5 Reasons the Jets Won’t Make the Playoffs in 2008

1. Loaded Conference - The AFC is front loaded with teams like New England, Indianapolis, San Diego, and Jacksonville which means the Jets will be battling Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and maybe Houston for one wild-card spot. The Jets are going to have to win at least 10 games to even have a shot at sneaking in the playoffs and that may not even be enough. With two games against New England and road games against San Diego and Seattle, the Jets are going to have to play near perfect against teams who missed the playoffs last year.

2. Quarterback Questions - Is Chad Pennington washed up? Is Kellen Clemens ready to lead a team to the playoffs? When will one of the two step up and seize the starting job? Those are major questions for a potential playoff team to be dealing with.

3. Coverage Issues - Darrelle Revis is great, but the Jets have a major hole opposite him. Unless Justin Miller, Dwight Lowery, or somebody else steps up, opposing defenses will be going after the side of the field away from Revis constantly. Beyond that Abram Elam and Eric Smith remain question marks at safety alongside Kerry Rhodes.

4. Defensive End - The Jets have a very average pair of starting defensive ends in Shaun Ellis and Kenyon Coleman. If Calvin Pace and Vernon Gholston can’t generate a pass rush, the Jets will continue to have major issues sacking the quarterback because neither Ellis or Coleman can get after the quarterback.

5. No Long Ball - The Jets still lack a major home run threat on offense. I love Jerricho Cotchery and Lavernues Coles but both work better in the intermediate range and function more as possession receivers than deep threats. Thomas Jones rarely rips off any kind of long runs. Leon Washington has the speed and quickness but will Brian Schottenheimer find a way to get the ball in his hands more this year?

5 Reasons the Jets Will Make the Playoffs in 2008:

1. The Offensive Line: The Jets should have one of the best offensive lines in football next season. Nick Mangold has played at a borderline pro bowl level at center during his first two years in the NFL, while D’Brickashaw Ferguson has been solid but not spectacular. Fortunately, the two young talented offensive lineman will have the best guard in the NFL stationed between them this season in Alan Faneca. Beyond being a major upgrade over Adrien Clarke, Faneca will also provide excellent leadership in the huddle. At the other guard position, Brandon Moore is a very good, consistent player. Damien Woody might be the biggest question mark at right tackle, but he is a seasoned veteran and a good technician who should be able to hold his own. A good offensive line is a key to any success, especially with a young quarterback potentially starting.

2. The Pieces in Place: The Jets have struggled to run the 3-4 because they have been trying to fit square pegs in round holes. Yet, this season they will have a collection of players whose skill sets fit Eric Mangini’s defense. Many people forget how good the Jets defense played the last 7 games last season, especially in their December match-up against New England. With Calvin Pace, Vernon Gholston, Kris Jenkins, and Dwight Lowery in the mix the defense should be even better, especially at getting after the quarterback.

3. Options on offense: Contrary to popular belief, the Jets have a quality core of skill positions on offense. Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are both 1000 yard receivers. Thomas Jones is a 1200 yard running back, Leon Washington is electric in the open field, and Jesse Chatman ran for nearly 600 yards last season. Tony Richardson is a pro bowl fullback. Chris Baker is a very good two way tight end, and Dustin Keller should be a match-up nightmare for opposing defenses. Bubba Franks provides good depth, a big red-zone target, and solid blocking. Brad Smith should make strides in his third year as a full time wide receiver, Chansi Stuckey has all the tools to be a good slot receiver and Marcus Henry has the size to contribute in his rookie year.

4. The Every Other Year Theory: 2002 - Jets win the division. 2003 - Jets go 6-10. 2004 - Jets go 10-6, make the playoffs as a wild-card. 2005 - Jets go 4-12. 2006 - Jets go 10-6, make the playoffs as a wild-card. 2007 - Jets go 4-12. 2008 - Hopefully the pattern continues.

5. Friendly Schedule: After the Jets bye week, they play the Bengals at home, at Oakland, home versus Kansas City, at Buffalo, and home versus St. Louis. There is no reason they can’t win 4 of those 5 games. Even if the Jets stumble out of the gate to a 1-3 record, these 5 games have the potential to put them in great position to make a run during the second half of the season which includes winnable games against Buffalo, Miami, San Francisco and Denver.

