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Thoughts from the Dark Side
Al Davis still knows drafting, he just needs better luck.
Image details: Raiders owner Al Davis served by picapp.com
Al needs a little patience with coaching to go along with a little luck.
So often when the Oakland Raiders, Al Davis, and drafting are mentioned in the same conversation, other words such as speed, athlete, and workout seem to follow. Another word that ends up becoming part of the conversation is, “Marinovich.” Unfairly, Todd Marinovich is the man whom many of the draft-niks and media journalists use to define Al Davis and his drafting prowess. The fact that makes this so unfortunate is that when Todd Marinovich was drafted, he was thought to be the second coming of Ken Stabler, a highly skilled quarterback that liked to party. People forget that he lead the Trojans to a Rose Bowl victory over the Bo Schembechler led Michigan Wolverines in his freshman season. Maybe it was the joy people got out of Marinovich embarrassing himself, his dad, and Al Davis.
Al Davis has always had an affinity for gambling on talent. The problem for him is that his incredible luck of the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s hasn’t been so good. An argument can be made that from 1963 through 1986, only four men coached the silver and black, while nine men have steered the ship since…well eight, but Art Shell had two terms.
If you were to generalize that Davis thinks too highly of his own GM skills, you wouldn’t be too far from the truth, but that’s not to say that his drafting skills have gotten worse. The game has changed with free agency now a factor, preventing Davis from stockpiling his gambles until they pan out. This fact, coupled with his inability to have the patience to keep a coach long enough to mold this talent has been a detriment to the franchise as a whole.
Davis, as always, seems to have been smart enough to see this. For the first time since Flores was prowling the sidelines, the Raiders can boast one of the best coaching staffs for developing young talent. From QB Coach John DeFilippo to Special Teams Coordinator Brian Schneider, the Raiders are full of ‘teaching’ coaches. Credit Al Davis, Lane Kiffin, and Rob Ryan for this. Mostly credit the boss, Al Davis for realizing that in order to utilize the ‘talent’ that he drafts, he needs to develop it.
Some of the gambles that Davis has made has paid off; Hendricks, Blanda, and Willie Brown are a few of the gambles that Davis has made that netted him huge jackpots. In the draft, he’s gambled and won on Banaszak, Shell, and Atkinson among others. Since drafting McFadden, many are talking about the days of Allen and Bo, which by many estimations were gambles when Davis drafted them.
Davis’ eye for talent should never be questioned. In 1964, he took a flyer in the tenth round on Mel Renfro. Renfro, drafted by the NFL’s Cowboys in the second round never signed with the Raiders, because he went to the NFL’s Cowboys as a second round pick and had a hall of fame career. In 1965, he used his tenth round pick on the Cowboys’ first round pick Craig Morton who went on to be the only quarterback to lead two different teams to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, or some would say fortunately since he lost in both, the Raiders weren’t one of those teams.
Bo Jackson wasn’t the first two sport star that Davis drafted either. In 1966, he drafted the QB from the Gayle Sayers lead Kansas team. His name was Steve Renko. Renko never suited up for the Raiders, but he went on to have a 15 year major league baseball career as a pitcher for the Red Sox, Expos, A’s, Cubs, and a few other teams. The Raiders have him listed as a fullback for some reason, but it’s obvious that he had a pretty good arm.
In a draft, you don’t always get the guys you want. If that were the case, then there wouldn’t be free agency, trades, or for that matter a draft. Players like Derrick Burgess, DeAngelo Hall, or Javon Walker are some of the players that Davis most likely coveted on draft day, but wasn’t able to get. The Todd Christensens, Bob Chandlers, and Willie Browns come from Davis’ superior eye for talent.
Where Davis has failed is no different from any good gambler, the cards just haven’t come his way. Unlike the Kenny Rogers song, he’s also had problems knowing when to fold ‘em and when to hold ‘em. James Jett would be a good example of a Raider held too long, while Matt Millen may be one of Davis’ gaffes in player management by letting him go. In nine years as a Raider, Jett caught 256 passes for an average of 28 per season. He dropped countless other passes during his tenure. Millen went on to win two Super Bowls, starting one with the 49ers and inactive for the other with the Redskins.
Many examples can be made from Davis’ past picks, but the proof is in the players that are currently on the team or playing in the NFL. The success of a player depends on much more than just talent. System, coaching, and duties within the scheme play major factors as well. Many players also need good players around them in order to succeed. If Davis and the coaching staff have done a good job of over the past year, then 2008 should net some big wins for the Raiders.
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20 Responses to “Al Davis still knows drafting, he just needs better luck.”
May 6th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Rob: “The game has changed with free agency now a factor, preventing Davis from stockpiling his gambles until they pan out. This fact, coupled with his inability to have the patience to keep a coach long enough to mold this talent has been a detriment to the franchise as a whole.”
