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NFL Draft: Production Vs. Measurables

By Rich O'Callaghan | January 16th, 2008

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It is a great time to be a New York Giants fan, isn’t it? Winning nine road games in a row, including two playoff games, and one against the hated Dallas Cowboys. We have watched Eli Manning grow up in front of our eyes, discovered a great one-two punch in the backfield, and seen a rookie defensive coordinator infuse young talent and veterans into an imposing defense. I was going to begin breaking down individual quarterback prospects this week, but cannot bring myself to do so the week of the NFC Championship being decided at Lambeau field. I decided to start up a little debate instead.

Would you rather draft a productive college player who always made plays on the field but did not fair well at the combine or a lesser known player that excels on all of the tests at the combine?

We see it every year at the NFL combine in Indianapolis, a phenomenon that has become known as Mike Mamula syndrome. This is when a player who was average in college and looks to be a middle round draft pick suddenly puts up ridiculous numbers at the combine, and vaults themselves into the first round of the draft. These workout warriors sometimes make a major impact in the pros instantly, and other times they seem to be out of the league within a season or two.

Mamula was a solid defensive end at Boston College, recording 17 sacks as a junior in 1994, and he declared for the draft early. He was able to have an amazing combine before the 1995 draft, tying offensive tackle Tony Boselli with the most reps of 225lbs on the bench press and running the 40 yard dash in 4.63 seconds.

The Eagles traded down to the seventh pick in the draft with Tampa Bay to draft Mamula, and gave up the twelfth pick and two second rounders to get him. With the twelfth pick, Tampa Bay drafted future pro bowl defensive tackle Warren Sapp. Mamula struggled through six unproductive and injury plagued seasons and retired as a bust after the 2000 season.

We have seen the Giants draft both productive players from big schools and top flight athletes from smaller schools over the years, with varying degrees of success. As we know the GMen have always made pass rushing and the defensive line a priority, and in 1996, we used the fifth overall pick on productive but slow defensive end Cedric Jones from Oklahoma. Jones was the all-time sack leader at a major univeristy, but he struggled to adjust to the pro game and was released following the 2000 season.

Meanwhile, during the second round 2003 draft the Giants took a chance on a defensive end with great measurables, who played against inferior competition at Troy State. The fans were surprised when they heard the name Osi Umenyiora’s name called on draft day, but as we all know, he has turned into perennial pro bowl candidate.

During the 2007 NFL Draft, the Giants selected University of Texas cornerback Aaron Ross with the 20th overall selection of the draft. Ross won the Jim Thorpe Award, which is awarded to the top defensive back in college football following the 2006 season. He also won a national title in 2005, so he clearly had big game experience at a major university. He fell to the 20th pick in the draft, because he did not time particularly fast in the 40-yard dash at the combine, but I think we have all been impressed by the direction Ross’s career is going in during his rookie season.

We constantly see productive college players from big time schools, who have won multiple awards and have been named to All-American Teams slide in the draft because of a poor combine. DeMeco Ryans was an All-American at Alabama and the SEC Defensive Player of the Year in 2005. He fell into the second round of the 2006 NFL Draft after running a slower time at the NFL combine, but went on to win the 2006 Defensive Rookie of the Year with the Houston Texans. There are countless other examples of this.

I personally feel that NFL teams put much too much emphasis on the NFL combine, especially the 40-yard dash. How often does an NFL player run straight ahead 40-yards in a full sprint? How much of a difference can it really make on the field if a corner runs a 4.33 instead of a 4.46? We are talking about tenths of a second here.

I have always been a fan of drafting a player that produced at a big name school in a major conference in the NFL draft, especially in the early rounds. These players understand playing on a big stage and have faced the top competition in the country. If a player produced in the ACC, Big 12, Big 10, SEC or Pac 10, I feel there is a greater chance they will develop into a productive NFL player. Games are won on the field, not in the weight room or on the track, and I would rather have a player on my team that has proved themselves against top flight competition than a workout warrior any day.

Obviously, drafting a player that has big game experience on the college level and tests well at the combine is ideal. That is not what this post is about and I know if I didn’t mention it, it would be brought up in the comments section.

