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Pats try to avoid the Jaguar pounce

Saturday, the undefeated New England Patriots will host the now 12-5 Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. The Patriots are coming off a deserved and needed bye week while the Jags are riding momentum from an impressive finish to the season so far. The Jags have won 4 out of their last 5, losing to Houston in a game where Head Coach Jack Del Rio rested many of his starters. Of course, the Pats have won 16 out of their last 16, but seemed to slow a bit down the stretch. The Jags also went into Pittsburgh twice this season, once in the regular season and last week in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, and beat the Steelers, something that has never been done before. Patriots QB Tom Brady is undefeated in home playoff games. This has all the makings of a great game, and surely the Patriots will be tested. What are these teams looking to do to win this week? Let’s take a look at some keys and storylines to the game.

One story that made the rounds this week was the Jaguars giving the Patriots some bulletin board material in regards to the Spygate scandal from Week One. Defensive end Paul Spicer made comments after Spygate broke along the lines that the Patriots should have been banned from the playoffs as punishment. Earlier this week he stood by his comments and didn’t back off. The Jags’ website formerly had an asterisk attached to New England’s #1 spot in its Power Rankings, also referring to the Spygate scandal. This all has the makings of bulletin board material for the Pats to feed off of, but not so according to Rodney Harrison:

“Let me tell you something. If you need something like that to get you pumped up for a playoff game, you’re crazy. The playoffs and the intensity of this game, it brings enough excitement and butterflies and all that other stuff. It just comes down to who is more physical, who wants it more, who makes more plays. It has nothing to do with what happened four, five months ago.”

That being said, I’m sure this will be in the back of the minds of Patriots players. They shrugged off Anthony Smith’s guarantee before the Steelers game, but attacked him in the passing game and in the trash talking game. Taking advantage of Spicer isn’t necessarily something they can do, but I’m sure his comments will resonate among the players.

The big focus this week has been the Jaguars’ stellar running game versus the Pats’ so-so run defense. RB’s Maurice Jones-Drew and the ridiculously under-appreciated Fred Taylor combined for almost 2,000 rushing yards this season and are a threat to take it to the house every time they touch the ball. The Patriots are officially ranked #10 in the NFL versus the run, which at first glance is pretty good. This stat is based on total yards per game. However, keep in mind that in many of the games earlier in the season, teams were so far out of the game due to the Pats’ offense that they abandoned the run in favor of the pass. A more telling and worrisome stat is that the Patriot defense is giving up 4.4 yards per carry, which is 26th in the NFL. That’s not so good. At the same time, one has to wonder if that also is a skewed stat. Teams did still sprinkle in runs, even when they were behind. The Pats played mostly to stop the big pass play, which opened up some holes for decent gains by a RB. The Patriots also played the first seven games of the season without Richard Seymour, who was on the PUP list and is still getting back up to speed.

According to Vince Wilfork, the defense hasn’t been out-physicaled. They simply have made mental mistakes, be it through technique or play scheme:

“You might call (dealing with a power running game) a weakness, but I think it’s probably just a flaw on that particular play, where the play wasn’t executed the way it needs to be executed. I think if everybody is where they need to be (and) everybody is playing the technique they need to play then we’re in good shape. If not, then we’re not.”

The Patriots’ run defense has been more susceptible to outside runs as opposed to runs up the middle, contrary to popular belief. Jacksonville can run inside and outside, so the Pats have to be ready for every type of run. The Patriots traditionally game plan to neutralize the team’s strength, so I would imagine that they are going to bring up 8 or 9 in the box and try to force Jags’ QB David Garrard to beat them with his arm. While Garrard rarely threw a pick this year, he also rarely threw a pass. Only Tarvaris Jackson had fewer passing attempts for a starting QB. That being said, I do expect the Jags to try and take advantage of New England loading the box to stop the run. Look for Garrard to try a few play-action passes down the field to his tall receivers for a big play to catch the defense off-guard.

One of the best ways to get the Jags to get away from their ball-controlling ground game is to score points. Lots of points. If the Jags have to score alot to stay in the game, they will have to abandon the run and go to Garrard, who played poorly last weekend throwing two picks (game-clinching scramble aside). The Patriot offense seems suited to attack the Jags’ defense. Their defensive line is big and they rely on the linemen to get pressure and blitz less frequently than the Pats’ last few opponents. The Jags’ strength on defense is stopping the run. Unfortunately for them, the Patriots don’t need to run to be successful. Their secondary isn’t quite as good, though they do have an excellent corner in Rashean Mathis.

The Patriots may employ a similar game plan as they did in the Minnesota game last year. Minnesota’s large defensive line was stellar against the run, so the Patriots decided not to run at all. Literally. Every offensive play was a pass and they tired out the defensive line, blowing away the Vikings. They spread out the defense with a receiving core that was less than stellar. I would expect the same Saturday, but some Maroney/Faulk draws could also be employed. The defense of the Jags is also a little banged up, with LB Mike Peterson and DT Marcus Stroud out, and DE John Henderson hurt with a hamstring injury, which helps the Patriots’ cause.

I was more worried about the Jags before last week’s game than I am now. While they were impressive in the first half, they allowed Pittsburgh to come back into the game, which it did playing a more pass-orientated, quick paced offense, much like what the Pats excel at. While I think Jacksonville will keep it close initially, the Patriots will pull away in the second half and pull out a victory, advancing to the AFC Championship game.

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 10th, 2008 at 8:33 pm and is filed under Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Jacksonville Jaguars, David Garrard, Fred Taylor, Patriots Game Previews, Laurence Maroney, Defensive Line, Patriots Playoffs, Maurice Jones-Drew, Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Predictions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.