MVN - Most Valuable Network

BRBI (Madness Preview)

College basketball has the RPI. Dickie V has the VBDI (Vitale Bald Dome Index). As for me, I have the BRBI (Bleed Royal Blue Index). For the first time in a number of years, I really believe the committee got it right. Sure, I can gripe with Arizona State not getting in despite beating Arizona twice and having a better overall record in the Pac-10 but let’s face it, a 300+ non-conference schedule should land you in the NIT.

As for the Field of 65 (well 64 now, sorry Coppin State), here’s a BRBI breakdown of each region:

East (Charlotte)

Should win: North Carolina.

Why? Carolina has the POY in Tyler Hansbrough and they have Ty Lawson back and almost healthy running the point. With Lawson in the lineup, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green become so much more dangerous. Also, it doesn’t help that they wouldn’t leave the state of North Carolina before heading to San Antonio.

Why Not? One word, defense. Carolina tends to play defense only when they want to play defense (see the last 5 minutes at Cameron). However, if they don’t commit themselves on the defensive end, they can be picked off by a number of teams.

Most Vulnerable High Seed: Tennessee

Why? The Volunteers shoot way too many bad shots and like we saw last year against Ohio State, cannot protect leads in crunch time. The Vols best shooter, Chris Lofton, has been up and down all year. Also, if teams beat their pressure, they are a below average half court defensive team.

Also, a trip to San Antonio seems unlikely with the possible road of Butler, Louisville, and UNC (on the road) to get there. Butler knocked off the Vols in the Preseason NIT last year by making Tennessee a half court team. Louisville, to me, is a more talented version of Tennessee and with David Padgett, they are better than the Vols. Finally, if Tennessee can escape those games, UNC will most likely loom. Good luck.

Possible Upsets:

George Mason over Notre Dame: We all know what Mason did two years ago during their miraculous run to the Final 4. Well, a few pieces from that team still exist in Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell. I think Mike Brey has his best team ever in South Bend but GMU won’t be easy to deal with.

Butler over Tennessee (2nd Round): Butler is loaded with experience and they make teams play their pace. If they do that to Tennessee, watch out Bruce Pearl!

BRB pick: North Carolina

Midwest (Detroit)

Should win: Kansas

Why? Kansas is the deepest, most talented team in the country (by far). They really don’t have a weakness and if they do have one, it’s that they are too balanced (if that’s possible). Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson are tough to stop down low and if you double in the post, the likes of Chalmers, Rush, Collins, and Robinson will burn you from the outside.

Why Not? Bill Self. Self has done a great job assembling such a great pool of talent in Lawrence but does he have what it takes to get his team to a Final 4? After back to back losses to Bucknell and Bradley in the first round, the Jayhawks bounced back and made it to the Elite 8 only to bow out against UCLA in a practical road game.

Most Vulnerable High Seed: Wisconsin

Why? The Big 10 isn’t that good and although they should get past CSF in the first round, they will be severely outclassed athletically in the next round playing either USC or Kansas State. Wisconsin can flat out defend and Bo Ryan does more with less than any coach in America. However, they can’t score and I don’t see a go-to guy when they need a big basket. The Badger faithful can’t rely on too many more Brian Butch bank shots.

Possible Upsets:

Villanova over Clemson: In November, this would not have been an upset. Villanova came into the year over hyped with Scottie Reynolds returning for another season and Corey Stokes coming in as a highly-touted freshman. Nova was the last team in the Tournament field and whether they treat this as a reprieve on their season or continue their inconsistency remains to be seen. Clemson is a squad but let’s face it, they have no experience and they struggle hitting free throws. Plus, I get a little weary that so many people are on the Clemson bandwagon.

Kansas State over USC: Two words, Michael Beasley.

BRB pick: Kansas

South (Houston)

Should win: Toss up

This region can go many different ways in my estimation. Memphis can definitely win it but I just don’t trust them in a big spot. If they do make it to San Antonio, D. Rose will carry them, not Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Texas, although they are young, is probably the favorite to come out of this bracket for me because they will play their possible Sweet 16/Elite 8 games in Houston.

Stanford & Pittsburgh can’t be counted out as well. With Stanford, it begins and ends with Brook Lopez. If the Cardinal get anything out of their perimeter, they are very hard to beat. As for Pitt, they have a mojo about them that could carry them all the way to San Antonio.

