Rams’ Avery pick: Fortune or folly?
Draft day is my favorite day of the year. It’s my football birthday, so to speak. On Saturday, I actually argued with a couple friends over whether the draft is better than the Super Bowl. My answer? A resounding yes, of course.
The Super Bowl symbolizes the end of things: a champ is crowned, the crowd filters out of the stadium and then there is no more football for seven months. The draft, on the other hand, is a sign of what’s to come. Players being added to the roster, depth chart re-shuffling, a boost (or jab) to fans’ confidence… The draft is the beginning of things and, with luck, a beacon of hope at the prospect of a new season.
So it is with a heavy heart that I must concede that I have little hope left. Saturday’s draft left me broken. Sure, things got off to a good start with the Rams making the smart, if unspectacular, pick of Chris Long in the first round and biding their time until the second round. But then the Rams, like homestate hero Truman, dropped the bomb. With the second pick of the second round, your St. Louis Rams select… Donnie Avery, WR, Houston.
I imagine that many of you had the same reaction I did. You know, jumping up and down (I had already been standing for several minutes in anticipation; otherwise, I imagine I would have exploded from my seat), punching walls, screaming. I can’t tell you what I said that day, because, frankly, MVN won’t let me print it. Let’s just say that there were very few words in the next 10 minutes that would make it into a PG-13 movie.
It was a perplexing pick. The Rams, with holes all over the field, choose to go with receiver, an offensive skill position where they already have at least two capable players. And further, the Rams, having decided to select a speedy receiver to stretch the field, pick Avery, a relative unknown with big names like DeSean Jackson and Limas Sweed still on the board (in addition to the flashy possession-types like Malcolm Kelly).
In the days since the draft, a lot of folks have come around on the Avery pick. Sure, they say, Avery was ranked much lower than the others, but what do those ESPN “experts” know anyway? Wasn’t an offensive playmaker a team need? Admittedly, Avery’s got speed to burn. Hell, the kid’s lightning in a bottle - a 4.2 40 doesn’t exactly grow on trees, you know? And yes, the Rams saw the chance to use his return skills in a weak wide receiver crop and with Dante Hall seemingly on the way out. So why am I still feeling cheated?
Pardon me, Rams fans, but I don’t buy the high draft grades or the flowery praise for the “new” Scott Linehan. I don’t buy the front office’s desperate attempts at justifying it. And I certainly don’t buy the arguments floating around that the Avery pick was, and still is in retrospect, the right move to make.
There are two main points floating around arguing for Avery, or at least excusing the Rams for selecting him:
1. So what if the so-called experts had Avery ranked lower going into the draft? What do they know, anyway? If Avery’s the guy Rams coaches believe can help them most, why not draft him?
The important thing to remember here is that the absolute value of picks in the NFL draft doesn’t matter; only their relative values do. Players from certain positions typically get drafted higher (quarterbacks will nearly always go before centers, for instance), and players from certain schools get drafted higher (SEC, I’m looking at you). And team needs figure in here as well. So while Glenn Dorsey may be the best player in this draft class, you won’t hear too many people panning the four teams that passed again, and you won’t hear too many people panning the Chiefs, either. All teams involved made the right decisions for their respective clubs.
What I’m trying to say here is that the pick determines the player and not the other way around. If the Rams wanted Avery - and they apparently wanted him really badly - they should have traded down. And if they couldn’t trade down, they should have just prayed he would fall to them with the second pick of the third round. (For the record, he likely would have.) It’s a phrase you’ll hear over and over on draft weekend, but the “value” just wasn’t there. Yes, that’s, to an extent, a product of media hype. But the game is waiting as long as you can to select the guy you want and not overpaying.
Keep in mind as well that when I say “overpay,” I don’t just mean spending a higher pick than necessary. A guy picked at the top of the second round will literally make several more millions than a guy picked at the top of the third round in guaranteed money, and for a team that’s already a bit strapped for cash, that’s not an ideal situation to find yourself in.
So what were the alternatives here? For starters, the Rams could have looked at a more highly ranked receiver. DeSean Jackson, the receiver from Cal, for instance, has return skills and speed (a 4.3 40) like Avery and is listed an inch taller. Alternatively, the Rams could have waited for a chance at Avery in the third or waited even further to select a player like Will Franklin of Missouri in the fourth. And the selection of Keenan Burton in the fifth round at least somewhat negates the value of Avery in the second as well.