This sentence alone proves that Al’s drafting woes in the last 20 years have less to do with luck.
Though I recently pointed out that the 2nd and 3rd round draft picks have been better than their first rounders since 96, I was unable to go back further than 96 because (outside of Nap Kaufman in the first round of 95), every draft in the prior 5 years was truly terrible and is solely responsible for this team being unsuccessful in the 90’s.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Rob, Nice article but you failed to prove your point (”Al Davis still knows drafting…”). The fact is, he may still get lucky with some talent, but over the past nine drafts (2000 - 2008), his drafting has been horrendous.
Since it is unfair to evaluate a draft class for at least two to three years, I’ll leave out the ‘07 and ‘08 classes from the argument. that leaves ‘00-’06. In those classes the Raiders had a total of 54 picks. Of those, 16 are still on the roster - a 29.62% hit rate! Of those 16, eight (8) are starters if you include Janikowski and Lechler - or a 14.81% hit rate! That is failing in anyone’s book.
Look at New England or Indy and you’ll see that in that same period they have closer to 50% or more of their draft picks on the roster.
Dredging up info from drafts more than 20 years ago is folly and frankly disproves your thesis. The fact is Big Al still may get lucky from time-to-time (see Lechler, Morrison, Asomugha), but overall he has frankly lost his talent for spotting talent.
One can only hope Big Al still has the sense to let Kiffin continue to weed out the roster and actually build a good team from the ground up.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Guys,
The point that I’m making is that it’s NOT the drafting, which is what many in the media would have you believe. Guys such as Rod Coleman, La’Roi Glover, or Grady Jackson would count as draft picks and players that blossomed after leaving the silver and black. The point is that head coaching changes, a lack of patience, and an inability to configure his methods with free agency have lead to the so-called poor draft record.
Going back to 2005, only 2 of the 7 players drafted aren’t palying in the NFL, Washington, Routt, and Morrison can be considered starter material while Walter may prove to be great as well. Antaj Hawthorne was the Michael Bush pick of that draft, he just didn’t pan out. Ryan Riddle played with the Jets last year. Pete McMahon is on the Jaguars roster. That’s not too bad considering the average length of a NFL career is ~4 years. Think about it for a second, do you really think that you could start Washington and Routt on the corners with Morrison in the middle and have Walter as your starting QB? There are teams in this league that start worse at those respective positions.
The biggest problem for the Raiders has been no clear stability in the head coaching position which is why players like Walter or Tuiasosopo get their careers stunted.
Go back to the 2002 draft. Buchanon would be considered a bust, but he was playing for th Bucc’s last season. Nap Harris started for the Chiefs, Langston Walker started for the Bills, Kenyon Coleman played for the Jets, Curry started for the Raiders, and only 3 of the 8 drafted were out of the league…one being Doug Jolley.
The reason that I brought up the distant past is to remind everyone that his drafting hasn’t brought different results, it’s his ability to stay with ONE system and ONE head coach along with the fact of free agency and luck. go back to Gruden’s second year and find a story about the Raiders prior to them beating the Chiefs the last game of the season. There was an awful lot of talk about him firing Gruden after that season for having another .500 team. Now had he fired Gruden after season two…
That’s really the only point I was trying to make. Just to be realistic that no draft pick can ever live up to expectations unless the continuity of the person coaching him remains. As was pointed out, the Patriots NOW have what looks like an exceptional draft record, thanks in large part that Bellichick has been there for seven years.
Thanks for coming by and reading.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Good article Rob. Hopefully we can have stability in our coaching staff. I feel the same way in the fact all those teams with good draft record have stability in their coaching (T. Dungy-IND & B. Belichick- NE). This year, however, Kiffin has to be in contention to make the playoffs or he wont have a job. Big Al put a lot of money into the team to just have a .500 record, so pressure will be on Kiffin.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
[…] Davis knows drafting, just needs better luck Thoughts from the Dark Side | MVN - an Oakland Raiders blog Blog Archive Al Davis still knows drafti… __________________ "While there is a lower class, I am in it, and while there is a […]
May 6th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
[…] Al Davis still knows drafting, he just needs better luck. Image details: Raiders owner Al Davis served by picapp.com Al needs a little patience with coaching to go along with a little luck.http://mvn.com/nfl-raiders/2008/05/06/al-d… […]
May 6th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
I believe that challenging for the AFC West title, regardless of whether the Raiders win it or not, should be enough for Kiff to keep his job. The team has not had more than 5 wins in 5 seasons and has a veritable rookie starting QB, so 8-8 and up should mean Kiff gets a year 3. It is in year 3 that it will be imperative for the Raiders to get to the playoffs and begin contending for a title, or Kiff will get the AX from Al.
