Less then 24 hours after Baron Davis opted out of the final year of his contract with the Warriors, the LA Times is reporting that he has signed a 5-year deal with the LA Clippers for $65 million.

This ends one of the most exciting (though short) eras in Warrior’s basketball history, in essence ripping the heart out of a team that won 48 games last season. It seems that Baron was more affronted by Nellie’s treatment of him and the offers Mullin extended than most realized or perhaps wanted to realize.

What makes this so bad is that his contract is just not that big. Over $14 mil per year would have been excessive but $13 million is in an acceptable range. The five years seems a bit long but for it to benefit the Dubs he really needs to be effective for only three seasons (the last two he becomes a trade chip as an expiring contract) and that is not out of the realm of possibility.

This move brings up first a question and then the bitter rumors that inevitably spread after events like this. The question is, would Baron have taken the same deal to stay in Oakland or was he so hurt/interested in a title that he would have asked more from Mullin? And as soon at the news broke unsavory grumblings began about collusion between Baron and the Clippers. There is probably no truth to these rumors but many fans will still cling to them.

As for the Warriors themselves the future very suddenly became now. If the rumors are true, Brand will be resigning with LA. Corey Maggette could be a catch if the Dubs act quickly (read: sign him out of spite) but his lack of defense could be a small issue.

After that however the free agent class grows very thin. There are a number of nice restricted free agents (Iguodala, Josh Smith, Okafor, Deng) but it remains to be seen if the Warriors can offer enough to not be matched and if any of them are worth the money they would demand.

At the moment the Warriors have eight players guaranteed to be under cap hold or contract as well as the remnants of Foyle’s contract. They could resign Azubuike (likely), Pietrus (very unlikely) or Matt Barnes (though Nellie said that he won’t return) but none of those would help that much. This will leave the team with a ton of cap room but that is little consultation to the fans.

The new questions become, “can Monta run the point?” and if he can’t, who can Mullin get to do it? It’s too soon to start bad mouthing Baron’s shooting and attitude, maybe in a few days but not now.

Mullin now will also need to ramp up his attempts to resign Monta and Andris. Losing Baron and one of them would basically sink this franchise entirely for the next year. The roster, which will be filled out in some way, is now supremely young and untested but presents fans with a great unknown.

We’ll have to see what unfolds on all these fronts but the team that comes out of the tunnel opening night will surly bear little resemblance to the one that did one year ago. We Believe seems very long ago as fans are now left only with the choice of whether to direct their acrimony at Baron himself or at the management that could not keep him in Oakland.

There is little solace in that choice, but it is really all that’s left.

    Warrior fans are now in a new and strange place. Despite repeated pledges to stay in Oakland next season, guard Baron Davis opted out of the final year of his contract according to reports. This means that he will forgo $17.8 million next season in hopes of securing a longer term deal.

    As fans we’re left to wonder, why? Was it the late season benching? Was it the lack of what he considered a “respectful” contract offer? Until he speaks we won’t know.

    This puts the Dubs management in a situation that can at best be described as difficult. They can give him a pile of money and kill their cap for the next few seasons. They can look for sign-and-trades. Or they can renounce his rights, which takes his cap hold (around $24 million) off the cap but lose the ability to make a sign-and-trade.

    The market however further complicates this situation. Only three teams (LA Clippers, Philly and Memphis) have the cap space to make Baron as rich a man as he would like to be. Other than that, teams would have to sign him to the mid-level exception and pay more later. Furthermore Philly and the Clippers would have to renounce key players to generate that kind of cap space.

    Baron, Elton Brand, Corey Maggette and Gilbert Arenas are the top free agents out there, though Arenas reportedly has a $100 million-offer on the table at the moment.

    At the moment the Warriors still hold a lot of the power. Unless the Clippers do something drastic fro Baron, his avenues to a big payday still rely heavily on Mullin. In theory renouncing his rights would give the Warriors an even more decidedly upper hand since they would be one of very few teams that could give him real money (by renouncing they should be about $19 under the cap). This could however backfire if the impetus behind this move is respect more than money.

    Many media members are attributing this opt out to Baron feeling a lack of love from the team and renouncing his rights would probably only make that worse. For the team however it is the smart choice.

    Right now this team is not built to contend and unless they get Brand, likely won’t contend for a few seasons. By then Baron will be older, in theory creakier and will probably still be shooting a ton of low percentage shots.

    Baron rescued this team from the doldrums of the league and gave fans so much joy. Unfortunately it was bad contracts that made the Dubs a laughingstock in the first place and a new batch of them could likely send the team back there.

