Are the Lakers Ref Favorites?
While the Lakers were busy losing to the Rockets on Sunday, I was chatting with Matt from Hardwood Paroxysm. During half-time, he expressed a view that is held by fans across the United States: That the Lakers consistently receive an unfair advantage from the referees.
Here’s how the conversation went:
Matt: …here [the Lakers] come.
Me: Fingers crossed, but Houston’s got the defense to hold it off.
Matt: Not if you guys get the obligatory ref love you’re used to, like I’m expecting. No way Kobe loses on national television. That ain’t how this league works.
Me: Well… 5-point game [from 15], and it hasn’t been on “gimme” fouls.
Matt: Oh, no, you’ll fight within range, and then Houston will battle back, and then.. whistle, whistle, whistle.
With 8:21 left in the third quarter, we decided to start keeping track. At that point, the Rockets actually held an edge over the Lakers in free throws attempted: 13-19.
With 7:48 remaining in the fourth, the Lakers had reclaimed the free throw edge, having attempted 26 free throws to the Rockets’ 23. Needless to say, Matt felt vindicated. But down the stretch, which is where Matt claims the Lakers free throw advantage is largest, the Lakers attempted only four more free throws, while the Rockets attempted six. The two teams finished neck and neck, L.A. with 30, Houston with 29.
The Lakers lost the game, but I had won my argument… for this game, at least.
But this question of referee favoritism is an interesting one. I certainly echo the sentiment Matt expressed when he said, “That ain’t how this league works” — that is, that the NBA can be accused of many things, but objectivity and impartiality are not two of those things.
On the other hand, it seems to me that most fans, regardless of their team, feel that their team gets the short end of the officiating stick. Brian Kamenetzky recently made that point very well on the LA Times Lakersblog:
Just came across [this clip] over at Sactown Royalty (via our friends at Forum Blue and Gold). [It’s] fun because it shows that every team’s fans, after every game, go through the same questions about officiating, coaching strategy, player performance, etc. that happens here.
Unfortunately, Matt’s sentiments regarding the supposed favoritism the Lakers enjoy from the referees are shared by most fans of the other 29 teams in the NBA. And Matt had me wondering: Is it true? Do the Lakers receive preferential treatment from the referees?
To answer this question, let’s look at three things: Free Throws Attempted (Per Game and Per 100 Possessions), offensive tendencies, and Free Throw Differential.
Free Throws Attempted
The simplest comparison of free throw trends is a team’s average Free Throws Attempted (FTA) per game. It stands to reason that a team that experiences preferential treatment from the referees would take more free throws than other teams. Does this hold true for the Lakers?
Here are the top ten teams in the NBA in Free Throws Attempted:
1. Denver
2. Utah
3. Orlando
4. LA Lakers
5. Sacramento
6. New Jersey
7. Atlanta
8. Boston
9. LA Clippers
10. New York
Clearly, Matt’s perception of the Lakers as receiving a favorable amount of foul calls is not completely unfounded, as they are fourth on the list. However, it’s interesting to note that Denver, Utah, and Orlando all take more free throws than the Lakers. When was the last time you heard someone complaining that the Nuggets, Jazz, or Magic “get all the calls”?
Free Throws Attempted Per 100 Possessions
While Free Throws Attempted supports Matt’s theory to an extent, it only tell us that the Lakers shoot more free throws than most teams in the league. It doesn’t tell us why. There are, in fact, several legitimate reasons for which a team might attempt a high number of free throws. One such reason is the number of possessions a team uses. It stands to reason that a team that averages more possessions — whether that be due to forced turnovers, rebounding, game pace, etc. — would also have more opportunities for free throws.
To account for how possessions could affect Free Throws Attempted, we look at Free Throws Attempted Per 100 Possessions (FTA/100). Here are the top ten teams in the NBA in terms of the number of free throws they take per 100 possessions:
1. Orlando
2. Utah
3. Denver
4. New Jersey
5. Atlanta
6. Boston
7. Sacramento
8. LA Lakers
9. LA Clippers
10. New York
As you can see, the Lakers dropped from 4th in FTA to 8th in FTA/100. Since the Lakers currently play at the 6th quickest pace in the NBA (averaging 98.7 possessions per game), this would seem to support the theory that their high FTA numbers are due in part to the pace at which they play. In fact, the fact that they are 6th in pace but only 8th in FTA/100 would seem to indicate that they actually take fewer free throws than their pace warrants.
Offensive Tendencies
A second reason for which a team might average a high number of Free Throws Attempted is its offensive tendencies. Teams that are more aggressive and attack the paint more frequently are likely to be fouled more often, and therefore receive more foul calls, than teams that take a large number of 3-point shots.
For example, the top two teams in FTA/100, Utah and Orlando, also happen to rank 1st and 4th, respectively, in Points in the Paint.
