Jarrad Page:

I’m going to grade Page as a “boom” player. Page can cover like a nickel back, which is something you want out of your free safety, particularly one that operates in a Tampa 2. His downfall is that he often takes poor tackling angles and he has a tendency to gamble. Those are aspects of his game that need some work, but they are coachable. However, I would argue that his inconsistent play last year was mostly the result of a poor supporting cast and perhaps due to poor scheming by Gunther Cunningham. The Chiefs’ biggest problem toward the end of last year was that their defensive interior was extremely leaky. When offenses run the ball at will in the interior, your safeties typically have no choice but to cheat in a bit to stop the run. So while some may blame Page for taking bad angles, there’s an argument to be made that a good interior defensive line should be able to keep those RBs out of the middle of the field and run-supporting LBs (unlike the Chiefs’ lighter, swifter LBs) should be able to stop the run before it gets to the last line of defense.

Page might also suffer from poor scheming on Gunther Cunningham’s part. When Gun plays corners so far off the line of scrimmage, he is basically giving receivers a free pass to sprint to deep pockets in the zone. I really don’t understand why the Chiefs’ corners played off the line as often as they did. Surtain and Law aren’t quick enough anymore to stay with receivers; they would be at their best close to the line of scrimmage, pressing receivers, and guarding a smaller zone–by the way, that type of defense is called a Tampa 2 and I don’t know why Gun so often moves away from that defense. If Gun can finally start running more Tampa 2 sets, the pass rush improves, and the defensive line doesn’t allow every single RB to roam the middle, then Page will turn into a star.

Bernard Pollard:

You could blame scheme and supporting cast for some of Pollard’s problems as well. However, I’m going to label him as a bust for a different reason. I’m just not convinced that he has the speed to operate in the kind of defense Herm Edwards wants to run and I have always questioned why Herm drafted him in the first place. I really wonder how much of Pollard’s selection was influenced by Gun, who has a penchant for in-the-box safeties. What bothers me about Pollard is that he’s just not fast and that’s an enormous liability in a Tampa 2. John Lynch got away with it, but then again, he also could sniff a play from a mile away and also had an outstanding pass rush in front of him that didn’t force him to play too much deep coverage. Pollard doesn’t have either of these things.

I think I would rather see Dajuan Morgan enter the mix. While he’s not a blazer, he is faster than Pollard and should be able to guard a much larger zone than Pollard could. And whereas Pollard often got beat deep, Morgan should have better closing speed to ensure that doesn’t happen. I like Pollard. I love his attitude. But he doesn’t belong in this defense.

Boom?

DJ from Arrowheadpride gave his five reasons why the Chiefs’ offensive line will be better in 2008. His first point is probably the most compelling. He basically implies that the offensive line couldn’t possibly be worse than it was in 2007. That’s a pretty good point. Watching Welbourn and Terry on the right side of the offensive line was like watching paint dry while repeatedly getting kicked in the privates. Casey Wiegmann has never been a horrible center, but he appears to have aged a bit and looked outmatched much of the time as he operated in more of a power blocking scheme. The Chiefs almost certainly win at right tackle because Damion McIntosh can’t possibly be worse than Chris Terry was. McIntosh has always been a decent run blocker, but he’s often been too slow to keep up with speed rushers. He should fare better at right tackle where he will have to handle slower, power rushers. It will be an adjustment, but he can do it.

Neutral?

I’m actually going to list Rudi Niswanger as a draw over Casey Wiegmann. While Wiegmann was never outstanding in 2007, he did bring exceptional leadership to the offensive line. That’s going to be a hard thing for a fresh fish like Niswanger to replace. I like Niswanger and I think he’ll do just fine, but he will be limited by his lack of experience and he still has not proven anything on the pro level yet. Brian Waters is also a draw, but don’t get ahead of yourself and become too excited just yet. Waters has not played at a pro bowl level since Willie Roaf left and he’s gradually played worse and worse. Last year, he arguably played the worst season of his career. I expect him to become more motivated this season as he tries to lead his young line mates, but I think he gets worse because he’ll be spending a lot of time trying to protect Branden Albert’s behind. Waters’ ups balance out the downs.

