Tampa Bay Rays

Friday's Games of the Day

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 04:40:00 -0800

The Fourth of July Weekend kicks off with a full schedule of games. The Yankees look to start a new winning streak against the Blue Jays. The Brewers and Cubs continue their seesaw NL Central battle. The Brewers need wins to stay ahead in the division because the Cardinals and Reds are battling for positioning in the division. The Mets and Phillies begin a series that will determine which team is in first in the NL East on Monday. These games, and many more, can be found in Friday's Games of the Day.

Toronto at New York Yankees: The Mariners broke the Yankees seven-game winning streak but are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They look to have A.J. Burnett and company start a new win streak against the Jays and Brian Tallet. Four of Hideki Matsui's 6 hits off Tallet have gone for extra bases, with one being a long ball.

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs: The Cubs took the first game of this series on Thursday. The Brewers and Jeff Suppan look to even the season series back up at 4-4 against Carlos Zambrano. Derek Lee has 21 hits off Suppan with 11 extra base hits (4 home runs). J.J. Hardy is only 2-for-19 against Zambrano. Mike Cameron is worse, 1-for-13 against Zambrano.

New York Mets at Philadelphia: The Phillies have lost 3 straight and are 3-7 in their last 10 games. They're now tied with the Marlins for first place in the NL East. The Mets find themselves only 1 game behind. This series will determine who's in first place in the division come Monday. The Phillies are relying on Rodrigo Lopez to get the win. Wonderful.

Sonnanstine Pitches Better In Triple-A, Few Surprised

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0500

Making his first start for the Durham Bulls a week later after making one in Tropicana Field, Andy Sonnanstine went six innings throwing 94 pitches, 64 for strikes. Sonnanstine was sent down to AAA last Saturday in order to make room for Scott Kazmir after a down three months this season. We are not blessed with pitch f/x or very detailed game logs, so I will have to go with what I have. Here is his line from the night and some other details.

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Sonnanstine (W, 1-0)	6.0	7	2	2	1	3	0	3.00

An even 7 groundouts to 7 flyouts, three of the seven hits Sonny gave up were doubles and he gave up a rare stolen base, but we could blame Jaso's arm. Two of the three strikeouts were swinging Ks.

An update on this if we can find a better recap of his night. Don't expect him to make much changes early on, and even if he does they might even be noticeable statistically.

Jeter Twice As Good As JB? I Think Not...

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:26:09 -0500

All-Star voting ends tonight at 11:59pm ET. That means that Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett will be on the bench in St. Louis.

I am one of many that realize that fan voting is destroying the All-Star Game. The main reason for me writing this article is because of what I mentioned above. Jason Bartlett, an All Star SS will not be the guy taking the field between 2nd and 3rd base. Who will? A guy named Derek Jeter. You may not have heard of him I know, so take a time out and do a quick google search...

To further my frustration, lets examine the manner in which Mr. Jeter has beaten JB out. JETER HAS TWICE AS MANY VOTES! TWICE! Feel free to read that as many times needed for it to sink in. In fact he has more than twice the votes.

Both guys have seen some time on the bench this year with injury and Jeter does have 78 more AB's on the year, but come on! Bartlett is having a career year and has only 2 fewer home runs than Jeter, and we don't play in the wind tunnel everyday. The AVG? 55 points in favor of JB. He also has the edge in doubles, triples and RBI's. Not too mention OBP, SLG and OPS.

Now, I hate the Yanks, thats in my blood. But I have a lot of respect for the Yankee Captain. He's a hard working player and can keep his hands inside the baseball better than anyone in the biz. But does his name make him twice as good as Jason this year? (And remember we're not picking the All-Century team here, its about this year only) The answer is no. Plainly and bluntly no. But this is the epitome of the All Star Game. In the infield, the Yanks and Bo Sox both have their players in the top 5 of every position. In fact they're all in the top 3 except for the injured Sox SS Lowrie!

Red Sox Nation and the Yankee Universe dominate the voting but don't be stupid, they don't have the best players at every single position. Jason Bartlett is an All Star starter and does not deserve to be doubled up on. Being an All Star just doesn't mean what it used to...

