April 19, 2008
2008 an eerie mirror to past years for the Oakland Raiders, which way will they go?
My partner in crime here at Thoughts from the Dark Side, Rob recently went on record as predicting playoffs for the Oakland Raiders. I admire his optimism, but don't fully share it. There are eerie parallels to two recent pivotal years in the history of the Oakland Raiders 1999 and 2005. 1999 served as a launching pad for Jon Gruden's Raiders to go on a run that ultimately culminated in a win over the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship game after the 2002 season. On the other hand, the 2005 season was a season that sunk the Raiders deeper into their current abyss. 2008 very striking similarities to both of those seasons, and believe that this year like those others will be pivotal one way or the other.
In 1999, 2005, and now 2008 Raider head coaches were headed into their second year having improved on the year prior. Gruden and Kiffin had doubled the win totals of their predecessor, whilst Norv Turner had only one game better than his predecessor. In those three seasons, Al Davis went free agent shopping to reinforce the teams believing in his coaches. That is where the similarities end. 99 set off a period of Raider dominance and 05 set the Raiders back even further. 2008 has all the makings of going one of those two directions.
1999
Jon Gruden was in his second year as a Raider coach. After playing quarterback roulette the previous year, the Raiders brought in a high priced free agent quarterback from Kansas City by the name of Rich Gannon. They also signed Zach Crockett, Darrien Gorden, and Michael Husted (the reason we would later draft Sebastian Janikowski). Gruden went 8-8 in '99 and used that as a springboard for division titles in '00 & '01.
2005
Norv Turner was in his second year. He hadn't doubled the previous year's win total as Gruden had in 98. (Ironically enough, they were both taking over after 4-12 seasons.) Al Davis again went shopping and acquired alleged all everything wide receiver Randy Moss in a trade, and signed both running back LaMont Jordan and defensive end Derrick Burgess. This season started out with the team under-achieving and only imploded from there with Norv being sent packing at the end of the year. The Raider fortunes only declined further the following year.
2008
Lane Kiffin is in his second year as head coach. Ironically enough, he duplicated Gruden's feat of doubling the number of wins from the previous year. Just like in '99 and '08 the Raiders went shopping acquiring several free agents and trading for a Pro-Bowl corner. With the amount of money the Raiders shelled out in contracts, the pressure is now on Lane to follow in Gruden's footsteps and create a jumping-off point for another run of greatness.
Gruden had an advantage of taking over a team that had a strong veteran leadership in Tim Brown and the added leadership from the acquisition of Gannon. Norv had the disadvantage of chronic malcontent Charles Woodson being the veteran leader and acquired hall of shame worthy malcontent Randy Moss. Kiffin has Nnamdi Asomugha as his veteran leader and has added the potentially volatile personalities of DeAngelo Hall and Javon Walker.
Gruden has the veteran journeyman Gannon as his quarterback. Gannon went on to become a league MVP in Oakland. Turner had the veteran journeyman Kerry Collins as his quarterback. Collins flamed out in Oakland and is now a backup to the overrated Vince Young in Tennessee. Kiffin is unique in that he has a second year quarterback who was the top pick in the draft in JaMarcus Russell.
If Rob was right in his prediction of playoffs, Kiffin will take the Gruden road and the Raiders will return to dominance. If Kiffin takes the Turner path, the Raiders are going to be in for several more years of misery.
Which way will the Raiders go?
Discussion
13 Comments on "2008 an eerie mirror to past years for the Oakland Raiders, which way will they go?"
#1
Posted by 2008 eerie mirror to past years for the Raiders - Oakland Raiders Forum | Message Board - Where the, April 19, 2008 1:51 AM
[...] eerie mirror to past years for the Raiders Thoughts from the Dark Side | MVN - an Oakland Raiders blog ª Blog Archive ª 2008 an eerie mirror to... __________________ "While there is a lower class, I am in it, and while there is a [...]
#3
Posted by Brian ( New Jersey ), April 19, 2008 5:04 AM
I liked the article alot just to start things off.
Some very valid camparisons where made, but what scares me the most as a fan is we are left with comparing Rich Gannon with Jamarcus Russel. I could only hope in time (sooner rather than later) that Russel can truly lead this team and become something great. Not even H.O.F great, just great enough to make the difference in the 4th quarter when the team has held the lead for 55 minutes of gametime. Gannon eventually was put into a scenario that was perfect for his abilities. Russel still hasn't played an entire season. Until he becomes a confident verteran QB how much can we really expect from the passing game? Will he be able to make the plays necessary to pull off a close game and not turn the ball over in 2008? We will see. I hope so. I believe it's possible. On a more positive note the schedule doesn't look that brutal, so I do believe the Raiders have a strong chance to go .500 this year. That's all I ask. They eventually will make the playoff and reclaim AFC dominace, but for now.....i'd shed a tear for an 8 - 8 season to kick start it off. GO RAIDERS!!!!!!!
#4
Posted by Bill, April 19, 2008 6:18 AM
Brian is right. Everything this year is going to be about J Rock. I don't care about the #1 D (after we get C Long). Or if we get the best RB (D-Mac) or if J Walker recovers and becomes the stud he was before. We need consistant QB play. And even tho no one else wanted Gannon, he is greatly missed by Raider Nation. I can see a better team right now with all our offseason business and with the 4th pick in the draft. But the Raiders do not make the playoffs unless J-Rock can play.
#5
Posted by Thoughts from the Dark Side: 2008 an eerie mirror to past years for the Oakland Raiders, which way w, April 19, 2008 9:09 AM
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#6
Posted by inonewordraider, April 19, 2008 9:23 AM
Good stuff. Don't think we have to worry too much about the passing game just yet. Jamarcus will stretch the defense with his big arm so corners and safeties can't play to close to the box to stop the run. We had a good running game last year and Michael Bush is a beast so Jamarcus should just have to manage the game a la Big Ben in Pittsburgh.
