Washington Nationals

Sad facts of the day

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:08:22 +0000

Fact #1: The NL East is the worst division in baseball. The division leader would be no better than 3rd in any other division and would be 5th in the AL East.

Fact #2: The Nats would need to win 16 games in a row and have the Braves lose 16 in a row to climb into 4th place in the NL East.

Happy 4th. Don't trade Dunn!

FB365's Morning Drive 7/2/09

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:41:55 +0000

Jordan Zimmermann is getting a lot of fantasy love lately. I was on this guy in late April. He out-pitched Josh Johnson yesterday.

Cody Ross hit his 14th bomb of the season of newly acquired Sean Burnett. Ross is slugging .633 vs. left handed pitching this season.

Josh Johnson left the game after only 3.1 innings. No injury, just a rain delay and 4 walks to go with a rising pitch count.

Ricky Romero continues to impress. He's stranding over 85% of runners and his FIP is a run higher than his ERA before his start yesterday. Walks and the AL East are my concerns, but he's definitely a guy worth rostering right now. He's only owned in 33% of Yahoo! leagues.

Brad Bergesen impressed against the Red Sox. He's not going to strikeout a ton of guys, but he's keeping the ball on the ground and keeping the walks to a minimum. His next start comes against the Mariners. If you need a spot start, he's worth another go.

Yovani Gallardo struck out a career high 12 in 7 IP against the Mets. If Gallardo can reduce his walk rate, he's basically Lincecum light.

Gil Meche, coming off a "dead arm" period, threw 121 pitches in only 6 innings. His arm looked fine with a fastball sitting in the mid 90's, but minor injuries have been an issue this season. If I'm A Meche owner (or a Royals fan) I'm not happy about the pitch count at all.

Billy Butler, 4-4, continues to outperform James Loney, but it seems no one is paying attention.

Jason Hammel has been pitching well for the Rockies lately. He's not quite the ground ball pitcher Aaron Cooks is, but he is getting enough groundballs and limiting walks to be an NL-only add.

Troy Tulowitzki got cold just as fast as he got hot two weeks ago. I think he'll finish with an AVG around .270.

Jimmy Rollins took another o'fer, but so did most of the Phillies against Jair Jurjjens who only allowed 1 hit.

Justin Verlander was touched up last night. That makes two less than spectacular starts in a row. I'm not reading much into it.

Jose Contreras has struck out 8 batters in 3 of his last 4 starts.

Randy Wells pitched well again and got his third straight win. I'd start him again at home vs the Braves in his next start.

Johnny Cueto brought back the strikeout last night against the D-Backs. Of course the D-Backs are second only to the Marlins in team strikeouts.

Kevin Millwood and Jered Weaver squared off in a battle of the "sell highs". Neither faired particularly well and neither are likely to repeat their first half numbers in the second half.

Nelson Cruz left with a back injury. It didn't sound serious, but I never like to hear about back problems. Keep an eye on the situation.

Albert Pujols did not hit a homerun, but he did go 2-2 with a stolen base. Can he go 60/20!!? Not likely, but this is just amazing to watch.

Matt Cain continues to strand runners like crazy. 8 Cardinals left on base and only 3 strikeouts.

Adam Wainwright struck out a career high 12 in 9 innings. He's throwing a curveball or slider on nearly 40% of his pitches. That combined with only 132 innings pitched last season raises a bit of a red flag for potential time missed later this season.

Adrian Gonzalez did play last night after leaving the game with a knee injury the night before. He went 0-3 in the game and is now hitting .268.

Those going out... (including Dukes)

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 04:34:07 +0000

Told you about Burnett...

Joel Hanrahan

At 27 he's probably older than you think so it's time to stop saying "maybe he'll be..." and starting saying "this is what he is"

OK first of all he strikes out a ton of batters. 9.00+ K/9 the last two years. This isn't a fluke. Basically his minor league numbers don't drop below 7.2 K/9. Well, how is his walk rate? Could be better. 4.5 BB/9 last year, 3.9 this year. Still with those two ratios you'd expect a better season than the Bacsikian one he's tossing out so far.

Is he giving up too many homeruns? Not really, 0.83 HR/9.

Too many hits in general? Oh, there you go. His LD% has shot back up to 25% (same as it was in his rough 2007) and it shows; 50 hits in 32.2 innings. Thing is, that is far too many. We'd expect a 25% LD rate to be about a .370 BABIP. No doubt that's high. But what does he have this year? .451! That's going to drop. Also his LOB% is 61.5%. What's that mean? He's been letting in far more baserunners than you would expect. All that can be seen in his FIP: 3.56. He shouldn't be sitting there with a 7.00+ ERA.

Some may say 2008 was the fluke and this season is just a return to his 2007 form. This isn't 2007. Yes, he was still getting hit hard but in that year his K's were down and his BBs were waaay up. This year he is getting tremendously unlucky.

Hanrahan is going to get better and fast. Is he going to be that lights-out closer that the Nats were once hoping? Probably not. Too many walks and too many hits for that and little time for improvement. But a serviceable at some times dominant reliever? Sure.