Bust?

The last point about Albert allows us to transition to the last category: where do the Chiefs lose? Branden Albert is one player who will likely be a downgrade over last year’s option. I like Branden Albert, but realistically, he’s a developmental left tackle. He’s going to make a lot of mistakes early in the year. Given that we know nothing about what he can do at left tackle, there’s a possibility he could bust outright. That’s a different story from last year, when the Chiefs had a serviceable though not outstanding left tackle in McIntosh. Albert has considerably more upside than McIntosh, but he’s also got considerably more downside.

The other position of concern is right guard, where Adrian Jones is slated to start. This is another position that the Chiefs could amazingly be worse at, in spite of having a lousy option in 2007. Jones played so poorly with the Jets that he went from being a starting left tackle to a midseason cut. Not a promising signing. Arguably, he could transition pretty easily to guard because it’s an easier position to play than left tackle, but Jones has always been a footwork guy and not a power guy. The Chiefs have to be concerned that he’s going to get bulldozed playing guard. Though, there is a possibility that Jones could do just fine. Let’s not forget that this is a team that aims to run first, pass second. Lighter linemen can sometimes be better guards in a zone blocking scheme, because they have superior footwork over mountainous guards.

The Jury

This good news is, this is an offensive line that is a lot of options and a lot of upside. The bad news is, it’s unlikely that the Chiefs find that upside right away. Chances are pretty good that 2 or 3 of the current starters will not be starters 1-2 years from now. The Chiefs’ linemen should benefit greatly from a more unpredictable offense, unlike last season when they played under Mike Solari’s offense. It’s hard to protect against a defense that knows exactly what you’re going to do.

By the end of the season, I sense that the line will have more answers than it has questions. They’ll know if Albert is the real deal or if he belongs back at guard, where he will be a surefire star. If Niswanger isn’t the answer at center, then the Chiefs won’t hesitate to start Wade Smith and potentially move Niswanger to guard. If McIntosh isn’t the answer at right tackle or if he gets injured, which he almost certainly will be, then the Chiefs should give some snaps to Herb Taylor or maybe even Barry Richardson.

My feeling is that the Chiefs’ offensive line begins the season worse than they were in 2007. By the end of the season, they should be significantly better. Because it’s a rebuilding year, I’m okay with that.

Is he a good fit for the Kansas City good guys?  Is he someone the team should take a chance on, assuming the money, contract length and character issues are addressed?  Is it worth the risk?

No. No. And hell no.

I don’t care if we pay Robinson the league minimum and load his contracts with incentives.  I don’t care if he could bring some veteran leadership to a club that sorely lacks it, specifically in the wide receiver department.  We simply don’t need the headache that is Koren Robinson.

Look, I know that guys can change.  That doesn’t necessarily mean they do change.  If you’re a jerk (Terrell Owens), you’ll always be a jerk.  You may hold your tongue longer, or keep your comments out of the media more often, but you will still be a jerk. 

Rarely does someone seem to overcome their issues and their off-the-field problems entirely.  There may be periods of time when the person seems to have their act together, like when Robinson was selected to the 2006 Pro Bowl - but the troubling issues still linger. 

That’s one of the main reasons that the Chiefs got rid of fan favorite Jared Allen - he of the two-time DUI conviction.  Allen appeared to have rid himself of his demons…and then promptly opened up a bar in Kansas City.  Journalistic integrity forbids me from telling the full story, but I would be very, very hesitant to believe all of Allen’s claims that he’s been sober for as long as he stated. 

The same philosophy holds with Robinson.  I truly hope he’s beaten his alcohol demons.  I cannot imagine what carnage he’s inflicted on himself, his family, his friends and his career.  However, it’s too much risk to sign someone and cross your fingers that he’ll be available week to week. 

It sounds like Oakland is also interested in Robinson, which makes perfect sense.  On a team that prides itself on being outlaws, the Raiders would be an ideal destination for someone who has two strikes from the NFL’s substance abuse policy and multiple jail sentences to his credit.