    Management needs to look and see if the rift with Davis can be repaired, if not, they need to keep all options open. It pains me to say this but as of now the shrewd move is to let Baron test the market and try to get him back or trade him if he can’t find greener pastures.

    It’s not the popular move, but as of now it’s the right one.

Anthony Randolph: He either is a top five talent who fell because of bust potential or simply a young man who is far from a sure thing. Which of those is reality is less than clear. The first thing that stands out about him it his build. He is between 6’10” and 6’11” but weighs just 197 pounds. That means he is in fact skinnier than Brandan Wright. In college Randolph was stuck on an awful LSU team and therefore threw up a lot of shots, often regardless of quality. This goes part of the way to explaining his 46-percent shooting along with the fact that he has trouble finishing with contact (perhaps related to that muscle thing). His frame is also not terribly large so adding bulk will be somewhat difficult. Randolph’s defense and post work are also questionable since he is just so damn thin.

Those problems however are balanced by the freakish level of athleticism Randolph possesses. He has the handle and size to play both forward positions, can hit mid-range jumpers and create shots for himself. His ability to reject shots is also a big plus. In his lone season in Baton Rouge, Randolph averaged 2.3 blocks and 8.5 rebounds per game. His long arms give the Warriors the ability to throw out a number of players with the length and speed to attack passing lanes with abandon and frustrate opposing offenses. He is also a player who excels at running the floor and should with the Dub’s free-flowing offense. His biggest appeal however is his potential.

Randolph closely resembles Wright in terms of size, left-handedness and massive need of development. He is years away from contributing meaningfully to this team and is incredibly raw. With the right coaching and development Randolph could become a good pro… maybe. There are very few top players who have build and game like he does.

The most confusing part about this pick is how people are responding to it. Some say that he is a steal at 14 but no one really projects him being that good. It seems like most of the commentators love him as a prospect but haven’t the foggiest how that will translate to the real hardwood.

Randolph is going to be a high risk/(maybe)high reward player and time will tell how this pick works out.

Richard Hendrix: After all the complaints from Warrior fans, Mullin finally made the choice and delivered someone who specializes in rebounding. Hendrix has a build which strongly contrasts Randolph as he weighs in at 250 pounds and is 6’8”. He specializes in rebounding, making him pretty much the only Warrior to do that. He is strong, tough and smart on the court. Though he is short, he is still an solid post player and even showed the ability to hit some mid-range shots last year. He also showed the ability to score fairly well, while playing within his own game (shot nearly 60 percent). An unselfish attitude and nice passing touch are just gravy. In Oakland however Hendrix will be relied upon mostly for his rebounding.

The question that remains for Hendrix is his defense. It’s clear that he won’t be a dominant post scorer and his free throw shooting is below par. His size will also likely mean that Nellie will always play him with four shooters. On defense he will not be good at blocking shots from the weak-side, though he did average 2 rejections per game last season. At 6’8” the key for Hendrix will revolve around if he can be the kind of shorter defender that gets under opponents and uses his strength to move them off the block. If he can become even a mediocre defender he will have a good chance to become a role player for the Warriors.

For Hendrix however, a role player spot will likely be the highest position he can attain. Unlike Randolph, his ceiling is as a nice rebounded and at best a seventh man. There are many players who seem to bounce around as nothing more than specialists so Hendrix could have that kind of future. The fact that he is 21 years old and played three years in college means that he is much more likely than Randolph to make some meaningful contributions next season. 

Since Paul Millsap started killing the Warriors when they played Utah, fans have been clamoring for an equivalent player. In Hendrix and his “Boozer-like” frame, that may be just what they’ve got.

With these two the Dub’s have added some nice pieces for their long term future. Randolph won’t contribute next year but the assertion of Wright, Marco B and perhaps Kosta Perovic into the lineup could make up for that. In two weeks fans will get a chance to see a number of these players as most are expected to participate in the Warrior’s summer league.

Russell Westbrook: This supremely athletic combo-guard could add another element to the Dub’s backcourt with his defensive intensity and comfort in transition. The problem is that Westbrook is a ‘tweener in so many ways that his game just might not work in the NBA.

Westbrook is between 6’3” and 6’4” but has a wingspan near 6’8” which makes him a more formidable perimeter defender and allows him to play larger than his meager height. He also has quite large hands which help in his specialty: Dunking.

On offense, Westbrook is the kind of player who scores his points in the flow of the game. He struggles creating his own shot and lacks the handles to be an effective slasher. Combine that with his jumper that is pedestrian at best, and you have a player who will not make much of an impact in terms of points.