Other News and Notes:

- There are still rumors about the Jets signing Ty Law, which might not be the worst thing in the world at this point. Law is good enough at this point to be a #2 corner behind Revis, and unless Lowery is ready to go as a full time player in September or Miller steps up, Law could be the best option.

- Peter King recently ranked the Jets as the 14th best team in the NFL. Not bad for a team that was 4-12 last year, he is confident in their ability to get to the passer with Pace and Gholston…let’s hope so. He had Buffalo ranked number 13.

- Right now, I would say it is a toss up between the Bills and Jets as the second best team in the AFC East. If the Jets get consistency at the quarterback position, there is no reason they can’t be a playoff team. That is a big “if” to have hanging over your team though.

1. The New Wayne Chrebet: The Jets beat writers can’t stop talking about Danny Woodhead, who is the all-time NCAA rushing leader. Woodhead played at Chadron State, which is a Division II school in Nebraska. The guy is a burner (he ran a 4.38), yet he stands at only 5 foot 7, 197 pounds which means he can fit into Vernon Gholston’s pocket. Due to the Jets depth at the running back position, Woodhead’s only chance at sticking seems to be as a punt returner/gunner on special teams. Personally, I think he ends up on the practice squad.

2. Finally, Some Height: There is nothing that Jets fans are more tired of than watching fade balls get thrown to receivers under 6 feet. I think the time for that has finally ended because of the addition of H-Back Dustin Keller (6 foot 2) and wide receiver Marcus Henry (6 foot 4). The Jets may have got a steal in Henry. The guy was a beast last year and has the size to contribute in the red-zone right away. I can see him having something like 17 catches, but 4 or 5 touchdowns.

3. The Chris Baker Saga: Rich Cimini wrote an interesting piece in his blog about Baker’s situation, which sides with the organization. I don’t think there is a major market out there for Baker right now, which will likely force his hand to participate in training camp. He hasn’t threatened to miss any mandatory events. The bottom line is that Baker is the 20th highest paid starting tight end in the league, and had the 19th most catches of any starting tight end…his contract sounds about right.

4. Punter Battle: Yes, minicamp isn’t that exciting when punting is a topic but Jeremy Kapinos has impressed so far. Many people expect him to take the starting job from incumbent Ben Graham this year.

5. Eric Mangini Was on Treadmill: The head coach commented he first saw Vernon Gholston on TV, while running on his treadmill. The Jets were better in 2006 when Mangini was overweight and struggled when he got into shape last year. Personally, I think he needs to get off the treadmill, invite D’Brickashaw Ferguson over for an all you can eat buffet and pick up the fork!

Thomas Jones - Starting Running Back - Jones is downhill runner, who struggled behind a weak offensive line last year. He isn’t flashy or explosive but he is consistent and catches the ball fairly well out of the backfield. He is good but not great, and there is no reason the Jets can’t succeed with him carrying the load. Best Case Scenario for 2008: 1250 yards, 6 touchdowns, 200 receiving yards.

Leon Washington - Backup Running Backup - Washington is the Jets most explosive playmaker, who really didn’t receive enough touches last year. He is best on screens, draws, and working out of the slot or any play that can give him the ball in space. Brian Schottenheimer must do a better job of getting him the ball. Best Case Scenario for 2008: 500 yards rushing, 250 yards receiving, 8 total touchdowns (including kick returns).

Lavernues Coles - Starting Receiver: -A tough receiver in the intermediate area, who has more deep speed than people give him credit for. He has top level quickness in and out of his breaks but lacks ideal size for a #1 wide receiver. Best Case Scenario for 2008: 80 catches, 1100 yards receiving, 6 touchdowns.

Jerricho Cotchery - Starting Receiver - He may have eclipsed Coles as the number one receiver. Similar to Coles, Cotchery is a tough player who runs well after the catch. He had his first 1000 yard season and seems to just be entering his prime. Best Case Scenario for 2008: 85 catches, 1150 yards receiving, 7 touchdowns.

Brad Smith - #3 Receiver - Smith had a chance last year to show that he could transition from a college quarterback to professional wide receiver, and he struggled heavily. He has all the tools and athleticism but needs to learn how to catch the ball consistently and get off of press coverage. Best Case Scenario for 2008: 35 catches, 500 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns.

