What does the national media know, Jacksonville had a very good draft
Mel Kiper be damned. I’m sick of the supposed expert bashing Jacksonville’s draft. We get it, you think the Jags made a mistake by trading up for Derrick Harvey and not trading for Jason Taylor, and to a certain degree I see your point. However, Kiper is looking only at the trade from one perspective, and after several days of contemplating Jacksonville’s draft, I’d have to say I totally disagree with him…I think the Jaguars were winners this weekend.
Now, predicting the success of a player far down the road is obviously difficult, but before my spin on Jacksonville’s draft, I’d like to discredit Kiper’s notion that the Jaguars were one of the biggest losers of the 2008 NFL Draft. Let’s just put it this way as far as his credibility is concerned…last year, my friends did a mock draft (I chose not to participate) but one got eight out of 32, the other got nine correct. Kiper got five…and he talks to NFL teams and watches tapes year round, my friends just did it for fun. Kiper has gotten some predications correct, don’t get me wrong, but his misses are blatant, such as when he claimed that Mike Williams would be one of the best players to come out of the 2005 Draft. When fellow analyst Merrill Hodge (I certainly trust his opinion over Kiper’s) disagreed, Kiper said something amongst the lines of “I’ll see you in the NFL Hall of Fame ceremony”, or something derogative such as that. Kiper also said that Ryan Leaf’s attitude would be an asset in the NFL, said J.J Stokes was a surefire prospect and also said that the Patriots would go winless in 2001, the same year they beat the Rams in the Super Bowl. When you are making predictions as long as Kiper has been, you are bound to make some blunders, but these are pretty huge misses and I just want to make it known that Kiper certainly isn’t the end all, be all of draft predictions.
So many experts have the Jags’ draft rated low because they didn’t trade for Taylor. Now, I advocated the addition of Taylor for most of the offseason, and he certainly would have offered immediate help on the edge, but the 34 year-old (will be that age by this season) end is due roughly $18 million over the next two years, so the Jags would be taking a risk on a high paid veteran on the wrong side of 30. I also claimed that Taylor would be worth a 3rd and 5th rounder, and Jacksonville supposedly offered a 3rd, but the Dolphins didn’t budge on their initial request for a first rounder. As productive as Taylor has been, very few players are worth a first rounder, nonetheless many 34 year-olds.
With that in mind, Jacksonville needed to acquire a pass-rusher to help them contend with the likes of New England and Indianapolis. Most teams slated Florida defensive end Derrick Harvey as the third best end after Chris Long and Vernon Gholston, and was projected to go anywhere between five and 15, with the Panthers likely taking him at 13. It’s difficult to tell what goes on in War Rooms before the draft, but it seems very likely that it was Jacksonville who received the call from Baltimore, not vice versa. The Ravens wanted to trade down desperately after Matt Ryan was selected by the Falcons, and the Jaguars were viable partners with them. Out of Cincinnati, New Orleans, Buffalo and Denver (all the teams ahead of Carolina) none of those teams seemed too high on the notion of trading down, making the Ravens to only suitor to pull the trade off with. Not only did Jacksonville manage to get a player who they had ranked very high on its board and filled a need, but the Jags also got the better of the deal, by far. The Jaguars gave up a first, two thirds and a fourth to move to the 8 spot, but still finished 300 points above the Ravens on the draft value chart.
Taking Harvey might have been a bit of a reach, but considering what Jacksonville gave up and accounting for the fact that the Jags likely couldn’t have attained him any other way, it was a solid selection. Harvey is a very good combo end who displays excellent athleticism and the ability to stop the run and rush the passer. As a junior, Harvey logged 8.5 sacks which is very impressive in the SEC. Even more notable are his statistics against the run. Teams ran the ball only 47 times to his side this past season, and they were held to -28 yards, which is impeccable, and he only allowed three rushing first downs against him all season, which came in his last game versus Michigan.
Harvey also displays all the measurable one can want in a defensive end. He runs a solid yet unspectacular 4.84 40-yard dash, but posses excellent strength, throwing up 31 bench-press reps at the combine. At 6’5”, 271 lbs, Harvey has good size and is capable of adding on some more weight. His wing span is 82 inches, giving him the opportunity to bat down a lot of balls. His pass-rush ability combined with his spectacular presence as a run-stopper make Harvey an ideal pick for Jacksonville and he should make at least a small contribution right away.
Jacksonville traded up again in the second round to take another pass-rusher in Quentin Groves, who many websites had Jacksonville taking in the first-round. Groves is a little undersized at 6’3”, 260 lbs, but he has enough speed to make up for it. Groves has run in the 4.4’s and is explosive off the edge. He could add a little more weight, but he is an ideal pass-rusher and despite the criticisms that many have had about Jacksonville taking too many ‘tweeners in the past, Groves offers more than past undersized ends. Groves has production against big time competition (23 quarterback rushes in his last year at auburn) and he is also bigger than Brian Smith, Brent Hawkins or Jorge Cordova were. Groves also is very strong for his size and the biggest knock on him is that he might be soft. However, Groves is a playmaker, something Jacksonville desperately needs amongst its defensive line.
