Which NBA Team Will Shock Us All?
Every season, one team comes out of the basement like a 20-something who finally got a job.
Last season, the Toronto Raptors had a pretty amazing turnaround, and it saved Sam Mitchell’s coaching career. The previous season, the New Orleans Hornets turned their franchise around 180 degrees. So who’s it gonna be this season?
If we’re going to make a prediction, we can narrow things down to a few teams. There were some great teams last season, like the Mavericks, Spurs, Suns, etc.
So who will it be this year? We’ve got a few options. First, the never-minds:
- Boston Celtics: too easy
- Milwaukee Bucks: a perennial favorite for a turnaround, but Larry Krystkowiak? Don’t bet on it.
- Atlanta Hawks: shades of Milwaukee, they should always turn things around “next year”, but it doesn’t happen. Could this be their year? I’d say it’s more likely than Milwaukee, but I still won’t bet on it.
- LA Clippers: last year they finished under .500 with Elton Brand. This season, no Brand, no Shaun Livingston, less Sam Cassell, and a coach who won’t play their best player - yep, Corey Maggette is their best player. No change in Clipperland this year.
- Seattle Supersonics: nothing good is happening in Seattle these days. Sure, Kevin Durant is nice, but he’s nice anywhere, and Seattle isn’t going to have him for long. I like a lot of their pieces, but it’s going to take a few years for the basketball people moving the pieces to figure things out.
- New Jersey Nets: Jamaal Magloire? I hope it helps. Everyone is a year older, and in Jason Kidd’s case, that’s not great news. Vince is good to miss about 25 games. Jefferson might be good all season, but if he get re-injured…things won’t look good in Jersey. Brooklyn what?
- New York Knicks: don’t even get me started
- New Orleans Hornets: they weren’t terrible last season, but they didn’t make the playoffs and were without Peja and Chris Paul for a lot of time. If those two can be there, it’s a lot easier for them to get into the second season, but still not a lock. This is a “wait-and-see” team.
Now, the maybes:
- Minnesota: they only won, what, 32 games last season? How can they not do any better this year? And they had KG last season! So maybe they turn it around and break even next year. If they start the season warm, it will be a big story. But will they make it big? Probably not, since they’re in the West. But they’ll almost certainly be better than 32 games.
- Sacramento Kings: I’m not sure what to make of this team. They have some nice pieces, but a working machine is more than a bunch of nice pieces. I can’t wait to see the season premiere of Hang Time: Sacramento though.
- Washington Wizards: will this team ever win more than 43 games? Actually, better question: will this team win more than the 41 they won (and lost) last season? This team plays like they could win over 50, and this season could very well win their division (if Orlando fails to get it together, that is). But a big turnaround? I’m not so sure it’s in them.
Finally, I believe in:
- Memphis Grizzlies: here’s a team that comes into the season completely under the radar. They have about 12 point guards (OK, more like 5, no joke) and an athletic core of young guys, sort of like Minnesota…only they’ve played together before. I like them to surprise a lot of people and win 32-36 games.
- Charlotte Bobcats: among NBA circles, this is no under-the-radar team. They have a lot of talent, and have spent a lot of time wearing that “expansion” label to sort of fall under the radar. But now, shit gets real. This is a stacked team, Pamela Anderson approved. I mean, how does this team not make the playoffs? Gerald Wallace is pretty incredible. Jason Richardson is going to be dy-no-mite. Ray Felton is a pretty special point guard. Emeka Okafor may not be as good as Dwight Howard will be someday, but right now he’s a heckuva nice power forward, probably one of the top 5 in the NBA based on his stats. Matt Carroll can shoot. Adam Morrison should be better. Walter Hermann is their glue guy. I really, really like this team, as you can guess based on the number of words I’ve given them. Watch out.
- Golden State Warriors: is there a team in the NBA that will use last year’s playoff run as better motivation than Oakland? Methinks not. This isn’t a team built to run around for 82 games, but they will be better. It’s hard to justify it unless you use last year’s playoffs, though. They’re still playing in the West, and they’re still not a very strong team with any inside presence. However, they proved that such a presence is unnecessary playing Nellie’s way. They’ve got all their pieces back minus J-Rich, so look for them to have some more success this season.
