August 15, 2008
Oakland Raider Analysis: Lane Kiffin, coach like your job depends on it--IT DOES
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It seems unusual to talk about a second year coach being on the hot seat, especially after he showed the beginnings of a turnaround with a team that has been down and out. This is not the usual situation, this is the Oakland Raiders. Al Davis is notoriously impatient with his coaches, and if there aren't results fast, that coach is on the unemployment line. No excuses or second thoughts. The reality is that Lane Kiffin took over a 2-14 team in complete disarray, and has started a rebuilding program that would buy him some time from any other owner. If Kiffin wants to be the Raider coach beyond this season, he has to get the team to at least seven wins.
That sounds insane that a coach only has two years, but again this is the Raiders. Since Tom Flores moved on following the 1987 season the Raiders have only had two coaches who have lasted more than two years. Art Shell's first tenure (1989-1994) and Jon Gruden. (1998-2001)
The list of the others:
- Mike Shanahan 1988-89 (four games coached in 89)
- Mike White 1995-6
- Joe Bugal 1997
- Bill Callihan 02-3
- Norv Turner 04-5
- Art Shell (second tenure) 06
Thats six out of eight coaches who had two years or less before they were shown the door. That has to give Kiffin some pause. Granted, the Raiders had not been as low as they had been in 2006 since Al Davis first took over in 1963, but Davis turned that team right around and expects his protégées to do the same.
The drama of this past offseason likely drove home to Kiffin just how tenuous his hold on the Raiders coaching job was as rumors continually swirled around that he was asked to resign, and supposedly Kiffin told Davis to fire him. To outside observers, it seemed like Kiffin was an outsider to his own team, with Kiffin not being seen much at the scouting combine.
There is one key to Lane Kiffin keeping his job. He has to win early and often. There is one thing that Al Davis does not tolerate and that is losing. Kiffin's best bet for job security is to be at least 2-2 when the Raiders get to their week five bye. From there, Kiffin needs to win at least five more games and get the Raiders to a respectable seven wins to have a chance to keep his job. If he can get the Raiders to 8-8 or better, he can relax for the offseason knowing he will be employed for the 2009 season.
Hoping to see Lane Kiffin avoid unemployment here at TFDS
Discussion
16 Comments on "Oakland Raider Analysis: Lane Kiffin, coach like your job depends on it--IT DOES"
#1
Posted by rada4life, August 15, 2008 3:54 AM
I think our Raiders will at least get to .500 this season with an 8-8 record.I am ultimately hoping for a 10-6 and a playoff berth,but we will see.Although Kiffen has created compitition in camp,let's see if moves over to Regular season and produces wins(fingers crossed).As long as Kiffen gets wins,he won't be going anywhere.On the other hand,if he starts out of the gate with loses,AD will remember Kiffen was seeking employment elsewhere at one time and will be thinking of other candidates to replace him with.Here's to winning Kiff and winning often! GOOO RADA'S!!!!!BTW.....1ST;)
#2
Posted by Coach Elkins, August 15, 2008 5:44 AM
Regardless of what happens this evening against the Titans, the Oakland Raiders will not win 7 or even 8 games this year.
Sadly, even if Coach Kiffin did win 7 or 8 games, he should still lose his job. The season should go something like this:
1. Home against Denver
Great chance for a win, hopes are high, Denver will be without top WR, injuries shouldn't be a factor.
Prediction----Win
2. Away vs K.C.
Larry Johnson is back healthy. K.C. is always tough at home. Too much noise for our young QB and his Head Coach has no confidence in him, so yeah!
Prediction---Loss
3. Away vs Buffalo
2nd game away from home vs an ever improving team on the East Coast. Weather won't be a factor, but RB Lynch will be....
Prediction---Loss
4. Home vs San Diego
Ha ha....good Luck Kiffin, tell ya what, if you are 1-2 heading into this week, pick up the phone, call Mr. Davis, and have him call me in for help, it's your only hope.
Prediction---Loss
5. Bye
Prediction---Rest
6. Away vs N.O Saints
Tough game on the Road vs one of the best Offenses in the NFC, tough game for our unconfident Head Coach...
Prediction---Loss
7. Home vs Jets
The is an interesting matchup. If Farve is still healthy than the Raiders fall in a close game. I say he'll be just fine.
