MVN - Most Valuable Network

Deal, or No Deal?

If you’ve been reading this site ever since its inception in March of 2005, you should know this much by now: I love the offseason and trade rumors.

So you can only imagine my excitement right now on the eve of what could be the most exciting, explosive, and vibrant offseason in NBA history. An offseason that could see a number of superstars, All-Stars, or All-Star caliber player switch teams via trades, free agency, or sign-and-trades. And we haven’t even mentioned a draft class that is right up there with the ‘96 and ‘03 drafts as one of the three best classes over the last dozen years.

As a Cavaliers fan, you might be bummed. Cleveland has no draft picks (thank you, Jim Paxson, you antichrist) and is way over the salary cap. Tradeable assets are limited and bad contracts are the norm (thank you, Danny Ferry). But unlike Christmas, there are enough treats to go around for everyone regardless of whether you’re naughty or nice. And according to our main man from the Akron Beacon Journal, Brian Windhorst, the Cavs may have been nicer than you think, and they do, indeed, have some tradeable assets:

“Do you know the Cavs could trade Damon Jones, Ira Newble and David Wesley for up to an $11.1 million player while the other team would only be responsible for around $4.6 million in actual dollars next season. Dude, read the story. Those guys are assets, trust me. UPDATE: I’ve gotten some e-mails because some people aren’t understanding this (which is why you should read the story). The Cavs can and will kick in as much as $3 million in any deal. Wesley, Jones and Newble combined cap numbers are about about $9.4 million next season (add the 20 percent rule in trade and you get a little over $11 million in return value potential). Reduce the Wesley buyout plus the payment and hard cash due to cover the Cavs players is close to $4.6-$4.8 million depending on some things. Now, here’s where I should point out that the Phoenix Suns love Drew Gooden, they spent all last summer trying to get him. Plus they really want to kill payroll and have been floating Shawn Marion’s name. That’s not a rumor, OK, that’s just me thinking out loud. By the way, new Suns GM Steve Kerr and Danny Ferry are tight.”

Before we go any further, let’s go over some ground rules first:

#1) Any deal involving LeBron James switching uniforms (unless that uniform is an Eastern Conference All-Star jersey or a Team USA uni) should result in the root of the trade rumor being run over by an army tank.

#2) Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic are restricted free agents, and their status in a sign-and-trade would turn them into Base Year Contract (BYC) players. To be honest, not even I am sure how BYC provisions work, and it is way too intricate to pinpoint right now. But I know this much: sign-and-trades involving those two won’t work as if it was just another trade. For example, re-signing Varejao to a contract that pays him $8 million doesn’t mean that the Cavs can trade him for a player (or a trade package) coming within 25 percent of $8 million. His “trade salary” may be significanly lower than $8 million. Same goes with Pavlovic. It gets incredibly dicey, trust me.

#3) Varejao and Pavlovic cannot be involved in any trades on or before draft day. That’s because, as free agents, they can’t even negotiate new deals until July 1st. The draft is June 28th. So you see why this is obvious.

#4) The Cavaliers have a $2.1 million trade exception from Boston that was received in the Fluke Jackson trade last October. They have one full year to use that trade exception.

$5) The Newble/Wesley/Jones triumverate will be referred to as “the Holy Trinity” from here on out.

#6) Since the Cavs don’t have a first-round pick this year, they can’t trade both the 2008 and 2009 draft picks in a monster deal to land some megastar player (uh, Kevin Garnett?). That’s because the NBA has a rule, inspired by former Cavs owner Ted Stepien, that forbids a team from surrendering a first-round draft pick in three consecutive seasons. And, oh yeah, speaking of which…

#7) Kevin Garnett will not be a Cleveland Cavalier. For the love of everything good and holy, Wine & Gold Nation, please stop the pipe dreams. Please. It will make things better for everybody involved if you just stopped right now.

That being said, let’s look at a handful of players who will be on the trading block this summer, why they would be a good fit for the Cavs, and how the Cavs can get them.

Mike Bibby

Obviously priority #1, if you read the preceeding entry here. Bibby interested Ferry at the trading deadline, and some league sources indicate that the interest is still there. And why not? Bibby is exactly the type of point guard needed by a team that needs one in the worst way. Bibby can shoot. He can score. He can distribute. He can run an offense. He can get the ball to the right people. He can open things up for LeBron James.

If the Cavs can somehow find a way to land Bibby without losing any one of their other starters, Ferry is right up there among the pantheons of great GMs. I’m talking R.C. Buford, Geoff Petrie, Bryan Colangelo territory. A lineup of James and Drew Gooden at forward, Zydrunas Ilgauskas at center, and Bibby and Larry Hughes in the backcourt is a serious threat to win 60+ games.