The area that could save Westbrook is his passing. He does not appear to be a spectacular playmaker but was a point guard in college. At the one position, however, his height problems would be solved and, to some extent, his lack of scoring would be masked.

As for his future on Golden State, a big problem will likely be the future of Monta Ellis. A Westbrook/Ellis back court is deficient in both height and ball-handling. Since Westbrook knows his limits, he would be a nice third guard who comes in for defense and could be developed into something greater down the road.

How he fits: His lack of scoring punch likely means that Warrior’s management will pass on Westbrook unless they absolutely fall in love with his measurable and potential.

Joe Alexander: While his defense is questionable and his game is still developing, Alexander right now has enough tools to be a good fit in Oakland.

On first glance, Alexander possesses great leaping ability and overall athleticism. His lateral quickness is not great however meaning that he will not be a superb perimeter defender. 

He also is not a great ball-handler though he did improve that element of his game last season. With that come a few issues with his ability to create his own shot.

Alexander’s jumper however is a thing of beauty. It lacks a ton of range right now but he has great from mid-range and excels when dropping turnarounds from the post. He also is a good freethrow shooter (80 percent) and has a massive array of dunks that he can employ.

What stands out about Alexander however is his intensity, work ethic and basketball IQ. He sees the floor well, is a good passer and has a good feel for moving without the ball. With his natural gifts and gym rat attitude, Alexander still has a lot of improvement a head of him, especially considering he has only been playing basketball for five yours. As Dubs fans saw with POB, all the talent and skill in the world is nothing without a powerful work ethic to drive it.

How he fits: Very athletic, check. Good Jump shot: check. Great work ethic combined with a high ceiling, double check. Take him if he’s there, enough said.

D.J. Augustin: The hardest part with Augustin is getting over the fact that he stands at just 5’11” and was not exactly a high percentage shooter in college. This guy hit just 43 percent of his shots and took over five 3-pointers per game last year.

On the positive side he is quite quick, plays hard and is an excellent ball handler. He packs a nice array of shots and would be able to run the Dubs offense and maybe spell Baron.

Augustin however is quite streaky and, like most of the Warriors, seems to be content to try to shoot himself out of bad streaks. It also has to be factored in that he would likely be playing alongside Monta Ellis at some point, making a decidedly small and defenseless backcourt.

How he fits: Quite poorly. Hopefully he gets taken before the 14^th pick so perhaps someone else can fall to Golden State.

Nicolas Batum: 6’8” athletic swingmen are usually a hot commodity, but in Batum’s case questions about his intensity have caused him to fall a bit. He still had the talent to be considered the top European in the draft, so there is something there.

This Frenchman is a great finisher and very comfortable in transition. His jumper is not notably good and his rebounding is poor despite his height. Batum could make a lot of progress if he added more muscle since he is now just 214 pounds.

His passing however is excellent and he has an unselfish attitude, both skills that could work well with the other Warriors. On offense however he lacks the one-on-one scoring and driving skills that Nellie will probably want.

The two issues with will decide if Batum makes it on Golden State are his assertiveness and what the Warriors expect out of him. At best right now he looks like he could develop into a good defensive player who facilitates the offense and takes shots and drives when they make themselves available. He will not be a top line player but likely an extremely good role player.

If Batum does not show aggressiveness and willingness to attack the rim, the Warriors will likely bypass him for someone else. The only thing that could counterbalance that would be him showing more willingness to move around more without the ball, something the Dubs lacked for much of last season.

How he fits: Not very well. If he’s there and no one else is, it would be worth the gamble, but Batum should not be Mullin’s first choice.

Donte Greene: A versatile player who is bounding up draft charts, Greene’s game fits perfectly in the Warriors mis-match based offense. He is a good shooter and has the frame to add some muscle. His position is somewhat in flux as he has the height of a power forward but lacks bulk and has the game of a small forward.

At 6’10” he has shown the ability to hit jumpers and score from the perimeter while his back to the basket game is also improving. Last year he also put up good numbers with 7.2 boards, 2 assists and over one block and steal per game.

On the downside, he is neither tough nor much of a defensive player. His biggest flaw however might be what makes him so perfect for the Warriors: shot selection.

Greene took 7.5 threes per game in his only college season and has showed little restraint in taking poor shots. That however seems to be an endearing quality in Oakland, especially with Nelson on the bench.

Though he is a bit of a project, Greene has so much potential that he could be worth the gamble. Tall small forwards who can shoot and potentially could do damage inside are few and far between.

Greene worked out for the Warriors on Friday which could demonstrate real interest or could be a smoke screen.

