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NBA lottery pick preview

The Bulls were fortunate to win the NBA draft lottery, as they had only a 1.7% chance of winning it; just another absurd chapter in the NBA under David Stern. It amazes me how consistently teams with the best chance of winning the lottery never win it. Since its inception, only two teams with the worst overall record have gotten the first pick. I used the ESPN draft simulator, and had to click on it 58 times before the Bulls wound up with the first pick.

The two best players available are Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, and after that it gets a little dicey as there are many different opinions on who gets drafted next. Here’s a quick snap-shot as to how things might go on draft day.

1. Chicago Bulls Michael Beasley PF 6′10 240 Kansas State

The Bulls are in need of a heart transplant after falling from grace last year. Although many, including myself, feel that Derrick Rose is the best player in the draft, and from Chicago, I expect the Bulls to take Michael Beasley for a number of reasons.

Numero uno is that the Bulls have had a very difficult time putting points on the board, especially from down low. Michael Beasley is a phenomenal scorer who can even step out and hit the three. This draft eerily reminds me of the 1994 draft when the choice was Glenn Robinson or Jason Kidd.

2. Miami Heat Derrick Rose PG 6′3 200 Memphis

I laughed when Pat Riley suggested that he might trade the pick. Overall, with Miami having the worst record in the league, I would have been terminal if Pat Riley didn’t secure one of the first two. If there’s one person Stern doesn’t like to go up against its Pat Riley.

Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade will form an extremely tough back-court. The moment he’s drafted he will be in Dwyane’s and your Fave 5, sorry Chuck.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves OJ Mayo SG 6′4 210 USC

The Wolves cannot afford to make a mistake in this draft, so they need to take the guy least likely to flop. OJ Mayo has been ready for the NBA since he was 16, and can step in and contribute. I see OJ as a better shooter in the NBA then a dunker. Overall, he has a skill set that should transfer nicely. He won’t be the mega-star that was predicted for him coming out of high school, but could be a Michael Redd type.

4. Seattle Supersonics Brook Lopez C 7′0 260 Stanford

The Seattle Supersonics need a presence down low and although they have selected centers in three out of the last four drafts (Saer Sene 2006, Johan Petro 2005, and Robert Swift 2004), I see them continuing that trend. Some have suggested they draft a point guard, but I like the play of Earl Watson starting with Luke Ridnour coming off the bench. With 7 footer Brook Lopez on the board that should be their choice.

5. Memphis Grizzlies Deandre Jordan C 7′0 250 Texas A&M

After trading Pau Gasol the Grizzlies find themselves in need of a young center that can develop with the young nucleus they have. Deandre Jordan of Texas A&M has all of the tools of an NBA center, but is probably a couple of years away from contributing. They have the luxury of sitting him behind Darko while he develops and see if Darko was worth the free agent investment. A team like Memphis will never be able to land a franchise center through free agency or trade, so this is a risk, but one with a strong reward if Jordan pans out.

6. New York Knicks Russell Westbrook PG 6′3 190 UCLA

The New York papers are saying that Danilo Gallinari from Italy is the pick, but I’m going to pass on him because I have never seen him play. The pick for the Knicks is a sleeper, Russell Westbrook from UCLA. Westbrook is flat out a sensational basketball player. He wasn’t highly recruited, so many will doubt this pick, but having watched him play about 30 times in the last two years, I can honestly say. He was the best player on UCLA’s team the last two years.

He is also tailor made for Mike D’Antoni’s offense and played the point for UCLA when Darren Collison was hurt, and ran the team smoothly. He is a very good defender and a gazelle in the open court.

7. Los Angeles Clippers Jerryd Bayless PG 6′3 185 Arizona

Due to emergence of Chris Paul and Deron Williams, the point guard position is clearly en vogue in the NBA, with Shaun Livingston still recuperating from knee surgery look for the Clipper to add lightning quick point Jerryd Bayless from Arizona. Bayless is a shoot first point guard that can get by most players with two or three dribbles. Although he needs to improve his ability to run a team, he should provide an up-tempo approach on the offensive side of the ball for the Clips.

8. Milwaukee Bucks Eric Gordon SG 6′4 220 Indiana

The Bucks will probably go with the best player available at this point, and Eric Gordon should fill in nicely. He’s a great shooter and has an NBA body, but much like OJ Mayo, he’s an inch or two shy of what most NBA GM’s want from their shooting guard height wise. Both Mayo and Gordon are excellent shooters, and should be able nullify the height issue.