2. We’ll have to wait and see what kind of career Avery has to judge what kind of pick he was.
This is flat out a faulty logic that I’m sick of hearing.
Say that Avery beats out Drew Bennett for a starting wideout spot in camp. And let’s say that he has a spectacular year and gets voted to the Pro Bowl in his rookie season. And, just for the hell of it, let’s say that he eventually goes on to a Hall of Fame career. This Avery pick will still not make sense.
Looking back at a draft and trying to re-construct it in terms of talent is a nice time waster, but, frankly, it’s entirely irrelevant. Even if we are to grade this draft in the future, we will at least have to consider where the player was taken compared to where they were expected to be taken. Going back to the previous example, even if Dorsey’s injury problem flares up and he blows out both legs in his first game as a pro, that will still have been a good pick at the time. Football’s a freaky game, and there’s often just no telling what will happen down the road.
Now here’s one large problem I have with this line of thought. For simplicity’s sake, we’ll use an example. The general consensus is that players start to break out about their third season in the league, so we’ll go back three drafts to 2005. There were a number of fine players selected in the first round of 2005: Braylon Edwards, Demarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman, just to name a few.
In 2005, Jason Campbell, the quarterback from Auburn, was selected by the Redskins with the #25 pick in the draft and has a moderately successful career since. By contrast, Derek Anderson, he of the breakout season with the Browns this past season, was selected by the Baltimore Ravens with the #213 pick. Would it have made sense for the Redskins to pick Anderson instead of Campbell? Of course not.
Now this is an exaggeration, certainly, but the fact is that there will always be gems in the draft’s later rounds. That does not mean that the teams that passed on them in the early rounds failed, just that the teams that did draft them made the right decision at the time that player was drafted.
I’d like to present my take on what should have happened with the Rams’ pick. I’ve given this a lot of thought, and, admittedly, some of the logic of this pick works out because of the way teams after the Rams ended up drafting. But, just for the sake of argument, let’s assume that the Rams get do-overs on their second round picks while the rest of the draft remains relatively the same. (A large assumption, to be sure, which also discredits John Greco, who could ultimately turn out to be a solid lineman prospect. But just go with me on this.)
It’s the top of the second round. The Rams receive word that the Dolphins selected the tumbling Phillip Merling of Clemson and are now on the clock. Immediately, the minds of the coaching staff drift toward Curtis Lofton, the inside linebacker from Oklahoma whose stock seemed to be rising going into the draft. They send in the pick, then sit back and watch the belated rush on wide receivers.
Now it’s the start of day two, and their man - Avery - is off the board. Or maybe he’s on it - it doesn’t really matter. Because Rams coaches have decided to pump up their defense once again. After deliberating, they decided to (wisely) select Dan Connor, the inside linebacker from Penn State who inexplicably fell from a late first round/early second round prospect into the third. The Rams continue their draft in the same way, except maybe picking up an additional tackle at some point since they didn’t get their shot at Greco.
Let’s look over the booty from this hypothetical. The Rams still wind up with offensive line depth (the underrated Roy Schuening) and young blood in the receiving corps (Burton) while injecting a big dose of attitude into their front seven. Not only do the Rams address a need position that got little attention in the offseason (I’m sorry, but Quinton Culberson’s average of 11 tackles per start isn’t a number I’m inclined to trust), they get a chance to move Will Witherspoon back to the outside where he belongs. And if Jim Haslett is serious about using more of a 3-4 defense, an idea he’s been kicking around for a couple years, he now has a solid group to pull it off.
It’d be tough to predict Connor would have lasted to the third round. If you played this draft out 10 more times, I don’t know that he’d last that long in any of them. And after all, one of the points I’ve been making all along is that you can’t reconstruct the draft with more knowledge later on. So the argument isn’t contingent on the Rams taking Connor; a guy like Philip Wheeler of Georgia Tech would yield the same result.
Imagine this: Lofton and Connor (or Wheeler) patrolling the middle; Leonard Little and ‘Spoon flying off the edges; Clifton Ryan plugging up the middle; and Chris Long and Adam Carriker crashing in from the end spots. Chris Draft, Culberson and Pisa Tinoisamoa give the Rams a solid group of backups, and La’Roi Glover has to play fewer snaps. Really, the only variable is how well Little adjusts to playing a rush backer spot. (Don’t worry about Carriker on the outside; 3-4 ends are basically undersized tackles, anyway.) Tell me Haslett wouldn’t be drooling over that scenario. Tell me that wouldn’t be an improvement over the current defensive front. Tell me that wouldn’t lighten the load on the secondary. And tell me that wouldn’t have been a more productive draft. I dare you.
