MVN - Most Valuable Network

Back from the Dead

Yeah, yeah - its been way too long. Yes, I burned out. I almost made it through the season, but I’ll admit it - once the thrill of being unexpectedly in the playoff hunt drained away, my passion for blogging waned as well. Other things in life have come along that took time away that I had previously used for writing here, but we’ve all got that excuse. So, anyway, let’s catch up on a few things, shall we?

1) Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden The Blazers can trade out of the draft and will be pretty much assured of having the most impactful class of rookies joining a team for next season. There is no making up for a lost season, but the work young Gregory has put in during his “intern” season with the Blazers will have him more prepared for his first full-time NBA gig than he would have been for last year. And with Joel Pryzbilla coming off a strong season as the team’s starting Center, the Blazers are suddenly looking like they’ve got great depth at a key position.

Speaking of depth, the other problem for the Blazers last year was at Shooting Guard, where Brandon Roy was the only legitimate 2 on the squad (Martell isn’t there yet, Jack is OK as a combo guard but not an SG). Listening to the talking heads and stuff, it seems pretty clear that the season Rudy has had in Europe this year would have vaulted him into the top 10 of this year’s draft. Explosive 6′5″ shooting guards playing in the highest level of basketball outside the NBA have a way of doing that. And, if all goes according to plan, Rudy will also be coming to the Blazers. More on Rudy and how he fits in just a second.

2) No lottery magic this year. Boy, would it have been SWEET to score Derrick Rose this year. Now the debate rages on for the folks that have to debate what the Blazers should do even though Kevin Pritchard has yet to cause any Blazer fans to have any doubt the right thing will get done… I’m not here to give a take on what they should do with pick #13. If we keep it and use it, I’m pretty sure it’ll be because KP thinks he’s going to like what he has to choose from. And if he trades it? I’m pretty sure that even if I don’t immediately like the return (like with the Stat-Bo trade from last year’s draft day) it will end up looking pretty good. So, on this one, I’ll leave it in the capable hands of our boy-wonder GM.

3) The Point Guard Situation I know that I lobbied that Jarrett Jack deserved another year to grow with this team. I didn’t completely hate how he played last year, but can understand why on a team that almost uniformly exceeded expectations in every way why Jack ended up being the goat amongst a majority of the fans. He didn’t prove a thing, and while I like Jack, I’m not so sentimental as to think he merits another shot. So, what started as a four-option solution last year (Blake/Jack/Sergio/TBD) has been narrowed down to three (Blake/Sergio/TBD) in the search for the Blazers’ “Championship Point Guard.”

I actually think Sergio failed his test last year, too. While Jack is demonized, Sergio is given a pass for not getting on the floor enough. Personally, I don’t think its a good sign that Sergio couldn’t meet Nate MacMillan’s expectations enough to win time from Jack. Its natural for Sergio fans to ascribe this to some kind of man-crush between Mac-10 and Jack, but I’m an Occam’s Razor kind of guy - I don’t think Sergio got the time because he didn’t play well enough to earn the time. I also don’t think Sergio has shown any indication whatsoever that he would be an effective Point Guard playing off the ball next to Brandon Roy, who isn’t the answer to the PG solution but even while playing SG will handle the ball a significant part of the time (and probably most of the time coming down the stretch). Again, more on this later.

Here’s what I think are the key attributes for the PG the Blazers need to be looking for, in order of priority for me:
1) Strong Defender - to get out of the Western Conference, we’re gonna have to be able to deal with Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Baron Davis, etc. A lock-down defender is a must.
2) Good Shooter - With Roy, Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge, there are going to be lots of double teams going away from the PG and SF. We’ve got the shooters at SF in Martell Webster, James Jones, and Travis Outlaw (and Rudy too, when we’re in three-guard lineups). Blake was admirable, but I want better. If this guy is going to be on the floor with the “Last Five Minute” lineup (and I’ll want his defense out there), he has to be effective playing off the ball as a shooter on offense cause its going to be Roy running the show.
3) Size - I generally want PGs to be 6′3″ or taller, but not at the expense of being able to keep up with Paul and Williams, the benchmarks by which our guy will be measured. Maybe its because Terry Porter was the man for this team when I was a kid, but this is my list.
4) Floor General - Our PG needs to be able to play the PG position with skill, but I really don’t think we need a Steve Nash/Chris Paul level floor general to reach our peak. It would be nice, but again - if Roy is handling the ball 30 or 40% of the time, its kind of a waste to sacrifice defense, shooting, or size to maximize this.