Chris Baker - Starting Tight End - Baker is a strong blocker and has the best hands on the team. Yet, there are obvious questions swirling around due to his contract dispute. It is in the Jets best interest to have him on the team because he is by far the best combination of blocking and receiving skills of all the tight ends on the roster. Best Case Scenario for 2008: 38 catches, 400 yards, 3 touchdowns.

Dustin Keller - H-Back/Tight End - Keller could be the potential x-factor in the Jets offense this year. The rookie is walking mismatch, and the coaching staff is hoping he can turn into their own version of Dallas Clark. Best Case Scenario for 2008: 44 catches, 520 yards, 5 touchdowns.

The Rest -

Bubba Franks - Blocking Tight End - The Jets need him to block and be a threat in the red-zone.

Tony Richardson - Blocking Fullback - Hopefully can help the Jets short yardage woes.

Chansi Stuckey - Receiver - Showed potential in the pre-season last year, could develop into a productive slot receiver.

Marcus Henry - Receiver - He has the height to contribute in the Jets red-zone package.

The Jets best unit? They have alot options. Personally, I think their best line-up will end up being Coles and Cotchery split out, with Keller in the slot/H-Back role, Jones in the backfield, and Baker at the standard tight end position. In short yardage, Richardson and Jones in the backfield, Franks and Baker at tight end, with Cotchery split out. The speed look, with Washington in the backfield, Coles, Cotchery, and Brad Smith split out and Keller at H-Back.

Brian Schottenheimer needs to find a way to utilize all his players better than he did last year.

In previous years before Tangini took over in 2006, the Jets were used to making first round picks and either turning them into mediocre careers, or trading them away only to watch them prosper elsewhere. ( Farrior, Douglas, Moss, Vilma?) They took the safe pick, not the boom or bust pick. Three years ago, the San Diego Chargers took a flier on a major boom or bust athlete named Antonio Cromartie, a player who missed his entire senior campaign to injury, but showed a wealth of promise. What has he done for San Diego lately? Well, he can be considered the best CB in the league by some experts, but if not then he is definitely in the top 5.

So what does this have to do with Gholston and Keller?

Besides the fact that the last physical specimen named Vernon taken at #6 ( Vernon Davis) still hasnt reached his full potential, the top 5 pick teams ( MIA, STL, ATL, OAK, KC) may have veered in a different direction, looking for players that are a more sure prospect. I know that I cant rationalize Gholston being a bust by what has happened in SF with Davis, or that Keller’s fate lies with the last three 1st round TE’s picked by the Jets (Anthony Becht, Kyle Brady, Johnny Mitchell) who happened to be all busts in my opinion, and probably the opinion of 90% of the Jets fans base. However, its hard to ignore that the Jets went after athletic players that have a tremendous upside.

Gholston is a beast of a man, at 6′4 and 265 lbs, he showed outstanding speed, quickness of his first step, and a great ability to impose his will on the offensive line, even if it was #1 overall pick Jake Long from Michigan. Vernon gives the Jets a player reminiscent of former Jet John Abraham, a very quick but less powerful DE that made his paycheck by punishing the QB, only to be traded to the Falcons after a few seasons of injury. Gholston has that potential to become a 10-15 sack pass rusher. He is THE pass rusher that Jets are looking for, and luckily for him, he will be starting his NFL career on a defense that has been given a major facelift since free agency hit in March. However his work ethic has been questioned from time to time as he has been known to take off games, not plays. He also hasn’t been playing football for more then 6 years of his life, with raises the question of how intelligent he is on the football field. Will his athletic ability translate into punishment on the QB. I would like to think that Brady will find himself on his back next season courtesy of Mr. Gholston at least once. He most likely will find himself worked into the game in passing downs at first until he can adapt to the speed of the game, and learn how to drop into coverage.

Here’s why Gholston will pan out: Darrelle Revis, Nick Mangold, D’brickashaw Ferguson. Regardless of what you think about Ferguson, his poor performance last season was the result of a weak LG position with Adrian Clarke next to him. All 3 first roudn picks have been nothing short of solid, and all 3 have the looks of potential All-Pro, and Pro-Bowl caliber ability. Throw 2007 2nd rounder David Harris in the mix, and you have a stellar group of 1st day picks under Tangini. If Gholston’s head in the right place, he will be not as good, but better. The sky is the limit for Gholston, who if he reaches his full potential, will end up being a better Pro then #2 pick Chris Long.