The Lakers are a bottom-half team in the paint, ranking 18th in the NBA in Points in the Paint. They’re also 8th in the league in 3-point shots attempted (3PA) with 20.4 per game. This likely explains why they’re 6th in the NBA in pace, but only 8th in Free Throws Attempted Per 100 Possessions.
Free Throw Differential
Perhaps the most complete comparison of free throw trends is a team’s Free Throw Differential. The Free Throw Differential is the difference between the number of free throws attempted by a team and the number attempted by their opponents. The equation is as follows:
Own FTA - Opponents FTA = Free Throw Differential
Simply put, if a team has a positive Free Throw Differential, they average more free throws per game than their opponents. If they have a negative Free Throw Differential, they average less than their opponents.
Here are the top ten teams in the NBA in Free Throw Differential:
1. Denver
2. Philadelphia
3. LA Lakers
4. Orlando
5. Memphis
6. Atlanta
7. Washington
8. New York
9. San Antonio
10. Phoenix
Clearly, the Lakers average more Free Throws Attempted than their opponents. However, even in Free Throw Differential the Lakers do not enjoy the largest advantage over their opponents. Denver and Philadelphia both enjoy an even larger free throw advantage over their opponents than Los Angeles.
In fact, Denver ranks first overall in Free Throws Attempted Per Game, third in Free Throws Attempted Per 100 Possessions, and first in Free Throw Differential. Perhaps fans of the other 28 teams in the NBA should focus their officiating-based resentment on the Nuggets, rather than the Lakers.
(Sidenote: As if the Warriors didn’t already have reason enough to play with a chip on their shoulders, consider this: They suffer from the third worst Free Throw Differential in the NBA, despite the fact that they are 2nd in the NBA in both pace and Points in the Paint. If a Warriors fan complained to me that his team is usually on the wrong side of the officiating, I wouldn’t argue.)
The Numbers Tell the Story
This perception that the Lakers take more free throws than their opponents is not incorrect, but the most common explanation for why they take so many free throws is. It is not because the referees favor them. It is because they play at a faster pace — one which warrants more free throw opportunities.
It is also simply not true that the Lakers are the “teacher’s pet” of the NBA. Were that the case, their Free Throw Differential — reflecting the free throw advantage they enjoy over their opponents — would rank first in the league, and by a substantial margin. As it is, they rank 3rd in the NBA, apparently no more favored than Philadelphia or Orlando.
Perhaps the most telling fact out of all of this is that not one of the other teams that top these lists — Denver, Utah, Orlando, Philadelphia, Memphis, etc. — is ever mentioned as receiving preferential treatment by the officials.
Perhaps the Lakers’ reputation for being referee favorites has less to do with the calls made during the games, and more to do with the fact that they are the most hated team in the league.
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11 Responses to “Are the Lakers Ref Favorites?”
March 17th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Funny story, earlier this season the Cavs played the Magic and it came down to the refs calling a jump ball, when it was clearly a foul on Hedo Turkgolu, at the end of the game (about 2 seconds left) for the Magic to win it. A JUMP BALL, are you kidding me??? So, it doesn’t surprise me that Magic get calls. I often maintain that the Cavs get killed by the refs. LeBron gets calls sometimes but other times he is just hacked and gets nothing and if anyone else on the Cavs tries to get a call it’s like pulling teeth. Z is usually the one getting killed at yet seeing no love from the res by being sent to the line.
March 17th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Great article Josh. In my opinion, referees always like the organized teams that have a collection of quality people. Teams that run an offensive system are also easier to officiate, because the refs have an idea where the balls going to, and what’s going to happen. Less chance for a ref to be out of position.
Overall I think the officiating needs much improvement, and that’s the bigger problem. Some refs are just bad.
Welcome aboard
March 17th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Thanks, Ed — and thanks for being willing to share your space with me, here on MVN.
I certainly agree with you that the officiating needs a lot of help. I often wonder how long it will take for the NBA to get with the times and allow instant replay. I think that even the ability to challenge two or three plays, like in football, would go a long way towards answering the constant complaints of lopsided officiating.
The idea that refs have an easier time officiating more organized teams is an interesting one. I’m sure there’s some validity to it — the theory being the same as the one some suspect is behind the new arm sleeves worn by players like Kobe and AI on their shooting arms: That it makes it easier to SEE the foul. And that’s one step closer to calling it.
March 17th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Chris,
I think I heard that story once before. Jump balls are often close calls, so it wouldn’t surprise me if a team that theoretically has an officiating edge would get the advantage of that call, in particular.
Regarding Cleveland, I don’t think they get killed by the refs. LeBron gets more than his share of calls — while there are definitely calls he should get but doesn’t, there are also plenty he shouldn’t get but does. The last time I checked, he ranked second in the league in FTAs, with none other than Dwight Howard ranking first.