How he fits: Perhaps too well. Greene would give the Dubs more of what they already have, players who take a lot of mediocre shots. He is however very talented and would be very intriguing in Warrior blue.

Chris Douglas-Roberts: As an NCAA player he was good enough to lead his team to a title game and be in a position to clinch a national championship for his team (which he blew). In the draft he is a smart, unspectacular player who does not look great but seems to get things done on the court.

His ball handling is not superb leading to a sub-par A/T ratio and his rebounding leaves something to be desired for a 6’7” player.  The bigger issue is that he will never be a go-to isolation perimeter scorer which might be a problem with Nellie.

He just has an awkward way of moving around on the court but he is still good at attacking the rim.

Douglas-Roberts scored inside with dunks, very nice floaters and some really creative awkward shots near the basket. His shooting was maligned early in his career but last season he converted a very high percent from beyond the arc. Scouts also have noted that the real reason he could end up on Golden State is his defense. The Dubs could always use more perimeter defenders and Douglas-Roberts can cause fits for guards with his height and long arms (though he lacks bulk and is not very strong).

While not being a very exciting pick, CDR could address some needs and still become a nice role player in the Warrior’s offense. Taking him would be a safe move, not necessarily on that would send fans into a frenzy but one that could pay off well in coming years.

How he fits: Very well.  The Warriors can always use more wings and one that play good D are usually nice to have around.

The biggest key in this draft is for the Warrior’s brass to stay sharp and not become complacent. It is easy for front offices to fall in love with “their guy” and make reaches or let a talented player who is falling on draft night pass them by. It’s likely Mullin is still looking at trade options so the draft could be quite eventful for the Warrior faithful.

While he has the build to be a good power forward and is capable of running the floor, his defense is not good at all and he tends to be the kind of player who does not play within his own games. He does however bring some nice face-up moves and is a decent passer for a big guy.

Beyond that however, the larger question is why he did not utterly dominate in a smaller league against inferior competition. He consistently played against much smaller players and put up very good numbers but not the great numbers a 14th pick should in the Metro Athletic Atlantic Conference.

The jump in talent around him could render Thompson a non-factor but, according to Thomsen, some front office people have been singing Thompson’s praises.

The biggest factor here is for the Warriors to not fall in love with “their guy” and pass on more promising prospects. If someone reaches and a good player falls to 14, Mullin needs to be more than ready to snap him up.

The Pipe Dream

Kevin Love: This may be very moot soon since there are rumors of Love going as high as third but this kid fits nearly perfectly into the Warriors game plan. Love’s specialty if his crisp outlet passing which can ignite a fast break and the Warriors, as anyone will tell you, love to run. More importantly he has to potential to control the boards and allow teammates to leak out on the break.

The Warriors are a bad rebounding team for two main reasons, first, they play Al Harrington at center a lot and second, many of they player on the team simply don’t like rebounding. SJax and Harrington could be dynamite rebounders but lack the fire to bang and jostle with other big men under the boards. Love seems to like fighting for position, has great instincts for rebounding and is a legit 6’9” player.

On offense, Love uses footwork, positioning and a somewhat varied post-repertoire to make up for a lack of quickness. His smooth jump-shot and range that extends to the 3-point line are the factors that will make Nellie drool since he possesses the tools to be a match-up nightmare.

His halfcourt passing is overrated but none the less still solid. This would matter more if the Dubs actually practiced off-ball movement in the half-court, which they don’t.

On the downside, Love is not that fast and is less than dynamite on the defensive end. The biggest question is, will the jump in talent from college to the pros render him average rather than exceptional in his rebounding and physical post play?

How well he fits: A great fit who likely won’t be there when the Dubs make their selection.

The Projects

JaVale McGee: This kid has Patrick O’Bryant build and is as much of a project as POB and Wright. He’s a 7-footer with a 7’6” wing span but his defense is bad and overall he lacks a lot of polish.

What makes this man so draftable, one might ask? He has shown good ball handling away from the basket, and range out to the college 3-point line.

McGee has the potential to cause fits for bigs who guard him, but likely would give it all back on the other end. The Warrior’s do not need another extremely raw big man.

How well he fits: poorly, this team has too many big men who don’t contribute as is.

Marreese Speights: Physically this kid brings a lot of things to the table. At 6’10” with long arms, he still has room to put on weight and gain strength. The problem is that he is not terrible physical at the moment and most of his good points are very contingent on development.

He has a few very good post moves, including a nice hook, but lacks diversity in that area. He can step out for mid-range jumpers but does not do it with much consistency though he has a fluid shooting stroke.

