MVN - Most Valuable Network

A look back at my season preview

Before the season began, I made a preview that was compiled with others from around the blogosphere at CelticsBlog.com. Now I’m going back and looking at how my predictions panned out.

Thanks to the predictability of the Spurs, I actually sound pretty smart right now. I said they would finish with a record of 57-25, and right now they are 53-24. I think they will finish the season 56-26, so I actually came pretty close.

Looking at the preview, the two weaknesses I pointed out, age and injury risks, also came true. Age has seemingly caught up with the Spurs at times, with opponents looking fresher and quicker. This is especially true for Robert “Where’s my cane?” Horry, who has not done much this year. The injuries, however, are what really strike me as interesting. While the Big Three avoided the major injuries that I feared, all three dealt with some ailment throughout the year, which the Spurs haven’t had in the past. Even when Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili were “healthy” at times, they were really less than 100% and it showed. More than the age factor, I think these nagging injuries led to the Spurs struggles because they haven’t had the same consistency as in past years, and players like Michael Finley played more minutes than they should have.

The one area I really failed was with my championship predictions. Like many others around the Internet, I thought Chicago would contend for a championship. Oops. I also didn’t give Boston enough credit, saying that the champion would come from San Antonio, Dallas or Phoenix. If I rewrote that today, I would say the champion would come from one of Detroit, Boston and seemingly any team out West.

All in all, I feel pretty good about my prediction. Mostly I was helped by the reliability of the Spurs. Even in a supposedly down year, they are going to come close to my predicted record of 57-25, which is a joy for Spurs fans to know. Even in the Spurs down year, they are pretty darn good.

Why Bowen didn’t deserve the suspension

I expect the majority of readers to disagree with this post, and I expect a good portion of the comments to tell me how stupid I am, at least in some form.

That’s fine.

I am writing this because something had to be said. I am tired of listening to people blow everything Bruce Bowen does out of proportion. This latest incident with Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets is a great example. In a physical game between division rivals, things got a little heated, and Bowen and Paul had an altercation. Immediately after the game, all the talk was about how Bowen kneed Paul in the chest to knock him down, adding further proof to the argument of Bowen as a dirty player. Here is the video that circulated on the Internet.

From this video angle, it looks pretty obvious that Bowen kneed Paul back to the ground. When I saw the video, I was disappointed with Bowen. But I kept hearing talk of a different angle that showed Paul hitting Bowen in the nether regions and Bowen never making contact with Paul. Here is that video.

After watching that video dozens of times, here is what I see.

When Paul is on the floor and Bowen is straddling him, Paul seems to hit him once on the inner thigh while going for the ball. I don’t think this was intentional by any means, just part of the game. Then Paul actually makes contact with Bowen’s crotch while going for the ball. Once again, I don’t think it was intentional by any means, but Bowen does get hit by Paul’s hand. Then Bowen reacts like any normal male by flinching his legs and trying to clear away whatever or whoever hit him. He definitely didn’t make any contact with Paul here. Then after the whistle is blown, Bowen does move his leg towards Paul, but I think the second video shows that there was either no contact or minimal contact at most. Paul then flops to the ground as if kicked hard.

Of course, both players acted like they never touched each other, which was annoying and unnecessary, but I find Paul’s reaction interesting. If I had just been kicked in the chest while on the ground, I would have been furious and probably acted angry. Paul put his hands behind his back and looks around with big eyes like he was trying to play innocent. Why didn’t he act upset? I’m not sure if this means anything, I just thought it was an interesting reaction.

I also can’t help but wonder why Bowen was suspended for this incident. If he would have been suspended for anything, it should have been when he kicked Ray Allen in the back. That was an obvious one from any angle and it also came after the whistle. This incident doesn’t have an angle that shows conclusively that Bowen kicked Paul. What makes this one worse than the other? The only solution I can think of is backlash from fans and media who have been after Bowen for years. Stu Jackson and the rest of the league officials knew that if they didn’t suspend Bowen, various markets (cough::Phoenix, Dallas::cough) would complain loudly. It would have been bad publicity for the NBA, and that’s the last thing David Stern wants right now.

It’s a shame that Bowen’s streak of 500 consecutive starts has to end this way. He plays harder than most players in the NBA, always facing the other teams best player. To start 500 games in a row at his age is amazing. His is also a great story. He was not as physically gifted or as naturally talent as others, but he out-worked his competition. The reason he is so good at defense, Kobe has said that Bowen defends him better than anybody else, is his tenacity and focus to his job. Does Bowen toe the line between hounding defense and dirty play? Yes. And at times, like the play with Ray Allen, he crosses that line. Mostly he just plays hard defense, not allowing players to stay within their comfort zones. He is the type of player that you hate to play against but love to have on your team, and that’s important to remember.