OakFoSho
May 6th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
Should Norv have gone? Yes. Should Art have gone? Yes. Should Kiff have gone? What if Al wanted him gone because he was inquiring about the Arkansas or other college coaching opportunities? Wouldn’t you want him gone? We’re quick to blame Al, but as proven by this article although a lot of players haven’t panned out on our team the picks have had good careers here or elsewhere. They just haven’t been properly molded due in part to vast coaching changes which can either be attributed to the beleif that Al is the real coach here or maybe Al doesn’t want to hire anybody that’s actually gonna wanna be in charge. Speaking of Norv, as long as he’s the Charger coach, we have a chance of beating them
May 6th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Rob, is it a fair argument to make that a large degree of Raider draft failures can be attributed to impatience? If you don’t perform within 1-2 years, we’ll find a pricey free agent who will? I realize Fargas had an injury history, but you go after Lamont Jordan because you don’t want to test him–guess who outperformed. You have a nice young player in Fabian Washington and you trade him away to get the sexy free agent pick. You have a RB with tremendous upside in Bush but you’ll never know how he’ll do because the Raiders gave up on him, essentially. Walter didn’t do any worse than Eli Manning did in his first season of play. Napoleon Harris began to thrive once he left Oakland. Philip Buchanon is starting to play well. Hell, they didn’t even give Quentin Moses even part of the season to prove his worth.
The difference between New England and Oakland is that New England lets their players make mistakes and develop. Oakland young players are always playing for their jobs. If Jamarcus Russel is anything short of a solid, .500 starter, don’t be surprised if the Raiders draft an early round QB next year.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Jon - EXACTLY! I couldn’t agree with you more. So when you hear that the Raiders don’t draft well, don’t buy it. The Raiders don’t DEVELOP well.
May 7th, 2008 at 3:27 am
Rob-
Good article! I for one have never liked the drafts we’ve done but I have liked the last two. With this in mind I do see your point. Regarding not developing though… The same could be said for most teams - not just football. In baseball, you go there and they run a 60 yd dash for time. What does it have to do with baseball? But the clock is king and we’ll develop you to steal bases later. Yeah right! The development rarely if ever occurs.
There’s something to the continuity for sure. I really think Kiffin is the guy but if he was out looking at the Arkansas job then that’s a problem. Al should find a way to make the point Kiffin’s the guy and we should move forward. By the same token, Ryan isn’t the right D Coordinator but he’s serviceable. The point is we seem to be putting pieces together albeit the opposite manner the book says it should be done so we should be putting coaches together too. In many respects we are but guys need to know what to expect. It would be nice to know Kiffin was going to stay and we can stop this turmoil. I don’t believe we can win until we do.
May 7th, 2008 at 4:08 am
If you were going to write a textbook on how to ruin a top prospect all you would have to do it to chronicle Robert Gallery and Jake Grove’s careers in Oakland prior to Tom Cable’s arrival. Multiple position coaches, multiple schemes leading to NO STABILITY AT ALL.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:40 am
“Should Norv have gone? Yes. Should Art have gone? Yes. Should Kiff have gone? What if Al wanted him gone because he was inquiring about the Arkansas or other college coaching opportunities?” All the answers are yes, but how many good coaches will work with Al? Al’s eye for talent I believe should never come into question. Turner and Shell were the only experienced coaches that would give Al his due. When Al goes after someone who would not get a head job somewhere else he does well. Gruden’s ego is bigger than Al’s which is why he wanted to leave. As for Kiffin, with all the remarks made of Al and his team making improvement, but not winning the way it should, there is no wonder why there were feelings of “my job is over”. Hopefully Al took care of that problem, and The Raiders can get back to playing football instead of playing “he said” “he said”. AD has always been able to see talent, but is sometimes blinded from their integridy. Being a man of little patience for somethings a few players who did not grow up fast enough were let go to soon and other players with physical talent(but not football talent, such as Grady) were kept too long. Kiffin has talent and the staff around him to develop players, but he must show loyalty to the Raiders for Al to give him the reigns.
May 7th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
One thing i still think we need is another PROVEN receiver. Chris Henry is a franchise receiver in waiting if he can stay out of the Ohio Dept. of Corrections. I would love to add him because we could get him dirt cheap. It would be a steal for us, hopefully he won’t steal anything in Oakland. By the way he is a product of my beloved WVU Mountaineers. So is Pacman. They make us so Proud in the Mountain State.
May 7th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Jon:
Napoleon Harris has not played any better since we traded him than he played in Oakland. He has been decent in Minnesota and KC which is all he was here.