I can look up the stats I pulled together regarding Cleveland as a whole later (I’m currently on my lunch break at work, my research is at home), but if memory serves, I don’t think they suffer any serious disadvantage in Free Throw Differential. They’re not one of the top teams in the league, but I don’t think they’re getting the Golden State treatment, either. I’ll give you more details later today, though, including their pace and offensive tendencies. Check back for it if you get a chance.
March 17th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
I find your post lacking concrete solid argument. Yes I’m a Laker fan, but an overall basketball fan and have found that the LA Lakers do not have an advantage over their opponents on calls. As a matter of fact, I feel the opposite. I have a big screen TV (as well as NBA Pass) and I’m able to see so many missed calls that are clearly fouls on Kobe Bryant. The Lakers may have an advantage over their opponents on free throws, but it’s due to their aggressive drives to the basket, which is basically part of their offensive game plan. With a player of Kobe’s talent, he drives the lane and gets hacked, tapped or bumped and there’s not always a call. I hate the fact that referees play such a huge role in the outcome of basketball games. Just last week I was watching the Spurs play against the Suns and the game went in favor of the Suns because of horrible referee-ing. Now if we were talking about the ShowTime Lakers (Magic, Kareem, Worthy, etc.) then I would agree with your opinion. When the Lakers had Shaq, the Lakers did not get calls in their favor as well. I’m not sure what your point is, but I will give my opinion on your top 10 and why they are ranked in the top 10.
1. Denver - AI creates shots by driving the lane and at time dishing to Melo or Camby.
2. Utah - D-Williams creates shots for his teammates by driving the lane and dishing to Boozer.
3. Orlando - Penetrate and dish to the big fella
4. LA Lakers - Their game is down in the paint
5. Sacramento - See #1&2
6. New Jersey - J-Kidd was their PG and he always drove the lanes and dish to his big fellas
7. Atlanta - I don’t watch them, so I have no opinion.
8. Boston - Well what can we say about their offense overall. It’s all in the paint, especially with Rondo running the offense.
9. LA Clippers - I’m surprised to see them in the top ten, but I know that Maggette’s game is down in the paint.
10. New York - The games I’ve seen is that their points are scored in the paint. Drive and dish.
The NBA changes their rules and some of the calls are ridiculous. There are times they let them play, but more than anything they don’t so they can’t get into any sort of rhythm. It’s a systematic flaw and not favoritism on a particular team. I can’t say I agree with you.
March 18th, 2008 at 7:51 am
Chris,
Here’s what we’ve got regarding Cleveland.
Free Throw Differential for the league ranges from +5.9 (Denver) to -7.2 (Minnesota). For reference, the Lakers are a +4.3 (notice that Denver is significantly ahead of LA in FTD), and the Warriors are a -4.6.
As I suspected, Cleveland isn’t “getting killed” by the refs. They’re a -0.9 in Free Throw Differential, which essentially means that they’re virtually even with their opponents in terms of Free Throws Attempted per game. They’re in the middle of the pack (18 of the 30 teams in the league are within 2 points of zero FTD).
In overall Free Throws Attempted per game, they’re directly in the middle of the league, ranking 16th out of 30.
To see why they’re slightly negative in Free Throw Differential, and why they’re not higher up on the list in Free Throws Attempted per game, let’s look at their offensive tendencies.
They rank 27th out of 30 in Points in the Paint. They rank 6th in the league in “Points Out of the Paint” (thank you, HoopsSports.com), and 11th in the league in 3-point shots attempted. Given all of this — especially their very low Points in the Paint — it’s understandable that they wouldn’t be near the top of the league in Free Throw Attempts.
Let’s compare them to the Lakers. The Lakers are not tops in the NBA in Points in the Paint, ranking 18th, but they’re still a lot better in that category than 27th. But unlike Cleveland, the Lakers have a very quick pace (6th quickest in the league) to make up for their middle-of-the-pack Points in the Paint.
Cleveland does not play at a very quick pace, which is just one more reason why we shouldn’t expect them to be near the top in Free Throws Attempted per game. In fact, the Cavs rank 23rd in the league in pace (possessions per game).
Given that the Cavs are 27th in Points in the Paint, 23rd in pace, 11th in 3-point shots attempted, and 6th in “Points Out of the Paint,” I would say that they should be happy to rank 16th in FTA per game, and have a virtually even Free Throw Differential.
My suspicion is that most teams that rank anywhere near that low in Points in the Paint and pace, while ranking that high in Points Out of the Paint and 3-pointers attempted, probably are not as high on the FTA list and suffer a worse Free Throw Differential.
I think it’s safe to say the Cavs aren’t getting killed by the refs.