Prediction---Loss
8. Away vs Baltimore
Ha ha, good luck Lane....make sure to say hello to Coach Ryans brother, maybe he'll have a job for ya when the season is over...wait, nevermind, you already burned that bridge...lol
Prediction---Loss
9. Home vs Atlanta
Finally, a duck on the schedule....still laughing at Matt Ryan being picked 3rd in the draft, almost as bad as Miami picking an Offensive tackle first...lol...somebody someplace is playing mind games with the who NFL universe!
Prediction---Win
10. Home vs Carolina
2nd home game in a row promises to be a close one, but we will fall.
Prediction---Loss
11. Away vs Miami
Easy to lose focus in Miami, but even the Raiders aren't this bad.
Prediction---Win
12. Away vs Denver
The two teams will be fighting for braggin rights at this point, can't see the Raiders sweeping Coach Shanahan.
Prediction---Loss
13. Home vs Kansas City
Just so you all know I do believe in our talent, I gotta account for it to win at least 1 game inspite of its coaching.
Prediction---Win
14. Away vs San Diego
Again, no gameplan on our side.
Prediction---Loss
15. Home vs New England
Prediction---Loss
16. Home vs Houston
This young team will be playing better at this point of the season, our fellas will be thinkin about shopping for their XMas presents by this point, well, that and wondering who their next coach will be?
Prediction---Loss
17. Away vs Tampa Bay
Even if the Bucs have locked up a playoff spot by this point, Gruden won't make the same mistake of resting players this seaason for fear of a fallout prior to the playoffs.
Prediction--Loss
Once again, the Raiders go 4-12. Might have been a bit rough in my assessment of the season, perhaps they'll beat the Texans at home, but that could only mean 5 wins.....
Now, understand that this list is for motivation. Hopefully Kiffin will print this out and put it up for his players to see. This way, I win regardless. You see folks, I hope I'm completely wrong here. However, for those of you that know me, you would know that I was the only man on the whole internet that said the Giants would beat the Patriots last season. My motive is pure, and I do it for the love, not the money!
Hey Coach Kiff, if I had been with your guys this past Training Camp your team would have a shot at winning 9 or even 10 of these games based just on my presence. But hey, there's always USC to run home to......
Good Luck tonight, hopefully we can stay healthy!
Coach Elkins
#3
Posted by Rob Calonge, August 15, 2008 7:01 AM
Coach - Very detailed assessment of the season. I hope your wrong too. I haven't given up hope that the team will be more successful just yet. rada4life gave a pretty popular prediction of 8-8, but I'm going to stick with 10-6 or 11-5.
Patrick - good article buddy.
#4
Posted by KUSHMAN, August 15, 2008 7:41 AM
good article pat.. very detailed as usual.
as usual, your inaccurate as hell elky. heres why. first off, dude baltimore's offense is lame, all they have is D(with old men on it).. they dont even have a steady QB yet, so where can this offense really go... can willis really carry the offense? i think not. and whoever the QB is, will turn the ball over a lot with our allstar backfield... so its fair to say elky that they will lose like they did alot last year(espp with a whole new coaching staff)... denver just might lose both games seeing as they have very little weapons left besides marshall, it seems to me they're at rock bottom, and shananagan PROMISES they're playoff bound, that's laughable. they couldn't stop the run last year JUST FROM FARGAS in the second game, and they didn't add any defensive players(none that are significant anyway).. and last but not least, KC... they are at rock bottom except for LJ(with a crappy QB)... plus he's coming off a bad injury.. and will run circles around us like he does everyone else... but this wont win them the game. my guess is croyle will throw 2-3 int in the game... seeing as the man has yet to win in 7 starts.... they will lose twice in my eyes... i mean, did we not beat the chiefs and broncos on their own turf?? i dont care how new our QB is.. these teams in our division are easily beat... so theres a lot of holes in your logic as usual elky boy.. and lane ownz you dude... he'll prove yer ass wrong this year if the players stay healthy... that's the real question... and i think we'll be just fine.
#5
Posted by SpokaneOakfan, August 15, 2008 7:42 AM
Coach- I've said it before and I'll say it again: you are not the savior for the Raiders. Whatever level you have coached at (I would guess mid size high school program), it ain't the same in the big league.
It would be kind of funny to watch you get second guessed by Pop Warner guys week after week and see how you handled it.