Most Vulnerable High Seed: Memphis

Why? Competition, competition, competition. Sure, the Tigers overcame a strong non-conference schedule and only suffered one blemish this season but let’s face it, Conference USA is practically a Division II conference. The Tigers are very athletic but they lack the basketball IQ that other teams in this bracket have. If there is a #1 that could go down in the 1st weekend, it’s Memphis.

Possible Upsets:

Temple over Michigan State: There are a number of coaches known as motivators even more so than good X’s and O’s guys, Tom Izzo is one of those guys. However, Temple is red hot after winning the A-10 Tournament and Dionte Christmas is the best scorer you’ve never heard of. Will Christmas come early for Temple fans?

Mississippi State over Memphis: If the Bulldogs can get by Oregon, which I’m still not sure they can, they have the grit and style of play the frustrate the Tigers and end Memphis’ dreams of a title. Jamont Gordon is a versatile swing guard, Ben “Don’t call me Tyler” Hansbrough can knock down open shots off the bench, Charles Rhodes is a load down low, and Varnardo is the college version of Dikembe Mutumbo around the basket.

BRB Pick: Texas or Pitt (still undecided)

West (Phoenix)

Should win: UCLA

Why? UCLA is the most experienced team in college basketball coming off of two consecutive Final 4 appearances. The Bruins inability to score has hurt them the last two years but the addition of super frosh Kevin Love should solve that problem once the ball is tipped on Thursday. UCLA has one of the best coaches in the country, has a great tandem of guards with Collison and Westbrook, and they play tenacious defense.

Why not? Injuries to LR Mbah Mutae and Kevin Love could derail UCLA’s chances at a third consecutive Final 4. Also, Josh Shipp, who earlier in the year filled in nicely for the departed Aaron Affalo, seems to lack confidence in his jump shot.

Most Vulnerable High Seed: Duke

Why? I know, I know. I hate to say it but the Dukies are what they are. If they hit their 3’s, they can cut down the nets and beat anyone in the country. If they shoot it like they did against Clemson, they could get bounced by anyone (maybe not Belmont). Assuming Duke takes down Belmont, they will have to execute at a high level against either West Virginia or Arizona to advance to the next weekend.

Possible Upsets:

Georgia over Xavier: Xavier is a good squad with tremendous guard play, especially at the mid-major level. However, if there is a hotter, more inspired team than Georgia, let me know. Georgia pulled off a miracle nothing short of walking on water by winning 4 games is 3, yes 3 days to receive an automatic bid.

Arizona over Duke: Like Mississippi State, I’m not sure Arizona will get by their first round opponent but if they do, they can give the Devils all they want and more. Jerryd Bayless is the type of penetrating north-south guard that Duke struggles with, Chase Buddinger can flat out shoot, and Jordan Hill will be a load down low, especially for the undersized Blue Devils.

BRB pick: UCLA (over Duke in the Elite

Final 4: UNC v. Kansas/Texas or Pitt v. UCLA

UNC v. Kansas: Although North Carolina has all of the ingredients to win a National Championship, their inability to play consistent defense should plague them against Kansas. Kansas’ balance and big monsters down low should be enough to edge the Tar Heels.

Texas or Pitt v. UCLA: It really doesn’t matter who I pick from the South bracket because I love UCLA’s coach, defense, and winning ora. Although Texas beat UCLA earlier this season, I like UCLA over Texas. As for Pitt, UCLA is a much more talented version of Pitt and their former coach should get his squad through to the championship.

Kansas v. UCLA: I agonized over this pick. I believe these are the two best teams in the country and it would only be fitting for them to battle it out for the national championship. This would be a rematch of the West Regional Final last year but I think Kansas would get some revenge and overwhelm UCLA with their size and strength. I truly believe Ben Howland is the next version of Coach K and like Coach K, he may need to get to a number of Final 4’s before actually winning the whole thing. Don’t worry Bruin fans, he will get his one of these years, especially with Jru Holiday on the way to LA next year.

Kansas 80
UCLA 76

Hopefully, Duke can do better than I predicted but I just can’t see them shooting the ball well 6 consecutive games. There will be a Clemson type shooting game in this tournament and if they can win despite that then they could go far. However, I strongly believe that once that game comes, Duke’s season ends in heartbreaking fashion.