Im not going to even pretend that I liked the Dustin Keller pick, at least until I saw his videos. I have never been a fan of taking Tight Ends in the 1st round, mainly because of the Jets draft history. However what I saw in Keller is a very large mismatch for Cornerbacks, Safeties, and Linebackers. Keller stands at 6′2, 240lbs but runs a 4.55 and has amazing agility and jumping skills, as well displaying great ball skills and soft hands. He looks much more like a WR then a TE, and he runs more like a RB in the open field, eluding players by making cuts, hurdling tacklers, and diving at the pylon. If the Jets can get over their 1st round TE woes of the past, I expect nothing less then a fantastic career for Dustin “the killer” Keller.

Here’s why Keller will pan out: Safeties and Corners are too small to cover him. Linebackers are too slow. Double teams are unlikely with Cotchery and Coles on the field. You can line him up wide, tight, or in the backfield. Keller offers versatility to the Jets that they haven’t seen. Keller will likely assume a role that is similar to Dallas Clark. His play however reminds me a smaller Antonio Gates, but much quicker. If he becomes anywhere near Gates’ caliber, consider Keller a steal.

The Jets needed a major upgrade on the offensive line. They took care of that by adding the best guard in the NFL in Alan Faneca and another productive veteran in right tackle Damien Woody. They needed to add the proper personnel to run the 3-4 and to move away from players who were clearly out of place in the system. They took care of that by adding Calvin Pace, Kris Jenkins, and Vernon Gholston and sending Jonathan Vilma and Dewayne Robertson on their way for future draft picks.

The Jets were terrible in short yardage last year, and addressed the problem by adding fullback Tony Richardson, blocking tight end Bubba Franks, and power back Jesse Chatman. They lacked a consistent third option in the pass game, who could provide big plays but found their answer by trading up for tight end/H-Back Dustin Keller.

Yes, plenty of holes were filled but filling all of them on a 4-12 team is a tall task. These problems remain:

1. Who is the Quarterback? - My money is Kellen Clemens but he will first have to beat out veteran Chad Pennington in what should be a closely contested battle. The Jets need a guy who can play with some measure of consistency to have any chance of coming near the playoffs this year.

2. Secondary Issues - Darrelle Revis and Kerry Rhodes are emerging superstars but the other two spots in the secondary remain question marks. I wouldn’t worry that much about safety because both Abram Elam and Eric Smith played well at times last year and have the ability to get the job done. However, cornerback is another story. Unless Justin Miller recovers from knee surgery and finally realizes his potential, it could be back to David Barrett or Hank Poteat at starter…which is no good.

3. Defensive End - Simply put, Shaun Ellis and Kenyon Coleman are a very average pair of starters on the defensive line. There also isn’t much depth behind them.

4. Offensive Line Depth - The backups are: Will Montgomery, Jacob Bender, Clint Oldenburg, Robert Turner, and Nate Garner. The Jets pretty hope everybody stays healthy up front.

5. #3 Receiver - Brad Smith will get the first crack at it but if he doesn’t show improvement immediately from last year, than Chansi Stuckey and Marcus Henry could be pushing hard for reps.

The reported undrafted free agents signed by the Jets include running back Danny Woodhead, who is the career NCAA rushing leader. Woodhead played for Division II Chadron State. The upside is that he has 4.3 speed but unfortunately that is coupled with being 5 foot 7 and 197 pounds. He has an uphill climb making the roster, with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and Jesse Chatman all in the mix. The Jets also added Jehuu Calcrick, who is a fullback from Michigan who also specialized as the team’s goal-line back. He might have a shot at making the roster because of how woeful the Jets were at rushing the ball inside the 5 yard line last year. They also signed defensive end Bryan Mattison from Iowa, he led his team in sacks the last two years.

Two veterans who were released were H-Back Joe Kowalewski and backup fullback Stacy Tutt. I am actually a little surprised Kowalewski got cut before Jason Pocsiak did, however Pocsiak is also a long snapper which may have helped him stay on the roster for now.

Baker Still Angry: Obviously Chris Baker wasn’t happy with the Jets selection of Dustin Keller and the prospect of being the third highest paid tight end on the team. He has continued venting to the press about how the Jets have promised to redo his contract, yet still stated that he wants to play out the rest of his career with the Jets. I am not sure where this headed. It seems that nothing imminent is going to happen to remove him from the Jets, yet you would have to think if somebody loses a tight end to injury in training camp and offered the Jets a third round pick for Baker, they would take it. The best case scenario for the Jets is obviously to keep Baker because he is talented player, who is their most complete tight end and their third best receiver. There is no reason Baker can’t remain the starter at the standard tight end position and Keller can’t work in a dual H-Back/#3 receiver role alongside him. The more weapons, the better.