Robinson would bring some talent to Kansas City.  He would provide veteran leadership, and a big target for Brodie Croyle.  But he would also bring too many distractions and too much risk, which is something a young team that is probably going to struggle in 2008 doesn’t need.  Pass on this one, Carl Peterson.  You’ll regret it if you don’t.

No one likes their punter.  If he’s on the field, it means your offense didn’t score, or they just got crushed in their own end zone for a safety.  They’re the guys who have to wear tape around their socks to hold them up, and when they fail, they fail spectacularly.  However, they do play an important role in terms of field position, and a good punter can be a weapon instead of a liability.

1.) Shane Lechler (Oakland)- A 3-time Pro Bowler and 5-time All-Pro, Lechler is exactly what you’re looking for in a punter.  Someone who consistently booms his kicks with plenty of distance and height.  Lechler has the NFL record for best average per punt in a career (46.5), and consistently ranks near the top in all punting categories.  Additionally, he also gives Raider Nation another punter to rally behind, once Ray Guy makes it into the Hall of Fame in about 300 years.  (4 points)

2.) Dustin Colquitt (Kansas City) - I would venture to say that Colquitt is so good because he’s talented.  Others will say he gets plenty of practice playing for the Chiefs and their sputtering offense.  Whatever the case may be, Colquitt is a Pro Bowler waiting to happen.  He’s also left-footed, so the reverse spin causes plenty of havoc with unsuspecting return men.  Colquitt has a tendency to kick balls that don’t get higher than most 3-woods, though, which can result in some very long returns. (3 points)

3.) Mike Scifres (San Diego)- Scifres is threatening to take Colquitt’s place as the second-best kicker in the conference, as evidence by his two selections as a Pro Bowl alternate.  He sometimes struggles with his consistency, but he is still a valuable weapon for the Chargers. (2 points)

4.) Sam Paulescu (Denver) - I have literally never heard of this guy.  (1 point)

Running Tally:

San Diego - 41 points

Oakland - 30 points

Kansas City - 26 points

Denver - 23 points

The guys you love to hate.  The unathletic weenies who spend all of training camp brushing up on their 3-irons rather than their 40-yard dash times.  The runts on the sideline who remind me of the guys who used to hit on your girlfriend in college.  The “men” who wear gloves when the temperature gets below 72 degrees.

Of course, I’m talking about kickers - the smallest guys on the team, who can have the biggest impact.  Fans take kickers for granted…until you have Lin Elliot line up for your team during an important playoff game.  Or you waste a first-day draft pick on someone who “gets nervous playing in front of a big crowd”.  Then your kicking troubles blow up in your face.  Let’s see who can boast the best kicker in the conference.

1.) Nate Kaeding (San Diego) - A third-round draft pick, Kaeding may be the most underrated part of the vaunted Phillip Rivers/Eli Manning trade in 2004.  A 2007 Pro Bowl selection, Kaeding actually played most of last year on a broken fibula.  Maybe kickers aretough…or maybe not.  His post-season struggles are well-documented, but he is still the class of the AFC West kickers - which is like LeBron James beating a bunch of deaf mutes in wheelchairs in a game of basketball. (4 points)

2.) Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland) - I’ll put it this way - he could be the best kicker in the league, but most NFL players deal with the threat of being injured or caught by the substance abuse program.  Sea-Bass has to be concerned with getting deported due to his frequent, frequent run-ins with the law.  That has to take a toll on the mind. 