Fastball, Fastball, Fastball; Rays Pitchers Mantra

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:05:00 -0500

An article by Raysbaseball.com beat writer Bill Chastain discusses the mantra of Rays assistant to the pitching coach Brian Anderson of "the fastball is King." He makes some sense out of an old baseball adage

"Everything comes off the fastball," said Brian Anderson, former Major Leaguer and currently an assistant pitching coach for the Rays. "Everything that you do is based off the fastball. And so if it's a pitch that you don't establish and you're out there, breaking ball after breaking ball, changeup after changeup, first of all, it's tough to keep feel.
"It also becomes a lot easier for the hitter to read your breaking stuff. They see the spin if they see too many of them. That's when you get into the danger zone during an at-bat if you've thrown him three or four curveballs. You start to get a little nervous. A guy sees three or four curveballs in an at-bat, he's going to square one up.

Yes, no matter how hard a fastball is thrown, you can still get guys out in the highest level of baseball in existence. Although throwing very slow (70 mph fastball) gives a hitter more than half a second of time, which is enough to recognize the exact location of the pitch, then crush it if goes into their sweet zone. But I won't go into that now and rather look at how often Rays pitchers go to the fastball.

Fantasy Links of the Day

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:50:00 -0800

With the holiday weekend coming up, tonight's Links are aimed at getting you ready for the weekend. There's two good strategy articles that discuss trading. I thought they might conflict at first, but they actually go hand-in-hand with one following the other.

Hitter Links:

Charlie Saponara wants you to tell Torii Hunter and Ben Zobrist goodbye. He makes a good point.

Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove adds Zobrist's teammate Jason Bartlett and Price Fielder to the list.

Hit Parade takes a look at the mid-season fantasy All-Stars. After taking a cursory glance at the list, I'm not really surprised by any name on there.

Jimmy Rollins and Magglio Ordonez lead the list of the top 10 flops of the first half.

Kyle Stack deconstructs Rafael Furcal.

Another Random Thought, Percival Hanging Around

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:25:00 -0500

After seeing the Rays make a trade adding pitcher John Meloan to the final 40-man roster spot today, I thought I'd check the official Tampa Bay Rays 40-man roster. Then looking at the injured pitchers (3) I noticed that Troy Percival is still on the 15-day DL. It has been about 40 days since he was placed on the DL with a right shoulder injury. Although there were no time tables for his injury then and now the thought is that he is contemplating retirement (please).

That injury should be more than a 60 day time period with it already gone for about 40+ days plus the fact he is likely not even working out or preparing for rehab. So does it mean the Rays are still hanging on to him? I would say yes because they were reluctant to put a 39 year old pitcher with a shoulder injury on the 60-day DL soon after, which would have opened up another spot on the 40-man roster. But it seems to be easier for them just to keep him on the 15-day DL. The only thing is that are they willing to bring him back to the closer's job if he does get healthy again? I fear that they are actually thinking about it though they should be smarter than that.

Just something to consider come the next slew of rosters moves and the upcoming trading deadline.

Sell Targets: tell Torii goodbye

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:00:00 +0000

Back this week with Mark from Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove. Last week we looked at some players to target in trades. This week we look at some players worth selling high on.

Torii Hunter - A lot can come with a name brand. Hunter's charisma and highlight reel catches make him a household name. That makes no difference when it comes to fantasy baseball. What it does do is help to boost his perceived value. Hunter's .306, 17 HR, 12 SB line is very front-loaded. 8 of his homeruns came in April when his flyball rate was over 50%. That rate has fallen back down to his career standards and so too has the AB/HR rate. 9 of his 12 steals came in May and his AVG has gone from .325 in April to .304 in May and .289 in June. His strikeouts also continue to rise per month. It's safe to say that the best part of Hunter's season is behind him. In the second half we'll likely be seeing a good player, but one that will be less valuable for your fantasy team. Recently traded for: David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Dan Haren, Ichiro Suzuki, Evan Longoria.

Ben Zobrist - Yeah, he looked pretty legit coming out of the gates when he moved into a full time role, but let's face it, he's not Chase Utley good. His almost 24% HR/FB rate is sure to regress a little and he strikes out over 22% of his at bats. June was a significantly cooler month for Zobrist. I do think he's capable of 10-12 homers in the second half, but the AVG may not get much over .280 or so. The biggest reason to sell on Zobrist is the proven talent you can get in return. Recently traded for: Lance Berkman, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Jose Reyes, Bobby Abreu, Chad Billingsley.