- Indiana Pacers: I know what you’re thinking. Everyone have written off the Pacers. Already. So why call them a sleeper? Well, I think you’ve just answered your own question, but they’re actually a pretty nice team that should make the playoffs in one of the low seeds. Jermaine O’Neal, when healthy, is an All-Star. Troy Murphy isn’t flashy, but he can play. I had him a couple years back in fantasy and he contributes in a very meaningful way. Danny Granger isn’t going to be a good player? Jamaal Tinsley might have an “up” season after a few down ones. Mike Dunleavy, Ike Diogu, and Marquis Daniels round out a pretty solid team…on paper. I’m not betting much on them, but I have some faith in Jim O’Brien. Just enough to say they’ll win more than 40 games.
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10 Responses to “Which NBA Team Will Shock Us All?”
October 18th, 2007 at 10:07 pm
The BEST preseason Roundtable over at:
www.clutch3.com
Check it out!
October 18th, 2007 at 11:00 pm
I actually have the Grizzlies making the playoffs. Bobcats too. Magic will be the 3 seed.
The Pacers are intriguing. They are like last year’s Warriors team. Only replace B-Diddy with J Tinsley. And there is no Monta Ellis there. But I think O’Brien is way underrated. I was pissed when Philly dumped him for Mo Cheeks.
October 19th, 2007 at 9:05 am
I like the Grizzlies but will they play defense?
Losing Sean May was a big lost for the Bobcats so their depth in the frontcourt is a concern, if Hollins can’t contribute.
I thinkt he Hawks will surprise a lot of people this year. They have to do it. That team has been together for a while and I think Josh Smith is turning himself into a superstar.
October 19th, 2007 at 11:06 am
[…] 3. Which teams will shock us all this season? Chris Clarke likes the Grizzlies, Warriors, Cats and … the Pacers!? Clarke: “[Indiana] is a pretty nice team that should make the playoffs in one of the low seeds. Jermaine O’Neal, when healthy, is an All-Star. Troy Murphy isn’t flashy, but he can play. […] Jamaal Tinsley might have an “up” season after a few down ones. Mike Dunleavy, Ike Diogu, and Marquis Daniels round out a pretty solid team … on paper. I’m not betting much on them, but I have some faith in Jim O’Brien. Just enough to say they’ll win more than 40 games.” [End of the Bench] […]
October 19th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
No love for the defending Eastern Conference champions. No love. We’re winning 60 this year, just wait and see.
October 19th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
Amar,
I have the Cavs returning to the Finals on LeBron’s efforts alone (he wins regular season MVP too). They lose again, although not a sweep. The Suns are champs.
October 19th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
I never give Cleveland love. You know why? Because LeBron absolutely carries that team. I think he’s deserved 2 MVP awards by now. Aside from him, this is a bad team.
I don’t know how you do it, Amar. It’s gotta be a love/hate relationship at Cavalier Attitude!
October 19th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
Chris-
The Cavs were the second-best rebounding team and a top-five defensive team last year. They were #1 in defending the three-point line. Oh, and they were also the #1 offensive rebounding team in the league. Maybe it’s just me, but LeBron is not known for:
1) rebouding
2) offensive rebounding
3) defense
4) defending the three-point line
Somebody not named LeBron has gotta be doing something right - either the supporting cast or the coaching staff. I’m voting for the latter. Either way, like I’ve said before: the whole is greater than the sum of its parts for the Cavs.
But like you said, it’s love-hate at Cavalier Attitude. That does not, however, mean that I’ll be missing any chances I get to call you out whenever the Cavs prove you wrong during the regular season!!!
October 19th, 2007 at 7:26 pm
I found this on ESPN.com from Hollinger and it echoes my sentiments:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp07/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=CavaliersPreview0708&univLogin02=stateChanged
(It’s ESPN Insider but they’re doing a free preview right now, so unless you and your readers subscribe to ESPN Insider, this link will only work for a few days, maybe even a week.)
Here’s the story everyone heard about the 2006-07 Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James.
Contrary to popular opinion, the Cavs weren’t a one-man show.
Allow me to present an alternate narrative.
While King James certainly was a major factor, especially when his outrageous one-man show produced 25 straight points to defeat Detroit in Game 5 of the conference finals, the Cavs didn’t succeed because of their ability to score.