Some sources, such as Windhorst, said that the Kings were after the Cavs’ expiring contracts, and those particular expiring contracts are no longer on the books, effectively killing this deal. That makes me think that Sacto was hot after Anderson Varejao and/or Sasha Pavlovic. Cleveland’s new batch of expiring contracts does not carry as much on-court talent as those two. Drew Gooden’s inclusion in a deal to the Kings was discussed at length in the preceeding entry here. The Holy Trinity plus the trade exception can come close to making this deal work, but it is certainly more attractive to a team looking to cut costs and payroll as much as possible.

Something tells me the Suns are more interested in doing that than the Kings…

Shawn Marion

The Matrix touched the sky to the tune of 17.5 points and 9.8 boards per game this season while being one of the league’s most versatile players and best defenders. Marion plays power forward in Phoenix’s run-and-gun offense, and his ability to hit the three (despite having one of the ugliest shots seen since the two-handed set shot) makes him one of the league’s most unique players.

There are various reasons why the Suns are looking to cut ties with Marion this offseason. First, as it stands right now, the Suns will be well into the luxury tax threshold next season, something that disgusts Robert Sarver, their miserly owner. It is Marion, not All-NBA first-teamer Amare Stoudemire or two-time MVP Steve Nash, that will be the highest-paid Sun next season. Matrix will collect $16.4 million next season and has a player option for $17.2 million in 2008-09. Seeing that Marion turns 30 next May and won’t see a new contract that pays him nearly as much in the open market, it’s safe to assume that he’ll pick up that option and remain Phoenix’s highest-paid player for a second consecutive season.

On top of all that, word out of Arizona is that there is an ego clash between Marion and Stoudemire. When Stoudemire missed all of 2005-06 (no, those two or three games he played in don’t count) after undergoing microfracture knee surgery, Matrix rose to the occassion and put up 21.8 points and 11.8 rebounds. Those numbers dipped in ‘06-07 after STAT returned and made the All-NBA team. Interesting, eh?

Again, the Holy Trinity would be involved here, but Drew Gooden would join the mix. The Suns tried hard to acquire Gooden in a sign-and-trade last summer when The Goods was a restricted free agent. Gooden would be a good fit at power forward next to Stoudemire, and his salary of $6.4 million for next year on a contract that runs through just 2009 makes it all the more attractive to the Suns.

Personally, I’m kind of skeptical of having a power forward who is just 6′7″ and 228 pounds (note: LeBron, a small forward, is 6′8″ and 250). But as Marion would tell you, “What can I say? I’m 20/10.” It’s hard to argue with results, and Marion would be the second superstar on a team dying to add one.

You’d also like to think that if Ferry had a genuine interest in Marion, then new Phoenix GM Steve Kerr would give him first dibs on a trade proposal. Kerr and Ferry played together back to their days on the Cavs in the early ’90s and won a championship together in San Antonio. They’re still on very good terms, from what I’ve heard and read, and the fact that a trade between the two teams would be an interconference swap only adds incentive.

Jason Terry

The JET took the runway on his way to signing a huge six-year, $50 million deal last summer with Dallas, but a younger, cheaper point guard is waiting in the wings in Big D in the form of Devin Harris. At the age of 29 (he turns 30 in September), Terry’s production has still shown no signs of slowing down as he averaged 17 points per game the last two seasons, but Dallas can certainly move him to upgrade a team that has choked in the postseason the last two years. If Harris goes from being the future to being the present, the Mavs could look to add another veteran shooting guard next to him since Jerry Stackhouse will be a free agent.

There were murmers about a Gooden-for-Terry deal two summers ago on hoopshype.com, and some sources indicated that Dallas and Cleveland did have some level of discussions. Of course, trading away a 25-year old power foward who averaged 11.1 points and 8.5 rebounds for a 30-year old guard may see like stupidity, and the Mavs don’t need Gooden when they have Dirk Nowitzki at the four. In this case, the Holy Trinity for Jet straight up works, but the Mavs may be more interested in adding talent than cutting costs. Maybe throw in Varejao or Pavlovic in a sign-and-trade, but as I mentioned before, that complicates things.

Zach Randolph

The Cavs should hope that the Trail Blazers go with Greg Oden in Thursday’s draft, because it would all but cement Randolph’s status on the trading block. With Oden at center, the Blazers would have to decide between either Randolph and LaMarcus Aldridge, an All-NBA rookie team member, at the four. Aldridge’s natural position is power forward, but he has been played at center quite a bit by Portland coach Nate McMillan. That’s why if the Blazers opt for Kevin Durant, they can easily keep all their main pieces by sliding Durant into the small forward spot and keeping Aldridge at center.

