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Revisiting Yu Darvish
My second post on this site, on this past New Year’s, discussed the Yankees possible interest in Yu Darvish. At the time, I wrote:
Darvish is an Iranian-Japanese, 21 year old RHP for the Nippon Ham Fighters. In the 2007 season, he struck out 210 batters in 207 2/3 innings, with a 1.82 ERA. According to Was Watching, the Yankees have inquired into Darvish’s availability and will target him should he be posted following the 2008 season.
I have a feeling that the Darvish rumors are a whole lot of nothing. Darvish is 21 and can not become a free agent for a while. Japanese teams have shown a stubborn reluctance to post players until they are about ready to leave Japan to pursue a MLB career. Why would they trade the face of their team and a major source of revenue for the next few years for a posting fee that they can probably get regardless 3-4 years down the road?
Additionally, I would imagine that the price would be exorbitant. Darvish would be 4 years younger than Dice-K was when he was posted. With players like Jason Marquis earning paychecks north of 10 million annually, and GM’s locking up young pitching talents before they reach free agency, I could see a 22 year old phenom requiring a posting fee near 60 million, with 13 million dollars per year being a starting point in contract negotiations. After the Igawa and Irabu debacles, and with Dice-K being, to this point, decidedly average, the Yankees should think twice before making that kind of commitment.
Today, ESPN caught on to the Darvish story with an endless piece written by Jim Caple in which he profiles Darvish and discusses some of the questions and concerns I voiced back in January. Apparently, Darvish is having another stellar season, and there a rumblings about the possibility that he will be posted following the 2008 season. In regard to my first question, as to the unlikelihood that Yu will be posted at this point in his career (5 seasons away from free agency), Caple says,
A player may leave early under the posting system in which his team sells the right to negotiate with him to the highest bidder. Teams do this when they realize they will lose the player anyway and want to get some money in return (which is how Dice-K came to the Red Sox). They usually don’t do so until the penultimate year of the player’s enforced servitude, but Nippon Ham general manager Masao Yamada was quoted this spring saying that if a player requested to be posted earlier, his team would pretty much have to abide by his wishes. “We will admit a transfer, if it is allowed by the system,” he said. “We won’t chain our players.” […] One Fighters beat writer thinks Darvish is looking for a greater challenge and gives better than even odds the pitcher will be posted after this season. […] Oakland Athletics scout Randy Johnson, who played two seasons in Japan, says he thinks Darvish will be posted early but not for several years. Others believe he will never leave Japan.
It seems to be that no one really knows whether Darvish will be posted, as he has remained quiet on the issue. We may be addressing the Darvish situation three or four years too early. However, if he is posted after this season, what might the cost be?
Most everyone says if Darvish is posted, the bidding will easily top the $50 million the Seibu Lions received in exchange for the rights to Dice-K. After that, Johnson says, “The sky is the limit as to where the big-money teams would go.” Given the usual escalation in baseball contracts, it isn’t crazy to think the negotiating fee could go to $75 million.
That is an astounding 75 million dollars for the right to talk to a player, albeit an extremely talented pitcher in a market where young pitching is typically locked up before it ever reaches the market. Once you pay the fee, it is then incumbent upon the team to reach an agreement on contract terms with the player, something that could push the total value of the deal somewhere in the realm of 135 million over 6 seasons. If you think that a bidding war on this scale is unlikely, take a look at this eye opener of a quote from Darvish’s father.
And is there any team for which Farsad would like Yu to pitch? “I love the New York and Boston area. If he ever makes it there, I don’t know, it’s up to him, anywhere in the States is good, but I personally love New England.”
I do not know that Boston would be willing to pony up the necessary cash when they already have Dice-K and Beckett headlining their rotation, but Yu’s father was clearly sending a signal with that statement- Yu would be willing to come to New York and Boston. This puts some pressure directly on the head of whoever might be the Yankees GM at the time to blow all other offers out of the water.
The question remains, however, should the Yankees be willing to make such a humongous cash outlay for an unproven commodity? In January, I counseled against it. However, the early season struggles of Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy has shifted my mindset on this issue. It is not that I have given up on the Yankees homegrown guns. In fact, I still believe that both will end up having successful second halves. However, we have been exposed to the vagaries of developing young pitching, and have found that sometimes players will take time to adjust, or may never actually adjust at all. If it is prudent for any team to spend a huge sum of money on a pitcher that reportedly has the stuff to be a great MLB pitcher, that team is the Yankees. Great pitching is a commodity that is scarce, as well as being something that the Yankees need and can afford. I think the Yankees should go after Yu Darvish hard should he become available. What do you think?