CC Sabathia - The ERA and WHIP look good, but look deeper and you might not like what you see. While everyone is worried about Johan Santana's recent issues, it's Sabathia's strikeouts that have been way down all season long. His 6.44 K/9 is only a little above league average and he is seeing more fly balls off the bat of opposing hitters than he has in his career. Think this will get better in the second half? It could, but there is plenty of risk involved as well. Sabathia is on course to approach 230 innings this season, which would actually be down from a consecutive three year rise in innings pitched. Take into account the way (amount of innings) he pitched late last season and into October. There would seem to be a chance he wears down in August and September of this season. Even if he doesn't wear down, the fact is that we are looking at a pitcher who's value is still largely perceived off of last season's incredible performance. Sabathia is the perfect guy to try and deal for a package of players. In many cases Sabathia would be viewed as the best player in the deal, but he may not be all that different than a second tier starter right now. Recently traded for: Scott Kazmir + Ichiro, Manny Ramirez + Carlos Zambrano, Heath Bell + Carlos Lee, Matt Capps + Clayton Kershaw + Hunter Pence and 1 for 1 deals for Miguel Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez.

3 Sell Targets from Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove:

Jason Bartlett. His BABIP is .413. His K rate has increased slightly from last year. He only has 7 home runs. More than two-thirds of his plate appearances have come from the 7-9 spots in the batting order. Continue reading...

Rays Acquire Reliever John Meloan From Indians For Winston Abreu

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:40:00 -0500

The Rays have finally made a move to complete the DF'A of Winston Abreu by trading him to the Cleveland Indians for reliever John Meloan. Meloan will be placed on the 40-man roster, in the last open spot. Abreu was designated for assignment to make room for Chad Bradford last Saturday. Abreu was originally signed as relief depth for spring training, he had tore up hitters in Durham and came up when Jason Isringhausen was placed on the DL and eventually getting Tommy John surgery.

As for Meloan, here is a bit from Marc Lancaster:

Meloan was acquired by the Indians on July 26, 2008 from the Dodgers along with catcher Carlos Santana in exchange for infielder Casey Blake. In 2007 he was named a Southern League All-Star and Double-A Reliever of the Year by MinorLeagueBaseball.com. He was selected by the Dodgers in the fifth round of the 2005 June Draft out of the University of Arizona.

A former prospect now, Meloan turns 25 on July 11 and will be placed in AAA Durham. This move gives the Rays another reliever on the 40-man with options joining Dale Thayer.

A big pitcher at 6'3'' 230 pounds, John Meloan has pitched well in the minors before joining the Dodgers during the 2007 season. A career K/9 of 10.8 in the minors, Meloan has pitched in 9.1 innings with both the Dodgers and the Indians getting a FIP of 5.90 allowing nine walks and getting nine strikeouts. This season with the AAA affiliate of the Indians, Meloan has pitched 44 innings with 4.52 FIP and a not as promising 7.57 K/9.

In the little time he has pitched in the Majors, Meloan has had all of his appearances tracked in pitch f/x. He features a low-90s fastball that he can cut around 90 mph and has a big breaking low 80s curveball. His arm angle looks to be a three quarters to side arm, possibly whipping his arm. Although Abreu has pitched much better than Meloan at AAA this season, Meloan gives the Rays another reliever with options to call up and/or send down. His teammate Thayer is really his competitor for a call-up in case of an injury to the bullpen.

At least the Rays got someone decent after letting Abreu go.

[Update] Here is a scouting report from the Indians Prospect Insider.

Run Support, A Pitcher's Worst Enemy Or Best Friend

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:30:00 -0500

No matter how little or no runs a pitcher gives up, he will never ever get the win if his team doesn't score, while he is on the mound. He would get the loss if he gives up one run in 9 innings and his offense gets shutout. And say that lone run came from a couple bloop base hits that were hit off the handle of the bat, lucky for the hitter but very unlucky for the hitter. That is why win loss records for pitchers are so overrated and in a sense, useless. There is so many other factors that go into that, and yet run support as a key one yet an unpredictable one. Although I don't get statsy on you, lets just look at the basic run support numbers and see which of the Rays starters are condemned to little run support.

