MVN - a New York Yankees blog
The Bronx Block
Old School Baseball
I consider myself a pretty simple person. With that, I like my sports to be simple, namely a statistic-driven sport like baseball. Enter sabermetrics. In recent years, baseball has had an influx of new stats take over the sport. Am I the only one who finds these stats to be too much?
At 20 years old, I don’t have the credentials to know about many “old school” things. I know “old school” Donkey Kong, Power Rangers, and the movie Old School. I can’t really say that I know “old school” baseball. However, when it comes to the new statistics, I long for the day that “old school” ruled baseball.
When I look at a player, there are four stats that really matter to me: batting average, home runs, RBI’s, and runs scored. Recently, I have had to take up Slugging percentage, OPS, and OBP. While I don’t have a problem with the latter, all of these excess statistics just drive me crazy. Here is an example of a few:
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
DIPS: Defense independent pitching statistics
LIPS: Late-inning pressure situations
VORP: Value over replacement player
Okay, some of these are pretty neat. But do we really need a stat that shows us the percentage of a player’s clutchness? The same goes for pitchers, who no longer have to worry about their ERA. Instead, they have to worry about things like Peripheral ERA or DIPS.
One of the worst problems is that they’re too damn mathematical. I hate math. Does it need to interfere with the sport I love? We all know how a batting average is figured: Hits/At-Bats. Then you look at something like Equivalent Average, which basically measures a hitters production in a context independent of park and league effects:
EqA=H+TB+1.5 * (BB+HBP)+SB+SH+SF/AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF+CS+SB/3
Need I say more? People are always finding inventive ways to enjoy the game more. Fantasy sports has been a huge success. Unfortunately, so has this barrage of numbers. In fact, basketball is even trying to invent a sabermetrics system. To me, these are just made up statistics that are meaningless. When players are voted to the All-Star team, do you think the voters take into account their VORP? Is their an award handed out to the player with the best FBV? Can LIPS really tell you whether or not Derek Jeter is a clutch player?
Perhaps I’m overreacting, but I just don’t care about a player’s Out probability added above average. I like the days of “old school” stats, where BA and HR where the only things that mattered. I respect the people that toil in sabermetrics, especially here at MVN. However, I can’t bring myself to check out a team’s Pythagorean Expectation. Am I crazy? Can’t I just be old school?
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17 Responses to “Old School Baseball”
July 21st, 2008 at 10:29 am
overreaction
chillax
July 21st, 2008 at 10:42 am
As you point out, people derive enjoyment from the game in different ways. I personally really enjoy the greater interest in statistics and further acceptance of sabremetrics it among fans. 10 years ago you’d have been hard-pressed to hear an announcer mention OBP let alone have it flashed on-screen for every batter…we think of that stat as common-place among any sports discussion now, but it was (and to some extent still is) looked down upon as meaningless by the old guard of Joe Morgan, Murry Chass, et al. I kind say that my own interest in looking at the game has increased as a result of learning more about different statistics.
While the stats you mention are not mainstream, baseball has always been very much a game that people take huge interest in from a numbers standpoint. 500 HR (until the steroid era) was a plateau that always fascinated fans, a .300 batting average, a 100 RBI season, Dimaggio’s hitting streak, Ripken’s consecutive games, Ted Williams .400 avg, etc etc.
While the stats you mention may be more difficult to calculate on your own without an excel spreadsheet or a BP subscription, I think anything that increases interest among fans is good for the game. It doesn’t hurt anybody and it doesn’t make someone that doesn’t use those numbers have a less valid opinion. Not sure if a reluctance to use VORP makes you “old school” or not but you, along with all the other writers here at BB, write well so your articles are compelling regardless.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:17 am
I’d like to think keeping up with new statistics and utilizing their significance in your analysis is simply part of being an educated sports fan. But hey, maybe that’s just me.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:19 am
Exactly, Phil. I love the new stats, and constantly argue with my brother, who is not a big time believer in them. Both of our points of view are valid, and he is not any less a fan for not knowing what DiPs is. The funny thing is, some of the old time stats are more complicated than the new ones. For example, batting average is a more confusing computation than OBP. I think the logic behind it is what made it more popular. Stats that purport to take the human element out of the game and distill performances down to pure numbers are the ones that will ultimately have a hard time being accepted.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:27 am
I have to think I come down more on Jamies side than anyone elses on this subject(big shock there) but when you get down to it the only stat that matter is W/L.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:48 am
Its just a question of whether you want to take a simplistic look at things (win-loss) or go behind those two numbers and look for deeper analysis. I can’t get enough analysis, so W-L is way too simplistic for me.
Plus the new stats are just the old stats with different levels of importance attached to them to try and illustrate different things - they need not interfere with enjoyment of the game.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:50 am
When looking at a batters numbers I like to look at his average, ops, on base percentage and (in my opinion) career stats versus the pitcher hes facing. The first three will tell you the type of year hes having and the likelihood of whether he’ll get on base or get that hit the team needs. The latter is just extremely interesting. Where as a player may be hitting .322 with a .524 OPS is killer, his numbers versus todays opposing pitcher are .122 with a .354 OPS. Some batters just dont hit certain pitchers. Maybe they dont see the ball well, maybe the pitchers delivery throws him off, who knows. But its very telling.