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20 Responses to “Revisiting Yu Darvish”
May 13th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Darvish appears to be a tremendous talent. And even if he’s posted and the Yankees put up the necssary bid, is this kid a slam dunk to succeed? 3 things that stick out which could be a problem.
1) I’ve read he is very emotional on the mound. Is this good or bad? New York can eat an emotional kid alive.
2) He has thrown a lot of innings at such a young age. Dice-K was at least in his mid to late 20’s. Young pitchers usually develop arm problems after heavy usage in the 21-23 age range. Yu is only 21, how much can his arm handle?
3) He’s not exactly a power pitcher like Dice-K is, or even Nomo when he first got here. I believe (if I’m wrong someone please correct me) that Darvish throws in the low 90’s, which is fine, but Hughes threw in the low 90’s this year and people are ready to run him out of town for it. Strikeouts in Japan do not translate well to the MLB (see Igawa) so is his fastball good enough to succeed here? I heard his breaking pitches are exceptional, but will a smaller strikezone and a different style baseball affect the way he throws those pitches?
Personally I’d take a shot at the kid, I mean he is 21. But I want to make sure the the scouting department does this homework on this and his arm is examined closely. Still the kid is huge and from the footage I’ve seen on youtube he is very intimidating on the mound. All we have to do is get Jeter off short and give him some good defensive support :)
May 13th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Jap pitchers suck. waste of money, let him go somewhere else and be mediocre.
May 13th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Joe, I agree on all fronts, although I am sure Dice-K had the same amount of usage in his 21-23 years. And of course the scouts have to be moderately sure that he can enjoy sucess here. If they do decide that he should translate to MLB play well, the Yanks should get themselves involved.
May 13th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Moshe, I agree on Dice-K, and I wasn’t implyinig he didn’t have heavy usage. He actually from what I saw had way more usage than Darvish. My point was he was at least past the age when young pitchers break down. He may be the exception to the rule however. Darvish is just now entering that age range. So we shall see how his arm holds up. Personally I hope it does, because from teh footage Ive seen he looks like a lot of fun to watch.
May 13th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
I have seen footage of this kid & I have to say he is good. His fastball runs anywhere from 93-96 mph, sometimes higher, has a curve (that is very good), a change & I think a slider that is serviceable. Looking at the video http://youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g
you see what I mean.
He is not afraid to pitch inside
May 13th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
YANKS!!! GO GET HIM
May 13th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Yankees4ever….
are you sure on that fastball conversion? Maybe you are right and I’m wrong, but I was coming up with a fastball in the 88 to 92 mph range. Still doesn’t mean he can’t be successful wtih it, its just not going to overpower people.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
I say go get em. From the looks of it, it seems like his fastball has a lot of movement to it.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
joe G, you are right, 93 MPH was the high end. however, if he were to add about 10-20 lbs, then that could translate to the numbers I mentioned. Maybe they can do that to Edwar Ramirez.
May 13th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
I suggest the Yanks go after Ben Sheets or C.C. Sabathia they might not be as exciting but they both throw mid 90’s with sharp stuff plus this Darvish guy looks good but he could go Kei Igawa on us, and i cant imagine how owned the Yanks would feel if they paid 150 mil for a bust!
May 13th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Sheets is never healthy, while Sabathia looks like a breakdown waiting to happen. I am not so sure I look at either of those guys.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Sheets is healthy this year and those are the only two arms on the FA market so unless Joba turns into a lights out starter those are your option although its cute to play the lets start the young guys card next year both mussina and pettitte are gone someones gotta grab the ball every fifth day and it cant be a bunch of 22 year old guys thats called the pirates
May 13th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Mussina and Pettitte are gone after this year who is gonna pick up the ball every fifth day even if Joba becomes an ace then its joba hughes kennedy and wang thats not even five assuming they all pitch great which wont happen we need a solid guy to help this rotation if C.C. bounces back and is 18-8 in september with a 3 ERA n 200 K’s every yankee fan on the block will be begging for him, believe that n check out the FA;s after this year slim pickin’s outside those 2 guys
May 14th, 2008 at 5:47 am
I think people saying he’ll cost more than Matsuzaka aren’t thinking about it. Who would be there to bid on him? Not the Sox, for anywhere near the 50 million they paid last year anyway. Not the Mets, after the Santana contract. Not the Giants, after Zito. Unlikely the Angels, Mathews Jr., Hunter and Guererro being so expensive. The Dodgers?
