MVN - Most Valuable Network

The price of average drafts. Mediocrity and salary cap purgatory.

As I was going over my analysis of the Cleveland Browns/Arizona Cardinals game it jumped out at me that the franchises that are consistently struggling to obtain respectability, such as Arizona and Cleveland, have two common denominators. Those common denominators are that they typically are drafting at the top of the board and paying huge salary cap busting contracts to mediocre players.  In addition to those high pick mistakes they typically do an exceptionally poor job on the middle round draft picks that make up the guts of most successful teams rosters.

Then the question is, when looking at the last few years drafts, have the Cardinals done a good job of selecting top of the round talent that is very expensive against the cap and also how have they done on their middle round picks that build your teams foundation.

While we all intuitively know that the successful teams are great drafting organizations, such as New England and Baltimore, there are very few break downs of the successful teams and the least successful teams on a draft by draft basis that go beyond the superficial look at the first round.

So, out of curiosity lets take a look at the Cardinals over the last 8 years, and then set some ground rules for the analysis. Starting with the 2000 draft how many of the Cardinals players are still on the team, with a sub category for how many of the drafted players are still in the NFL playing in some capacity. I bring this up as Rod Graves recently said that the Cardinals had one of the best records over the last few years on selecting players that are still in the NFL in some capacity. However, in addition to looking at WHO they drafted let us also take a look at WHERE they drafted and the impact on salary cap of drafting high by calculating the percentage of cap that the team has tied up in first round picks still on the roster as well as total cap space anticipated going into 2008. I’m not going to include free agents signed as rookies as those are hard to track and it’s really hit or miss on which ones turn out to be players. It isn’t drafting skill as much as it is winning the lottery on finding a rare rookie free agent who sticks, and those that do stick rarely evolve into anything more then a good NFL player.

Each player listed below in bold is still playing in the league.

Each player listed in bold and italics is still playing for the team that drafted them.

Arizona Cardinals drafts:

2000 Draft 3 players in the league, 0 players on the roster.

1st-7 Thomas Jones

2nd-41 Raynoch Thompson

3rd-71 Darwin Walker

4th-102 David Barrett

5th-136 Mao Tosi

5th-154 Jay Tant

6th-162 Jabbari Issa

7th-215 Seykou Sanyika

2001 Draft 6 still playing, 1 on the roster.

1st-2nd Leonard Davis

2nd-34th Kyle Vanden Bosch

3rd-54th Michael Stone

3rd-64th Adrian Wilson

4th-98th Bill Gramatica

4th-123 Marcus Bell

5th-133 Mario Fatafehi

6th-166 Bobby Newcombe

7th-202 Renaldo Hill

7th-246 Tevia Ofahengaue

2002 Draft 2 players still in the league, 0 players on roster.

1st-12th Wendall Bryant

2nd-49th Levar Fisher

3rd-81 Josh McCown

3rd-98 Dennis Johnson

4th-113 Nate Dwyer

5th-149 Jason McAddley

6th-185 Josh Scobey

7th-223 Mike Banks

2003 Draft 6 still in the league, 5 still on the roster.

1st-17th Bryant Johnson

1st-18th Calvin Pace

2nd-54th Anquan Boldin

3rd-70th Gerald Hayes

5th-141 Kenny King

6th-177 Reggie Wells

6th-210 Tony Gilbert

2004 Draft 6 players still in the league, 4 players still on the roster.
1st-3rd Larry Fitzgerald

2nd-33rd Karlos Dansby

3rd-64th Darnell Dockett

4th-100 Alex Stepanovich

5th-135 Antonio Smith

6th-167 Nick Leckey

7th-202 John Navarre

2005 Draft, 6 still in the league, 5 still on the roster.

1st-8th Antrel Rolle

2nd-44th J.J. Arrington

3rd-75th Eric Green

3rd-95th Darryl Blackstock

4th-111 Elton Brown

5th-168 Lance Mitchell

7th-226 LeRon McCoy

2006 Draft 5 still in NFL, 5 still on roster.

1st-10th Matt Leinart

2nd-41st Deuce Lutui

3rd-72nd Leonard Pope

4th-107 Gabe Watson

5th-142 Brandon Johnson

6th-177 Jonathan Lewis

7th-218 Todd Watkins

2007 Draft 5 still playing, 4 still on teams roster.

1st-5th Levi Brown

2nd-33rd Alan Branch

3rd-69th Buster Davis

5th-142 Steve Breaston

7th-215 Ben Patrick

So, lets take a look at the summary of these eight drafts that should have made up the core of this team.

You had 59 total players drafted in those 8 drafts, or just over 7 picks per year.

Of those 59, 39, or 66% of the picks, are still on an NFL roster somewhere, with only Leonard Davis, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Thomas Jones being starters for other teams. I’d contend that is a pretty impressive record of talent evaluation if the criteria is simply guys sticking in the league for several years.

Of the remaining players on the list however, only 24 are still on the Cardinals 2007 roster, which is a 40% hit rate on your draft picks, and of those 24, 16 of them are starters and three of those have made the Pro-Bowl. Again, probably a good ratio when compared to other teams, but you could argue the team was so devoid of talent heading into 2003-4 that it was inevitable that certain players would stick simply out of necessity to fill roster spots. Either way it would indicate the Cardinals are at least average in finding NFL players but probably until this year below average in coaching those players to above average results in the NFL.

In looking at the big picture the problem drafts that just killed this team were in 2000, in which virtually no players remain on the roster and only two players are even in the NFL, 2001 when they had 10 picks and only have one player, Adrian Wilson, still left on the roster and then the absolutely disastrous 2002 draft in which number one pick Wendall Bryant was the ultimate bust and only two players are even left in the NFL. Those three drafts are best remembered for the evaluation mistakes, draft errors and poor coaching, as well as the inevitable salary cap issues they caused due to drafting so high up the board and then missing on key players.

However, of real interest to you Rod Graves bashers, when you look at the list, you might be surprised to find that most of the solid picks on the current roster have come during his tenure. It is that first Rod Graves draft in 2003, a draft that was initially labeled a bust because of the trade down to get Johnson and Pace,  and thus passing up Terrell Suggs, that when looked at from a distance of time, you now have 5 key starters on the current roster from that draft as well as Tony Gilbert who is a starter for the Jag’s. In all regards you’d have to give the 2003 draft an A when you evaluate it based on the job his predecessor did and at least a B compared to other NFL teams. However that draft set a tone that is consistent with Graves which is that he prefers to draft for need and will by pass superior talent many times to plug holes.

Essentially the current roster is a Rod Graves roster at this point and the fact is that he has done a good job filling it with solid NFL guys and raising the talent from the utter pits that preceded his taking over for Bob Ferguson in 2003.

However, while there aren’t a lot of big strike outs in the last 4 drafts, other then the whiff on Buster Davis, which I still can’t get over as I was sure he was going to be a great pro, there are the cap implications and risks that come from drafting in the top ten every year that make the selection process very high risk and as we’ve indicated Rod is adverse to high risk. If you were to make one critique of Graves so far is that he tends to be risk adverse and drafts for need as opposed to stock piling the best possible talent regardless of position when selecting in the top of the draft. To me the glaring example of this philosophy potentially hurting the team in the big picture is the passing on Adrian Peterson this year to reach and take Levi Brown at the 5th slot in the first round. I felt if you needed an elite tackle that badly you trade up to get Joe Thomas or, failing in that attempt, you take the insanely talented Peterson at the 5th pick and then maneuver at the bottom of the first round to get a Tony Ugoh or Joe Staley who graded out as similar talents to Brown on most draft boards. Either way I felt then and now that you don’t invest $60 million in a player who is anything other then a blue chip, can’t miss, type of player like Fitzgerald, Leinart or a guy like Peterson. As of right now Antrel Rolle and Levi Brown both were “need picks” taken in the top ten selections and if you are an honest evaluator you’d have to say both will be “good” NFL players but certainly not “great” based on their play to date. If you had selected them in the middle of the round or the tail end of the first, you could live with this level of performance, but not when you take them that high and are chewing up $60 million in potential salary cap space to each player.

