MVN - Most Valuable Network

Are the Chiefs Really Overachieving?

I double-apologize for piggy-backing on Jon’s post which piggy-backed on Bill Williamson’s column on MSNBC. However, Mr. Williamson’s column brings up a theme which keeps festering in my head and which I can no longer ignore. To quote:

Many expected the Chiefs to flounder all season long and scuffle to win five games with one of the weakest overall rosters in the league. With a still fairly unsettled quarterback situation, a struggling Larry Johnson and overall weak offense, the OK-on defense Chiefs should be fighting for a top pick in the draft, not be over .500 at this point of the season.

To be fair to Mr. Williamson, he is not the only person to express this sentiment. It seems every week, “NFL experts” are are doubting the Chiefs because they feel that the personnel is subpar. I remember a friend of mine asking me for my prediction on the Chiefs, and he was surprised that I said, “I can see this team finishing anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6.” He thought that even my low-end prediction was too high. But why, exactly, does it seem like I am the only one not surprised to see the Chiefs at 4-3?

I know a lot of it has to do with the HBO show “Hard Knocks.” I did not see the show, but Bill Simmons (aka The Sports Guy) in his preseason power rankings pretty much summed up the sentiments of many when he noted that he saw “Hard Knocks,” and was thoroughly unimpressed with what he saw.

However, there were some who based their opinion on the roster itself, and it is those people whom I don’t quite understand. Everyone seems to forget that this was a playoff team last year. Sure, some would say they sneaked in, but the fact of the matter is that the Chiefs were, at worst, one of the top seven teams in the AFC last year. What changed so much that the Chiefs, all of a sudden, were one of the worst teams in the NFL?

It must have been the personnel, right? The primary reason cited for ranking the Chiefs so low was their QB situation. Sure, Damon Huard is no superstar, but he was still the QB who led the Chiefs in a good portion of their playoff-worthy record, and he had most of the same weapons at his disposal. Larry Johnson was beat up, but nobody expected him to rush for fewer than 1,500 yards this season. Will Shields retired, and that is a huge loss, but many expected John Welbourn at least to fill in adequately (which he hasn’t). Willie Roaf retired two years ago, but the Chiefs still made it to the playoffs without him, and they obtained a better replacement this year (Damien McIntosh) than they had last year. Sure, the offense is aging, but it is still chock-full of Pro Bowlers (Brian Waters, Tony Gonzalez, Larry Johnson).

I think it is fair to say that the offense has performed about as the “experts” expected, at least scoring-wise. The Chiefs are averaging a pretty putrid 14.6 points per game, though their scoring has surprisingly been predicated more on the passing game than the running game. I figured the running game would regress a bit and the passing game would improve a bit, but I certainly did not expect the change to be this drastic. Still, I can’t help but be disappointed so far with the offense’s performance to date.

What I was absolutely correct about (which I am not afraid to brag about) and what the “experts” were absolutely wrong about is how good this defense is. With this defense, I could not understand how anybody could consider the Chiefs to be among the five worst teams in the league. The defensive roster is certainly not lacking in quality players. Jared Allen, though underrated, has always been considered a force, and Tamba Hali has actually underperformed to expectations this year. The linebacking corps significantly improved, with a much more athletic Napoleon Harris taking over for Kawika Mitchell, and with a far more savvy Donnie Edwards taking over for the exceedingly disappointing Kendrell Bell. Not to mention that Derrick Johnson could only be expected to improve with each passing year. The cornerbacks were not an issue, but even though inserting two second-year safeties into the starting lineup was a gamble, there was no doubt that this tandem would be more athletic than last year’s duo of Sammy Knight and Greg Wesley. Besides, who believes that a defense sinks or swims with the safeties?

Special teams, of course, was a concern, and still is. However, most expected Justin Medlock to be an upgrade over the frustrating Lawrence Tynes, and many felt that Dante Hall had seen his better days as a returner go by.

In effect, you had a roster that lost Will Shields (huge loss), Ryan Sims (addition by subtraction), Kawika Mitchell, and Sammy Knight (reasonable, but not backbreaking losses), and demoted Kendrell Bell and Greg Wesley. The roster gained Damien McIntosh, Dwayne Bowe, Alfonso Boone, Napoleon Harris, Turk McBride, Tank Tyler, and Donnie Edwards. This was not going to be a Super Bowl roster, but there were too many quality veterans and talented youngsters to think that this team would finish any worse than 6-10, which is hardly an indicator of a bottom-feeding team.

The next two games will mean a lot as to how everyone will view the Chiefs. Beating the Packers and Broncos at home would put them at 6-3, which nobody expected they would sniff. Heck, most people didn’t have the Chiefs winning six games all year. But I will say this- if the Chiefs finish at 8-8 or better, it seems that everyone will be surprised but me.

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 1st, 2007 at 7:31 am and is filed under Roster/Personnel, Media, Analysis, General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.