The Rays and Jays series was a very tight series, even though the run differential doesn't indicate it. The Rays won 4-1 in the first two games, with the Blue Jays getting the 5-0 win yesterday. This wasn't the usual Rays offense in Toronto, they only managed eight runs with six coming on home runs. Jeff Niemann and Matt Garza went at least seven innings each, only allowing a hit and getting at least three runs of offense when they were in the game pitching. James Shields had no run support though he only gave up three runs in seven innings (two in the eighth but the game was practically over by then). So what does this all mean? Nothing really, except that the two best pitchers on the staff, Matt Garza and James Shields, get the least run support as for Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine who can give a mediocre performance, yet still get the win.

We will use Baseball Reference to see their run support and win-loss record.

Baseball Writer Opening At MLB Notebook

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:45:00 -0500

With an off day here, I want to pass this note along from the other blog I write for MLB Notebook. A general baseball site that covers a vast expanse of topics ranging from notes and links, to fantasy and player analysis. These are the details for being a part time writer:

2-3 Posts a week - Could be more if you have the drive to do it, but we only expect 2 each week.
Love of baseball - If you don't love the game, we don't love you.
Writing Experience - We would prefer to add writers who have a proven body of work.
Volunteer - Technically this is a volunteer gig, because we have no real money to pay anyone. However, this could change depending on site revenue. But, even though you aren't being paid, the exposure you get here is beneficial.

Email Zach at sportsnotebook@gmail.com if interested.

Home Run Trot's June All-Star Team: Position Players

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:20:00 -0800

The monthly All-Star team is another feature I'm bringing over from my old blog. For those unfamiliar with my previous work, here are the April and May posts. I'm bringing the All-Star team over to MLB Notebook with a twist. It's going to be divided into two posts. One for the position players and a second for the pitching staff. Now that I'm working with some other great writers, these monthly posts can properly be used to start a discussion.

*All stats are compiled as of 7 PM EST on July 1.

Catcher: Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants
Making this selection was not tough, unlike April and May. Molina is making his second appearance on this team. He leads all catchers with 10 home runs and 45 RBI. He also has 14 doubles and a triple. His numbers stayed pretty even with his April and May numbers. He's also sporting a .996 fielding percentage with only 2 errors.

First Base: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Pujols makes his third straight appearance on this team. Pujols leads MLB in home runs (30) and RBI (77). He's also scored 61 runs and has a .332 batting average. This pick was a no-brainer.

Second Base: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Second base has proven to be perhaps the toughest pick to make. Utley makes the team for a second time because he picked up the pace in June with 6 home runs, 19 RBI and a .320 average. He's tied for second among second basemen with 51 RBI. He leads all second basemen with a .999 OPS.

Third Base: Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants
Sandoval takes the spot from Evan Longoria on the strength of his June. In 94 June at-bats, Sandoval had 8 home runs, 20 RBI, 9 doubles, and a .394 batting average.

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
Ramirez makes the team for the first time. He's batting .345 with 100 hits in 290 at-bats. He also has 13 home runs, 58 RBI, 26 doubles, and 12 steals. His middling .975 fielding percentage and 7 errors can be overlooked this time.

Listen Up Tampa Spartan Fans!

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:00:00 -0500

Not much minor league updates with our minor league writer is off on vacation. So here is just something I saw while looking around at box scores. The Princeton Rays, the Rays rookie minor league ball club, has a good bunch of 2009 draft picks. On of which is a University of Tampa alum, former Spartan pitcher Alexander Koronis who was drafted in the 11 round by the Rays. A closer in college, Koronis made his first professional appearance today throwing one and a third innings notching three Ks and a groundout to earn his first save of his pro career. Not a top prospect yet, still a good sign though mainly a hoo-rah from any UT baseball fans. And I know we have some around here in Tampa Bay, so a little shout out to you.

Left in the Dust, Rays Take Two Out of Three from Jays

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:38:03 -0500

The Toronto Blue Jays ended the Tampa Bay Rays seven game winning streak but not before dropping two out of three games to a Rays team that has surpassed them in AL Eastern division.