There wasn’t much action in the beginning of Day 2 of the NFL Draft for the Jags because they traded away their thirds and fourth for the two ends. I have heard many complaints about the Jags not bringing in a safety, not adding depth to defensive tackle or the offensive line, but James Harris said it all when claimed that he didn’t know if Jacksonville could add several more rookies with the roster it had. Those were my sentiments exactly when the Jags traded up and lost a majority of their picks. Jacksonville needs players who can contribute nearly immediately, and while I have the feeling that Harvey and Groves can certainly make an immediate impact, it is a gamble already and I doubt that a third or fourth rounder would have a good chance to make an impact for a Super Bowl caliber team.
Later in the draft, the Jaguars added depth at cornerback and on special teams. Thomas Williams, a linebacker out of USC, was selected in the fifth-round, and although some thought that was high for him, Coach Del Rio (a former USC linebacker) seemed to like his toughness. Williams isn’t the fastest or biggest guy, but a 4.6 during his pro day helped his stock out, and his consistency and versatility were certainly factors that attracted the Jags. Williams can lineup inside or as a strong side backer, and he is willing to do all the dirty work for his team. He will likely be a special teams demon right away and could eventually into a solid backer if he progresses quickly.
Trae Willaims of USF was picked later in the fifth and is a long shot to make the roster, but he will make a run at it in camp. At 5’9”, 193 lbs, Williams is a thick cornerback who is a little slow (4.5 40) but he is solid in zone coverage, which is predominantly what the Jaguars run. Teammate Mike Jenkins somewhat overshadowed Williams, and he could be a surprise player later on in his career.
Jacksonville’s final pick of the day was in round seven, as they took Chauncey Washington out of USC. I saw some fans say that it was a wasted pick (is there such a thing in the 7th round?) but the truth of the matter is, Washington could be a diamond in the rough. Plagued with academic problems, the back never saw much action on the field, but at 6’0”, 215 lbs, he combines size and speed (4.45 40). He was projected as a 3rd-5th rounder on some sites, and he has a very high ceiling, which is all you can ask for of a late round pick.
The Jaguars also made some solid undrafted free agent signings that could make contributions on the practice squad immediately. Isaiah Gardner, a cornerback out of Maryland, has excellent size and speed, as well as amazing measurables. Paul Smith, a QB out of Tulsa, is also an exciting prospect, and his accuracy and solid quickness are somewhat reminiscent to a young David Garrard, and he could make a run at the roster.
Overall, it was a terrific draft in my opinion for the Jags. Screw what Kiper or other “experts” said, they really don’t know what Jacksonville needs. Half of these guys have the Jags taking a WR in the first-round…there’s your sign. At the end of the day, the Jaguars added pass-rushers who could help immediately, and got the better of the deal when trading up. They didn’t reach too much, didn’t let the Dolphins screw them over and now have a roster capable of competing with anyone in the NFL…sounds like a good draft to me.
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16 Responses to “What does the national media know, Jacksonville had a very good draft”
April 30th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
I agree
April 30th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
This is my first comment for you Brandon, I read your stuff everytime you write something. This is a great article, and I know Mel Kiper is a great analyst and all, but it seems with him criticizing Jacksonville lately for not taking trading for Jason Taylor- he’s just not seeing the big picture. I know this definitely won’t go down as the best draft the jaguars picked (at least I think), but this was still a pretty good one. I think most people would agree that this was a weak draft all together anyways.
April 30th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Sorry, I meant Brendan, duh.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Thanks Dan, no problems it happens all the time and with people I actually know. we always appreciate comments. John T always stops by and says something, and a lot of times, those comments inspire Tim or myself for other stories, so please feel free to always say what’s on your mind, even if you disagree. I think you’re right on with the draft being weak, and that’s another reason why not having a plethora of selections in it doesnt hurt the Jags, especially because they have limited roster space as it is.
John T, I know you wanted Taylor as did I, but the asking price ended up being to high…the Phins wouldnt budge on that first rounder. I more developed DE would have been ideal, but in the end, this is the next best thing IMO. Hopefully these guys pan out, but only time will tell
May 1st, 2008 at 11:53 am
At USC’s pro day, Chauncey Washington ran a 4.33 40. He’s a pretty fast dude and constantly strives to get better. So like you said, he’s got a nice upside. Only thing is he seemed to be injured at USC often with a hamstring or something. Hopefully, that will not plague him with the Jags.
May 1st, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Hi Brendan, been awhile.
