MVN - Most Valuable Network

Turning over the turnover numbers

One of the bigger storylines this week leading up to the Patriots/Chargers AFC Championship Game has been the Chargers extraordinary ability to create turnovers. Well, one of the bigger football-related storylines anyway. As in any game played in the NFL, usually the team who wins the turnover battle wins the game. This is the case even more during the playoffs, where each game could be your last, thus making each mistake that much more critical. The teams in the postseason are all great teams and can capitalize on a mistake much better than say, the Oakland Raiders (sorry guys!). For these final two teams in the AFC, it is a case of strength vs. strength.

(All stats were compiled from NFL.com)

The Chargers were the best team in the NFL this year in turnover differential, being +24 in that category. Anotonio Cromartie in particular made creating turnovers his calling card, leading the NFL with 10 interceptions in the regular season, despite not starting the season at corner. He also added another pick this postseason to his total last week against Peyton Manning and returned it for a touchdown. I know, it was called back on a holding penalty, but that was a pretty bogus call. When the Patriots faced the Chargers in Week 2 of the regular season, Cromartie was not yet in the starting lineup. The Patriots, however, are not too far behind San Diego in the turnover differential category, having a +16 mark in the regular season. That was good enough for third best in the NFL, behind SD and the Colts (+18). Asante Samuel again led the Patriots in interceptions with 6.

While the Chargers are the best in turnover differential, the Patriots are the best team in the NFL at securing the football. They lost only 6 fumbles and Tom Brady threw only 8 picks. Backup QB Matt Cassel also threw 1 pick in mop-up duty, but he is unlikely to see any action Sunday (one can only hope). Philip Rivers, on the other hand, threw 15 interceptions in the regular season, though he is listed as Doubtful for the game on the Injury Report. If backup QB Billy Volek starts, he threw one pick in the regular season in limited action versus Tennessee in Week 14. As a team, the Chargers lost 8 fumbles during the regular season.

This matchup of strength vs. strength will likely go a long way to determining who represents the AFC in the Superbowl. Ron Jaworski stated on ESPN’s Sportscenter Friday night that the Chargers will likely drop 8 back in coverage like Jacksonville did and force Tom Brady to be patient and take his checkdowns. If they do this, I think the Chargers will most definitely lose. Brady is patient enough to take what’s available and will methodically move the ball down and score, much like he did against the Jags. If San Diego wants turnovers, then they must try and blitz Brady and force him to make quick decisions. While Tom can also kill a blitz with big plays, I think this is the Chargers best shot at forcing turnovers. The Patriots’ defense also must play agressive and blitz whoever is starting at QB for the Chargers, but only in obvious passing situations. They must first take away LaDanian Tomlinson and not allow him to control the game. Tomlinson’s hyperextended knee will be tested as I’m sure the Pats will hit low. I’m not suggesting cheap shots because one needs to get low to properly tackle a good runningback anyway.

This game will in no way be a blowout, but I predict a Patriots victory by less than double digits.

Go Pats!

This entry was posted on Friday, January 18th, 2008 at 8:15 pm and is filed under Patriots Game Previews, Tom Brady, San Diego Chargers, LaDanian Tomlinson, Antonio Cromartie, Indianapolis Colts, Philip Rivers, Patriots Playoffs, Colts, Peyton Manning, Asante Samuel, Predictions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.