Conspiracy Theory Takes Life For Celtics
There has been a preponderance of evidence that the officiating has been less than even-handed in the Celtics-Hawks play-off series, which is to be resolved in the 7th game in Boston today.
After combing through the foul differential in this series and seeing how huge of factor this has been in terms of the scoring and outcome, we expanded the analysis to the other 2008 1st round play-off series, and came up with some pretty amazing results. The teams that need the wins most from a business perspective have been awarded with officiating that gives them an advantage.
After Game 6, where Atlanta knotted the Celtics in the series 3-3, the play-off reinforced a distinct Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde feel to it. It was one way in Boston, and another way in Atlanta. The officiating had a lot to do with that, although please know that the Hawks played great in each of their wins and the Celtics did their part to hand the game over to the Hawks by countering with poor play. But to me, there seems a motive to keep the Hawks fans coming back next year, and indeed, the word was that the advance season ticket sales for next year in Atlanta were going through the roof (overheard on ESPN).
mikemartin at the Celtics17 board provided the following summary of the foul situation for the Celtics-Hawks, which is interesting indeed:
In all six games added up in this series, the Hawks have beat the C’s in free throw attempts 204 to 133.
That’s a difference of 71 attempts.
71 attempts at roughly 79% shooting (hawks ft shooting in postseason) = 56 points.
56 points divided by 6 games = 9.33 points per game
Statistically speaking, Atlanta has a 9 point advantage every game at the line this postseason.
Now, is that a testament to their play style? Or is it our inability to get the same calls at the other end?
In three games against Atlanta in the regular season, the Hawks edged us in free throw attempts 77 to 75 . . . a difference of 2 attempts.
2 attempts at roughly 70% shooting (hawks ft shooting vs Boston in 3 regular season games) = 1.4 points
1.4 points divided by 3 games = .466 points per game
So in the regular season, Atlanta had a .466 point per game advantage at the line. But somehow, in the postseason, that same stat jumps to 9.33 points per game?! Did Atlanta become that much better at driving to the basket since April 12th?
Astonishing. That is why it’s hard for the homer Celtics fans like myself not to point to the officiating.
A comparison of free throws attempted per game (fta/g) and personal fouls per game (pf/g) for each of the 16 teams in the play-offs this year (throught the 1st round) is provided below.
team fta/g pf/g
======================================
BostonCeltics 22.2 26.0
AtlantaHawks 34.0 20.7
Diff -11.8 5.3
DetroitPistons 19.0 23.7
Philadelphia76ers 30.0 19.2
Diff -11.0 4.5
ClevelandCavaliers 29.2 23.2
WashingtonWizards 29.0 22.8
Diff 0.2 0.3
OrlandoMagic 26.4 18.0
TorontoRaptors 19.2 22.8
Diff 7.2 -4.8
LALakers 29.8 22.5
DenverNuggets 29.0 25.5
Diff 0.8 -3.0
NOrleansHornets 21.6 22.4
DallasMavericks 30.0 20.6
Diff -8.4 1.8
SanAntonioSpurs 24.2 27.6
PhoenixSuns 30.4 22.6
Diff -6.2 5.0
HoustonRockets 26.2 21.2
UtahJazz 25.3 21.8
Diff 0.8 -0.7
The inordinate amount of shooting fouls per game (+5.3) and lack of free throws attempted per game (-11.8) on the Celtics has them maxing out the fta/g and pf/g differentials compared to any other playoff match-up. Something’s not right for the 3rd best all-time defensive team to be stuck with that disadvantage, especially when during the regular season the Celtics essentially the same number of personal fouls per game (-0.6) and rate of free throws attempted per game (+0.2) . It begs the question - what’s up with this Atlanta series?
Expanding the trend to the other playoff series, the teams that have the biggest advantage in terms of fouls called are:
1. Atlanta on Boston
2. Suns on San Antonio
3. Orlando on Toronto
4. Philadelphia on Detroit
But what is even more curious is that the playoff teams with the weakest attendance (in terms of % capacity) are showing up with the most gift-wrapped officiating - if fouls called and free throws attempted are any indication. In order of % capacity in attendance for the 2007-08 season, the playoff teams with the weakest attendance are listed first:
1. Atlanta
2. Philadelphia
3. Washington
4. Denver
5. Phoenix
So let’s carry the conspiracy theory one more step. The NBA and Cleveland need LeBron more than Washington needed to push the playoff to a 7th game, so Washington didn’t get any help, and actually didn’t need any help to make that one close.
Denver got no help because the NBA is on a mission to crown Kobe as the next Big Thing. Same with Toronto not getting help because Dwight Howard and the Magic appear to becoming the darlings of the NBA, especially since the Magic missed out on the playoffs last year. Plus, the Magic had the 3rd most FTAs during the regular season, with people playing Hack-a-Howard and Turkoglu being one of several slashers on the team forcing contact.
You be the judge - isn’t there something going on here? Do you trust Stern and the officiating. Many don’t. We know their is trouble in the game when the NBA reaches to call flagrants one way, and not the other way. The Suns-Spurs scuffle last year in the playoffs was a debacle with key players being thrown out.