Lastings Milledge

OK this isn't really fair because I'm a card carrying member of the Lastings Milledge fan club but let's review.

As a 19 year old (2004) in Class A, Lastings hit .340 / .401 / .580. As a 20 year old in Class AA, Lastings hit .337 / .392 / .487. As a 21 year old in Class AAA, .277 / .388 / .440 while bouncing in and out of the majors. All signs were pointing to a productive major league career, if not a star. What happened? Well no one can be sure but my guess is a mix of simple adversity and misguided attempts to become a player he wasn't.

Late in 2006, he was called out by his teammates. In 2007 a foot injury limited him to half a season. He was also shamed that year for his rap video antics. He quickly became a target for blame and was shipped out to the Nats.

Once here it became apparent to everyone, including Milledge, that he wasn't likely ever going to be that power hitter that usually occupies a corner OF spot. Is it terrible that he become a .310-.329 15-20 homer type player? Well apparently so if he's manning right or left field. So that left Milledge to either (1) adjust his swing to try to be that power hitter OR (2) try to play CF. Both ideas are horrible. Milledge's development suffered. This year Milledge certainly regressed. He's having a harder time recognizing good pitches and making good contact when he does swing.

Is that all the Nats fault though? I'm not so sure. They didn't handle Milledge as best as they could, but Milledge didn't take to direction as well as he could have, seemingly half-heatedly trying to work on playing center. Milledge apparently needs to not be directed, but really coddled and major leagues team have a hard time doing that, even for a player that might have the talent to be say... a Tony Gwynn Ultra-Lite. I think the Pirates will give Milledge that breath of fresh air that he needs. I think that will get him back on track. But if something happens between now and then - the Pirates jerking him around position wise - someone else questioning his work habits - it could all disinegrate all over again.

In the end the trade will depend on the Pirates and Milledge. I will put money down now that Hanrahan will blow Burnett out of the water as a reliever, both for the remainder of this year and the remainder of their careers. I also guarantee Morgan will be a very decent player during his Nats career. Since a position player is worth more than a reliever that gives the Nats the edge. But if the Pirates can manage Milledge, something that neither the "old-school" Mets or the dysfunctional Nats could, they should get at least a decent player by him, and the "win".

Elijah Dukes

Why is Dukes being sent down? Because the Nats want to play Morgan, and because they want to showcase Dunn and Willingham and Harris and Johnson who they all may very likely deal in the next month. Dukes should be playing everyday and can't up here so down he goes. I know it seems like a demotion in the face of a much inferior player (Kearns!) but really the Nats had no choice.

Those coming in...

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:26:47 +0000

OK took a longer look at it yesterday and...

Sean Burnett

He IS getting by with smoke and mirrors. I said that initially because his K-rate and BB-rate hadn't changed much from last year and yet his ERA drastically improved.

2008: 4.76 6.67 K/9, 5.40 BB/9

2009: 3.08 6.40 K/9, 4.18 BB/9

Ok that is an improvement and you can also point to a slight improvement in giving up the longball (1.11 HR/9 to 0.84 HR/9) but still over a run and a half improvement? His FIP is 4.50, his opponents BABIP is .218 his LOB% is 78.2%. Basically all fancy stat indicators say he's going to regress. And it could be hard and fast. A 24.1% LD rate? That's not good.

For those not into fancy stats here are some other sobering numbers

2007 ERA : 4.48.

2006 ERA : 5.16

This was in AAA. Sure he was on the young side and starting, but those numbers point to a fairly hittable pitcher. His strikeouts have gone up with the move to the bullpen but so have his walks. He is young but not young enough that I expect an epiphany to come. Basically Nats fans have to hope that he keeps having one of those seasons OR that he is limited to facing lefties, who despite the good luck Burnett's had against them (BABIP .200) he does strike them out at a strong rate. (12K and 4 BB in 60 PA)

Nyjer Morgan

I don't know fielding. From what little I glean it looks like he was a superior corner OF, and an above average CF though he's played a lot more corner OF than center over the years. I feel confident that the guy will be no worse than average in center though, and even that is a definite step up.

Hitting wise. Well his 3 year average seems to be spot on to the type of player he is

.286 / .351 / .376

He can get hits and he gets on base at a clip that's not embarrassing, but he's got NO power. So he's better than Endy (career OBP .312) at the plate. Think of him as Endy+.

Can the Nats expect anything more... well maybe. As he currently stands he's a useful starter, but as many have noted not a significant upgrade over new fan-fave Willie Harris. Harris has a better eye and more power, but isn't as good at getting base hits and is not as speedy on the basepaths. It looks like the Nats are trading one set of skills for another. But there is more to consider

Willie Harris is 31 and before 2007 he had never had a season that would pass as useful. Sure, maybe something did click as he rounded 30, but age is going to come into play anyday now. He's not the Nats CF going into the future and even next year is iffy.

As for Morgan, at 29 (tomorrow) he has a couple years on Harris. He also has a history of better batting averages than he has now. .294 last year, .299 this year, over .300 basically all throughout the minors. If he can keep his apparent increase in strike recognition and raise that batting average back up he may move from a decent OF, to a good one. We're talking the potential of .300 / .390 OBP here. I don't think that's crazy.

