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The Ramifications of a Good Draft: Analyzing and ranking teams’ first round draft picks since 2000 (continued)

This post is a continuation from the post with the same title below.

2. Stand-outs
Carolina Panthers: The Carolina Panthers first round draft record has been consistently above average. With little fanfare, they’ve amassed starter-worthy talent almost every year. Only Rashard Anderson, drafted eight years ago, stands out as a bust. Dan Morgan’s only fault is his unexpected propensity for concussions. Apart from those two, the Panthers have done an excellent job picking out talent from all areas of the first round.
Busts → Rashard Anderson (2000)
Underachievers → Dan Morgan (2001)
Starters → Jordan Gross (2003), Chris Gamble (2004), Thomas Davis (2005), DeAngelo Williams (2006), Jon Beason (2007)
Stars → Julius Peppers (2002)

Dallas Cowboys: Begrudgingly, you have to give credit to the Dallas Cowboys for their solid first round drafts. None of their players have busted out of the league, and with the exception of two recent (and still relatively unknown) additions to a deep defensive front seven, the Cowboys have drafted nothing but solid starters and pro-bowlers since 2000. Though Roy Williams more overrated than the 2000 stock market, Terence Newman and Demarcus Ware are stars you can build a formidable defense with.
Busts → N/A
Underachievers → Bobby Carpenter (2006), Anthony Spencer (2007)
Starters → Marcus Spears (2005)
Stars → Roy Willliams (2002), Demarcus Ware (2005), Terence Newman (2003)

Buffalo Bills: The Bills inched up from a three ranking to a two based on two criteria: first that they are picking better talent now than they were before, and second that I believe Donte Whitner and Marshawn Lynch have a significant future in the league. Unfortunately, the Bills have never been able to address their dire need for a franchise quarterback since Jim Kelly retired more than ten years ago (he was succeeded by Todd Collins, fyi). My Bills fan friend wanted so desperately for J.P. Losman to be the long-term solution, but for now, the solid first round talent that gets hauled up to Buffalo will remain hankering for a stable and capable signal caller.
Busts → Erik Flowers (2000), Mike Williams (2002)
Underachievers → J.P. Losman (2004), John McCargo (2006)
Starters → Lee Evans (2004), Donte Whitner (2005), Marshawn Lynch (2007)
Stars → Nate Clements (2001), Willis McGahee (2003)

Kansas City Chiefs: Another surprise entry to this list is the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite two busts in the early 2000s and only six first rounders in eight years (shaaame), the Chefs are getting their act together and pulling in some talented players on both sides of the ball. Larry Johnson is one of best running backs this side of 2000, Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali are emerging as above-average defenders, and Dwayne Bowe looks like the all-pro WR the Chiefs have been looking for all these years.
Busts → Sylvester Morris (2000), Ryan Sims (2002)
Underachievers → N/A
Starters → Derrick Johnson (2005), Tamba Hali (2006), Dwayne Bowe (2007)
Stars → Larry Johnson (2003)

New York Jets: Of all the teams to get the two-nod…I definitely would not have guessed the Jets were so successful in the first round. No legitimate busts, though Jet fans I know love to hate on Anthony Becht, Gang Green seem to find solid starting material every year. And they’ve enjoyed a gluttonous eleven first round picks in the last eight drafts. Yet the Jets can’t seem to translate their first round successes onto the playing field, and a whopping zero of their four stars remain on the team.
Busts → N/A
Underachievers → Chad Pennington (2000), Anthony Becht (2000), Dewayne Robertson (2003)
Starters → Bryan Thomas (2002), Nick Mangold (2006), D’Brickashaw Ferguson (2006), Darrelle Revis (2007)
Stars → John Abraham (2000), Shaun Ellis (2000), Santana Moss (2001), Jonathan Vilma (2004)

1. The best of the best (of the best, sir!)
Baltimore Ravens: Since Baltimore joined the league in 1996, they have provided a textbook example of a team that builds through the draft. Before 2000, they have enjoyed first round successes like Ray Lewis (1996), Jonathan Ogden (1996), Peter Boulware (1997), and Chris McAlister (1999). While the Ravens’ drafts pre-2000 were spectacular, their continued success in the league is a direct result of their ability to continue to pull in (and retain) talent at the highest level. The team mortgaged four years of its future on the arm of Kyle Boller, and his underachievement has probably cost them multiple Super Bowl trips. Now the franchise rests on new QB Joe Flacco’s shoulders, can he take the team where Kyle Boller could not?
Busts → Travis Taylor (2000)
Underachievers → Kyle Boller (2003), Mark Clayton (2005)
Starters → Haloti Ngata (2006), Ben Grubbs (2007)
Stars → Jamal Lewis (2000), Todd Heap (2001), Ed Reed (2002), Terrell Suggs (2003)

Indianapolis Colts: Hands down, the Colts are the best team on draft day, particularly in the first round. Bill Polian wins multiple NFL Executive of the Year awards for a reason. Since brought in to turn the team around from a 3-13 finish in 1997, he has drafted the players you see below, plus first round studs like Tarik Glenn (1997), Peyton Manning (1998) and Edgerrin James (1999). You wonder why the Colts continue to rack up double digit wins? Look no further than it’s performances in round one of the NFL draft.
Busts → N/A
Underachievers → N/A
Starters → Rob Morris (2000), Marlin Jackson (2005), Anthony Gonzalez (2007)
Stars → Reggie Wayne (2001), Dwight Freeney (2002), Dallas Clark (2003), Joseph Addai (2006)