So, who do I like? I like Blake long-term as a depth guy - hopefully he likes it enough in Portland to stay with the team and ease into a Steve Kerr-type depth role. He played great off the ball last year with Roy, can run the offense, and gives great effort on D.

OK, so Blake is the good long-term backup, what about the starter? I’ve already ticked Jack and Sergio off my list. Who else is there? Jose Calderon is one option that’s been talked about regularly around here - the rumor is that KP went after him hard at the trade deadline, and he seems to fill most of my requirements except #1.

Derrick Rose? Obviously.

My sleeper pick isn’t much of a sleeper anymore, but I love UCLA’s Russell Westbrook for this role. I’m not dying to draft another kid and wait on a project, but he’s 6′3″, he played solid at PG while Collison was out to start the season, played solid at SG when Collison came back, ended up leading UCLA in assists per game despite playing 2/3 of the season at SG, and looks like he’s got the chops to be a plus defender in the NBA.

I just don’t see many other options yet at PG in this draft. Eric Gordon is more combo than PG, and while I just downplayed the PG part above this guy needs to be at least at or above average to take the pressure off Roy.

Jerryd Bayless I didn’t see enough of this year, but it doesn’t look like he’s falling to us. DJ Augustin and Ty Lawson don’t have the size.

I’m not a huge fan of any other guards already in the NBA. Kirk Hinrich might have just become available, but I’m just not a huge fan of his game. Nobody else springs to mind. Any suggestions are welcome in the comments.

Oh, and just remembered - Petteri Koponen, anyone? He’d be a project, but as they say in the business - the most important ability for players is “availability,” and we own the rights to Petteri.

Ultimately, next year isn’t a Championship Contending Season for the Blazers, so I don’t think this situation needs to be resolved this offseason. As I’ve said a million times here, I’m a patient man. KP isn’t though, so my guess is that this is at the top of his to-do list.

Whew, this went on longer than I expected.

4) Brandon Roy So, if PG is such a big dilemma, and we’ve got a top SG prospect hopefully coming this year in Rudy, why did I neglect to include Brandon in the list of PG solutions?

In short, I have no interest in seeing Roy burn energy playing defense on NBA PGs. It’s natural to want to maximize what you have when you’ve got a superstar whose unique talent actually expands beyond the position they’re slated to play. But with Roy, we should just be glad we’ve got a potential top 5 SG who is already flourishing after his 2nd season, and not try to overdo it. The best SGs in this league play a huge role for their teams that go beyond traditional SG stuff - Wade, Kobe, LeBron (who plays the 3 but still), Joe Johnson, T-Mac, and more that I’m sure I’m forgetting. Those guys don’t just score, they create baskets for everyone by being the focal point of the offense and, yes, basically running the point. Contrast these guys to players like Vince Carter, Ray Allen, Corey Maggette - guys who are great SGs, but can’t play that expanded role the first group does. That first group is the SG+s, while the second group are just SGs. Roy is an SG+.

But the SG+s can’t be in that mode the entire time - teams have to change it up or the defense’s job gets easier. This is why Roy needs that unique PG who can be effective next to Roy whether he’s in SG or SG+ mode.

OK - that’s it for now. Sorry for the delay - I’m going to try to be a little better now as we move forward. I never did put a good recap on the season which I really meant to do, but maybe at some point I’ll get that done. Needless to say, I was thrilled. They missed my prediction of 38 wins by 3 - the right way.

It is a GREAT time to be a Blazer fan people. Make no mistake - no writing doesn’t mean I’m down on the team or the season. Just short on bandwidth.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 21st, 2008 at 10:08 pm and is filed under Martell Webster, The Inferno, Kevin Pritchard, Steve Blake, Jarrett Jack, Joel Pryzbilla, Oden Injury, 2008 NBA Draft, Sergio Rodriguez, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Portland Trailblazers, Trade Rumors, Brandon Roy, James Jones, Blazers History, Petteri Koponen, Rudy Fernandez, Trail Blazers. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.