March 18th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Maria,
I’m not sure what you’re getting at… I’m pretty sure I made a solid argument that agrees with you: The Lakers are NOT ref favorites, by any means.
I disagree with you that the Lakers are one of the better teams at getting into the paint — for the time being (though they’re not terrible, either). The numbers show that the Lakers are only 18th in the NBA in Points in the Paint. (Note that all that could change when Bynum and Gasol are both healthy, potentially putting the Lakers near the top of the league in Points in the Paint.)
However, the Lakers pace clearly compensates for their middle-of-the-pack Points in the Paint. So, again, I think the number of free throws they receive is COMPLETELY reasonable, and in NO WAY the result of ref favoritism.
By the way, I completely agree with you regarding Kobe. I know that LeBron does absorb some contact that doesn’t get called, because he’s so strong that he can sometimes power through it and it’s not as noticeable. However, I maintain that LeBron doesn’t absorb nearly as much uncalled contact in the paint as Kobe does. In fact, I have never seen a player of Kobe’s caliber that absorbs as much contact as he does without getting a foul call.
So, I think I pretty much agree with you. Perhaps we see things a bit differently in terms of the reasons, but the end conclusion is the same, and it’s very clear: The Lakers do NOT have an advantage in foul calls, and are NOT the ref favorites.
And like Ed mentioned, and I agree, the officiating is in a pretty bad state in the NBA. Something’s gotta give.
March 19th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Wow, great stuff Josh! Welcome to MVN. I look forward to reading more from you.
March 20th, 2008 at 5:25 am
Another great piece of writing that I can refer Laker Haters to, keep them coming, I’m glad your work will be shown to everyone. You should have an extra link to your site. I still think the referees suck and they jack up every NBA game, not just the Lakers but everyone.
March 20th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Thanks, Jon. And thanks, Brittney.
Truth is, I half suspected to find that Matt was right when I looked this up (I decided to write the article before I started my research). As a Lakers fan, I was pleased to see that my subjective sense that the Lakers don’t get any more love from the refs than anyone else was, in fact, not just my subjective wishful thinking and bias towards my team.
I guess we all agree on one thing: the officiating in the NBA is terrible, and something must be done to fix it.
I was pleased to note that the NBA is considering expanding the late-game replay. It’s just a little bit — only to determine when a shot is a 2- or 3-pointer, and only at the end of games — but while it’s only a small step, it is at least a step. Let’s hope for more.
March 25th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Hi, Josh.
1) IMO, there are several problems with trying to use simple “game stats” - as you’ve try to do, in this instance - to prove a point about a perception which you hold regarding the NBA.
For example … ‘Points in the Paint’ is a meaningless “game stat” - relatively speaking - since it fails to differentiate amongst:
i) uncontested drives/layups/dunks to the basket in transition;
ii) contested drives/layups/dunks to the basket in transition;
iii) uncontested drives/layups/dunks to the basket in the half-court;
iv) contested drives/layups/dunks to the basket in the half-court;
v) back-to-the-basket moves in the Low (or Mid) Post that result in uncontested shots in the Lane;
vi) back-to-the-basket moves in the Low (or Mid) Post that result in contested shots in the Lane;
vii) uncontested Pull-up Jump-shots/Finger Rolls/Running Hooks/Tear-drops/etc. in the Lane, in transition;
viii) contested Pull-up Jump-shots/Finger Rolls/Running Hooks/Tear-drops/etc. in the Lane, in transition;
ix) uncontested Pull-up Jump-shots/Finger Rolls/Running Hooks/Tear-drops/etc. in the Lane, in the half-court;
x) contested Pull-up Jump-shots/Finger Rolls/Running Hooks/Tear-drops/etc. in the Lane, in the half-court.
Without such differentiation it is difficult (nay, impossible) to distinguish between the styles of play used by Golden State, Phoenix, Dallas, Utah, New Orleans, Houston, Denver, Portland the LA Lakers, categorized by “Offensive Tendencies”.
2) “Game stats” do not capture properly “when” something (specific) of significance happens during an NBA game.
e.g. If Team A wins the ‘FTA’s Battle’ but has a Star player who is unwilling to drive into the teeth of the defense with the game on the line, during a key possession … around which momemtum is changed … and, possibly, get fouled … then having a Positive ‘FTA Differential/game’ is of little consequence for Team A, in that specific game, during which this ploy might have proved to be THE difference between Winning & Losing.
Examining properly the case for “preferential treatment by officials” towards certain teams/players needs to be done in a different way than what’s been tried to this point, i.e. without “action” specificity.
e.g. When a certain player does “this” move, in “this” way, vs “this” type of defender … depending on the team he belongs to … Is he more or less likely to get the Foul Call coming his way?
Otherwise … what your left with are ‘general’ perceptions that have little relevance to Winning & Losing NBA games.
Just My Two Cents :-)
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