My understanding is that the Jags called Baltimore, and serveral other teams. Baltimore was the only one interested in a trade, and since there were few options for the Jags at that point, the price for Baltimore’s pick was high but not unfairly so. Also, the Jags had Harvey graded as the best every down end who could rush the passer. With that in mind, it’s perfectly understandable that they made the trade. Shack Harris also said that they looked at the guys they thought would be around in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds and decided that it would be very difficult for anybody to make the team, because of the depth that the Jags have.
Of course, none of this means anything. We won’t know how Harvey and Groves are going to fit in the Defense yet. And Jason Taylor may yet be traded by the fish.
May 1st, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Welcome back Rob, I agree with you. It might have been the Jags who inquired about calling up, but they still got a good deal out of it. You are right, we dont know how good the deal will be until later down the road, but value wise, the Jags made out pretty well and filled their needs.
Paul, I actually watched Washington highlights today…he has great quickness for his size. He sat two years because of academic reasons, which isnt a good sign and yes, he did have injury problems too. But in the 7th round, this is a good pick, the potential is there. He could be like a poor man’s Fred Taylor, displaying good vision, quick bursts and finishing plays strong.
May 4th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Brendan, the only thing I worry about is if Wayne Weaver will sell the team to his sons and they will sell it to someone who will bring “our” team to L.A. Hopefully they will have the Raiders move there….and nice touch on the blog…If someone were to tell Mel Kiper that his team was gonna get two of the best pass rushers in the SEC, I would think he’d get the picture…plus Jason Taylor only has two good years left, anyway.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:46 am
The ownership continuity plan for the Jaguars does not include Weaver’s sons at this point.
If anything happens to J. Wayne Weaver, his wife assumes controlling interest in the team. If Weaver does sell his 51% interest, it will be to an outside source. From what has been reported previously, his sons have no interest.
The Weaver’s loyalty to the Jacksonville market would almost preclude that they offer a portion of their holdings t the current partners in order to elevate their status to maintain 51% control over the franchise.
In the end, the Jaguars aren’t going anywhere despite the rumors. Whether Wayne Weaver owns the franchise, or some other individual steps in, the team will stay in Jacksonville. The only thing that could change that is if the league opts to stick with the current CBA, in which case the team simply couldn’t afford to keep up. Since that doesn’t seem likely, the Jaguars in Jacksonville should be secure.
As far as Kiper’s concerned, I take what he says with a grain of salt. I know that many get offended any time a national pundit has critical commentary about the Jaguars, but to be quite honest, they usually don’t have a clue what they’re talking about. The Jaguars draw such little regard from the national media that if one person formulates an opinion, that spreads like a virus as lazy hacks don’t want to be bothered doing much research on the 2nd smallest media market in the NFL.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Just wanted to say I always enjoy reading your articles. I think you hit the proverbial nail on the head with your comments on Kiper. He doesnt understand our needs as fully as somone who has watched the team closely in recent years. And also he knows nothing of how the jaguars got to where they are now. The jaguars have a sound front office and scouting personell, and know when to get rid of and when to take on players. JT is an awesome player and while I would love to see him help us this upcoming year. I would much rather be competive for the next 4+ years with some solid young guys. We have shown we can compete already, and i think this draft and its surrounding decisions are just enough risk versus reward.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Thanks Cory and I agree…I like what we did and what we have done to get here. Kiper talks out of his ass a lot. Taylor might have been a great acquisition and could have propelled us to the next level, but the asking price was too much and we made the next best move. Is that a bad draft? No way.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
OK, don’t be mad at me, I am going to take another side on this.
Your thoughts are well stated, but I think you are over-valuing the Jags overall. They had a pretty good year last season, but they are more than two players away from catching up (in my opinion) from Indy and NE and maybe San Diego (although I put them pretty much on par with Jax. They are more than two players away, especially two guys who it really looks like they reached a little for. The result, no chance to add depth in the third and fourth round. If it were my team I would have held back in my draft positions and taken the best available DE when the time came, Jackson or Balmer would have been solid picks and they would have not lost any other picks.
Second round, Groves could have fallen to them anyway… If not, Patrick Lee would have been a fantastic pick at corner, leaving a third and fourth round pick to still go get another depth/development DE and a decent second tier Safety.
I guess the difference between our views is that I don’t see Harvey and Groves as strongly as you do. Maybe I am wrong. Anyway, it’s going to be fun watching to see how it goes. Let’s have the same conversation in 2010 and see where it turned out!
Bob
May 7th, 2008 at 6:30 am
Bob, I don’t think the Jags are overvalued at all. Those of us that follow the team know where the holes are, and the Jaguars most immediate need was to address the pass rush. They did that through the draft.