Phillip Buchanon has not been good. He is only playing for Tampa Because it was Gruden who drafted him and Gruden has taken every player he drafted for the Raiders that we have thrown out and tried to salvage them. None of them have worked out. The Raiders weren’t the only team to give up on Quentin Moses. The Cardinals (who oddly enough cut their own 3rd round pick the same preseason) grabbed him after we dropped him and then THEY CUT HIM TOO. How’s that for being given a shot?Fabian Washington had his chance and despite that we probably should have gotten more for him, he couldn’t hold down the starting job. He lost it to a guy who was drafted in the same year in Routt who was supposed to be a more raw project. Guess not.
So most of what you said makes sense. I feel like I am shooting clay pigeons. PULL!
Andrew Walter did get a raw deal but NO team passes up a franchise QB that is a bonafide #1 pick in JaMarcus Russell. If they hadn’t taken him and Andrew Walter didn’t turn it around, this team would be in trouble for a lot longer. JRock will help right this ship.
And you are absolutely right about Michael Bush. Giving up on him is such a waste. But hopefully this gives us that 2 back system that is so trendy these days. Heck 3 back with Fargas.
May 7th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
LMAO WVRaider. I bet you just love those two winners. I was waiting for a Raider fan to bring up Chris Henry. It makes sense that it was you being that you are from WV. I rub my chin at the thought too to tell you the truth. He would come cheap and get a short term deal so we could cut ties if need be. I wouldn’t hate the idea I guess is what I am saying. All the other fans would say it is a typical Raider signing but they would have to eat crow if it panned out. And no real harm done if it didn’t.
May 7th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
LDizzle, Buchanon actually played pretty well last year. But Harris and Buchanon aren’t supposed to be the prime examples–just proving that a team that lacks depth can’t necessarily afford to trade these kinds of players away at will, not to mention liberally giving up draft picks.
The fact is, it takes a few years to develop players. And beggars can’t be choosers. It’s one thing if it happens in isolation, but it’s very difficult to think of many rookies whom the Raiders have given more than 2-3 years to prove themselves. What’s worse is that the Raiders give up entirely on players who aren’t premiere starters, nevermind what they can contribute as valuable depth players.
If Michael Bush turns out to be a bona fide star, I’d argue the Raiders completely wasted a draft pick. If Walter goes out and proves to be a solid QB, they arguably wasted a draft pick. Just saying that the good teams give young players every chance to develop and most great teams will find that if those players don’t turn into stars, they’ll eventually become valuable role players.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Jon Yoon I read ya. That concept is a good one actually. If you read comments in here it just gets outrageous how many idiots talk about trading players players for draft picks. Whether they be proven or not. I heard a guy talk about trading Michael Bush for a receiver. No one in particular though just any receiver we could get I suppose. Good thing it isn’t up to guys like that or this team would be even worse off in the player development department. Al likes to make noise in the FA market and in the draft and it is rather exciting for most of the fans. I personally find it to be a bit scary at times for the reasons that you and Rob are pointing out.
Let’s not forget that Nap Harris had to be decent to be in that trade for the unmentionable receiver. Plus we had Eric Barton waiting in the wings to be the starter and he deserved that chance IMO. I liked Eric Barton for a long time before he finally got his shot at being a starter. He was a good example of a late rounder that the Raiders developed into a starter. Granted he is in NY now but he was replaced by an absolute star in Morrison.
Buchanon plays better in Tampa because of the Tampa 2 they play. He was not a good fit in the man coverage the Raiders play.
May 8th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
LDizzle…
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… I think Lane Kiffin is an outstanding coach and it really pains me to see Davis go above his head and destroy everything Kiffin was built.
I actually think Kiffin was doing everything right. Under Kiffin, that was one of the few times I’ve seen Oakland this century attempt to build off what they have instead of trying to replace every single player in a knee-jerk reaction. As a classic example, the old Al Davis would have maybe traded or cut Robert Gallery–moving him to guard was an outstanding decision. I still can’t help but think that almost every move made this offseason reeks of Al Davis and is completely contrary to the philosophy Kiffin was trying to install in Oakland.
In other words, for your team’s sake, I do hope (and believe it or not… I do hope) that Kiffin outlasts Davis and that once this circus of a team-building concept is over, that Kiffin will be allowed to run the team his way. I have tremendous respect for your fan base and it pains me to see it get wrecked because of one man’s ego. I think Davis is a brilliant man and owner, but he’s just not that effective in the cap era. Much like our reject in the front office, Carl Peterson, these are two guys who have had terrific runs but have outstayed their usefulness.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Man i hope Edgeraton Hartwell can get healthy and play that SLB for us like he did so good a few years ago in Baltimore and yeah Chris Henry would be a pretty good signing but i think he’ll be suspended by Roger “Castro” Goddel… But i not yeah definetly we sign him he’s a speedy big WR he could help us out alot even though he’s very similar to Drew Carter.
GO RAIDERS!!!
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