We’ll see. Merry Madness!

Lucky #3

The Duke program, since Coach K stepped foot in Durham, has been built on tenacious man to man defense. That has been a successful formula leading to 3 national championships and 10 Final 4 appearances. However, this year’s Duke team is atypical of the usual Top 10 Duke teams.

 Sure, the Blue Devils lead the ACC in steals and they aren’t VMI on defense but this year’s team is built less on defense and more on the 3-ball. Duke, even more so than in the past, has fallen madly in love with the 3 ball. Duke is married to the 3-ball for richer and for poorer, through sickness and in health, until death does them part.

 Duke can beat anybody in the country. No team with 8, yes count them, 8 McDonald’s All-Americans and a hall of fame coach can’t beat a given team on a given day. However, outside of the fringe NCAA teams (the 15’s and 16’s), Duke can lose to anyone on a given day because of their reliance on the 3. If that 3-ball isn’t falling, they just don’t have the answers defensively or offensively in the post. That’s why I wouldn’t be shocked if the Dukies fell in the 2nd Round this year or made their way to San Antonio.

 Duke and their preciseness from behind the arc has had an alcoholic effect on fans around college basketball. After a few drinks, even the ugliest girl starts to look good under the strobelight in the club. Duke is no different. When they hit a few 3’s, they look unstoppable but once those 3-balls stop falling, the Blue Devils’ chances in March look less and less attractive. If we’re still speaking in metaphors, hopefully Duke gets us drunk off the 3-ball in March and even April.

Devils Beware

I’m not sure the type of performance the Blue Devils put together Saturday in Durham was good enough to beatBoston College or NC State, let alone North Carolina.  In front of a Senior Night crowd the Devils had one of their worst shooting days in school history, shooting 32.9% from the field and only .345% from three.  That is unacceptable from a team with no real inside presence that relies so heavily on its shooting touch.  In their last meeting with UNC they made 13 three point baskets, on Saturday they made 10.  For most teams 10 is a great number of threes.  But when you’re Duke and you attempt 29 of them…you’re probably going to lose the game.   

The main culprit in the loss, besides the poor shooting, was play of Danny Green. Green had 18 points and 8 rebounds, both numbers far above his season averages.  To go along with those totals he also recorded 7 blocked shots which is WAY above his average of 1.4.  It seemed any time Duke went into the paint for a shot Green was there to send it back the other way.  The Devils did a great job on Hansbrough even though he scored 16 points and grabbed 15 boards. He didn’t go to the line once, which was the first time that has happened since his freshmen year when the Heels lost to George Mason in the NCAA Tournament.   

I hate doing this, as the team struggled as a whole, but a player who needed to show up but nowhere to be found was Demarcus Nelson.  Being as it was Senior Night and being the lone senior on the team, maybe Nelson let nerves have an effect on his play.  Coming into the game as the teams leading scorer, Nelson only managed six points on 3-12 shooting including 0-5 from beyond the arc.  Perhaps even more costly than the missed shots were his team high four turnovers for one of the country’s best ball handling teams.  At times Nelson seemed too frantic when he touched the ball, driving quickly toward the basket and either getting stripped or fumbling the ball when the Devils had no help anywhere near the hoop.   

Duke is too good of a shooting team to have a replay of this game, but if their threes aren’t falling they have no shot.  They can’t score inside, having only one player over 6’8 and that’s Brian Zoubek who’s not an offensive threat.  I’m pretty sure this game was an aberration and that Duke won’t play nearly this bad again, but if they come close to the ineptness they showed on Saturday they won’t reach the finals of the ACC Tournament let alone do any sort of damage in March Madness. 

Saturday Will Make or Break Blue Devils…

Duke. North Carolina. 8 miles apart. Private v. Public. K v. Roy. The storylines are immense and never lacking. However, this game will determine Duke’s fate in the big dance. The Blue Devils have more question marks than the Riddler from Batman whether it’s a slow perimeter, a lacking inside presence, and an over reliance on the 3 ball but if they can knock off the Tar Heels on Saturday night, they have a great shot of playing in San Antonio next month. A win on Saturday all but assures the Devils of the #1 seed in the East region, which would be huge because they wouldn’t have to leave the state of North Carolina to get to the Final Four. Has there ever been a more important game in this rivalry? This one could and should determine a lot, maybe even a national championship…