#7
Posted by Rob Calonge, April 19, 2008 5:58 PM
Great comparisons Patrick. I think the Raiders will definitely be better than 8-8. inonewordraider is right. With the running game, improved defense, and maybe Kiffin putting an end to the prevent defense, all J-Russ has to do is manage the game.
#8
Posted by ArtBone, April 19, 2008 11:04 PM
Uh...Los Angeles City of Industry. Just kidding. 8-8 is where the RAIDERS will be. Them damn Chargers are still good. Even with that suckazz Rivers.
#9
Posted by Matt, April 20, 2008 12:16 AM
like everyone has said it all depends on jamarcus but i think the strength of our run game(being able to play action helps alot) and our defense(especially if we take dorsey or long) will take a considerable amount of pressure off of him
#10
Posted by Raider Till Death!, April 20, 2008 7:36 PM
Great Insight, Patrick! I loved the analysis. I would just like to point out some quick notes as to why 2008 will resemble 1999 rather than Norv's regimem of 2005.
We also have a leader present in Justin Fargas who has shown himself to be a team player and who puts in some hard effort to improve his game, thats the Raider Way!
Lamont Jordan had just been signed & his running game w/ the Jets was nothing like the one already set up in Oakland last year and so without a doubt in my mind, our ground attack will match nothing like that of 2005's.
Rather than the huge-egoed Randy Moss (who we got through a trade so we dont really know if he wanted to come to Oakland and most probably he didnt) we have signed Walker who will likely be the next "Tim Brown". We also inked Drew Carter who is coming off of season high stats in Carolina.
Our O-line had found much success last year under Tom Cable and is most definately of higher capability than that of coming into 2005.
We had Kerry Collins as our QB! Hopefully with a full training camp and pre-season, Russell will be the first overall selection he had shown himself to be.
I hope you agree Patrick and I for one anxiously await the arrival of the season opener against Denver! Once Again, Great Read!
#11
Posted by Raider Till Death!, April 20, 2008 8:08 PM
Great Insight, Patrick! I loved the analysis! I would just like to present some pints as to why the 2008 campaign will resemble 1999 rather than Norv's regime in 2005.
The Raiders also have a leader present in Justin Fargas who has proven to be a team player and who actually puts in some hard effort to improve his game. Thats the Raider Way!
Lamont Jordan had just been freshly signed and his running game w/ the Jets was nothing like the ground attack already established by Oakland in 07. So coming into the 08 season, we have one less thing to worry about unlike in 2005 when Jordan was expected to fix the running.
The large-egoed Randy Moss had been traded for (so we dont really know if wanted to come to Oakland and most probably didnt) while this year we just signed Javon Walker who will likely be the next Tim Brown. Coming off of season high stats in Carolina, Drew Carter was also aquired.
Our O-line has found much sucess under Tom Cable and is without doubt of higher capability than that of 2005's.
In 2005, we had Kerry Collin as QB! With a full preseason, training camp and offseason coaching, Russell will be the 1st overall selection he showed himself to be.
I hope you agree, Patrick and I for one anxiously await the season opener against Denver! Once again, Great article!
#12
Posted by Rebel2124, April 21, 2008 8:36 AM
I don't actually enjoy a lot of articles, but I enjoyed this one, thumbs up Patrick.
Many of you guys who left comments make excellent points. We already know what to expect. Teams will put eight in the box to force us to throw hoping young JR will throw INTs. The developed rapport between our QB and WRs this offseason will be crucial to success. With the additions to our defensive backfield we can look for success there. However, no one can guard anyone forever. Our D will have to stop the run and get pressure on opposing QBs. If we can't do either of those two things this year, we're in for a long season.
#13
Posted by Juice, April 21, 2008 5:00 PM
I definately believe that the Raiders will be a better team in the upcoming season, and I really like the comparisons in your article Patrick. You're definately on point. I think we all can agree that Lane seems to be more Gruden than Turner, at least in regards to personality and character. Turner is a great play caller, but he has the personality of a manekin and couldn't run that locker room to save his job. Granted the character of his personnel didn't help, but he just didn't have it in him to get the job done. Could you have honestly envisioned Norv standing up to Uncle Al? Lane has that "it" factor about him that just screams had coach to me. The way this team is currently constructed though, I firmly believe the Raiders will be an 8 or 9 win team, especially with the "seemingly" light schedule they are subject to. I know what everyone is thinking, "is that all?", but think about it for a minute. This team was 4-12 last year, with a rookie coach with no experience, a revolving door at quarterback, and a porous run defense. To his credit, Lane wasn't going to make it happen overnight. He did however improve the culture of the lockerroom and get his players to buy into what he was trying to sell, which indeed had to be done. He got them to play there asses off, even if they only had 4 wins to show for it. However they were in nearly every game, and for the first time in what seems like a decade they won a divisional road game. Mentally, Lane rebuilt the mindset of the team, now they have taken the next step and added talent. The only reason I don't think this team will make the playoffs is because of the biggest wild card on the roster, JaMarcus Russell. True he'll have a full offseason and camp under his belt, but he is still very much a neophyte when it comes to starting at quarterback in the NFL. Nobody really knows what to expect from him, and if there is one position you can directly trace to a team's success, it's quarterback. I would be overwhelmed if JaMarcus channels Ben Roethlisberger's rookie campaign, but I see this team being more like last season's Minnesota Vikings or Cleveland Browns. Both of those teams just missed the postseason, but improved dramatically. Come on people, Rome wasn't built in a day, but progress is awaiting this once storied franchise.
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