Round 4 - Pick 113 Overall: Dwight Lowery - Cornerback - San Jose State:

After his junior season Lowery was being talked about as being a first round pick, however he had a slightly disappointing senior year which led to his fall. His strengths are his size and his ability to intercept the ball. He recorded 9 INT’s in his junior season, but only 4 last year. Lowery does have some experience in the return game and also played safety in junior college before transferring to San Jose State. There is some concern about his lateral quickness and if he is physical enough to deal with NFL receivers. Expect Lowery to be thrown right into the mix for reps opposite Darrelle Revis.

Round 5 - Pick 162 Overall: Erik Ainge - Quarterback - Tennessee:

Relax Jets fans, Ainge isn’t going to be the starting quarterback this year. Yet, Ainge was a solid pickup in round five but for some reason his scouting report sounded a little too much like Chad Pennington (durability concerns, questionable arm strength, good intangibles, accurate). However, he has good size and put together a very good season last year at a big time program.

Round 6 - Pick 171 Overall: Marcus Henry - Wide Receiver - Kansas :

The Jets finally got a receiver with some height. He does lack ideal speed and has a tendency to drop too many passes, yet he did have a big time season in 2007 and should be able to immediately become a red zone threat. Henry will battle Chansi Stuckey and Wallace Wright for reps but should be mainstay on the active roster because of his height and leaping ability, which is unique to the Jets receiving core.

Round 7 - Pick 211 Overall: Nate Garner - Offensive Tackle - Arkansas:

A big, big guy who is a project player. He had one year of starting of experience blocking for Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, hopefully Bill Callahan can get to him and turn him into a suitable backup.

Round 1 - Pick #6 - Vernon Gholston - Defensive End/Outside Linebacker - Ohio State:

With Chris Long, Matt Ryan, and Darren McFadden all gone the Jets were left limited options with the sixth overall pick. There was no team desperate to trade up into their spot and they knew if they passed on Gholston the Patriots would snatch him up. Overall, it is hard to fault the Jets on this selection. Gholston was the best player on the board and fits an area of need because of the Jets awful pass rush last year. Regardless of how much money the Jets paid Calvin Pace, he is more an all-around linebacker than a pure pass rusher. Gholston is a guy who can get after the quarterback and possesses the speed and raw athletic ability that the Jets sorely lack. A front seven that includes Kris Jenkins, David Harris, Calvin Pace, and now Vernon Gholston is something Jets fan should be highly excited about. I expect Gholston to quickly slide into Bryan Thomas’ starting job and be moved all over the defense as the Jets primary pass rushing threat. The pick makes sense and honestly what else should the Jets have done with that pick? Gholston was the only smart option. The guy had three sacks against Michigan last year and ripped off 14.5 sacks at Ohio State…he can play. Grade: A- 

Round 1 - Pick #30 - Dustin Keller - Tight End/H-Back - Purdue:

This has quickly turned into the pick that Jets fans love to hate. I admit when I saw the Jets traded up I was thinking Devin Thomas or Brian Brohm and Keller caught me completely off guard. The negative of this pick is that it wasn’t likely necessary for the Jets to have traded up and lose one of their fourth round picks. However, don’t sleep on what Keller can bring to this offense. He was drafted to essentially be the Jets number three receiver and I can promise you that Chris Baker’s days are numbered in green and white. Keller is a pure receiving tight end with explosive speed and special athletic ability, who is is a natural complement to the veteran, blocking tight end the Jets just signed: Bubba Franks. Maybe I am giving Tannenbaum too much credit but the problems with Chris Baker have been foreshadowed for a long time. He openly criticized the coaching after the Eagles game last year and then planted the seeds for a contract dispute after the season ended. The Jets signed a veteran guy, who has a high character and is a strong blocker, who translates to being the perfect mentor and complement for Keller. Beyond that, if you aren’t excited about Keller, watch how he runs after the catch and the fire he plays with. Be ready to see a lot of two yard dump offs from Kellen Clemens turn into 12 yard gains. Grade: B- (They could have stayed put at 36 and took him).