New England Patriots: Patriots front office executives are the envy of the entire league (just ask the Giants, who offered VP of Player-Personnel Scott Pioli their GM job twice). Not only are the Patriots the best team in free agency, but they are among the best on draft day as well. Their model is simple: draft the basic necessities like offensive and defensive linemen, and add specialty players like WRs from the free agent market. Sounds simple, but keep in mind it also requires hall-of-fame coaching and quarterbacking. Most teams just aren’t that lucky.
Busts → N/A
Underachievers → Daniel Graham (2002), Brandon Meriweather (2007)
Starters → Ty Warren (2003), Benjamin Watson (2004), Laurence Maroney (2006)
Stars → Richard Seymour (2001), Vince Wilfork (2004), Logan Mankins (2005)

Pittsburgh Steelers: It’s not surprising that another AFC powerhouse team like the Pittsburgh Steelers excel in the first round. One thing I particularly like about the Steelers draft strategy is continuity: they stick to their guns and keep their first round pick every year. Of all the players on their list, Santonio Holmes was hardest to grade: he had almost one thousand yards on just 52 catches with eight touchdowns last season. Those are solid numbers for a second year wideout, but I can’t shake this feeling that Steelers staff likes him best as a slot option, which isn’t what you’re hoping for with a first round WR.
Busts → N/A
Underachievers → Lawrence Timmons (2007)
Starters → Kendall Simmons (2002), Heath Miller (2005), Santonio Holmes (2006)
Stars → Plaxico Burress (2000), Casey Hampton (2001), Troy Polamalu (2003), Ben Roethlisberger (2004)

San Diego Chargers: You show me a team that drafted LT, Merriman and Cromartie in the first round, and I show you a team that deserves to be mentioned among the best first round drafters since 2000. Add a solid starter like Luis Castillo along with Philip Rivers, a raw QB talent that is starting to come into his own in this league, and I’ll show you a team that will be competing for the Vince Lombardi trophy for the next few years.
Busts → N/A
Underachievers → Sammy Davis (2003), Craig Davis (2007)
Starters → Quentin Jammer (2002), Philip Rivers (2004), Luis Castillo (2005)
Stars → LaDainian Tomlinson (2001), Shawne Merriman (2005), Antonio Cromartie (2006)

Observations: I have three noteworthy observations from compiling this list:

1. Consistently above average first round drafts do not necessary mean consistently above average teams.
Only one of the five teams with a 2 ranking made the playoffs last year. That team, the Dallas Cowboys, was also the only team in that grouping to post a winning record. One of the teams (Jacksonville) who received a 5 ranking made the playoffs last season and even won a game. Teams who received 4 rankings like Green Bay and Denver enjoyed relatively steady success in the 2000s. Does that mean first round successes/failures is unimportant? No, there are other factors at work. I posit two very important non-draft factors for consideration: coaching and quarterbacking. A great coach and/or a great quarterback can overcome poor drafting. So in Denver’s case, a coach like Mike Shanahan can overcome mistakes and cancers like Willie Middlebrooks and Ashley Lelie. And these factors can work against a team. Kansas City, for example, fell apart once Herm Edwards took over the team, despite their best efforts on draft day. The Jets and Bills are both clear examples of this problem: their solid drafts are constantly limited by painfully talentless quarterbacks. Thus we can conclude that above average (or below average) drafts are not guarantors of consistent success because other important factors can impact a team’s chance for winning or losing.

2. But consistently great first round drafts result in consistently great teams.
That said it is clear from the above list that any team that can consistently add spectacular talent in the first round is all but assured to be an excellent team. In a league like the NFL with such a strict salary cap, it is nearly impossible to add franchise talent to your team in any other way but on draft day. Some franchises try to win super bowls by mortgaging their future through backloaded superstar contracts via the free agent market, but those teams fade away just as quickly as they rose. Success in the NFL draft, particularly in the first round, is simply the only way to insure long-term success.

3. Assessing the first round draft as a metric for explaining the current NFC/AFC balance of power.
The balance of power in the NFL clearly resides with the AFC, and the analysis above illustrates that point nicely. For the NFC: two teams received a 5, five teams received a 4, seven teams received a 3, two teams received a 2, and zero teams received a 1. For the AFC: three teams received a 5, two teams received a 4, three teams received a 3, three teams received a 2 and all five who received a 1 were in the AFC. What do these numbers say? The NFC is experiencing a glut of mediocre teams (12 of the 17 teams with a 3 or 4 ranking are NFC teams), whereas the AFC has a few extremely poor teams and nearly all of the most talented teams (8 of the 10 teams with a 1 or 2 ranking are AFC teams).  Sounds a lot like the league we are in today.

This entry was posted on Saturday, May 3rd, 2008 at 9:27 pm and is filed under 2008 NFL Draft, 2005 NFL Draft, 2006 NFL Draft, 2007 NFL Draft, Giants 101 Originals. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.