What do Giants fans think? Should a GM select a player who has more strength and speed but has not been very productive during their college career over a player that does not stand out at the NFL combine but has produced on the field at the college level?

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 at 12:02 pm and is filed under 2008 NFL Draft, Aaron Ross, Osi Umenyiora, Jerry Reese. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

31 Responses to “NFL Draft: Production Vs. Measurables”

LMDM says:

January 16th, 2008 at 12:39 pm

Football player over workout warrior anyday!
Bigblue2dend says:

January 16th, 2008 at 12:44 pm

So in that case Rich, who do you see the G-MEN drafting in the first round this year?
Brandon Buchanan says:

January 16th, 2008 at 12:48 pm

I agree, there is a lot of emphasis put on the combine, but it is a good thing. It does put other guys on the radar, that might not have been taken at all. A workout warrior just tells me (for the most part) that he can spend the money to hire a trainer, and put together a few months of hard work to get reayd for the combine. A football player has put together several years to get to that point. Often times, you can see the difference.

I would hope JR looks for guys that have a deep “body of work” at big time schools, as well as standouts and smaller schools. You never wanna glance over a Jerry Rice, Osi, etc.
smithers says:

January 16th, 2008 at 12:55 pm

I think its important that the player your looking at had a good collage career because it shows he can play the game and i do think the bench press is the most important thing in the combine because it shows ware there at strength wise but for the 40 is like you said how offten do you run in a straight line and 3/4 of the kids coming in can fly anyways or they wouldnt have played collage football..
Ken says:

January 16th, 2008 at 1:03 pm

I think JR has done a great job finding guys with great football instincts. Kiwanuka, Tuck, Michael Johnson, Gerris Wilkinson, Gibril Wilson, and other draft picks are always around the ball. These guys have intangibles that cannot be taught. Speed and strength can be manipulated to an extent. I think it says something if a guy can put together a strong combine because it shows work ethic, dedication, and effort. However, being able to find guys who just flat-out play football is something that requires the same intangibles that are found in the players. JR has great instincts and has shown that a textbook can’t be followed when finding productive talent.
smithers says:

January 16th, 2008 at 1:03 pm

sorry COLLEGE i did not go spelling real bad..
Rich O'Callaghan says:

January 16th, 2008 at 1:45 pm

Bigblue2dend -
One thing I love about the current Giants roster is the great ammount of depth. We are deep at nearly every position right now, which is a great problem to have. I will write more about this down the line, but I think we have three options we can address in the first round this year - Offensive Tackle, Linebacker, and Cornerback.

Offensive Tackle is a deep and talented this year, and there are a lot of players who will be selected during the first two rounds or so - Jake Long, Sam Baker, Ryan Clady, Michael Oher, Jeffery Otah, and Anthony Collins. I was thinking the GMen should go in this direction in the draft at first, moving Diehl back to guard and making Seubert the top reserve interior lineman. However now the offensive line seems great and Whimper did a good job filling in for a dehydrated Diehl against Tampa, so now I am thinking we should look at either corner or linebacker in round 1. I will get into this later though.
Bill B says:

January 16th, 2008 at 1:55 pm

Combine is overrated… especially the 40. Maybe they should have the guys run the 40 in full pads… would be more realistic. Also the bench press. When do you ever lay on your back and push someone off of you in football? Only if you got knocked off your back. And the Wonderlic test is a waste too. But, when there is $$ involved, people want to quantify risk and they do so with meaningless stats that they can fall back on in case their investment doesnt work out.
fdel says:

January 16th, 2008 at 1:55 pm

My memory isn’t what it used to be but I remember guys from great programs that didn’t do so well. I think both Jacobson and Glover were out of Nebraska and of course more recently we have Joseph/Miami and Dayne/Wisconsin. After the last draft results Reese gets a pass from my criticism.
Frank says:

January 16th, 2008 at 2:04 pm

Rich,

Nice article. The way I see it there are four categories for discussion. “Football” guys who played well in the NFL.(Ryans in your article) “Football” Guys who flopped. (Jones in your article) “Workout warriors” who have done well in the NFL ( Not sure if Osi fits, because from what I understand he was pretty good at a small school, which is a seperate discussion..see Sean Morey vs Jerry Rice) and work out warriors who flopped (Mamula). I guess what Im looking for are guys who didnt necessarily play well in college, had great combines, and went on to be great pros. Im sure there are plenty of examples, but Im blanking….
gianthinker says:

January 16th, 2008 at 2:06 pm

I’d rather draft a productive college player who always made plays on the field. Its about how you play football not how you measure out.
Icculus says:

January 16th, 2008 at 3:10 pm

4 days until the NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME and you’re posting another article about the draft?!?!? There’s a million things to write about with the Giants right now, save the draft talk until February 4th at the earliest.
Rich O'Callaghan says:

January 16th, 2008 at 3:34 pm

Icculus -

If you have seen any of my previous posts, which you clearly have not, I write about off season activities.

As I stated in my post, my plan was to start breaking down individual prospects this week, but I did not want to do that with the NFC Title Game this weekend.

That is why I wrote a piece on the draft that would get some opinions flowing in the comments section and some conversation going on the topic above.

The other writers on this site have done a fine job covering the NFC Title Game on Sunday. Feel free to read their articles to get you fix. Thanks for your feedback.
Law of Taylor says:

January 16th, 2008 at 3:36 pm

Good article, but I think without question players who have proven themselves on the field as opposed to those who have proven themselves in the weight room.
I’d also like to hear what you think of Reese as a GM. I have read you guys think he is a “position-filler”, and quite frankly I think that’s an understatement. To me, Reese is a genius. I know people will say its too early to say that, and that you have to wait 3-4 years before analyzing a draft class, but this guy has put impact players on the field in their first year.
Which brings up another point, these rookies are making an impact, which is a credit to being coached properly as well. I have never felt so comfortable with the Giants front office.

And lcculus, I’d rather read an article of substance than one that reiterates the story-lines of the week.
Dave says:

January 16th, 2008 at 4:09 pm

FWIW, I think we need to get a CB or safety in round 1. I cannot put up with another year of Butler at safety, and unless they put M. Johnson on the field next year (which they should, in my opinion), we need a roving ballhawk out there to protect the deep middle of the field. Now, I like C. Webster (right now), but still think we need to draft a bookend for Aaron Ross early in the draft. Sam Madison is not getting any younger, Dockery is always hurt, RW makes me nervous (in spite of his game-winning INT’s), and can’t say about Underwood or McPherson (haven’t seen them on the field much, if at all). Save LT for round 2 or 3, see who drops. Diehl is doing well, no urgency there.
danny dan says:

January 16th, 2008 at 4:12 pm

i agree with icculus.. i just cant concentrate (i tried) on anything other than Sunday. I LOVE THIS GAME! i’m sure i’ll be all over your articles after the 3rd….. I actually fell in love with this site after getting all the best news about Free agency BEFORE any other site had it… I hope you guys will keep that going this offseason.
Rich O'Callaghan says:

January 16th, 2008 at 4:34 pm

Danny Dan -
We will definately keep up the information on free agency and the draft all offseason long. I understand how hard it is to think about anything other than this Sundays title game, this is the main reason I did not start breaking down prospects.

Dave - I think Michael Johnson will be starting next season, but we will definatley need some safety depth. The problem with this draft class is there is little or no safety depth. Kenny Phillips is a ballhawk, but he will be a mid first round pick. After him, the safety class is very weak.

As for cornerbacks, Aquib Talib has talent, but he and Michael Jenkins should be gone. There is some decent depth at corner with Terrell Thomas, Brandon Flowers, Leondis McKelvin, Tracy Porter, and Jack Ikegwuonu. Some of these players may be intreguing…I like McKelvin’s return ability.

