MVN - Most Valuable Network

Top NFL Draft Quarterbacks: Throw Out the Hype on Matt Ryan

For background on MVN’s rankings, read this post explaining the 8-tier prospect system.

Brian Brohm, Louisville, Top 10 Grade, Elite Prospect
Brohm is undoubtedly a franchise Quarterback, and he’s shaping up to be the steal of the NFL Draft. He can make every throw. Any team that picks Matt Ryan over Brian Brohm has made a bad pick, pure and simple.

Chad Henne, Michigan, 1st round grade, Excellent Prospect
Henne is a phenomenal prospect whose inaccuracies as a passer are mostly a perception created by injuries to his throwing shoulder that Henne sustained during his Senior season. The knocks on Henne all have to do with the fact that his injuries prevented him from reaching the level of college dominance that Brohm did as a Junior and a Senior, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t just as good. Regarding the shoulder, teams would be wise to realize that just because the throws he made as a Senior weren’t fundamentally perfect doesn’t mean Henne didn’t gain critical experience from going through his progressions all year long.

Matt Ryan, Boston College, 1st round grade, Good Prospect
Let’s throw out all the hype on Ryan for a second, and look only at the facts. This Quarterback wrestled the starting job away from the incumbent as a Sophomore, and proceeded to put up a completion % of 62.1, and then followed that up in his Junior season with a % of 61.6. Those are promising figures, but did not win Ryan any draft hype, so he returned for his Sr. year. As a senior, he was BC’s entire offense, attempting 654 passes, but his completion percentage fell to 59.3%, and he was picked off 19 times. This production vaulted Ryan to the top prospect status among NFL scouts. Worried yet? Count me in among the skeptical. Skeptical as I am, Ryan’s body of work earns him a first round grade, and good prospect status. At best, he’s the third best QB in this draft, at worst, the fifth.

Joe Flacco, Delaware, 2nd round grade, Solid Prospect
Flacco has every right to blame Dave Wannestedt for ruining his career if he doesn’t make it in the NFL. There’s no doubt that he should have been pushing Tyler Palko for playing time while he was there, and that at the very least, he should have succeeded Palko. Because Pitt botched the situation, Flacco transferred to Delaware and became the cornerstone of the program there, culminating his career by leading the Blue Hens to an improbable berth in the D-I FCS Championship game in 2007. Flacco has the potential to be an NFL starter, but that potential only earns him solid prospect status. It makes sense for a team to bring him in as a 2nd or 3rd round selection and let him compete for the starting job, but it makes no sense to take an FCS QB at the bottom of round one and just hand him the keys to your team.

Andre Woodson, Kentucky, 2nd round grade, Solid Prospect
Woodson does represent a potential steal pick because he is underhyped, but that doesn’t mean that he should be expected to produce in a tough environment. Woodson’s statistical profile is astounding, and considering the competition he faced, could arguably be put in the discussion with Brohm and Henne for top QB in the draft. However, unlike Henne and Brohm, a lot of scouts just don’t think Woodson will ever make it in the NFL. Given that his performances have been documented on tape for the past 4 years, those scouts are more likely to be right than not. His pure potential alone makes him a good value at the bottom end of round 2.

Dennis Dixon, Oregon, 4th round grade, Fringe Prospect
Dixon overcame a Junior season in which he threw more interceptions than touchdowns to lead Oregon into the heart of the national spotlight, and frankly, when Dixon was behind center, Oregon was probably the best team in the nation. There is a dichotomy between being a prolific college QB, and a great NFL prospect. Dixon’s injury concerns are a legitimate cause for concern, and although the interception totals he threw in 2006 were probably a fluke, he won’t develop properly if he can’t stay on the field. His total body of work is less than impressive, and basically, his closest comparable is Troy Smith who went in the 5th round of last year’s draft.

Erik Ainge, Tennessee, 4th round grade, Fringe Prospect
Ainge is just another guy with an impressive statistical profile, who likely won’t live up to his potential because of injury concerns. In an era where the cliché “practice makes perfect” has never been more true, a lot of potential first day Quarterbacks will be selected as backups because teams just can’t financially commit to a guy with a lengthy injury history. Without that financial commitment, a draft prospect becomes a project, and thus, earns a fringe tier label, even if they have the talent to be so much more.

Josh Johnson, San Diego, 5th round grade, Fringe Prospect
Johnson is an interesting player who was dominant against lesser competition, but not exactly in the same way Delaware’s Joe Flacco was. Flacco’s game impressed scouts who think that in the right conditions, he could thrive. The same is true for Johnson, but we aren’t even sure if those conditions exist at the professional level. Hopefully, Johnson can land somewhere behind an established starting Quarterback, play the role of backup for about three years, and then be the next Derek Anderson or Matt Schaub and end up starting for another team. If he can’t finagle this scenario, he’s headed for the Arena league.

John David Booty, USC, 6th round grade, Fringe Prospect
Because of his background, high school dominance, and mild success at USC, Booty is in the same boat as Johnson in terms of NFL prospects. He does make for a good backup QB prospect. He’s not a serious threat to start, but in a world where every asset gives a team an edge, no matter how small, any team that believes in Booty’s talent can justify throwing a late round pick at him.

Colt Brennan, Hawaii, 6th round grade, Fringe Prospect
Brennan’s arm will be fine at the NFL level, but the touchdown totals in the WAC say nothing of his ability to translate that to professional success. More promising is Brennan’s completion percentage, consistently in the high 60’s or low 70’s throughout his career. Brennan is in the same boat as Johnson and Booty, but ranks lower than them because there is no scouting “floor” on this kid. That is to say that it would not surprise me if he doesn’t make it through his first NFL training camp, even though we all expect him to make a roster as a rookie. Don’t write off Colt Brennan just yet, but keep those expectations under control. He’s fringe, at best.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 23rd, 2008 at 11:25 am and is filed under Andre Woodson, Joe Flacco, Erik Ainge, John David Booty, Top Players By Position 2008, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Matt Ryan, Colt Brennan, Dennis Dixon, Josh Johnson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.