He’s got the leg, but maybe not the mental makeup to be one of the game’s elite kickers.  And when the first thought that pops into my mind isn’t “first-round draft pick” or “banged a 64-yarder off the top of the upright”, but instead is “I hope my daughter is never in the same room with this guy”, you’ve got character issues.  If Janikowski is found tied and gagged in the back of a Thunderbird with 12 bullet holes in the trunk, I would be the least surprised guy in the world. (3 points)

3.) Mike Prater (Denver) - Prater must know what Aaron Rodgers is feeling like, having to replace a legend.  With the departure of long-time Chiefs/Broncos/Chargers killer Jason Elam, Prater will get the opportunity to win the starting kicking job.  I have never heard of him, so I have no idea what he can do.  The only reason he gets the #3 position is because… (2 points)

4.) TBD (Kansas City)- Everyone says that Brodie Croyle is the biggest question mark the Chiefs have this season.  I agree that Croyle has to prove some people wrong, but at least we’re assured he’s the starter.  But who will kick for the Chiefs?  Nick Novak?  Billy Cundiff?  Francis the Mule?  No one is for sure - I just hope someone wins the competition this year rather than our opening day kicker stumbling bass-ackwards into the role. (1 point)

Running Tally:

San Diego - 39 points

Oakland - 26 points

Kansas City - 23 points

Denver - 22 points

I am extremely optimistic about the Chiefs’ future prospects and I am extremely excited to watch our youth develop. I truly believe that in 2 or 3 years, the Chiefs’ patient approach to team building is going to pay much larger dividends than teams spending money to win now (i.e. the Jets and Raiders). That being said, realistically, this team is good enough for about 6 wins this season. Sorry, Chiefs’ fans.

The Good

The Chiefs get Larry Johnson back and, as I predicted earlier (prediction #1), LJ will get 1,500+ yards. Keep in mind that the Chiefs were 4-4 last year with LJ and 0-8 without him, so there is no doubt that LJ is a difference-maker. He carried the team on his shoulders in 2006 in spite of a lousy supportive offensive cast and a subpar offensive line, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t do it again especially behind the vastly improved playcalling of Chan Gailey. Chan Gailey will also get the most out of not only LJ, but the rest of the offense. His much more unpredictable playcalling will keep defenses on their toes. His personnel shifts that favor two-TE sets and pure blocking fullbacks will vastly improve the running game. His consistent use of playaction passes, something Mike Solari never used, should give the Chiefs opportunities to take a few shots downfield. Most importantly, his delegation of authority to Croyle to change plays at the line of scrimmage will keep the Chiefs from running the ball right into a wall of nine defenders, as they did consistently the last 2 seasons.

Perhaps the most understated upgrade the Chiefs made was on special teams. Dajuan Morgan and Maurice Leggett are not only good at special teams, they are outstanding. The Chiefs also have outstanding competition at kick returner in B.J. Sams, Kevin Robinson, and Jamaal Charles, one of which will undoubtedly be a major upgrade over Eddie Drummond.

The Bad… Or At Least, the “Wait and See”

Let’s circle back to prediction #2. I had very conservative stat totals for Brodie Croyle (prediction #2). I believe that Gailey will do everything in his power to limit what Croyle does on the field. That way, Croyle doesn’t make mistakes; however, he probably won’t make a whole lot of plays either as a result. Early offseason reports indicate that Croyle’s hard work and efforts have paid off and that has translated into a strong rapport with Dwayne Bowe and a major confidence boost that he never had last season. Realistically, there is still reason to believe that Croyle won’t pan out–this is clearly a wait-and-see situation. (more…)

Under the Gun

There’s a lot to like about Gunther Cunningham. There’s something very endearing about his personality. He’ll swear in front of your kids. He’ll curse and spit at players three times his size. He lives, breathes, and craps football 24/7. Personalities are nice, but sooner or later he’ll have to be held accountable for the defense he puts on the field. Gunther Cunningham’s defense has not been impressive in his second stint and he’s running out of excuses. Every year, he’s had a new excuse. Year 1, his defense underachieved because he didn’t have his players. The year after that, he failed because Vermeil handcuffed him with his offensive approach and lousy defensive assistants. They’ve moved Gunther inside the booth and outside the booth. Surrounded him with his players, and soon surrounded him with better players. They’ve surrounded him with a defensive head coach and terrific assistants. In 2006, they gave him a run-heavy offense that afforded him well-rested players and a favorable defensive environment. Granted, in 2007, he was limited by the fact that his defense was on the field all the time and undoubtedly grew tired, but that should not excuse the fact that Cunningham has yet to produce a defense that he should be producing.