Sean Burnett is just a log on the fire. Nyjer Morgan could be much more.

A real mystery: The continuing employment of Austin Kearns

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:31:28 -0500

Let's just establish this immediately: Austin Kearns is not a quality Major League Baseball player. He was at one time, 2007 was the last time, but no longer. He's 29 years old, doesn't play the outfield well, is batting .197 with 3 HR and 16 RBI, and slugging percentage of .322 [actually an improvement over last season]. In other words, he doesn't really belong in the Majors, not even on the worst team in the Majors. He might do better in AAA, but considering his age it is probably time for Mr Kearns to consider his life after baseball. [That's Mr Kearns in the photo to the right, doing what he does not do best -- playing baseball.]

And yet, he continues to be employed by the worst team in the Majors, the Washington Nationals. He doesn't play every day, but he does play often enough to remind Nats fans of how utterly horrid the team is right now. And when the Nats needed to send a player to the minors to make room on their roster, they sent OF Elijah Dukes instead of Kearns. Granted, Dukes is hardly tearing up the league, but his numbers are better than Kearns' across the board and he's younger, too, at 25. Sending Dukes down while leaving Kearns on the roster is dumb as shi a difficult decision to understand.

Is Kearns still on the roster because he is making $6.3 million this year? Is that the reason? If so, it must be the only reason. Understandably, the Nats are finding it difficult to trade Kearns. Another way to go, at this point, is to simply cut Kearns and eat his salary. If nothing else, it would demonstrate to the fans that the possibility exists that the Lerners occasionally allow their decisions to be affected by something other than money.

BDD: The Nationals Don't Get It

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:10:00 -0800

In my latest piece at BDD, I look at the Morgan/Milledge + others trade from the Nationals side.

Check it out.

Links For Wednesday; Mariotti, Red Sox, Zorilla Interview

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:25:00 -0500

Ladies and gentlemen, here are your links for Wednesday. And, since we took off yesterday, you get double the fun...

Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Jeff Suppan, due to make $12.75-M this season, has struggled so far in 2009. Suppan is currently 5-6 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, a performance that has hovered near replacement-level.

So how are Brewer fans taking out their frustration, you ask? By attempting to auction off Suppan on eBay.

Tom Verducci published his All-Star ballot yesterday. You can compare his picks to the staff of Around the Majors' by following the link.

Eric Seidman had an interesting post over the weekend about why we need to consider sample sizes before making conclusions about a player's hot streak or slump.

Friend of the site Sarah Green produced her All-Hot Team over at UmpBump.

This next link deserves its own post, really. Tommy Rancel, who attempted to unlock the Zobrist Code earlier this spring, returns with Part Two. This time, though, Rancel went straight to the man, the legend, Zorillia himself.

Richard Justice had a nice profile on reliever LaTroy Hawkins.

FanHouse blogger (and former hated Sun Times columnist) Jay Mariotti says that steroid guessing is bad journalism, becoming yet another writer from the "old guard" to call out Midwest Sports Report blogger Jerrod Morris. It didn't take long for Morris, the blogger who penned the infamous Raul Ibanez post, to fire back.

I, of course, side with Morris here, but ATM is fair and balanced, so I present you with both sides.

Crazy contest between the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox last night. I turned the game on when I got home from work. After watching the Boston offense light up Camden Yards in the early innings, I left the broadcast on in the other room while I took care of some chores around my apartment. A few hours later, it dawned on me that the announcers had stopped talking. Thus, I assumed the game was over, with the Red Sox taking a win in dominant fashion. When I heard the voice of Dennis Eckersley again about an hour later, I just assumed that NESN was airing a replay of the earlier game. It turns out, though, there was a lengthy rain delay and the Boston bullpen, among the best in the game, imploded when play resumed, allowing the Orioles to get back in the game. Baltimore eventually came out victorious, winning 11-10.

The Orioles made history, writes Jeff Zrebieck.

Ozzie Guillen to the Cubs down the road?

Brian Cashman told reporters that the Eric Hinske deal made sense for the New York Yankees.

Pulling a Buster Olney here: Matt Garza was the man for the Tampa Bay Rays, writes Joe Smith.

St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus is ready to begin rehabbing in Florida, writes Joe Strauss.

Colorado Rockies right-hander Jason Marquis shut down the Los Angeles Dodgers. Jim Peltz says that Marquis is the Rockies' ace. While that may be a stretch, the veteran has been huge for Colorado, leading the charge in their hot streak. No promises, but he may be the topic of a future post.

The Cincinnati Reds are definitely looking for a bat, according to general manager Walt Jocketty, whose not afraid to make a deal.

Dave Cameron had a different take on the Nats-Pirates swap.

In an absolute must read, Joe Posnanski and Bill James (what a team, by the way) discuss the age-33 falloff phenomenon.

Mike Axisa, our guest on Minor League Notebook Weekly this week, did a Q & A with Ben Badler of Baseball America.

Jerry Crasnick discusses the Indians' fall in his latest. The Cleveland offensive woes even prompted one SB Nation poster to come up with a short play: Dysfunction at the Bat.