By the way, you weren't the only one on the net who had the Giants winning:
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/SpokaneOakfan/131404/#comments
You put too much faith in Brodie Croyle and Trent Edwards at the QB position. We have the superior defense and the superior running game in both cases- 3-0 out of the gate.
I'll spot you SD and NO, although I think NO is more 2007 than 2006. 3-2
Jets have Favre. He is already complaining of arm soreness. They have a good chance of running all over us, but they also have a very un-scary defense. I think we win that one.
Ravens are trying to decide between has-been, never-was, and new guy at QB. My take on Flacco is there is a reason guys play at Delaware, and it ain't because they're good (Rich Gannon notwithstanding). Defense is still good, but the three cornerstones are all getting long in the tooth. We can take this one, too.
I agree on ATL. 6-2
I'll spot you Carolina, although I think it'll be close. Tyler Brayton is starting there, Deangelo Williams is not going to scare anybody and their QB just had Tommy John surgery. 6-3
Miami is terrible.
Denver beat us on a Ratface referee love call and a long field goal from a kicker who is in Atlanta now. Their running game will fail them this season and Cutler can't do it alone, not on this secondary.
KC might be on their third QB by now. LJ was great when he had Will Shields and Wille Roaf. Without them- not so much. 9-3
How do you gameplan for LT? Tell the rest of the league, coach, because no one else knows, either. I love the guy, but can't wait for him to retire because he gains 500 on us every year. Rivers is starting to look like a pretty good QB, too. Barring injury or phenomenal QB play by Russell, SD sweeps us again.
NE- I think we match up well with NE because we have three really good corners to take away their passing game. They still beat us, dammit. 9-5
This is the year we finally beat Houston. 10-5
The Tampa game should be where Kiff makes the Knute Rockne speech- these guys took away your rightful title because your damn coach was too stupid to change his playbook when playing the guy who wrote it, blah blah blah. Unfortunately, he's only talking to Ronald Curry, Seabass, Lechler and Tui.
10-6
So there is my prediction, although there are obviously going to be close games that can go either way. I like that Kiffin is challenging his QB to impress him in the last few preseason games, hoping to have him built up and ready to go chew on some Doncs in week one. If we can stop the run, if Javon looks as good as everyone says he has the last few practices, if JaMarcus figures it out, we could see a vastly improved team, a good, young team that people are going to be talking about.
#6
Posted by KUSHMAN, August 15, 2008 7:51 AM
oh and yes.. lets say we do lose to baltimore... you really think favre will be healthy by the time the jets come into town? i mean, the guy has the madden curse on his head for christ sakes, i really dont think he'd beat us even if he's in anyway... cotchery will be a non-factor and that's their best weapon, same with coles, they will probably have a few receptions a piece tru, but not enough to pull out a win. and especially if brett's arm stays fatigued and old he is. i really am predicting that favre's age is going to catch up with him this year ... they will go down in oakland my man. if you want to talk about their running game, thomas jones isn't the best ever(horrible YPC rating throughout his career)... true faneca will boost his running game up some.. but kelly will be there to stuff the man all night. jets will go down in oakland
#7
Posted by Coach Elkins, August 15, 2008 8:04 AM
With fans this dedicated to the cause its truely sad to me that this team cannot win more games.
Great posts by each and every one of you. I am sorry to have to be the one who has to give you this news, as I know how much it hurts.
If you knew everything I knew, then we'ld have an understanding. I am sorry it has to be this way, but in the future you'll all look back on this and laugh!
Hey if it makes ya'll feel better, write your pics down and compare them to the ones I posted. If I am proven wrong, I'll be the first to admit it.....
The difference between us is simple. You are "ALL" thinking with your hearts and not your heads. Our head coach is all about himself, he has no honor, and he is going down!
#8
Posted by Rick Teixeira, August 15, 2008 8:05 AM
I don't know if Kiffin will be that sad about losing the job. He's auditioning for his next gig. The only way I see him coming back when his contract is done is if the team goes WAY beyond expectations. Like making the playoffs. Every time he talks now, it sounds like a man who has one foot out the door. And I can't blame him. Davis doesn't have much time left, but he needs to remember that, for all the regular season success, Madden couldn't win the
big one for a while. It took Gruden took a couple of years to pull the team out of the dumpster. I'm really interested to see what Tom Cable produces in his second year as O-line coach. I really like how our run blocking looks. If the pass protection improves in year two, then he might be the key to Kiffin's longevity.