Example. Yesterday in the 5th inning of the Yanks/A’s game, with a man on 1st and 1 out the pitcher opt’ed to intentionally walk Jason Giambi who was 3 for his last 19, in favor of pitching to the red hot Robby Cano. In a 1-1, with the chance to get the DP already a possibility, walking Giambi seemed like a ridiculous move. It worked out for the pitcher as he got Cano to hit into the DP. I found out, through YES’ broadcasting crew that Giambi was 6 for 8 with 3 home runs, 2 walks, 2 doubles and a single against that pitcher. Hmph…..interesting. 2 innings later Giambi again came to the plate in a 1-1 game. This time with 1 out and no one on. The pitcher pitched to him and Giambi crushed a solo home run that would later be the decisive run in a 2-1 Yankee victory.
That, my friends, is why the stat I mentioned is useful!
July 21st, 2008 at 12:36 pm
“Recently, I have had to take up Slugging percentage, OPS, and OBP”
Seriously? You recently figured out that Slugging and OBP were useful stats?
Batting average and a pitchers W/L are two of the “old school” stats that are pretty much useless today. OBP, VORP, OPS+ and ERA+ are far more useful when evaluating a player.
July 21st, 2008 at 1:46 pm
No, you don’t have to look at them. But if you want to know what’s REALLY going on, you should. Or you should at least read an article about them and just remember the conclusion.
There are 2 important distinctions to be made.
1) Numbers vs. enjoying the game. Obviously, when I go to a game, or when my favorite team is in the World Series, I just want them to win. I don’t care how, I don’t care if it’s on errors, or because of luck. I’m a fan, pure and simple.
2) Past performance vs. future projections. Looking at ERA will tell you who gave up fewer runs last year, last week, yesterday, or whatever. But if you want to know who is better going forward, you are doing yourself a great disservice by looking at “traditional” stats.
It has been proven beyond any doubt that, for example, FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than current ERA is. If you are interested in the quality of your team, want to play GM (as everyone does), etc., I cannot comprehend how anyone would prefer to use the old stats.
If you don’t like the math, you don’t have to pay attention to it. You should just know that if one guy has a 3.00 FIP and a 4.50 ERA, and another has a 4.50 FIP and a 3.00 ERA, then the first one is more likely to have a better ERA going forward.
How can you possibly say you prefer to ignore FIP?
July 21st, 2008 at 1:49 pm
In summary:
If you want to make any comments regarding:
a) the future success of players or teams
b) which player is “better” (as opposed to which player had better results in the past)
c) what player your favorite team should trade, cut, sign, trade for, etc.
d) who should be starting for your team, or any team
etc.
Then you are greatly harming yourself by only looking at the old-school stats. Baseball is all about predicting the future, as well as we possibly can. And these stats are all better ways to do it.
July 21st, 2008 at 2:19 pm
The old stats give you a nice quick reasonably accurate read on a player’s ability without getting bogged down. The new ones can be very informative when digging deeper and can open up some interesting questions. However, I’m more old school than all of you guys. I like to believe my eyes. For example, we’ve had stat guys on this site who have actually recommended playing Betemit over Jeter because of some formula about getting to ground balls! You’ve got to know how to interpret all of these stats - what to keep and what to throw away.
July 21st, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Well Jeter does have the worst range of any SS.
July 21st, 2008 at 3:25 pm
I love VORP as a quick way to compare a player’s overall value. I also love BABIP as a stat to look at because I find that it often reflects my own observations (”Geez, Cano is hitting into a lot of bad luck”). It’s a great stat to use when you want to call BS on a guy whose numbers make him look a lot better than you think he actually is. I think a lot of the stats are fun b/c they allow us to talk about prospects and players that none of us have actually seen before. What kind of stuff does this guy have? I can’t find a real scouting report but his GO/AO and K/9 indicates that he’s a ground ball type guy and keeps the ball down but doesn’t blow anyone away. If you’ve seen a guy extensively, then of course, you generally go with your instincts and your eye, but for everyone else, it’s nice to use these more detailed stats to construct a rough picture of what kind of player he is.
July 21st, 2008 at 3:46 pm
I can understand keeping track of stats beyond BA, RBI, HR, R, SLG, and OBP if you are in the employ of the New York Yankees, if not, then you’re just a loser.
July 21st, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Wow, that is such an insightful, well-reasoned, thoughtful comment, Sunshine. I particularly love the intricate logic and detailed examples that you used to back up your brilliant observation. You must be extremely smart and popular with the ladies, too.
July 21st, 2008 at 9:09 pm
As a matter of fact, this morning I had sex with a 22 year old girl twice.
July 22nd, 2008 at 7:52 am
Now you need to untie her and drop her back off at the trailer park you abducted her from.
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