MVN - Most Valuable Network

How Indy Can Win the Game of a Lifetime

Well, it’s finally here.

The most important question of the 2007 regular season, and seemingly the only one that really matters the way these two teams have secured their status in a league of their own, is about to answered. So who’s it going to be? The Indianapolis Colts or the New England Patriots?

It truly doesn’t get any bigger than this, at least in the regular season, that is. No pair of undefeated teams have ever met this late in the season and few pairs have ever had as storied a rivalry as the two about to take the field. What are the chances a 7-0 defending Super Bowl championship team on a twelve-game winning streak would ever be considered the underdog when playing at home against a team they’ve beaten three straight times? And that their underdog status would be justified? You can’t read enough about this game without thinking there’s got to be a typo somewhere, right?

Wrong. The Patriots deserve to be favored and we all know why. We all know what an amazing season they’re having, on pace to shatter who knows how many records, too many to list here, that’s for sure, and they’ve yet to show even a hint of a weakness.

The only problem is the level of competition they’ve faced – sure, they’ve beaten perhaps the best team the NFC has to offer in Dallas, in fact, they not only beat them, they destroyed them, but the rest of their wins have been against teams like the Miami Tunafish and the New York Hang Gliders. While the Patriots have been busy stomping helpless opponents and using them as outlet for their frustration after being caught cheating in the first game of the season, however, the Colts have meanwhile taken on better competition, played in hard fought games and come out of a stretch that included three divisional road games without a single loss themselves. The combined record of the eight teams the Patriots have beaten thus far is 24-34, while the seven teams the Colts have played are a combined 27-24.

So even though the Patriots have earned their status as the four-point favorite by beating bad teams so badly, there’s really no way to gauge how good either team is until they finally meet.

If the Colts are to secure the victory, (which, though I’d assume it goes without saying, I believe they will) here’s what needs to happen:

1. The defense must set the tone early.
The Pats might have the best passing offense the league has ever seen, but they’re still smart enough to know this team defends the pass much better than the run, even if this weakness is not as glaring as it was last season: Indy is ranked number one in the league against the pass, but thirteenth against the run. Call me crazy but I’m expecting the Patriots to come out trying to establish the run first, and it’s up to the Colts to prove they can stop it before Brady starts letting it fly. If the Colts win, they need a big game from both their big name defenders: Dwight Freeney has to pressure Brady, and Bob Sanders must roam the field like a Siberian tiger out for blood.

2. The crowd must make its presence felt.
The Colts have not lost a game in the RCA dome since December, 2005. Expect that dome to be as noisy as it’s ever been, especially when the Patriots have the ball, and in a game as evenly matched as this one appears to be, even if the noise is only enough to force a single unintentional timeout or disrupt a single play the crowd can really make a difference on Sunday.

3. The Colts cannot afford a first half slump.
As we saw against Carolina last week, Indy is, for the most part, a second-half team, and while the mistakes they occasionally make early on in a game are usually minimal enough that they can compensate for them later, this could prove disastrous against a team as dangerous as the Pats. The last time these two teams met, it took the biggest comeback in the history of conference championship games for the Colts to win, and if they start out this game the same way they did last time, the newly rejuvenated Patriots offense might dig a hole too deep to climb out of. If the Colts can keep the first half manageable, however, they should be able to provide a knockout punch later on. Indy has outscored its opponents 127-49 in second halves so far this year.

4. Peyton has to be mobile in the pocket.
The biggest difference between last year and previous failed seasons was Peyton’s ability to move out of the pocket when pressured, buying him enough time to find an open receiver downfield. He did this several times in the AFC Championship last year and all last season, really, and when he’s able to do it, it’s almost impossible to defend. There were a few moments against Carolina when it seemed like he had the opportunity to avoid some of the pressure they were applying, however, and he looked like the Peyton of old. Not that I’m worried he and the rest of the organization aren’t working on fixing it right now, but he has to remember to buy that valuable time when the Pats come-a-blitzing or else it’s going to be a long day for this offense.

5. Joseph Addai has to become the center of attention.
The Colts have to make the most of Addai this game, not just because he’s an exceptional athlete and he’s a constant scoring threat, but because if the Patriots are forced to account for him every play along with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, something’s gotta give. If the Colts win on Sunday, Joseph Addai will, other than the quarterback, have the biggest game out of anyone.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 31st, 2007 at 5:00 pm and is filed under Colts Chat, Colts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.