Ralph Nader has been on to the NBA and spoke out on the Kings-Lakers series in 2002, where he stated:
Nader cited Washington Post sports columnist Michael Wilbon who wrote that too many of the calls in the fourth quarter (when the Lakers received 27 foul shots) were “stunningly incorrect,” all against Sacramento.
After noting that the three referees in Game 6 “are three of the best in the game, Wilbon wrote: “I have never seen officiating in a game of consequence as bad as that in Game 6….When Pollard, on his sixth and final foul, didn’t as much as touch Shaq. Didn’t touch any part of him. You could see it on TV, see it at courtside. It wasn’t a foul in any league in the world. And Divac, on his fifth foul, didn’t foul Shaq. They weren’t subjective or borderline or debatable. And these fouls not only resulted in free throws, they helped disqualify Sacramento’s two low-post defenders. And one might add, in a 106-102 Lakers’ victory, this officiating took away what would have been a Sacramento series victory in 6 games.”
Nader went on, “Wilbon discounted any conspiracy theories about the NBA-NBC desire for a Game 7 etc., but unless the NBA orders a review of this game’s officiating, perceptions and suspicions, however presently absent any evidence, will abound and lead to more distrust and distaste for the games in general.”
Bad stuff happens in the NBA, and when the officiating goes as lop-sided as it has in the Celtics-Hawks series, you have to take Stern and his cronies, the lop-sided officiating, and might as well as add the lame below-board drafting process, and clean the mess up.
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18 Responses to “Conspiracy Theory Takes Life For Celtics”
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:02 pm
Maybe the Crips have taken over the NBA with the help of David Stern, and want to embarrass the Bloods by having Paul Pierce lose to an inferior team.
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Good read Bob, all you have to do is look at the NBA’s recent history of events with Tim Donaghy and to an extent Joe Crawford (who officiated game 6) to see that this theory is completely in the realm of possibility.
May 3rd, 2008 at 11:49 pm
So do you think people just wanted to make a lot of money betting on the Hawks? i’m not sure Atlanta winning really is what anyone would want…Boston has the bigger fan base and it seems like the general public wouldn’t mind a Celtics Lakers final…I know the numbers look pretty bad, but as an Atlanta fan, I’ve seen us get the wrong calls for a long time…one thing I’d like to offer for consideration is the fact that near the end of the game Boston isn’t afraid to foul Atlanta and make us shoot free throws…Atlanta does not want Boston to be at the line at the end of the game. That being said, the numbers do make you think…
May 4th, 2008 at 7:55 am
Bottom line though: why would the NBA want the number one story of it’s season, the revival of the Celtic franchise, to end in May?
May 4th, 2008 at 9:02 am
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May 4th, 2008 at 9:16 am
I tell you this makes me a believer for the first time in something wierd going on. Wierd, means”follow the money trail”. It doesn’t matter where or when, whatever has the most money behind it, there is always “a presence,” of special interests. And where there is a strong enough presence, a significant enough amount of money, there will eventually be a connection between the normal flow of cause and effect and “an extra” effect based on human desire, human greed. I don’t care how long it takes, the connection will be made eventually, or sooner rather than later. We only have a correlation here. I love correlations. because generally the smart operatives have no one in the room except the fly on the wall and correlations when they’ve exchanged a handshake for an envelope.
May 4th, 2008 at 10:31 am
GW III, i agree that the league doesn’t want the C’s out of this thing in May, but you can’t deny that it behooves the NBA financially to extend a series, and create a great “underdog story” at the same time.
May 4th, 2008 at 11:31 am
The last thing the league wants is to risk a potential Celtics-Lakers finals. We’ve relied too much on jump shots this series while the Hawks have consistently taken it to the rim. We don’t want to single guard Johnson, but when we double him it allows him to kick out to some one who can then take it to the rim. Plus, even if they Hawks are getting the benefit of the whistle, there is NO WAY we should be playing a game 7 against them.
May 4th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
To answer GWIII, it’s because the league knows the Celtics are a better team and thus will be able to overcome the disadvantage of lopsided officiating. (By the way, I felt this way long before Game 7.)
May 4th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Good comments all, and thanks to Chase Kuech for keeping an open mind because it’s a bit of a tight-rope here, trying to explain the conspiracy as not something that gift wraps the game for the beneficiary, but is more of a handicap system to juice things up from a marketing standpoint.
If anything, I wonder if the Celtics player and coaches dont’ see what’s going on and instead of complain, which gets you nowhere, play more half-assed and know they can take care of things at home (which they certainly did today to finish the Hawks off).
May 4th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Nice breakdown… Celtics are a pathetic bunch, hopefully they can step up and show what everyone has been raving about in round two against Lebron and company.
May 4th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Um… Lakers Blog, did I miss something or didn’t the Celtics sweep the Lakers this season? Double digit wins, both times.
If I recall correctly, Lamar Odom was so frustrated by having his butt kicked, he committed a flagrant foul about 20 feet away from the hoop. Have to say, that was one of the first times I’ve seen something THAT pathetic on the court…
May 5th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Of course the typical excuse from Lakers fans would be that the Celtics victories happened before the acquisition of Pau Gasol. That’s all I hear from them nowadays. Tired excuse is what it is.