The depth that you’re talking about adding in the 3rd or 4th round was probably about as non-existent as it could possibly be for this team. You MIGHT strike on a guy in either of those two rounds, but if you really take a close look at the entire roster, the depth we’d be filling is already there. You don’t need to be in a constant state of restocking when you’ve got one of the younger rosters in the league to begin with. This team has done an outstanding job of addressing depth with their draft and free agent acquisitions.
So, when Shack and Jack were saying that the picks probably would have resulted in landing a guy that might not make the roster, they were speaking from a position of knowing what was available, and knowing what they currently have on the roster. This team has shown repeatedly over the past few years that depth is not an issue for them. Just because the names aren’t recognizable, that doesn’t make it lacking for depth. This draft was all about addressing needs first, and the only glaring need was to make upgrades to the pass rush. They’ve accomplished that hopefully with the first two picks.
The Jags COVETED Harvey. Most teams had him graded as one of the only 2 every down defensive ends in the draft, and had him as a top 10 prospect. What the team gave up to get him was hardly unreasonable if he comes in and provides this team with a long-term solution to their current pass rush woes. The fact that many draft boards projected Quentin Groves to be our first round pick, and we got him in the second round adding yet another weapon to bolster the pass rush is a nice bit of luck for the front office.
This team doesn’t need developmental pick in the pass rush game. They already have 3 young guys in Mincey, Pettway, and Wyche that are developmental that they’ve acquired over the couple of few years. They needed guys that could get on the field and have an impact immediately. They’ve done that hopefully.
If the aggressive moves pay off the way that the team hopes that they will, they will take another step in their progression up the ladder to elite status. If they do not pan out, changes will be made to address that. I tend to think that the Jags made the right move, going after the guys that they really wanted to get into their system, and making the aggressive play to take those stockpiled draft picks and use them to leverage a move up the board. This is especially true when you realize just what a great value we got in landing Harvey without having to give up our 2nd round pick, or any picks next year. Look at the deals other teams made to either land a veteran defensive end in trade, or to move up in the draft. The Jaguars stole that pick.
Nobody will hate you for having a differing opinion, Bob. We’ll just browbeat you into seeing the light.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:49 am
Lol, I see your points Bob and they are valid, but last pre season, the Jags really struggled to cut down the roster to 53 because there were a lot of guys who could have made the roster, you dont see that a lot in the NFL. One reason for that was that Jacksonville had something like 11 picks in the draft and picked up some solid players.
With that in mind, it didnt make sense for Jacksonville to add more depth, because they already have plenty of it. Their biggest questions are DE, S, DT, WR. Receiver has some serious potential and a lot of high picks and money tied up in it, so drafting another receiver makes little sense from Jacksonville’s stand point.
Safety is getting straightend out right now, and defensive tackle should be fine with McDaniel healing.
Thus, DE was the only need they had, and while Harvey was a bit of a reach (like 3-4 picks) he fit a huge need for J’Ville. Groves also fits a need and represented value in the 2nd round, because the Jags were looking at him in the first when they still had the 26th pick.
Overall, adding depth wouldnt really have helped, becasue Jacksonville already had that. So they filled the biggest need with two players who might be raw, but have the talent level to contribute right away. JT might have been a better fit right away, but the asking price was too much and at the end of the day, I still think Jacksonville came up as winners.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:08 am
I thought a fan of my favorite MLB team put it best in the 2006 World Series with is “The Experts Are Idiots” sign from the stands. The Cardinals stumbled into the playoff and stomped on the pedal to complete the year with rings. The Jags had to address the pass rush. D. Freeney has been killing them and they took notice that you have to fight fire with fire. Speed kills and the 1st two picks are excellent burners. Your stat on Harvey’s -28 rushing yards is telling as well. Especially in the SEC where offense is key to taking a title. Like the Cardinals in 2006, the Jags utilized what the league allowed them. When the safety position became unstable, Sammy Knight was brought in and experience won out. The Cards brought in Jeff Weaver for next to nothing and caught lightning in a bottle. Jack and Shack are sharp guys, if an asset they need becomes available, they will pounce. If the Jags don’t read the prognosticators too much, play as well as they did last year and opposing DB’s keep dropping David’s errant throws they can go all the way.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:21 am
That’s certainly the hope. The pundits tend to swing and miss (your baseball reference forced me to retort accordingly) when it comes to giving proper analysis of the Jaguars. Flying under the radar in the national media, or being downright ignored by national talking heads, has become the norm for this team.
Fortunately, wins and losses are not determined by some guy with bad hair getting paid lots of money by some alphabet network to tell us all what he thinks. Jack and Shack are savvy guys that understand the nuances of building a roster. They’ve proven to be very good at their jobs. So, whatever the pundits are saying, it can normally be taken with a grain of salt. When they’re getting paid to make ACTUAL decisions for teams, I’ll listen.
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