the Marlins scoreboard.
I am familiar with the gun at Pro Player and can tell you it is pretty accurate.
As an example Joba was at 94-96 with one FB of 97….
Bruney was at 93-95….
Volstad of the Marlins was 90-93…
I believe the gun was pretty right on….
In addition you can also “see” when someone is in the mid 90’s….
You did not need a gun to tell you that Joba was throwing in the mid 90’s…nor that Bruney was bringing it.
Hughes was not at 93-94….I will take my own word on it…no offense meant or taken.
Peace
March 31st, 2008 at 2:37 pm
By the way the game wa the one played on Saturday night…Chad Moeller hit’s an inside the park HR to win it….
I think I was at the right venue?
March 31st, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Lol, Jose, I meant no offense, I’m sure you were there. MLB Gameday is known to be extremely accurate, so again, I will take their word on it, considering stadium guns are often inaccurate.
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