The Rays were the hottest team in the majors in the month of June and a lot of it is due to their starting pitching coming around. In the first two games of the series against the Blue Jays, Tampa Bay received sterling performances from Jeff Niemann and Matt Garza, while getting timely hitting from while the long ball powered the offense.

Tampa Bay saw home runs from BJ Upton, Pat Burrell, Willy Aybar, and two from Carl Crawford in a pair of 4-1 decisions, beating Blue Jays Ace Roy Halladay in game one and young right hander Scott Richmond in the second match up. Neimann became the team leader in victories with his seventh of the season, while Matt Garza got himself back over the .500 mark (6-5).

Problems continued for James Shields, though. In the third game of the series, Shields was touched for three home runs while young lefty Ricky Romero continued Tampa Bay's struggles against left handed pitching, befuddling the Rays hitters, scattering four hits and no runs while striking out seven. Rod Barajas, Alan Lind, and Scott Rolen would make a close 2-0 ball game heading into the seventh into a 5-0 whitewash.

Despite the setback, the Rays put distance between themselves and the Blue Jays while moving past their next opponent, the Texas Rangers, into second place in the American League Wildcard race. They're currently two games behind the New York Yankees (but tied in the win column) but are still five back of the AL East leading Boston Red Sox.

Hotzilla Walks The Diamond!

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 17:30:00 -0500

We are in the "Hotzilla" phase of Ben Zobrist who has reached base safely in all seven of eight PAs in the Toronto series, with the only out on a sacrifice fly. And since June 24, Hotzilla has walked 10 times in his last 29 plate appearances. His line for that seven game stretch goes for .353/.586/.588 with only three runs and four RBIs to show for it. He does have only one home run during that time but he isn't getting pitched much around the plate recently but has to get hits by hitting pitcher's pitches and taking a good chunk of walks.

With pitch f/x, we can see how he was pitched in his past two games in Toronto where he has had eight productive ABs. As for hitters in pitch f/x, we would almost always use pitch location with the first one here of what types of pitches he seen. (Note: Zobrist is a switch hitter so these charts are taken from all his ABs which came from him hitting on both sides)

A great deal of off speed pitches, mainly away from the strike zone. Pitchers tried to avoid the fastball over the plate as Zobrist hit almost half of them. This is a good visualization of how Zobrist has been pitched to recently, with him seeing many off speed pitches down and on the corners.

Another Graph!

Romero Runs Over Rays And Burrell's Folly

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:00:00 -0500

July 1, 2009 Box

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Tampa Bay	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	1
Toronto	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	X	5	8	1

Just two notes today as they are the most important.

I have heard that Ricky Romero had a nice changeup, one that has screwball like action and registers as a slider in MLB.com's gameday. The Rays had baserunners but they always got out quickly with two pickoffs by Romero and two double plays induce, both came in with at least one runner in scoring position late in the game. What made Romero very effective by not giving too many fastballs near the zone for the Rays hitters and pound that screw-changeup low in the strike zone. He still had more flyouts than groundouts, seven strikeouts help especially if they come from the 1-3 hitters.

Burrell's Folly

With runners on second and third and one out, Romero made an obvious intentional unintentional walk to hot hitting Ben Zobrist in favor of loading the bases with Pat Burrell up to the plate. The chance to get a double play from a .230 hitter and get out of a spot.

A first pitch changeup was followed by a high fastball around thigh high. Instead of trying to uppercut it and avoid the double play, Burrell rolls over weakly to the left of second base and get into that deadly 6-4-3 DP. Not sure if Burrell was over thinking in his at-bat but mostly any ball in the outfield would have been a sac fly with Crawford at third base. Instead Burrell jumped the gun on the fastball and maybe was looking to hit a changeup.

It was easy to say Burrell sucked because of the results but The Rays Party is smarter than that and we look into the process of the at-bat. And how do I know Burrell wanted to uppercut his swing but didn't? In his following at-bat in the ninth, Burrell tried to upper cut the first pitch he saw, a very low moving fastball in.

A mental folly from Burrell that is sucking production from the Rays. Need a quick fix.