#9
Posted by Coach Elkins, August 15, 2008 8:13 AM
Patrick---
The award for best "BLOG TITLE" of the year goes to YOU......
You fire me up buddy, I may need to think about telling the HELP to give you a raise!
#10
Posted by KUSHMAN, August 15, 2008 8:13 AM
no honor? based upon what elkins? his offseason issues? the way he goes about things and the way he explains things? what coach can be 100% confident in his second seeaon with big gay al breathing down his neck? you are just assuming all of this. your accusations are very bland there my man. wait till the season starts.. you will be wrong about him.
#11
Posted by Coach Elkins, August 15, 2008 8:26 AM
Based upon your extreme willingness to disagree with me Kushman, I may have a job for you next season. I hate it when people agree with everything I say, and you seem to be perfect for developing the devils adocate side of things. This is one of the most important people a good coaching staff can have....tell you what.....just think about it....ha ha!
Even I couldn't be right all the time, with you around, at least concerning the sport of football, I would remain almost human! No, I'm wrong again, I digress, I am the best football coach in the country!
#12
Posted by KUSHMAN, August 15, 2008 9:13 AM
yea you do make some good points on lane goes about things.. and maybe i do speak from the heart more than often, but i just think its way too early to say he doesnt have any honor, because he has a great report with players, despite how he talks bout them in interviews... and i agree with you on yer predictions on most of those games... but just those few like the jets and our own division.. ireally feel we'll go 4-2 this year.. and that'll help our wins.. 7-9 or 8-8 for me... but yea.. its just too early to tell..
#13
Posted by Raider Blues, August 15, 2008 9:39 AM
Good Article and 10-6 it is...
Coach E... Do you know Coach Kif or something? It's like he nailed your Wife and you hate him.
Al didn't exactly have quality coaches beating his door down when Lane came along so here's to the Kiffin Success!!!
#14
Posted by Bill, August 15, 2008 10:12 AM
Coach knows diddly. If (and thats a big if) the Raiders can stop the run, what is stoping them? I'm a coach to, I've coached QB's and O line for over 9 years now. Coach is a hater. I see a very good team playin with a rookie QB. If we had any of the top 10 QBs in the game, I would say Superbowl bound. Sadly I have to remember our QB is a rookie. Our O line is not great, but we will run first and wear down the D line. Then when the D line is good and tired, BOMBS AWAY! Also bootlegs and roll out help the O line too.
Coach,
I think we like the same type of O (aggresive). I'm just sorry to tell you that with Russell it is not going to happen. Get over it. Kiffin is doing a good job.
#15
Posted by azraider37, August 15, 2008 2:22 PM
Give Kiff the benefit of the doubt for now. He hasn't done anything but double our wins, and I give him a solid shot at doing it again. I predict 8-8 this year. As long as we are improving at that rate, I will never bag on the coach.
#16
Posted by pat. T, August 15, 2008 2:23 PM
As much as i hate to say it i think most of these comments are at least some what true. If we don't at least get to a 7-9 season than Lane can start packing his bags & head back to USC, or maybe he'll get offered a head coaching job with some other college. I don't deny Kiffin has done a great job with the Raiders. He made us look like an NFL team again after the atrocius 2006 season, & i would love for him to stay as our coach. but i see to much bad blood between Davis & Kiffin. So many rumors about them not getting along & Davis asking him to resign, i don't belive their all true. But they all can't be lies & simply rumors. As much as i hate to admit it. And i also doubt Kiffin even wants to coach the Raiders, but he just wants to get paid & he knows if he's fired he'll still get paid. I don't see how people see us winning more than 8 or 9 games this season, we've improved but its ridiculous to think we'll be 10-6 & get in the playoffs. I obviously hope im way off & we do make the playoffs, hell & we even win the Superbowl. But it just doesn't look likely.
I just can't see who would be our new coach if Kiffin was fired. Hell i don't know of many crazy people that would accept to coach an Al Davis team. Maybe if he promoted one of our assistant coaches(most likely Tom Cable or Greg Knapp). I think, no i know if Kiffin leaves it will affect the whole team, & mostly our offense specifically JaMarcus Russell. He'd probably have to learn a new style of offense & probably have to get used to new players as well.
GO RAIDERS!!!
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