Get ready, America: Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel are set to make their minor league debuts.

Busy Day For Bucs

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 07:50:00 -0500

The Pittsburgh Pirates had a busy day on Tuesday, pulling the trigger on two different trades.

In the first move, Pittsburgh sent veteran Eric Hinske to the New York Yankees in exchange for low-level minor leaguers Casey Erickson and Eric Fryer.

While Erickson and Fryer have limited upside, the Pirates really didn't have any need to keep Hinske on the roster anymore. Thus, it's hard to knock the organization for trying to get some value in return, anything, for the soon-to-be free-agent's services.

Erickson, already 24 years old and still pitching in A-Ball, is certainly not an elite prospect. Plus, he has already transformed into a reliever, limiting his potential value down the road. He has been successful at Charleston in the Carolina League, though, posting a 2.25 ERA and 2.54 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark. The 6-foot-3 right-hander, a 10th-round selection out of junior college back in 2006, has produced rates of 7.57 K/9 and 2.66 BB/9 without allowing a home run in 44.1 innings pitched.

Erickson, who was also drafted by the Chicago Cubs out of high school in 2004, can touch 94 MPH on the radar gun, but generally sits in the low-90s with his fastball. He also mixes in an average curve ball and improving change-up. Barring a major breakout or improvement in velocity, though, he profiles as nothing more than a marginal major league reliever; he didn't make the Yankees' organization Top 20 list by any major scouting publication.

Fryer has now been traded twice in the past four months; the Milwaukee Brewers sent him to New York in exchange for left-hander Chase Wright--the guy who gave up four consecutive home runs to the Boston Red Sox--back in spring training. Like Erickson, he is 23 years old and has been playing against much younger competition for the Tampa Yankees in the Florida State League. The Ohio State product has put up a career minor league line of .286/.363/.424 and .787 OPS since being drafted by the Brewers in the 10th round of the 2007 draft. He's limited defensively, however, and unlikely to stick at catcher long term. Once he moves to another position on the diamond, his value will diminish greatly. Making matters worse, he has struggled to produce against more advanced pitching in 2009, batting just .250/.333/.344 with a .320 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in 255 plate appearances.

As Kevin Goldstein wrote on his Twitter account, the pair of prospects solely represents bodies to add to the Pittsburgh farm system. While the return is hardly anything to write home about, though, it's clear that Hinske was expendable; a free agent at the end of the season, he was obviously unlikely to be part of the next truly great Pirates team and cleared waivers two weeks ago. Thus, the thought processes used--even though the players may never make an impact--were sound, also providing a bit of payroll relief.

On the Yankees' end, Hinske was a nice pickup. The former Rookie of the Year has struggled in his first year with the Pirates, posting a line of .255/.373/.368 with just a single home run. His OPS+ of 103 is above average, but his .333 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) will come down to earth when his luck regresses back to the mean. The biggest surprise with him so far, though, is the sudden power outage. In a comeback performance with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008, he came out raking and finished with 20 homers and a solid .347 wOBA in 381 plate appearances. The fly balls haven't found the seats for him in Pittsburgh, though, as his Isolated Power (IsoP) has fallen from .218 to .113.

While Hinske isn't performing at the same level as he did in Tampa Bay, the power totals should improve; ZiPS projects him to hit .237/.333/.407 the rest of the way, with his average dropping and IsoP rising. He's not much of a defender (he has been worth -4.7 fielding runs in his career, according to FanGraphs), but he can play multiple positions, including third base. With Alex Rodriguez expected to require rest every few days, he could be a nice fill-in for New York at the hot corner. Plus, he adds insurance if Rodriguez faces any more injury issues. Essentially taking the roster spot from replacement-level infielder Cody Ransom, he could net the Yanks about a win in the standings; he was worth 2.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the Rays in '08 when accounting for batting, fielding, replacement and positional factors, with the total sitting at 0.3 in '09. He won't set the world on fire, but, at a relatively cheap price, Brian Cashman and the Yankees were wise to acquire him.

The bigger trade for Pittsburgh, rumored since the weekend, became official later in the afternoon. The Bucs sent reliever Sean Burnett and starting left fielder Nyjer Morgan to the Washington Nationals in exchange for reliever Joel Hanrahan and once-hyped outfield prospect Lastings Milledge.

Although many Pirate veterans were disappointed by another big move (weeks after saying goodbye to Nate McLouth), the thought processes used by Neil Huntington in this player swap were excellent. Milledge, who has seen his stock bottom out completely, will eventually determine the outcome of this deal, but the buy-low mindset used here is exactly the approach the Pirates should be taking to rebuild the ship. Not too long ago, the former first-rounder was considered one of the premier outfield prospects in the game; heck, in high school, Perfect Game USA compared him to Wille Mays*, and he probably would have gone earlier than 12th in the first round if not for off-field issues that forced him to transfer schools his senior year.

*Perfect Game, it's worth pointing out, also raved about his makeup, writing, "We should add, that in the 3 or 4 years we have gotten to know him and watched Lastings play... We have never seen anything other than great character, politeness and a willingness to do what it takes. We think he has championship caliber makeup and will be a Big League star performer!"

