MVN - Most Valuable Network

Where there is no smoke…

The saying usually goes, “Where there is smoke, there is fire.” However, when it comes to the NFL Draft, perhaps the saying should go, “Where there is nosmoke, there is fire.” Bill Belichick has commented on the unique situation the Pats are in this year: they have an opportunity to scout and seriously consider the top talent in the draft, whereas the past few years they picked so far down that they did not put any focus on the top players. I have seen and heard about all kinds of scenarios and possible Pats’ interests, anywhere from Darren McFadden to Vernon Gholston to Sedrick Ellis, and any top offensive linemen not named Jake Long. The Patriots personnel department always do their due diligence when scouting players, so for them to be linked to various selections should not seem odd. It also shouldn’t seem odd that the Pats haven’t been directly linked to a certain player, as GM’s these days tend to keep their cards close. Consider this quote from Chargers’ GM A.J. Smith:

“If there’s a GM who tells the truth during the month of April, he’s making a mistake. I’ve always called it liar’s month. All GMs should be forgiven in April. Please, do not judge any GM in April. Lying is simply a part of our business in April.”

If we take that quote into context and look at the biggest draft rumors surrounding the Patriots, and look at where there has been virtually no talk, maybe we can see that fire where there’s no smoke.

One common belief has been the Pats having a real interest in Ohio State DE/OLB/Combine freak Vernon Gholston. Gholston possesses freakish athleticism and tied with Virginia’s Chris Long for the most sacks (14). However, his effort has been called into question, as one common detractor to Gholston is that he doesn’t give 100% on every play. He turned it on towards the end of the season to reach 14 sacks. The Patriots look for a maximum effort from all of their players, so this would seemingly not fit what the Pats are looking for. Again, all of these connections of the Pats and Gholston could be distracting you from the Pats’ true #1 choice.

Another common belief is that the Pats want to trade back badly, which I believe could be very true. However, do not discount the Pats moving up to grab their guy. I wrote about this possibility in a previous post, which you can read here. This past Saturday on Patriots All Access, a local show which covers the ins and outs of the Patriots, Belichick was interviewed and said that the Pats already know who their top choice is. He said of course that things can change on draft day depending on who gets picked, but the Pats’ #1 choice is set.

Now, we already know that Michigan tackle Jake Long is the first pick overall, going to the Miami Dolphins. The St. Louis Rams are now on the clock, and my gut tells me that they are going for the defensive line now that the top tackle is off the board. They could go for either Gholston, DE/OLB Chris Long, DT Glenn Dorsey, or DT Sedrick Ellis. According to Peter King, the Rams have no interest in Gholston, which brings us to Dorsey, Long, or Ellis. Brett Knight from MVN’s RAMblings had the Rams picking Chris Long at #2 overall, but I think there is a distinct possibility that Dorsey could be the pick. If Glenn Dorsey is chosen second overall, I feel there is a real possibility that the Pats make a move up to grab the true player that they desire: Chris Long.

Chris Long has excellent character and plays 100% every down, every week. He has experience playing in the 3-4 under Al Groh at Virginia, a coach with ties to Bill Belichick. Belichick has probably not had to scout Long too hard because he can rely on Groh to give him the information he needs. With Dorsey off the board, the Falcons might be willing to trade out of their spot, and have already received offers from unidentified teams. They could still land Matt Ryan at the Pats’ #7 spot provided K.C. drafts Ryan Clady. If Ryan is gone, then the Falcons could draft Sedrick Ellis at a spot more favorable salary-wise. There is also the Thomas Dimitroff/New England connection that could help this trade along.

The money involved in a contract may not be as bad as some may think, when you consider this quote from Long:

“Twelve million, $25 million … I can’t spend that kind of money, whatever it is, in three lifetimes, never mind one. I just want to play football.”

Sounds like a Patriot doesn’t it? I truly feel that Chris Long is the best prospect and the #1 prospect on the Patriots’ board, and if he can slip down to #3, I feel we may see some movement from the Pats to acquire him. In my opinion, this scenario is as good as any until we know what the Rams do at #2. The draft has always been full of surprises, especially when the Patriots are on the clock.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008 at 2:35 pm and is filed under Defensive Line, Bill Belichick, Patriots Mock Draft, NFL Mock Draft, New England Patriots, MVN, Mock Draft, Patriot Act, Predictions, Patriots Draft, Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.