Gasol is good…really good, but I still wouldn’t automatically drop the Celtics against the Lakers over a rough patch in the playoffs.
May 17th, 2008 at 3:49 am
First off, you fans, much like Doc Rivers, sound like true champions whining about the refs. Yeah, I can totally see the Spurs bitching about the officiating when they have homecourt advantage.
Second, the Celtic have been outplayed in all but three halves of basketball versus the Cavs. Yet, it has netted 3 victories.
Third, watch the tapes and I’m sure you’ll see that a) the Celtics have gotten more than their fair share of calls in this series, and b) Lebron has actually been fouled far more times than the officials have blown their whistles in his defense.
The charge against Pierce, while probably not the best call, was also not the worst call I’ve ever seen, and it was certainly no worse than Lebron’s charge in game 5.
The Delonte West block, was not basket interference, since the ball had hit the side of the backboard, was moving away from the basket, and according to NBA rules “For goaltending to occur, the ball, in the judgment of the official, must have a chance to score.”
In general, the NBA wants the home team to win. The true test of a good NBA team is how well they play on the road. When I see a team scoring over 20 points below their regular season average FOR THE ENTIRE SERIES, I generally assume that the other team might be playing some pretty good D. I would also assume that a team that has a great disparity between their playoff home a road record/statistics is getting some pretty good calls at home, is perhaps favored by the NBA (it is a storied franchise, after all), and is almost certainly overrated.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:25 am
I’ve been looking for an article like this since the Atlanta series. To the guy that questioned why the NBA would favor Atlanta when they seemingly want the Celtics to re-emerge, the NBA never wanted Atlanta to win. They only wanted Atlanta to win the home games. After the first away game, I noticed the officiating. But it was during the start of game 4 that I really figured out what was going on. All the announcers could talk about was “the resurgence of basketball in Atlanta.” When I heard that, I knew where we were headed. Then even in game 7, David Stern shows up to talk about … guess what?
In Cleveland, sure, there could have been more fouls called for LB. There can always be more fouls called. But the celtics were getting hammered on the other end and getting no calls. In the end, the discrepancy of FT’s speaks for itself. I challenge anyone to really look at the tape. Count the fouls both ways. Examine who’s really taking the ball to the basket and who’s shooting jump shots.
David Stern must think the average fan is really stupid.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Thanks Cole - it’s hard for some people to see that, but to you and I at least, it’s obvious. I’m hoping that the average fan is NOT stupid - it that is the case, it would be a poor reflection on the human race, but then I don’t know what the appeal of professional wrestling and some other sports have to the masses either.
August 17th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
As far as conspiracy, the NBA causes much of this talk. Sure the officiating, seems to favor what makes the most money for the NBA (sometimes a small market team can win) and player movement seems to always favor big market teams. come on Boston traded a bunch of stiffs for an all NBA player. Of course Ainge is brillant. Why did the trade go in that direction? Lakers get an all NBA player for a bunch of bench players. Are you serious? So the NBA home office can not determine what a fair trade is? Why is it just those two teams that have histroically consistent good breaks, favorable rulings on loopholes in rules (Bird draft pick) etc.
In the losing small markets, the NBA is agressively promoting the almost won logic. Atlanta does not have to win for the NBA to win. You see, if a small market teams almost wins, stupid small market fans will think they are close and buy tickets for the next season. Spread some money to the other owners, but no championship banners are needed. That is the first goal of all owners remember money. With Cleveland it is a little different. Of course, with the best player in the game, Cleveand fans were already going to be there. Every game was sold out and will be sold out as long as Lebron is a Cav.. But the NBA wants something else to happen. I am sure the NBA will load up another east coast team with and all star. Maybe Mchale will help out Philly. Nah he would not do that. Why you ask? Because it is in the NBA’s best interest to give Lebron an excuse to leave Cleveland and say go to New York. Can not do that if Cleveland wins a championship or even makes the finals? Money is not the issue, because the Cleveland franshice understands that 3,000 people at every game is very likley without him? The team will go back to be a loser. Can you say Seattle? Hey philly is just a lopsided trade away from being good and there are plenty of broke (no dollars) Small market western conference teams.
Better ask marketing if that makes the NBA more money of the next couple of years. Of course, the nba do not want the small market team to get to good. Will make sure Cleveland gets a lesser player then Lebron. How come Utah wins 50+ every year, kicks butt at home, but never wins any championships. Two words “Profit Model”.
August 17th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Scott D - I think you are certainly on the right track. But personally, I don’t wish what the Celtics had to go through to rebuild the team on anyone. To quote Hemingway, it was salao - the worst form of luck, the the Celtics have had until they were able to pull off the Garnett and Allen trades. It just the reality of the situation. The Celtics endured the worst, longer than any of their large market counterparts during the last 20+/- years, until now.
Len Bias
Reggie Lewis
Rick Pitino
Tim Duncan
Greg Oden/Kevin Durant
years of bad drafting during the 90s
Vin Baker
Raef LaFrentz
trading away Billups
trading away Joe Johnson
and the list goes on . . .
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