Now, which seems more far-fetched?: the Mays comparison or the make-up assessment?

It hasn't worked according to plan for Milledge, however, as he has produced a meager line of .261/.326/.400 and .89 OPS+ in 1,004 plate appearances in the majors. He got his New York career off to an auspicious start when he high-fived fans on the right field line after delivering a big home run shortly after making his debut, an act which rubbed many within the industry the wrong way. Since then, his personal baggage and issues--which boiled over this spring, when Nationals manager Manny Acta became so fed up with him that he sent him packing to Triple-A--have garnered more attention than his performance. As well, he graded out statistically as one of the worst defensive center fielders in the game in '08, compiling a -17.1 UZR in 1,185.2 innings at the position during his first full year playing there at the highest level.

That said, Milledge is still only 24 and tremendously talented; the scouts who loved him in high school weren't wrong to praise his ability. Due to his tremendous tools, many analysts applauded the Nationals for acquiring him in the 2007 offseason, seeing it as a buy-low even then; Jim Bowden, infatuated with troubled but talented outfielders loaded with tools, sent Ryan Church and Brian Schneider to the Mets, causing many people to rip Omar Minaya for giving up on Milledge too soon. With his struggles in his debut in the nation's capital (0.1 WAR total, a tick above replacement-level) and demotion to the minors in April, though, his value is even lower this time around.

Sure, Milledge may never pan out. Perhaps he's a legitimate cancer with personal issues that will prevent him from ever harnessing his talent and seeing it translate into results. For a team like the Pirates, though, he was more than a risk worth taking. He's under team control at an affordable rate until 2013, potentially giving the club a cost-efficient asset who could emerge as a solid regular if he can put his problems behind him.

Hanrahan has posted an alarming 7.71 ERA in 32.2 innings pitched, which may make the casual Pittsburgh fan a bit weary. He has missed bats to the tune of 9.64 K/9 rate, though, while producing a 3.56 FIP, an excellent predictor of ERA going forward. The 6-foot-4 right-hander has struggled with command (3.86 BB/9), but has fallen victim to some bad luck and was unfortunate to pitch in front of an embarrassingly terrible Nationals defensive unit; the Nats rank 29th in the majors with a putrid .681 Defensive Efficiency Rating. As a result of both factors beyond his control, his BABIP is a ridiculously high .451, 100-plus points greater than his .347 career mark. ZiPS has his ERA at 3.80 the rest of the way, so if he continues to miss bats, he'll be a capable addition to the bullpen for Pittsburgh.

Hanrahan, also under team control until 2013, throws hard. His average fastball velocity for his career is 93.8 MPH, coming at 95.2 in '08 and 93.9 in '09. He primarily relies on the heater (66.1% of his pitches) but also mixes in a mid-80s slider and mediocre change-up. With his velocity, the 27-year-old should be able to keep putting up healthy strikeout rates.

The Pirates did have to give up two decent (but expendable) pieces to pull off the move.

Burnett, a 26-year-old southpaw, has been an effective bullpen arm in Pittsburgh, posting a 3.06 ERA and 134 ERA+ in 32.1 innings pitched. His peripherals are less than stellar, though, as he pitches to his defense and doesn't miss a lot of bats (6.40 K/9). He has also had command problems at times (4.18 BB/9) and been assisted by an unsustainable .218 BABIP and 78.2 strand rate. Given the disparity in ERA, it's surprising that he actually has a higher FIP (4.50) than Hanrahan, who also has better stuff. The former first-rounder (2000) gets by with a four-pitch arsenal that includes a high-80s fastball, high-70s slider and low-80s change-piece.

Morgan is an easy player to root for. A former hockey player, he won over the local media with his personality and quickly became a fan favorite in the Steel City. Like Hinske, however, he was never going to be a factor on a contender in Pittsburgh and objectively isn't really anything special. He is what he is offensively: a speedy player who can hit for a nice batting average and draw some walks. He has almost no power (.090 career IsoP, .376 career slugging), though, and, despite his wheels, is an inefficient base stealer; he has been thrown out 18 times in 52 total chances. Entering Tuesday, Morgan is hitting .277/.351/.356 with a 93 OPS+ and .315 wOBA. Most encouraging, he has improved his walk rate (9.4%) while working better at-bats. Still, the Juan-Pierre Junior nickname is merited and does a nice job of distinguishing his upside as a hitter; ZiPS has him producing a .307 wOBA from this point on.

Most of Morgan's value, however, comes from his excellent outfield defense. Indeed, he has been one of the best left field defenders in baseball so far, producing a 12.4 UZR and 23.6 UZR/150; he leads the majors in UZR. Largely due to the runs that he has shaved off with his glove, he has been worth 1.9 WAR. Considering the nightmare mix of fielders--being generous there--the Nats have run out, from Adam Dunn to Josh Willingham, he'll be a major upgrade for Washington on this front, perhaps helping them stay out of the cellar in defensive efficiency. He doesn't become arbitration-eligible until 2011, so he'll provide some nice value for his new club if he continues to play stellar defense; plus, adding a plus defender to the mix will go along way to help the Nats' young pitching staff. For that reason, Mike Rizzo deserves some credit.

