MVN - Most Valuable Network

Cardinals vs Browns: How can the Cards be favored?

I woke up this morning, after doing my best to utterly avoid any and all stories about the Cardinals after last weeks disaster against SF, to find that Las Vegas had actually installed the Cardinals at 1.5 point FAVORITES this week.

Didn’t Las Vegas watch last week’s game? I’ve been watching this team for 18 years now and that loss might have been the all-time low for fans, if not the franchise, in how to not only lose a game but cut the heart out of your team and fan base in the process.

In this week’s preview let me give you all the reasons why the Cardinals have no shot at winning this week:

1. The secondary is a disaster. Adrian Wilson and Eric Green, the two best players in their secondary, both went on season ending IR with injuries. The guys replacing them, Oliver Celestin and Ralph Brown are not exactly going to strike fear into the hearts of Kellen Winslow, Braylon Edwards and the rest of the Browns high flying passing game. The Cards secondary, thin already with Aaron Francisco hobbled, is now a twisted ankle away from total disaster. If the Browns don’t hang 30+ on this secondary I’ll be stunned.

2. Zero pass rush. The Cardinals have lost both their starting DE/OLBs in Okeafor and Berry and the lack of depth at that position is crippling their pass rush. Add in the fact that Adrian Wilson is the most disruptive force on the defense, take away the two best pass rushers and what we have now is a hard working, blue collar line that is getting zero pressure on the QB. No pass rush + weak secondary = disaster, folks. Again, I see 30 points being put up by Cleveland.

3. Lack of depth haunts this team. The Cardinals run defense has been slowing grinding down with the injuries and inability to scheme as well as they could early on. The facts are that most guys are second string for a reason and when you are forced to play them for long stretches, good offenses exploit that. The Cardinals are still a draft or two away from being deep enough to sustain injuries and not have a huge dropoff in play. Last year’s draft is coming back to haunt them with the whiff in the 3rd round on Buster Davis, the trade of a 4th round to move up to get the very average Alan Branch and the surrender of a 6th round to get the long ago cut Brandon Gorin. Imagine if those picks were a corner, DE and LB. You’d at least have some young bodies that might just have filled those gaps.

4. Offensive line is still not top level. I hate to point this out but the offensive line, while greatly improved, is still at best a middle of the pack bunch that is susceptible to mental mistakes that kill drives (or end games, check out the replay of last week’s play where Warner was nailed in the end zone.) This team can’t run the ball in crucial situations and last week made SF look like a good defense. I don’t think the play calling helps that much as I’d have liked to seen Edge get about 10 more carries, particularly in the fourth quarter, but very often the center position is overrun on running plays and the edge blocking is hit or miss. Mike Gandy has been a pleasant surprise in pass blocking but his run blocking hasn’t been anything special. Reggie Wells and Deuce Leutui have had good, but not great years, while Al Johnson and Levi Brown have played below expectations and their salary levels. I am still stunned we are playing Johnson, who is a basically just a good NFL center, $7 million this season and I will keep pointing out that Levi Brown was a HUGE reach at the 5th pick and his salary number is going to kill this team for the next three seasons or longer. His play has been below average at best and thats not what you expect from the 5th pick in the draft. The fact is this team can’t run when it needs to and has shifted to a very pass-heavy play calling.

5. Both of our receivers are hurting for this game. Fitzgerald has a bad hamstring and is a gametime decision and Anquan Boldin has a chronic hip problem that has hindered his explosiveness all year. Toss in the fact that Sean Morey was caught from behind by a linebacker when he had a 15 yard head start and you have a situation where 3 of our 4 receivers might have issues getting separation in coverage. Bryant Johnson, other then not getting the jump ball to win the game last week, has been playing some of his best football this season and he actually might be a key this week. However, when your third receiver is potentially your go to guy your offense, as that offense is now totally reliant upon the pass, your team is probably in trouble.

6. They have Kellen Winslow, we have Leonard Pope.  I know Leonard has been playing better of late, but he is still good for a couple of dumb penalties or improperly run routes each game, while Winslow is probably the best offensive weapon in the NFL at the tight end position this year. In case Cardinal fans missed this, we cut one of our mediocre tight ends, Tim Euhus, this week and our other rookie tight end, Ben Patrick had two horrible special team penalties that wiped out a decent performance catching the ball. The facts are that the TEs in the modern NFL offense are essential weapons and the Browns have the best and ours are young guys trying to stick in the league. Big, big advantage to the Browns there.

7. Our kicker is a mess mentally and can’t be counted on to win a close game.  Ok, we cut Matt Barr this week and brought in some journeyman punter that I won’t even bother naming as he will be gone in 5 weeks, but our kicking game is a disaster right now. You can hang last week’s loss, and a couple of others this year, on the fact that we are last in the NFL in punting and that our kicker has only made ONE game winning kick in his entire career, but has whiffed on at least 5 or 6 game winners when given the chance. Whisenhunt kept Rackers on, because quite frankly, other then some horrible retreads sitting at home who were they going to get to replace him? Does anyone want to see Neil lining up to kick a 48 yarder to win the game this week? I know I don’t.

8. Special teams have been impacted by injury and our coverage is a mess right now.  When your special teamers suddenly move to starting slots due to injuries to other players they impact special teams negatively. Special teams is all about depth and drafting properly and the facts are the Cardinals don’t have good enough players to be a top ranked special teams unit. The Browns have an electric kick and punt return game and it could get ugly if the Cardinals are forced to punt often in this one.

9. I expect a BIG drop off in fans at the game, negating the home field advantage. Eli and I were at last week’s game, just like we always are, and the fact is the crowd was flat and quiet for most of the game. The fans in the valley are the biggest front running, dull, disinterested group of people you’ll ever meet. We were walking through the parking lot before the game and it was quiet, laid back and dispassionate with zero energy and excitement. After last week’s gut punch I’ll predict at least 5000 to 6000 empty seats and a big contingent of Browns fans showing up to counter the noise. Until this team wins some games that matter the casual fan that follows this team is just not going to care or show up. That’s the Valley of the Sun, folks, and there is no getting around it.

Ok, so all that said, what’s my prediction for this week?

I say the Cardinals keep it close for about two quarters and then the roof caves in on them. Browns 42 - Cardinals 24.  

This entry was posted on Saturday, December 1st, 2007 at 8:29 am and is filed under Voice of the Cardinals, game analysis, Regular season, General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.