I think we should let Kavika Mitchell walk in free agency, and draft a true weakside linebacker, and allow them to battle it out with Wilkenson for the starting job. A player that I really like is USC’s Keith Rivers.
(518) LOU says:

January 16th, 2008 at 5:29 pm

Rich
(518) LOU says:

January 16th, 2008 at 5:45 pm

Rich
I feel that it is necessary to be deep in several positions. Letting Kavika Mitchell go i don’t think would be a good move. I understand getting younger is a main concern in this era of free agency and player movement is just to inconsistent. I think depth at a position that has been marred in injury the last few years around the league. Because lets face it there are not a lot of good healthy not prone to injury players out there. You saw that his year with INDY and their D-line. Freeney was out and they lost a number opportunities of potential sacks during the last game with San Diego.
I too like Keith Rivers he plays in that NFL type of defense. However USC has a safety Darnell Bing which was a Thorpe finalist. I feel that the kid would be a wonderful compliment especially when your talking about defensive coverage schemes that need a safety to play in cover 2, cover 3, cover 4, out of nickel, dime and quarter packages. I also think that Darnell could be as good if not better than
(518) LOU says:

January 16th, 2008 at 5:49 pm

Rich
I feel that it is necessary to be deep in several positions. Letting Kavika Mitchell go i don’t think would be a good move. I understand getting younger is a main concern in this era of free agency and player movement is just to inconsistent. I think depth at a position that has been marred in injury the last few years around the league. Because lets face it there are not a lot of good healthy not prone to injury players out there. You saw that his year with INDY and their D-line. Freeney was out and they lost a number opportunities of potential sacks during the last game with San Diego.
I too like Keith Rivers he plays in that NFL type of defense of Pete Carroll. However USC has a safety that I like by the name Darnell Bing which was a Thorpe finalist. I feel that this kid would be a wonderful compliment especially when your talking about defensive coverage schemes that need a safety to play in cover 2, cover 3, cover 4, out of nickel, dime and quarter packages. I also think that Darnell could be as good if not better than and reminds of a guy that can be converted to a linebacker like Brian Urlacher.
FactCheck says:

January 16th, 2008 at 6:43 pm

The Cedric Jones pick was dubious from the get go becasue *his own college coach* told the news media that he didn’t think Jones had what it took to be successful in the NFL. He said that Jones was too slow, took too many plays off and was poor against the run. The Gs draft him and guess what… he was too slow, took too many plays off and was poor against the run. There is another category of player that you don’t mention and that it is, players who take time to adjust to the NFL but can become solid (maybe even superlative) players with good coaching. I think Ron Dayne is such a player… the Gs drafted him to be a punishing bullwark and used him like one. They gave up on him and he has since resurrected his career in places like Denver and (more recently) Houston where he is not used as a between the tackle runner and has shown that he can be a solid contributor.
FactCheck says:

January 16th, 2008 at 6:47 pm

If you are going to give Reese credit for drafting rookies that are making an impact, you also have to give credit for Coughlin and his staff for developing these rookies for the transition to the NFL and working out the kinks in their game. For example, Bradshaw is now much better in picking up blitzes, Boss is much better at shedding LBs at the line and Ross and Johnson are doing a much better job of playing the ball.
gman24 says:

January 16th, 2008 at 7:27 pm

well in the early rounds you want to pick the big names, however picking work out warriors in the late rounds and make them a project could pay off huge.
kj says:

January 16th, 2008 at 7:30 pm

man predicting a draft is so insane because i feel its partially instinct or the eye for talent to be able to have successful drafts… like this years giants fdraft for instance what were the things reece was looking for, or any of the patriots drafts, and heres a production vs skill vs instinct thing … brandon jacobs … who was he in college he had what 1 year as a starter or was it 2 but accorsi took him on just the size of him and so far its been a great choice, another one is strahan and as u mentioned osi both went to small schools and it looks like osi’s gonna be on pace to beat strahans sack record if he stays healthy and might do it faster but on the flipside theres tuck from ND and grant (even though we let him get away) vs ward from ottawa (is that suny ottawa) and he was let go by the jets first

anyway my point is its mostly instincts in my opinion, and if you don’t have them then u well lets say pick tedd ginn over brady quinn or pick mario williams over reggie bush (which worked out better so far thats debatable but i think the mere pick of bush surged them to the playoffs) so lets hope reece trusts his gut if thats what he used in this years draft

to answer the blogs question i would always take production over combine but look at dwayne jarrett for example, most of us on here wanted him but what has he done he’s not even on game day rosters … but he was great in college, hell i even said that kids gonna be awesome in the pro’s but thank god i’m not helping in this years draft so my pick is instict anyone want to debate and throw that one around
Donovan says:

January 17th, 2008 at 8:02 am

Rich-
Keep the Draft information coming.
Rich O'Callaghan says:

January 17th, 2008 at 10:02 am

(518) Lou -
Darnell Bing was the 4th round pick of the Oakland Raiders in 2006 and is now on the Jets practice squad.
kingly-1 says:

January 17th, 2008 at 12:05 pm

Thanks for bringing this debate up. I think this is exactly where the G-men have a distinct advantage over most teams; especially over NFC East teams. JR came into the Giants organization as a player scout, so he already has the instincts and experience needed to pick the right guys; as evidenced by the now historic 2007 Giants draft class. The one aspect of his draft strategy I like the best is knowing when to pick players. He could have used a 3rd or 4th rounder on Bradshaw, but he was smart enough to know that he would slide due to the NFL pressing the behavior issue so hard. This guy is a scouting genius and I’m glad to see the fans are finally reconizing it.

In terms of the debate on hand, I think you need a bit of both work-out warriors/lesser known players and big school players. Let’s take a look at this past draft and what they did while in college:

A. Ross - Big school, consistent producer
S. Smith - Big school, consistent producer
J. Alford - Big school, consistent producer
Z. DeOssie - Small school, but big fish in a small pond
K. Boss - Small school, but big fish in a small pond (Senior season was injury plagued, so he was a risk which is how he slid to the 2nd day)
A. Koets - Small school, but great footwork for a lineman

Now let’s discuss the two 7th rounders in more detail:
M. Johnson - Big school (Arizona) but inconsistent on-field production; risky but JR took a chance on the kid due to his size (6′2″) and speed. With good coaching, this kid is on the same level or maybe even better than our starter - Butler.
A. Bradshaw - Medium sized school (Marshall) and a consistent scorer. He scored over 22 TDs in his final season, but got caught stealing a PS2 from one of his Dorm mates. Somehow that made him slide to the 7th round where JR gambled on him. Looks like a good bet to me…

My point here is that you have to diversify your picks. Get the big school guys early since they are so well known, then take risks on small school guys and talented players with behavior issues who are looking to turn their lives around. Just like the stock market, some stocks soar and others plummet, but as long as you aren’t overinvested in any one area (i.e Cincy with trouble makers), you can withstand the ups and downs of the market. That seems to be the method JR used last draft and as the old adage goes, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.
MTLGiant says:

January 17th, 2008 at 12:19 pm

I don’t know what JR’s criteria for draft are but if the 07 draft is any indication, don’t change.
RsH says:

January 17th, 2008 at 11:31 pm

Wasn’t Cedric Jones blind in one eye?

IMO, go for a DB in the first round. If the CB from Central Florida or Kansas aren’t there, draft Rivers, LB out of USC.
Click Clack says:

January 18th, 2008 at 3:11 am

Although JR had a very good draft last year lets not label him a genius just yet. If he’s able to duplicate what he did in last years draft then the Giants are going to be good for quite some time. Definetely should go for DB or LB whoever in round 1, preferably a playmaker at either position. Michael Johnson should be starting right now, not because he’s that good but because Butler is that bad. Did you see his attempt to tackle Marion Barber on his 36 yd run. Just awful, he can’t cover, tackle or catch(i lost track of how many ints he’s dropped for the year already). Tough call on Mitchell, was playing really well before getting injured in the Patriot game. I guess if they drafted a LB you could let him walk, Wilkinson is there and he’s ok. Hopefully the light bulb went on for Webster, my fingers are so crossed.
john sullivan says:

January 18th, 2008 at 6:31 pm

Just wanted to thank you guys for a great NYG site. I appreciate all the time you guys put into this and the fact that it is free is a real bonus, particularly when you compare it to a site like “Inside Football” which bills itself as being for “The Best Informed Giants Fan” ( i.e. read what a crock!) and which charges outrageous sums for what amounts to subjective analysis and really is drivel. Cant imagine what motivates some people to turn over their hard earned money for what amounts to nothing more than lousy subjective analysis. Anyway, I really appreciate what you guys do. I’m a big fan: keep up the great work. It is really appreciated.