Overall, the Pirates had a productive day as Huntington continues to build for the future. Unlike his predecessor Dave Littlefield, whose sole priority was seemingly to keep his job (moral hazard 101), he has done what he thought was right for the long-term health of the franchise, regardless of the short-term backlash and consequences among the media and fan base. For a team that is going on its 17th losing season and wandered aimlessly for decades, that kind of vision is paramount.

Milledge is a nice gamble, and, even if he doesn't emerge as an impact player, the cost of two expendable and replaceable pieces in Burnett and Morgan won't do any serious damage. Hinske wasn't exactly a building block, either. Although he didn't fetch much in return, the idea of adding depth and saving money was solid.

For the Yankees, Hinske could provide a nice boost down the stretch, as well as insurance for A-Rod; call him GEICO. If he regains the power stroke, the Yanks could be looking at 1.0-WAR-level production in return for two minor leaguers whose departure will hardly make a dent to their farm system depth.

Washington upgrades its defense, an absolute necessity for that outfield, and rids itself of one of Bowden's toolsy outfielder reclamation projects. Still, Pittsburgh was the winner from a process perspective.

Tyler Hissey is the host of Minor League Notebook Weekly. To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Wednesday's Games of the Day

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 04:35:00 -0800

July begins with several teams either looking to extend winning streaks or stop losing streaks. San Francisco and St. Louis continue a series that impacts the early Wild Card race. Colorado looks to turn their luck around against the Dodgers. Plenty of pitchers are looking for win number eight, nine, or ten on July 1. Nyjer Morgan joins the Nationals. Adam Jones and Marco Scutaro begin July looking to end recent slumps. Those, and plenty of other good storylines, can be found in Wednesday's Games of the Day.

Washington at Florida: The Nyjer Morgan era begins in Washington. He and his new teammates will face the 7-1 Josh Johnson. Johnson is 4-0 agains the Nats in his career. Nick Johnson has a .556 batting average against Josh Johnson.

Tampa Bay at Toronto: The Rays keep rolling. They defeated Toronto 4-1 on Tuesday running their win streak to 8 games and handing Toronto their fourth straight loss. The series finale features James Shields and Ricky Romero, two very exciting pitchers. Shields is 0-2 with a 4.09 ERA in his last three starts against the Jays. Look for him to turn it around thanks to his team being hot right now. He'll get help from Marco Scutaro who is in the midst of a 1-for-16 slump with his last hit coming on June 26.

Boston at Baltimore: Josh Beckett goes for win number 10 against Brad Bergesen. Bergesen was 3-0 in June. Beckett is 4-1 lifetime at Camden Yards. I'm looking for Adam Jones to rebound from a poor June. Doing it against Josh Beckett might not happen. Teammate Luke Scott has a .545 batting average with 1 homer and 3 RBI against Beckett.

HE PLAYED HOCKEY!!!

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:46:41 +0000

OMGretzky!

Hanrahan and Milledge for Burnett and Morgan. I don't think I like it, probably just cause I didtrust the Nats management. Initial thoughts:

Burnett (27 in Sept) is blah, might be getting by with smoke and mirrors this season.

Morgan (29 in July) If he can play defense, we got Endy back!

Milledge (turned 24 in April) Has talent, needs to be brought along by a non-dysfunctional organization. Sorry Lastings.

Hanrahan (28 in October). Also has good stuff but seemingly can't get it together. May be good with a change of scenery, or with more time. Maybe.

So, it's a band-aid for this season at the expense of a couple of talents that were getting very close to being out of the Nats plans, Hanrahan due to age and Milledge due to Milledge. Most likely outcome is that the Nats win "small", but if Milledge or Hanrahan find themselves the Pirates can win big.

Fantasy Impact: Morgan for Milledge

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:35:06 +0000

There has been a ton of rumors swirling this morning about a possible Nyjer Morgan for Lastings Milledge deal within the next 24 hours. Will Carroll tweeted this morning that he had been told by a "good source" that a deal could be in motion. MLB Trade Rumors whispered the possible deal a few days ago and continues to monitor it as we speak. For fantasy owners the impact of this deal may be one to take action on immediately when, or if, it happens.

Nyjer Morgan - His fantasy stock has dropped a little in May, but he has picked up his AVG and SB production in June. No matter what the AVG it is reasonable to think Morgan can approach the 40 steal plateau this season. If traded, Morgan would likely bat leadoff or second in front of a good group of hitters in Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn. That's an obvious upgrade from Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche and Brandon Moss. Consider Nyjer Morgan's stock to go up if the deal goes down.

Lastings Milledge - A lot of sleeper love was squashed quickly when Milledge was sent down after striking out nearly 42% of his at bats with the Nationals to start the season. Once in the minors Milledge continued to struggle, then mid May broke a finger. He has just begun a rehab assignment. It is very likely that even if traded, Milledge will need 1-3 weeks of rehab time in the minors. That being said, the Pirates are going nowhere in the NL Central and realistically they won't contend for the wild card either. As soon as Milledge is deemed healthy I would expect him to be playing in the outfield for the big league club. If the trade does go down, NL-only leagues should react fast (if he happens to be available) and deep mixed and deep keeper leagues in desperate need of outfield help should consider an add given the roster space.