Which means Zebo is probably off the market.

If he isn’t, the Cavs would be retarded not to look into the prospect of adding a 26-year old power forward who averaged 23.6 points and 10.1 boards last year while playing in 68 games. Much has been made about how well Amare Stoudemire has bounced back from his microfracture surgery, but you’d have to be a fool to not wax equally poetic about Zebo’s resurgence. The NBA might have had one of its worst seasons in a long time last year (that’s saying a LOT), but it got even more out of hand the minute David Stern signed off on putting Mehmut Okur into the All-Star game over Randolph. That was the most inexplicable move I’ve seen this side of trading away a 2007 first-round pick for Jiri Welsch.

Again, the Holy Trinity applies here, as it always does. I’d like to throw in a 2008 first rounder and Pavlovic in a sign-and-trade (remember, that complicates things) since Sasha is a small forward (and PDX needs a solid small forward). The Blazers can be happy that they get cap relief, a young talent in Sasha, and a draft pick for their should-have-been-All-Star. Meanwhile, the Cavs get a legitimate, elite low-post threat for the first time since Carlos Boozer skipped town. Zebo’s near-max deal goes through 2011, but if he replicates 23 and 10 in Cleveland, I doubt Ferry or owner Dan Gilbert will give a damn.

Plus, Zebo can go back to wearing a headband to hide the size of his ugly mug since McMillan doesn’t allow headbands in Portland. That has to be a plus for him.

Ray Allen

Here’s a name that pretty much came out of nowhere over the last couple of days, with the New York Daily News spearheading the speculation Monday morning.

“New Seattle SuperSonics GM Sam Presti has to figure out what to do with Ray Allen, who could be on the move if Presti decides to completely rebuild. The Sonics turned down the Toronto Raptors’ offer of the No. 1 pick last June for Allen, but the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers are just two of the teams expected to try to get Allen if he’s put on the block.”

With the Sonics looking to cut costs before they either a) move to Oklahoma or Vegas or wherever else or b) prepare to move into a new arena, it would make sense to trade their highest-paid player. It makes even more sense when that player just turned 32 and has three more years left on his contract at eight-figure salaries.

As strange as this sounds, this is the move that makes the most sense for the Cavs. Yeah, Ray Allen is 32, and he’ll be long gone before LeBron, 22, reaches his prime. But this wouldn’t be much different from what Denver is doing right now. The Nuggets have paired a 32-year old Allen Iverson with a 23-year old Carmelo Anthony in an attempt to form the most explosive 1-2 scoring punch in the NBA. Allen, who will probably retire after the last three years of his contract are up (whoa, doesn’t it seem like just yesterday when Allen was leading UConn past AI’s Georgetown Hoyas in the Big East title game?), would definitely give the Cavs the second scorer they need before then. You’re looking at a three-year window to possibly win three rings.

The only bad thing is that LeBron can opt out of his deal the same time Allen’s deal is up. Unless the Cavs win multiple titles in that time frame, the incentive for Bron to re-sign if Allen is gone and the Cavs have pretty much nothing would be very thin.

To get Allen, this would be a golden Holy Trinity scenario. The Sonics would probably drool at the site of expiring contracts and the fact that they only have to pay $4.6 million to three players, two of which come off the books next summer. But with Allen due to make $16 million next season, the Cavs would have to throw in somebody else, preferably with a workable contract. Drew Gooden doesn’t make much sense since Seattle already has Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox. If the Sonics want him, though, then they can certainly have him if that’s what it takes to get Allen. Varejao’s name could also be floated around in a sign-and-trade, but as I’ve already noted many times…

Don’t forget that, like Phoenix, Seattle has a new GM (Sam Presti) that won a championship ring with Ferry. I’m assuming the two are still on good relations, like Ferry and Kerr. Plus, the Sonics have a history of helping out the Cavs, sending Flip Murray for next to nothing at the deadline last year and then trading Shawn Kemp to Cleveland in 1997 (Kemp was Cleveland’s first-ever All-Star starter in his first year as a Cav, don’t forget that).

Rashard Lewis

Another Sonic. Lewis is an unrestricted free agent for Seattle, and again, it would be in the Cavs’ best interest here if the Blazers draft Oden. If they do, then the Sonics can draft Durant and effectively stop caring about Lewis, who is a natural small forward. But if Seattle gets Oden, look for them to aggressively try and re-sign Lewis to a team that could be a force in the West next year.