Also, upon review the one draft that might come back to haunt this franchise is the 2005 draft as you really only have one starter out of that mix, Eric Green, and the rest of the guys have been either cut or are big disappointments. If history shows you anything in building a roster it is that you can’t have drafts where you totally strike out or you are going to pay for it big time down the line in depth and excessive use of free agency and cap money to plug roster holes. The jury is out on this years draft so far as well, with only Steve Breaston being a solid hit at his draft position, and Levi Brown looking ok, but certainly not like a top 5 pick last week against Seattle.

A lot is going to have to be done in the coaching department to get these picks up to speed as players, because if the 2005 and 2007 drafts don’t pan out, you can look for the wheels to fall off this bus in the 2008 and 2009 seasons due to lack of depth and explosive play-makers on both sides of the ball. I feel very good about the Ken Whisenhunt staff and they will likely get the most out of the talent they have provided, but when you pass on a huge playmaker and play it safe you might never get out of the rut of mediocrity. The play it safe, draft for need approach that Graves typically takes leaves the team with good, but not great players, but also more damaging in the big picture is you have average players at the top of the salary level receiving huge paychecks and preventing you from signing other key free agents you might need to plug a hole.

I did a rough calculation and found that the last four picks for the Cardinals, Levi Brown, Matt Leinart, Antrel Rolle and Larry Fitzgerald are currently scheduled to account for just under $40 million of salary cap in 2008. Just some quick math, but essentially you have four drafted players who are accounting for almost 36% of the entire teams projected 2008 salary cap number in a sport where you carry 53 guys! You can look at those names and say there is currently just one player who is worth that kind of money and that’s Fitz. Leinart could prove to be a bargain at the 10th slot but his injury ruined this year so the jury is still out on him. Rolle has been a bust as a starting corner and is trying to remake himself as a nickel corner and Levi Brown, the 4th highest paid O-Lineman in the NFL just spent a Sunday looking below average against the Seahawks.

The point here is that if you are going to be allocating huge chunks of money to players you are far better off doing it in free agency when you know if the guy can play in the NFL then you are picking at the top of the draft. The Levi Brown $60 million salary is going to be an issue in continuing to sign other core players. If you look at successful teams like NE or Indy, there big cap numbers go to PROVEN vets and skill players but not to high round, high pick, cap busting rookies who may or may not pan out. The Cardinals are in a very dangerous position at the moment with the pressure being squarely on the coaching staff to coach up these high round, big cap number players to greatness or the team will be pinched to sign it’s other stars and to add quality players to the roster.

My observation is that if Rod Graves is going to continue to be the GM of the Cardinals, which he surely is for the next three years, the team is probably far better off trading down much as the Patriots do and stock pile lower picks. They obviously don’t have the stomach or temperament to draft play-makers at the top of the board but do a decent job of picking mid-round talent. Avoid the big cap hits and bust potential at the top of the board, trade down and get more talent and hope it pans out. It is the rare playmaker who hits free agency any more, so if the Cardinals ever hope to be better then a 7-9 and 8-8 team they need to start hanging on to draft picks, and building the foundation of the team as they clearly don’t feel comfortable drafting playmakers at the top of the draft.

In short, I give Rod Graves a solid B for his last few years, but his caution at moving around the board and drafting big talent is probably going to limit the upside of the franchise. Fitzgerald was a Denny Green pick from the start, Leinart dropped into their laps but in the other drafts they have been excessively cautious in the first round and it will probably come back to haunt them.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 at 11:20 am and is filed under Regular season, Draft News, Free agency. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.