Now all we can do is wait, but at least we're ready to act if the deal goes through.

Update: MLB Trade Rumors says the deal is done. Other players involved Joel Hanrahan to PIT and Sean Burnett to WAS. Neither has much fantasy value, but keep an eye on Hanrahan. If he pitches well for the Pirates, he may work his way to some save chances should Matt Capps get injured.

Pirates continue to trim payroll

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 18:10:00 -0800

As Zach mentioned earlier today, the Pirates traded Eric Hinske to the Yankees. It wasn't really a big move, but not totally unexpected. Hinske came off a great 2008 with Tampa Bay, signed with Pittsburgh, and promptly spent most of the season on the bench.

The Pirates, in their infinite wisdom, were not done. General Manager Neal Huntingdon traded Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to Washington for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan. Pirates shortstop, and perennial trade target, Jack Wilson questioned the trade. It's safe to say the current Pirates see the writing on the wall with all the trading going on. If the Pirates are going for a certain direction with their trades, it may take time, and more losing, to find it.

I've seen mixed reactions on this trade. Some think the Pirates did well to get Milledge while others think they should have held onto Morgan. The consensus on Hanrahan is that he's a hardthrower who just throws and waits to see where the ball goes. I think they could have tried to get more in this trade, possibly an infielder. One thing's for sure, the Pirates bought low on the once-touted talent in Milledge who is 24 and 5 years younger than Morgan. They definitely sold high on Morgan. I've written about Milledge's poor attitude before. Andrew McCutchen had a solid relationship with Morgan. My one worry here is Milledge negatively influencing Cutch.

In return, the Nats get a high-energy outfielder in Morgan and a guy who can be a starter or long reliever in Burnett. The focus may be on the Pirates in this trade, but the Nationals made out well. They received a top-of-the-lineup hitter and decent outfielder in Morgan. Nyjer is the defensive centerfielder the Nats needed. As mentioned, Burnett can be inserted into Washington's rotation or as a reliever, so he provides versatility.

Nats trade Milledge, Hanrahan

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:38:17 -0500

The Washington Nationals have traded two chronic under-achievers, OF Lastings Milledge and RP Joel Hanrahan to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett. Morgan is a left-handed outfielder who does something the Nats don't do -- plays defense. Morgan turns 29 this week and he runs like the wind, covering a ton of space in the outfield and stealing bases [18 so far this season] when he gets on. He hits for pretty good average, but has almost no power.

Burnett is a 26-year-old left-handed relief pitcher who is having the best year of a relatively obscure career. In 38 relief appearances this season, Burnett has a 3.06 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.

On first blush, the good news is that the Nats traded absolutely no one of real value.

MLB Outsider - So Bad They're Legendary

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 13:00:00 -0500

Imagine your favorite team is on pace to lose 100 games this season. It's sickening, gut-wrenching, to think of a wasted year when your team is just that bad. But a 62-100 record, as bad as it is, equals out to a .383 winning percentage. Imagine what it would be like, then, if your team couldn't even win 30% of their games. A .296 winning percentage -- the highest sub-.300 figure possible -- equals out to a 48-114 record. Amazingly enough, that's the record the Washington Nationals are steaming toward this year.

When I saw just how atrocious a year they were having, I decided to look deeper. Just how often has a sub-.300 winning percentage happened in the history of baseball?

The answer is that it's relatively uncommon, at least in the modern era. Among still-active teams in the 134-year history of baseball, it's happened 25 times. The last time it occurred was in 2003 when the Detroit Tigers went 43-119. They had three pitchers lose 17 or more games, including a 20-year-old Jeremy Bonderman (6-19) and Mike Maroth, who went 9-21 that year. No wonder Dmitri Young would eventually be driven to drink...

Before the '03 Tigers, we have to go all the way back to 1962 when a newly Christianed Mets franchise would lose 120 games. They would have two 20-game-losers, including future Giants skipper Roger Craig (10-24) and Al Jackson (8-20) along with a near-miss in Jay Hook (8-19). But probably worst of all was 23-year-old Bob Miller who went 1-12 - that's a winning percentage of .077 for those of you scoring at home. Ironically, of the bunch Miller would have the longest and most successful career, as he'd pitch into 1974 and retire with a 3.37 career ERA. His last season would be with the Mets, where he'd go a much better 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA.

Previous to 1962, or at least up until 1952, atrocious teams were a little more common (likely due to the fact that many bad teams weren't just bad for one year ... they'd play like crap for two or three seasons in a row). In the 1940's and 1950's there would be 3 teams to play legendarily bad baseball; there would be 4 in the 1930's, 1 in the 20's, 5 in the 1910's, 3 in the 1900's, and 4 pre 1900's. Not surprisingly, though, the early baseball teams really set the standard of suck, as the still-active teams with the worst records ever were the 1883 Philadelphia Quakers (later called the Phillies) and the 1890 Pittsburgh Allegheynys (later known as the Pirates).