I don’t expect many people, if any, to all of a sudden say, ‘Yeah David, you’re right. I’ve been wrong about Bowen all along.’ Most people already have their mind made up. However, before going on a rant about how dirty this play was, look at both videos and consider what happened. Think about if Bowen was on your favorite team’s roster. I would almost guarantee that you would love the guy.

Denver ends Spurs win streak

The Spurs did not start a tough five-game stretch well, losing to the Denver Nuggets 109-96.

San Antonio actually held an eight point lead at halftime and were playing okay basketball, but was outscored 34-19 in the third quarter and 29-23 in the fourth quarter. Things started to fall apart in the third quarter when Pop couldn’t find a lineup that worked well together. He tried shuffling different players around, but nobody could score. Denver pushed the lead to 15 early in the fourth quarter and San Antonio never could fight its way back into the game.

My biggest concern with the Spurs showing was their lack of effort in the second half. One play sticks out in my mind that displays this. In the fourth quarter, a Denver guard took a three, which bounced high off the rim. Four Spurs players passively went for the rebound, while Eduardo Najera came running in from outside the 3-point line to tap the ball away for an offensive rebound. Four Spurs and not one boxed out or went high for the rebound. At this point in the fourth quarter, San Antonio was not completely out of the game, but afterwards I knew that there was no way they would win.

Two Spurs showed up to play: Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili. Duncan had 23 points on 8-of-11 shooting, nine rebounds and four blocks. Ginobili had 24 points on 9-of-17 shooting. However, neither did much in the second half. Duncan had 14 points at halftime and Ginobili had 17.

The Nuggets deserve credit for their defense. Outside of Marcus Camby, the Nuggets are not known for their defense, but they defended well. In the third quarter they used a zone defense to frustrate the Spurs. It didn’t help that Michael Finley was 2-of-8, but I digress. Denver played aggressive defense, not allowing Tony Parker (4 points, 2-of-7) easy penetration. I don’t think Denver can play this kind of defense consistently, but they did a good job on Friday. San Antonio also hurt themselves with senseless turnovers. They had 16 on the night, five from Parker. There were too many telegraphed passes picked off and too many dumb mistakes.

Joey: Many different players struggled throughout the game, but Tony Parker was maybe the worst. He seemed afraid to attack the basket knowing that Marcus Camby was inside. He finished with four points, six assists and five turnovers.

Matt Bonner, ejections and more

Well, the Spurs 108-97 victory against the Indiana Pacers was a little strange. Matt Bonner played 25 minutes, actually entering the game in the first quarter. Pop was ejected in the second quarter. Tim Duncan had one of his worst offensive games ever, scoring six points on 3-of-11 shooting.

There was a purpose to all this madness. Over the next 24 days, the Spurs play 14 games, of which nine are against teams with winning records. Eight of them are on the road. Against the Pacers, who have the scary lineup of Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, Jeff Foster, Danny Granger and Travis Diener, the Spurs were able to rest key players. Nobody played more than 30 minutes, and eight different players played more than 20. Pop even decided to limit his time, arguing with a ref until ejection. It was like Pop did not care about the game. I don’t think he would have minded if the team lost. Seriously.

This season, more than ever, Pop has thrown strange lineups on the court, partly because of injuries, but partly because that’s who he is. Pop doesn’t stress about wins or losses in January or December, and it’s hard to blame him after the Spurs struggled throughout both months and still have the best record in the West. With Matt Bonner playing in the first quarter in a long time, it looked like a midseason game for Pop. I can’t blame him, considering that the next four games are against conference rivals.

Even with Duncan struggling from the field, the Spurs had no trouble with the Pacers, using runs of 14-4 and 12-5 in the third quarter to break it open. Manu Ginobili was the star against Indiana, scoring 28 points on 10-of-13 shooting, and Tony Parker added 19 on 6-of-8 shooting. In Bonner’s 25 minutes, he had 15 points and four rebounds, but also five fouls. Earlier in the season, it looked like Bonner would earn consistent minutes, but Pop has soured on his play. With Duncan, Fabricio Oberto, Kurt Thomas and Robert Horry ahead of him, I don’t expect Bonner to play much tonight against the Denver Nuggets or against other playoff teams.

Game Ball: Ginobili played efficient basketball, attacking the basket for his 28 points. While his perimeter game fueled his recent stretch of high-scoring games, this one came from driving to the basket.