Not to say that he is incapable of doing it, but he certainly needs to prove that he can do it. You can’t help but wonder if Cunningham piggy-backed off Marty Schottenheimer in his first stint as defensive coordinator. The truth is, Marty has built outstanding defenses in Cleveland and San Diego without Cunningham; Cunningham has not built nearly the same kind of defense without Marty. There also has to be some question as to whether Derrick Thomas was one of the main reasons for Gun’s prior successes. His defense was never the same after DT tragically passed.

Gun is an outstanding defensive coach and I’m excited for him to coach our LBs, but I’m beginning to wonder if his role should shift toward coaching LBs and less toward coordinating defenses. It was no secret that when Gun was asked to stay on as Herm Edwards’ assistant, there was somewhat of a philosophy clash–Herm runs a defense that usually features few blitzes and zone discipline, whereas Gunther runs an aggressive, attacking, blitz-heavy defense. I’ve always thought Gun’s use of his corners was slightly odd–he has always favored keeping corners on the same side of the field regardless of the matchup and there have been so many times when he moves corners 10-15 yards down the field–that’s pretty odd for a cover 2 defense, which usually requires corners to harass receivers near the line of scrimmage.

I also question why he continually favors slower strong safeties, when cover 2 defenses demand both safeties to cover a lot of field and to have outstanding range. His brand of safety is a great asset to have because of their physicality against the run, but at what cost? It limits the Chiefs’ ability to run a solid cover 2 and so often, we have seen our slower strong safeties get caught biting hard on playaction fakes or getting beat deep because they were playing too far inside the box. There have been many times when I’ve questioned whether Gunther Cunningham can be a little too aggressive at times.

Much like Solari was ill-equipped to run the more West Coast version of an offense that Herm desired, I’m beginning to wonder if there can ever be a marriage between Gun’s aggressive defense and Herm’s zone-oriented cover 2. This is a question that the Chiefs cannot sit and hope is the right answer, only to find out two years later that they were completely wrong. The Chiefs have given Gunther plenty of chances to succeed in Kansas City and he’s shown nothing thusfar to indicate that he is capable of building anything beyond a slightly above-average defense. The Chiefs will have to make a decision as to whether Gunther Cunningham is capable of fielding a good defense for the Chiefs, but whether he can field a Super Bowl defense given the type of defense Herm Edwards prefers to run. That decision needs to be made sooner rather than later.

Whew!  We’ve finally reached the end of the offense.  Next will be special teams, then defense, then the coaching staffs.  Hopefully they will start coming a little more consistently in the near future, as we approach a month until training camp starts.  Let’s finish the offensive line with right tackles.

1.) Damion McIntosh (Kansas City) - Moving from the left side to the right side for the first time in his career, McIntosh will be expected to be one of the leaders for a young Chiefs’ offensive line.  He wasn’t too pleased about changing spots for rookie Brendan Albert, but he’s a professional.  He was serviceable at LT, so once he gets adjusted to playing the right side, he should establish himself as the class of the AFC West. (4 points)

2.) Jeromey Clary (San Diego) - I hate sounding like a broken record, but here’s another young stud on the offensive line for San Diego.  Clary emerged as a brutal run blocker late last year, but he has a tendency to get beat by power rushers.  However, he’s still one of the best in the conference. (3 points)

3.) Cornell Green (Oakland)- An undrafted free agent who earned a Super Bowl ring (with Tampa Bay), Green looks to fortify the league’s 6th-best rushing attack.  He’s got good size (6′6″, 325), but may lack the quickness to handle speed rushers.  (2 points)

4.) Erik Pears (Denver)- Another undrafted free agent.  He’s tied with former offensive lineman Jamie Brown as the tallest Bronco ever (6′8″)…so he’s got that going for him.  Other than that, he’s had some injury problems, but appears to be the starter by default.  (1 point)

Running Tally:

 San Diego: 35

Oakland: 23

Kansas City: 22

Denver: 20

 No surprise whatsoever that San Diego has the best offense in the division.  Several teams have questions on their offensive lines, and the AFC West features some of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.  This division also showcases the best tight end ever, the man who could be the best tight end ever, and three of the best running backs in the leagues.  The division games should produce several high-scoring affairs, and the AFC West is close to returning as one of the most competitive divisions in football.