On defense, he is not great in man to man but did block a decent number of shots in college. His rebounding is above average and tends to be better on offense than defense. Speights could be a top player at the four position but the question is, will Mullin want to spend his top pick on a player that will take a fair amount of time to develop. 

How he fits: If the Dubs were rebuilding, Speights would get a long look. Since they’re not he likely won’t be in Oakland next year.

Kosta Koufos: Nicknamed “the Colossus” in the European U-18 championships, Koufos matriculated for one season at Ohio State before entering the draft. At 7’1” he has the size to man the center position but there are some large holes in his games.

Koufos possesses range on a good jump-shot and can score from the post with jumpers, hooks and nifty moves. He tends to rely almost exclusively on his right hand, leading to some awkward contestable shots.

His rebounding is not that special despite his size but he does a good job clogging the lane and making inside shots just a little bit more difficult with his long arms. OSU, however, uses a 2-3 zone exclusively, meaning that his man defense is still in question.

Though his passing was hyped up before college, he showed little interest in setting up teammates last season. He is not tremendously quick but has a decent amount of potential.

How he fits: His lack of quickness makes him an unlikely choice since he will not be useful in transition though his jump-shooting skills could be used well by Nelson. Unless he really looks good in workouts or anyone who fits is snapped up before him, expect the Dubs to go in another direction.

The role players

Darrell Arthur: Fresh off a national championship run at Kansas, Arthur could be the answer to the Warrior’s need of a low post scorer. He is quick and very athletic but also has a variety of turn-around shots and post moves. Add into that soft hands and a high level of comfort in transition and he seems ideal for the Warrior offense. On defense his specialty if using his reach and jumping ability to swat away opponent’s shots, but he is quite competent in guarding his man as well.

His rebounding however is very inconsistent, sometimes he goes after the ball and (with his quickness and good hands) usually gets it, other times he is more passive. His passing is also a question in that he rarely gives up the ball and turned the ball over nearly two times per game last season.

How he fits: His speed fits well with the running game and his skills both facing up and with his back to the basket are something the Dubs have been sorely lacking. He does not have an amazingly high ceiling but could be a good contributor very early.

Robin Lopez: Unlike many of the other Big Men Golden State might take, Lopez does not exactly register as an explosive scorer. He is on the whole a garbage man.

The Stanford product specializes in rebounding, defense and physicality, all things the Warriors need more of. He is often compared to Anderson Varejao, more for his hair than anything else, but their games are somewhat similar.

In essence he would be a second Andris Biedrins, so both of them would never be on the court on the same time, (also making it unlikely he would see the floor with Brandan Wright as well). His hustle and shot blocking ability (over 2 rejections per game in college) should help cover for the gambles which Golden State’s perimeter players often take.

His offense rarely looks smooth so most of his points come from put-backs and off-ball movement. In the end, Lopez is a banger inside who could add another screen setter and defender to complement the Warrior’s array of scorers.

How he fits: The question with Lopez is, “How does Mullin want to build his second unit?” Last year Harrington gave Nelson a different look at center and that dynamic would be taken away with Lopez and Biedrins requiring 40+ minutes per game. His skills do however address some of the warrior’s needs so he becomes an eminently safe pick.

Coming soon, the guards/swingmen…

It’s been widely reported that Baron Davis was ready to opt out of his contract this offseason, leaving the Warriors looking for his replacement. Even here, we’ve reported that it was likely that he would opt out of his contract this offseason, but maybe we were wrong. (more…)

Kelenna Azubuike: The second year swingman had a solid, if inconsistent, season. Early on he was a key rotation member but his minutes dwindled during the middle of the season. As the top players tired down the stretch he became more of a factor but it says something that Nellie didn’t trust him as a contributor for the entire year. He shot decent percentages, showing skill both in penetration and outside shooting. Rebounding, scoring and energetic (if not always effective) defense were what Azubuike brought for his 21.4 minutes per game. Had Nelson given him more consistent minutes and a clearer role, he could have had a much better season. (more…)

The Dubs finished two games out of the playoffs, a deficit that could have been made up by just winning a few of the bevy of pathetic losses they had this year. Defeats at the hands of Indiana, Minnesota, Charlotte, Sacramento and Chicago as well as the 0-6 start were what made the difference between an ok season and one to be proud of. (more…)

No, Adonal Foyle will not be playing center for the Warriors next year, so you can breathe your sigh of relief right now. Unfortunately, and for some inexplicable reason, his original contract figure with the W’s will still count next year. Lucky for Chris Mullin and the organization, the team holds an option for the 2009-2010 season. Hopefully, they’ll cut him then, but you never can tell with the Warriors. (more…)