The Quakers would go 17-81 in 1883, their first year in the league. They'd carry only 2 regular starters, John Coleman and Art Hagan. Coleman, who would also play infield and outfield while a Major Leaguer, went 12-48 that year. Seriously -- 48 losses, for one pitcher, in one season. Maybe his nickname was "Hangin'," because that's what he probably wanted to do to himself that season. The rest of his career, Hangin' was a 9-24 pitcher, a remarkable improvement but still attrocious. Hagan, meanwhile, was the first Bob Miller. He went 1-14 with the Quakers, but unlike Miller he wouldn't go on to have any kind of career. He'd be washed up as a 21-year-old, failing to cut it even with Buffalo.

The good news is that within three seasons the Quakers would be a winning ballclub. And at least they have the excuse of being a new club with a terrible pitcher. The Alleghenys, meanwhile, were in existence as a Major League team for four seasons when they had their 23-113 season. And their year was so terrible that it probably had something to do with the team's name-change as the year after their Worst Season Ever they'd be called the Pirates.

Unlike the Quakers, the Alleghenys tried a bunch of starters in 1890. From Kirtley Baker and his 3-19 record to Dave Anderson, who went 2-11, to Bill Phillips and Crazy Schmit, both of whom went 1-9, Pittsburgh scraped the bottom of the barrel and kept on digging. All told they'd use 20 starting pitchers over the span of the season in an era where it was more common to have a 3-man rotation and 3 relievers in total.

So, I guess the Nationals could have it worse. They might be on pace to win only 48-or-so games, making them one of only two teams in the history of the free agency era to play that badly, but at least they're not playing so badly that they actually turn in desperation to a pitcher nicknamed "Crazy."

Still, while they are already only 27th in the majors in terms of salary, we have to assume that they will be quick to sell their most expensive players. That list of players includes guys like Christian Guzman, a .325 hitting shortstop playing well above his career norms, Adam Dunn, their newly-signed free agent who's hit 19 booming homeruns despite batting only .257 and striking out 84 times in 75 games, Austin Kearns, an 8 million dollar bust, Nick Johnson, a first baseman without power, Dmitri Young who has been out all year with a back injury, and so-on.

However it has to be extremely depressing to be a Nationals fan. Maybe Washington is just cursed for baseball. The Twins-as-Senators had 5 100-loss seasons and several near-misses. The Nationals of 1884-1889 fame never won more than 48 games in a season, the 1892-1899 Nationals never did better than a .462 winning percentage, and the modern-era bunch are trying their hardest to be one of the worst teams of our generation.

But hey, at least the Nationals are entering the realm of legendary in their amount of suck. I suppose it's better than being mediocre and just winning 70 to 80 games every year while never reaching the playoffs. Nobody wants to remember following the mediocre teams, but the legendarily bad ones? You'll tell your grandkids one day, and the tales of woe won't even have to be all that tall.

It was the bullpen...or was it?

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 06:53:46 +0000

Well, yeah it was BUT it was also the offense. The bullpen has been for the most part, consistently poor. There have been a few fortnights (that's right FORTNIGHTS) where the bullpen has been decent but that's about it. Of course - despite what the Germans would have you believe, it takes more than a bad bullpen to ruin a season. For June the partner in crime has been the offense. Don't believe me?

Runs Scored : 82 in 24 games LAST in the majors. (not sure if the stats have been updated to count last night or not and I'm too tired to look it up - I don't think they have been in fact - but unless the Padres scored -3 runs this holds up and no team has scored -3 runs since the 2007 Nationals.)

So what's causing this? What else? A complete lack of power...

OBP : .326, 6th in the NL not terrible...

SLG : .361, 14th in the NL awful...

And it's not just any slugging but specifically the long ball...

HR: 13, ties for last in the NL (both the Mets and Nats hit one last night so it's still tied)

Dunn 3 HRs, Nick 1, Dukes 2, Zimm 2, That's 8 totals or one less than Pujols will probably hit tomorrow.

The problems are scattered. Guzman and the occasional Alberto Gonzalez sighting gives the Nats some hits, but they aren't power guys. Hernandez is Hernandez. Dunn is just not hitting (.228 average - remember when he said he was hoping for .300?) and neither is Nick (.232). Both of them look like Hugh Duffy compared to Elijah Dukes (.182) And he looks like Ken Griffey Jr in Ken Griffey Jr Presents Major League Baseball compared to the 100 at bats wasted on Corey Patterson (.133 / .133 /.133), Wil Nieves (.133 / .200 / .133), Belliard (.111 / .105 / .111) and Kearns (.108 / .250 / .108)

The offense is being "carried" by a below average Zimm, and the Joshes. Good luck with all that.

The Nats can't even catch a break in the pitcher slot 15th in the NL for the season from those guys at the plate. (.091 /.153 / .100)

gah Gah GAH I can't look at this anymore. Time for sleep and dreams of things more likely to make solid contact, like dizzy blindfolded children trying to break a pinata with a balloon animal.