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Thoughts from the Dark Side
Look for free agents around the league to break the bank
The talk of the NFL right now is the sheer magnitude of the $50 million contract that Tommy Kelly inked with the Oakland Raiders yesterday. This contract has all the free agent defensive tackles licking their chops as they are going to be looking for comparable or better contracts. In fact, with the salary cap having risen dramatically teams are more than ever signing their own free agents, leaving this year’s crop rather thin. The combination of a thin free agency crop and a rising cap is going to result in much bigger contracts than normal across the board.
John Clayton of ESPN.com addresses the dearth of free agents in this market:
In the grand scheme of things, the success or failures of 32 teams may be determined by the decisions they make during the next week. With so few top free agents available, teams better have, well, a Plan B (or even a Plan C) if they are forced to replace a key player. But it won’t be easy — the dropoff at several positions is incredibly steep.
On a plane heading to a game last fall, I went through depth charts of every team and came up with the rough number of 132 new starters teams acquired through free agency, street signings, trades and the draft. That’s roughly four new starters a team. Any team trying to find four new starters in this market is in trouble.
The reason that those teams are in trouble is the basic economics of supply and demand. The fewer players on the market, the bigger offers they will get. Factor in that more money is available to spend due to the increased salary cap, and the perfect storm of factors have formed for contracts to go through the ceiling, if not blast it to oblivion.
In another article on espn.com Len Pasquarelli opined that salaries were going to be skyrocketing:
The spending spree on players who aren’t exactly household names won’t be limited, though, to just pass rushers.
Look for players to want to get paid, because they know they can. This is going to be a crazy free agent period, and while they may be laughing at the Raiders deal with Tommy Kelly now, it may look like a bargain by the time next season rolls around.
This entry was posted
on Friday, February 29th, 2008 at 1:35 am and is filed under 2008 Raiders Offseason, NFL News, Free Agent Rumors, Free agent signings.
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9 Responses to “Look for free agents around the league to break the bank”
February 29th, 2008 at 3:19 am
True!! Hollar at the logic of Patrick Patterson!! Raider haters beware, when Tommy dominates, Raider Nation will make you pay for your heinous remarks (ESPN! CHRIS CARTER!). Enjoy the hateration while you can!
OakFoSho
February 29th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Guaranteed money = dropoff in performance
Kelly is a beast, no doubt, but most (if not all) athletes seem to coast once they get that big money contract (see: Johnson, Larry).
I wouldn’t count on the same production that Kelly has given the last 2-3 years - but that could be a Chiefs fan whistling in the dark.
February 29th, 2008 at 9:16 am
My initial take on the Kelly deal is that the Raiders got him for fair market value. The length of the deal is so important because the longer the contract is, the less the money per year actually means.
I would think this is a pretty conclusive sign that his knee is fine, and that Kelly’s production will continue over the next few years.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Lets face it, we just broke the bank for 2 guys coming of major knee reconstructive surgery. Someone tell me where the value. The biggest need this off-season is the O-line. Why bother drafting the future of the franchise last year when we cant even protect him, he a sitting duck against any D-line in the league, don’t give him a # give him a bullseye to where on his jersey.
February 29th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
The big problem here is not re-signing Kelly. He has been good at times. The problem is the cost. And I don’t care about how much other DT will earn and that his contract will only be the biggest for a few hours. Kelly’s contract will raise the price on every other DT out there. So saying that other DT will command a lot of money means nothing. We could have gotten Kelly for much less. And now we have little or no money to sign guys that will REALLY help this team. Re-signing a guy who has been a part of one the the worst run defenses in the NFL in recent years to a record contract is NOT the answer.
February 29th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Now it looks like the end of both Rhodes and Jordan to clear up cap space. Initially I was thinking that we would keep at least one of them. Most likely Rhodes. But now they both must go which would clear up about 8.5 mil in cap space. That would mean next years RB would be Fargas, Bush, and Echimandu (unless we drafted Run DMc which would mean we are neglecting other more pressing needs)
Oh and “LD” is someone else. Not me.
February 29th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
It is my understanding that the Packers are looking to trade Corey Williams for a mid-low round draft pick. Which is why they tagged him; so they wouldn’t lose him for nothing. That would be a wise trade and having Kelly and Williams next to each other would make me feel a lot better about the Raiders run defense than I do right now.
February 29th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
LDizzle, we did not break the bank with Fargas. Maybe with Kelly, but not with Fargas. His contract is actually very reasonable. Also, the cap is ridiculously high and the Raiders have plenty of cap space, even after the Kelly deal, to get plenty done. Before the Kelly deal I believe the Raiders were 40+ Mil under the cap, so don’t trip man, this is just getting started.
OakFoSho
March 1st, 2008 at 6:42 am
Sorry for the confusion with myself and LDizzle. I’m the lone OAKLAND fan on the east coast here in Rhode Island. Like the safety pickup but hate the price. Very concerned about two RS’s coming off injury as our only option, maybe this means McFadden is coming. Still have major concerns about both lines. Chris Long belongs with us, he’s not only a great athlete and can set the edge but he’s legacy.
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