9. Charlotte Bobcats Javale McGee C 7′0 250 Nevada

I think Michael Jordan understands pedigree and that’s what you get by drafting this young man. Both his parents were professional basketball players. You may not know his dad, George Montgomery, but he was a second round pick of Portland after starring at the University of Illinois. His mom Pamela McGee was an All America at USC, and along with her twin sister Paula, dominated women’s basketball during their time.

McGee didn’t play a lot in his freshmen year as he played behind Nick Fazekas, but he is 7 feet and 240 pounds and loaded with potential. With Emeka Okafor turning down the Hornets extension offer last summer, this provides some insurance as well.

10. New Jersey Nets Anthony Randolph SF 6′10 210 LSU

The Nets are looking for athleticism, and LSU forward Anthony Randolph has been moving up the boards quickly. Randolph is a very skilled player, but it’s unsure where he will play in the pros. He has the height of a four (6’10), but at 210 pounds is too light to pound down low. His ability to handle the ball is extraordinary for a player his age and size, so his upside makes him a good pick here.

11. Indiana Pacers Kevin Love PF 6′9 260 UCLA

The Pacers are looking to play an up-tempo game and would clearly benefit from having the rebounding and outlet passes that Kevin Love brings to the table. I’m sure that Larry Bird could work with Kevin on some of the finer points of the game, thus making this a perfect match.

12. Sacramento Kings DJ Augustin PG 5′11 175 Texas

If DJ Augustin were 3 inches taller he would be a top 5 pick. Overall he can run an offense, get to the hoop and shot 38% from three point land. He is a complete player and should provide a nice upgrade over Anthony Johnson and Beno Udrih.

13. Portland Trailblazers Chase Budinger SG 6′6 215 Arizona

The Trailblazers are completely loaded as Greg Oden returns from his knee injury. They could go in a myriad of directions with this pick, and were really hoping that hometown boy Kevin Love was still available. Instead they should select Chase Budinger from Arizona as their designated three point bomber. Chase can not only shoot the lights out, but is an NBA ready athlete that could be in the rotation in year one.

14. Golden State Warriors Donte Green SF 6′10 225 Syracuse

Suffice to say they will take an extremely athletic player, which leads me to believe that Donte Green will be their pick. As a freshman, he put up 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and 1.3 steals. Many people feel that the best part of his game will be shown at the next level.

This is my early take on the draft, there are many very good players not listed; the most notable being Joe Alexander, Danilo Gallinari and Nicolas Batum. In between now and draft day I’m hoping to watch some of the foreigners, so I can include them in my next mock, but refuse to rely on youtube footage to make a decision.

I also have some solid players that might move up based on personal work-outs and camps. They are Joey Dorsey of Memphis, Jason Thompson of Rider and my super sleeper Lester Hudson of UT-Martin.

Also, certain players will drop after their heights and weights are taken. If Brook Lopez measures 6′9 and DJ Augustin measures 5′9 look for them to drop.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 21st, 2008 at 10:30 am and is filed under Police, Valdosta Daily Times, Georgia, Brian Cook, Andrei Kirilinko, DJ Mbenga, Rony Turiaf, Lee Riley, Maurice Lucas, Wes Unseld, Rick Mahorn, Amare Stoudamire, Pacific, Portland, Jerry Buss, Chris Mihm, Charles Oakley, Oden, Kings, Greece, NBDL, Elton Brown, ed ziti, The Winner Within, Church, Dallas, New Orleans, Steve Mason, Stu Lantz, Mavericks, free throws, Shaun Powell, Josh Tucker, referees, fouls, Aaron Jay Sapiro, Javaris Crittenton, Willis Reed, Maurice Evans, Hornets, Bob Nightengale, Bets, Betting, Jordan Farmar, Don Marbury, Vladimir Radmanovic, line, Colorado, Gambling, Larry Bird, Sacramento, Knicks, Smush Parker, Leandro Barbosa, Larry Brown, NCAA, Andrew Bynum, Grant Hill, Pau Gasol, New York, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, Eddy Curry, Isiah Thomas, Rockies, Mike Dunleavy, Indiana Pacers, Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs, Luke Walton, Lamar Odom, Rick Adelman, Reggie Theus, Pat Riley, DJ Strawberry, Sasha Vujacic, Lakers, Tim Donaghy, Coby Karl, Trevor Ariza, Mitch Kupchak, Jackie Butler, Ira Newble, Baron Davis, Don Nelson, Jerry Sloan, Kwame Brown, Avery Johnson, Devean George, St Johns, Derek Fisher, Shawn Marion, Raja Bell, Los Angeles Lakers. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.