I just don’t see where this supposed bidding war’ll come from. I think if he does post, big if, you bid in the Dice-K range. If someone goes nuts over him, they won’t be a rival anyway.
May 14th, 2008 at 6:07 am
That’s actually an excellent point, although I could see the Dodgers making a push for him, possibly the Cubs, as well as a surprise team that needs pitching and wants to make a huge splash (maybe Texas?).
May 14th, 2008 at 8:22 am
They should put a ridiculously stupid bid out there, they are all sealed anyway, the money they spent for him will be returned tenfold with merchandise & ticket sales. I know that the Yanks got burned the last two pitchers they got from there, but this guy is only 21 and can be molded. Besides, he is constantly looking to improve himself.
Look at this way, it’s only money and it isn’t yours.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
As far as another team getting involved the mariners would probably be right in there, they have a huge asian market and they have the money to spend on pitching talent, and if they got him that would be one hell of a rotation. One of my things about the yanks getting him is that we have about 12 quality righties that are within 2 years of being ready and at least half of those guys are just as talented as this guy. I would rather get a lefty,probably CC and get another hitter to protect A-rod, maybe Tex since we need a 1st baseman anyways. If he gets posted after this year theres no way the yanks are going to spend the money to get all 3 and i think the 1st two would benefit the team more especially with all the pitching we have in the minors and considering our previous experiences with japanize pitchers, IMO i’ll pass
May 15th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Without question the Yankees should go after this guy should he be posted. He is definitely worth the risk and the Yankees should really break out the checkbook here. Anyone with half a brain can see that there is no way he is another Igawa. Of course I am not saying he will never struggle or have no growing pains but give me a break this kid is 21 and look at his stuff. Also from what I can tell from his interviews and articles about him he is supremely confident, almost to the point of arrogance, but to me this is even more of a reason to go after him. He seems like the type that would thrive under pressure and under the bright lights of New York. Go after him Cashman!!!!
May 16th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Darvish has been clocked as high as 97mph and usually throws in the low 90’s, but he throws about seven pitches (two and four seam fastball, curve, slider, sinker, cutter, changeup and he also at least used to throw either a knuckler or a knuckle curve at Tohoku High School). Seattle offered Darvish a seven figure contract when he gruduuated from high school and his father wanted to accept the deal, but Yu decided to stay in Japan and somehow ended up with Nippon Ham (boy, did they get lucky), where, after some first year ups and downs, he has slowly matured. He is still growing and should put on another 15 pounds or so.
As for the composure issue, that was true his rookie year. I believe, however, that is less of a problem now.
His pitch counts the last couple of years have been very good thanks to Trey Hillman’s tutelage and he has been pretty economical, too, under former Kintetsu catcher and manager Masataka Nashida. I expect Seattle, which also made a seven figure run at now Fighters rookie infielder Sho Nakata, to be a big player in this as well as the Yankees, especially since free agent to be Koji Uehara, the Yomiuri righthander, kinda showing signs that he might be headed for the downside of his career. He is presently in the minors after opponents hit nearly .300 against him in the early going and losing some life on his heater.
I would also expect both Boston, the Mets and the Yankees to make substantial offers for Chunichi free agent lefty closer Hitoki Iwase, who, to be very simplistic about it, is Hideki Okajima on crack. Iwase is the only man since hall of famer Kazuhisa Inao in the 1960’s to rack up more than 500 appearances and post a lifetime ERA under 2.00. Iwase has outstanding control and his main breaking pitch is a slider plus he has been remarkably healthy despite a little shoulder hitch in his delivery that has made Japanese scouts wonder when he would blow the shoulder out. But it hasn’t happened and he just keeps on truckin’.
May 30th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Yankees Go for him he could really help the pitching staff and the yankees organiztion we want that 27 title we need the help we could get look at his numbers thats not every day you see something like that i am a yankee fan never scene you guys win a title and i want to see one and yu darvish would help alot
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