In fact, they won in spite of it. James had a slow start to the season by his standards, and no shooters were on hand to help pick up the slack. Because of this the Cavs were an extremely poor offensive team for an NBA finalist, ranking 21st in field goal percentage, 18th in 3-point percentage, and below the league average in the frequency of both 3-point attempts and free-throw attempts. Not that more foul shots would have helped them much — they were 29th in free-throw percentage, with James’ disappointing 69.8 percent mark a huge reason why.
Overall, the Cavs’ 52.2 true shooting percentage ranked 29th in the NBA. Yes, 29th — only the Hornets were worse. They might have had the King, but it was one of the league’s most easily defended teams. Several factors contributed — they gave over 4,000 minutes to three guards, Eric Snow, Damon Jones and Daniel Gibson, who were practically worthless (at least until the Eastern Conference finals); they had another hugely disappointing season from guard Larry Hughes; and their offense continued to be one of the league’s least imaginative, relying heavily on a play that in theory was a pick-and-roll and in practice was a pick-and-stand-around-while-LeBron-retreats-to-midcourt-and-the-shot-clock-runs-out.
[b]However, despite those numbers Cleveland ranked 19th in offensive efficiency because of the one thing they did do well. That thing had little to do with LeBron: offensive rebounding. The Cavs didn’t have a frontcourt All-Star (not counting LeBron), but the four-man combo of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejao and Donyell Marshall was as deep and effective as any in basketball. The former three players all had offensive rebound rates above 11, making the Cavs one of only two teams to do so — Washington was the other — and because of them Cleveland was the league’s third-best offensive rebounding team, pulling down 29.7 percent of its misses. That the Cavs had so many missed shots to pull down magnified the effect of the rebounding.[/b]
Cleveland’s edge on the boards extended to the defensive end, and here LeBron was a much bigger factor. The Cavs were second in defensive rebound rate, pulling down 75.8 percent of opponents’ missed shots; between the offense and defense Cleveland ranked second in the league in combined rebound rate.
Defensive Rebound Rate: 2006-07 Leaders
TEAM RATE
Houston 77.0
Cleveland 75.8
San Antonio 75.7
Utah 75.1
Dallas 75.0
League average 72.9
But defensively, the Cavs were good at much more than just rebounding. This was the main reason they won 50 games and ended up in the Finals — even on “first shots” the Cavs were the league’s sixth-best defense, and overall they ranked fourth in defensive efficiency.
[b]Cleveland was good at nearly everything, including forcing a high rate of turnovers and a subpar shooting percentage, but where they really excelled was in a specialty coach Mike Brown imported from San Antonio — cutting off the 3-point line. Because his big men could handle one-on-one match-ups and rarely needed double-team help, the Cavs were able to shut of the 3. Only 19.4 percent of opponent attempts came from beyond the arc, the seventh-best figure in the league.[/b]
Additionally, those shots that did go up rarely found their mark. The Cavs led the NBA in 3-point defense, permitting just 32.9 percent from the floor — allowing Brown to outrank even his mentor Gregg Popovich.
Opponent 3-Point Percentage: 2006-07 Leaders
TEAM OPP. 3A/FGA OPP. 3-PT%
Cleveland .194 32.9
San Antonio .170 33.4
LA Clippers .208 33.9
Detroit .190 33.9
Minnesota .222 34.8
League average .213 35.8
Brown hasn’t received nearly enough credit for this. He’s become something of a magnet for critics, and certainly his performance during the playoffs provided plenty of ammo in the strategy department — he left a hobbled Hughes in the starting lineup in the Finals, showed little imagination in his offensive sets, and displayed an almost supernatural ability to run out of timeouts right before he really, really needed one.
But those defensive numbers blow me away. While having the big frontcourt players was nice, it wasn’t obvious to anyone that this should be a great defensive team. Individually, not one Cav received even a single vote from the coaches for the All-Defense team (but Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas both did — thanks for paying attention, guys), and only Varejao and Snow appeared to be top-notch individual defenders. But the Cavs played hard, stayed in the team concept, and bothered opponents with a huge backcourt of 6-5 Hughes and 6-7 Sasha Pavlovic.
October 27th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Knicks will shock the 07-07 season. They are young, talented, scorers, and etc. If they dont get injured and if they play good defense and chemistry then they will go to the 07-08 NBA Playoffs.
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