All talks about Lewis going to the Cavs in a sign-and-trade should have died the minute Peter Vecsey, the NBA’s officially licensed rumor clown, mentioned the idea. But if this is to happen, you’d probably have to see the Cavs giving up the Holy Trinity, a 2008 first-rounder, and either Varejao or Pavlovic in a sign-and-trade to get Lewis.

What makes this even more difficult to fathom even if, by some insane stretch, the Cavs do end up landing Lewis is that he plays the same position as the Cavs’ franchise player: small forward. At 6′10″, it is possible to see Lewis play power forward, but that would mean the Cavs would probably have to part with Drew Gooden in the trade and give up a ton or rebounding at the four spot. Or they can have Lewis at the three and move LeBron back to the two, where he spent most of his rookie year (but where he hasn’t played since then). That would give them a big lineup, but James is quick enough to guard most two’s.

Regardless, on a team that is desperate to add more talent, that shouldn’t be an excuse if they ever have a chance to add a guy like Lewis. Having a 6′10″ forward who is probably one of the five best shooters in the league and in the prime of his career can’t be too much of a problem.

Jason Richardson

The possibility of adding Richardson was one that was scratched briefly, with speculation starting with reports on Friday.

“There are earnest whispers that Cleveland Cavaliers general manager Danny Ferry is going to make a big pitch to deal for a legitimate sidekick for LeBron James. The Golden State Warriors’ Jason Richardson, Seattle SuperSonics’ Rashard Lewis, Portland Trailblazers’ Zach Randolph and Shawn Marion of the Phoenix Suns have been mentioned.”

Although Richardson, a two-time Slam Dunk champion, has a game that has blossomed into making him more than just another Harold Miner. J-Rich has become an explosive scorer in his first six years in the L with the high-point coming in a 23.2 points-per-game average in 2005-06, a season that included a career-high 44 dropped on Miami. He has averaged 18.3 points over the course of his career, better than any other Cavalier not named LeBron.

J-Rich is also a big, 6′6″, 225-pound shooting guard that would be a good fit for Bron. At the age of just 26, he’ll be around when the King hits his prime in a couple of years. On top of all that, Richardson is a marksman from beyond the arc. Although his three-point percentage hovers around the mid-30s, he nailed 110 treys in just 51 games played last year.

But those “51 games” is the problem. Richardson missed two months because of a broken right hand suffered in December. Still, J-Rich’s track record of games played (75, 72, 78, 82, and 80 over the previous five seasons) makes it unlikely that he is another Larry Hughes.

And speaking of Hughes, it would be difficult to bring in Richardson while having Hughes at the same position. Golden State would not want to take back Hughes, having already suffered through him for two and a half seasons earlier this decade. The Warriors are a team stocked at the guard position, with rising talents Monta Ellis and Mickael Pietrus being core pieces of their future. The Warriors need a low-post presence that can run the floor to put next to cornerstone Baron Davis, and Oakland native Drew Gooden would fit the bill. A deal for Richardson at his current contract would only require two-thirds (or even just a third) of the Holy Trinity. The expiring deals of Newble and Wesley would be just enough to pair with Gooden’s contract. Heck, even Newble’s deal alone would be enough with Gooden.

Atlanta’s #3 overall draft pick

This is probably the biggest stretch out of any of the possible scenarios, but Sports Illustrated’s Ian Thomsen was the first to indicate a link between the Hawks’ third pick overall and the Cavs.

“But the Hawks could also move the pick to Cleveland or another team hoping to trade into the draft. If the Hawks are going to pick up a young veteran by trade, they need to do so by draft night while they still have $4.6 million in cap space that permits them to take on more salary than they’re trading away. That makes Atlanta a highly seductive trading partner — but that space will vanish July 1 when its two first-round picks are automatically applied to the cap. Atlanta is in a much stronger position to trade now than it will be next month.”

This is probably one of the rare instances where the Holy Trinity would not come into play, as I doubt that the Hawks would look to move a pick that would end up being on a rookie contract for cap relief. As Thomsen’s article indicates, Atlanta is looking for a starter at center and point guard. Of course, since the Cavs happen to be on the market for the latter and have a strength with their frontcourt, they could be able to offer a package to Atlanta. Again, it’s doubtful Atlanta bites on what Cleveland has to offer, but you’d have to think that Zydrunas Ilgauskas would have to be involved.

Again, this is a stretch, and the Cavs probably can’t deal future first-round picks before the draft anyways since they don’t have a pick this year, so the pot is limited. It would be nice to see either Al Horford or Brandan Wright in a Cavs uni next to LeBron for the next 10-15 years, but do yourself a huge favor and don’t get your hopes up.

Still think that this should really be called the “off-season?”

This entry was posted on Monday, June 25th, 2007 at 11:06 am and is filed under Cavaliers. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.