 (Side note - why do the Chiefs never, ever, ever reveal “further terms of the agreement”?  Is it because King Carl doesn’t want to show if he got taken to the cleaners on a deal?  I know every contract negotiation is a chance for Carl to show off his testicular fortitude, but it gets old when “further terms” are never revealed.)

Franklin should immediately compete for a roster spot, possibly even a slot position if/when the Chiefs go to a three-wide formation.  He will provide much needed depth at the WR position, and should form a nice nucleus of young, fast receivers with Dwayne Bowe and Jeff Webb.

(I’m reserving judgement on Devard Darling…my initial perception of him is “not good”.  However, I was wrong before.)

That’s two picks signed, and 10 to go.  Can we set the over/under for Glen Dorsey and “number of days signed before training camp” line yet?  I’ll go with two.  Your thoughts?

The Chiefs’ pass rush is going to take a significant downward dive in 2008, barring the emergence of one very good defensive lineman. Chiefs’ fans have done a pretty remarkable job of pretending that Jared Allen wasn’t an important part of their pass defense, but he unfortunate reality is that Allen was a major contributor to the defense and there isn’t a solid replacement on the roster for his services.

Tamba Hali will do an adequate job of filling Allen’s shoes, but he won’t match Allen’s production. First, Hali and Allen mutually benefited off of a each other. Allen getting into the backfield flushed a QB in Hali’s direction, and vice versa. There doesn’t appear to be nearly as disruptive a force lining up on the other end of Hali in 2008.

Hali has also lined up against far inferior tackles as a LDE. It’s no secret that teams place their superior tackles on the left side. In many cases, an offense’s left tackle is light years better than right tackles. While it’s true that a LDE often has to take on both a right tackle and a tight end, that happens with less frequency in pass offenses in the new NFL, where pass offenses are increasingly spreading themselves out and involving their tight ends as receivers.

When a LDE gets a one-on-one against a Right Tackle, a good DE should have little problem finding a way to the QB. I don’t have a whole lot of confidence that Hali will see that same kind of success against the best of the best blockers in the league week after week, snap after snap. While Hali has a good first step, I’m not so convinced that his first steps will be nearly as explosive against left tackles who have terrific footwork, and given his short height and short arms, I don’t have much confidence that he can consistently shed blocks once he’s engaged. I think it’s very difficult to make the argument that Hali will do better at RDE than he did at LDE, and it’s concerning that he could do a lot worse.

What makes Hali’s job even more difficult is the lack of talent opposite him. There is just no viable option at the other end. Turk McBride is more of a tweener tackle than he is a DE, and if he lines up at DE, he has never been a pass rusher. Brian Johnston is an interesting option, but again, let’s keep in mind that the kid is a sixth round pick and as I mentioned in a prior post, we should be careful to avoid “Tom Brady Syndrome” by overrating the potential of low-round picks that scouts repeatedly passed over. The Chiefs are so desperate to fill the LDE void that they’re willing to move Alfonso Boone to the position, even though he’s been a DT his entire career. Yikes.

Hali’s sack totals will not match Allen’s production and whomever plays LDE, his sack totals are going to grossly underperform Hali’s sack totals last year.

Dorsey’s Impact

I’ve heard several fans that believe Glenn Dorsey will close the gap that Jared Allen left. I’m not so convinced, on the passing side of the ball. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge Glenn Dorsey fan, but I’m also a realist. Dorsey is going to have an enormous impact on the Chiefs’ run defense, but he is not known to be a superb pass rusher. His version of pass rushing in the college ranks was to bullrush linemen and explode to the QB. It’s going to be difficult for Dorsey to do the same in the NFL against far superior interior linemen. He’ll need to develop some pass rush moves. I believe that he can, but it’s not going to happen overnight. (more…)