Listen, I realize I may not be saying anything that you don’t know already. But after an offseason of listening to Rams bigheads saying all the right things, it’s frustrating to see them make the same mistakes that plague them year after year. This is the kind of pick that knocks out fans’ hopes and undercuts what the coaches are telling their players. It’s a cause for concern.
And it’s reason to be upset with the Rams’ draft.
This entry was posted
on Thursday, May 1st, 2008 at 12:02 am and is filed under 2008 NFL Draft, 2008 NFL Off-Season, Donnie Avery, Rams Players, Rams News, St. Louis Rams, Rams Defense, Rams Offense, Uncategorized.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
THE AUTHOR
RECENT ARTICLES BY DIVISION RIVALS
ARCHIVE
SPONSORS
Online Seats
St. Louis Rams Tickets St. Louis Cardinals Tickets
Ticket Specialists
Great Seats
St. Louis Rams Tickets MLB Tickets - Cardinals NCAA Tournament Tickets NFL tickets Concert Tours
13 Responses to “Rams’ Avery pick: Fortune or folly?”
May 1st, 2008 at 7:58 am
Your logic is based upon a faulty premise that suggests you somehow know how high the other 31 teams (the opinions that matter) had Avery rated. Did you see Jordy Nelson going ahead of some of the bigger media driven names? My guess is no.
You also disregard what the team was looking for in a WR or even players with their early selections. Further research could have shown you that Avery was being strongly considered by Tampa and Tennessee as early as round one. It would have also shown you that DeSean Jackson had character issues which is something the team was trying to avoid in the light of past draft mistakes. Also Jackson’s size limits him to being a career slot WR. How could he be deemed a better value when he was selected 15 spots later. Where those 15 teams wrong, too?
The idea isn’t just to fill a hole with any player that plays the same position. Said player has to fit the scheme and mold of the team making the selection. And it appears that most of the other player could not pass the test of having high character & intelligence (big playbook coming back under Saunders/Martz offense), speed, and the ability to change directions quickly (goes to fit in new scheme).
Also, IMO, the Rams did a helluva lot better than what you presented as selections.
Why?
1) The Rams don’t and have no plan to run a 3-4 defense full time which is what you plan of players would suggest.
2) Chris Long isn’t a 3-4 “NFL” DE at 266 pounds. You can get away with that in college, but name one NFL 3-4 DE at that size.
3) Along those lines, you don’t spend the #2 pick in the draft on a space eating 3-4 DE.
4) Dan Conner has character issues and is way too small to man the middle in a 3-4 defenses. OGs would eat him alive.
5) Face it. Unless Haslett leaves, Witherspoon is the teams MLB and guys like Lofton don’t have the speed or coverage skills to do what Haslett requires in his defense. Also, it makes little sense to spend 2nd & 3rd round dollars at LB when both Witherspoon and Pisa already have sizeable contracts.
There’s a reason to be upset with the Rams draft, but IMO, it comes easier when one uses flawed logic, disregards the team scheme/fit, and/or is not working with enough information.
May 1st, 2008 at 8:16 am
I agree with Draft Guru, this is a well-written piece, however, it is based on a few simple miscalculations.
Dan Connor is overrated, undersized and slow. He doesn’t fit into our defense in 4-3 or 3-4.
Thank you Draft Guru for stating what I wanted to respond with.
May 1st, 2008 at 1:52 pm
I feel like the tone of this post is a bit more mean-spirited than was entirely necessary, but I’ll do my best to respond to the points in turn. First of all, I think you dwell on the details of the post and largely disregard the big idea that caused me to write it - basically, most people seem to forget that the goal of the draft is to get the player you want as late as possible. Further, one objective of the draft is not just to get the player you want but to avoid paying more than you have to in the process. A “Draft Geek,” I think, would agree with that sentiment.
I agree with your point that a player must fit the team that drafts him. That’s one reason I don’t like the Avery pick. Yes, he has the burst to create separation, which fill a glaring need for the Rams offense. However, all scouting reports that I’ve seen label Avery as a poor route runner. In a timing offense like the Martz offenses of old (and presumably like the one Saunders will install this season), route running is at a premium. That’s one reason that Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt were so perenially successful in St. Louis. In addition, the St. Louis offense that’s been in place for years has required receivers making catches over the middle, another skill Avery seems to lack. A one-dimensional prospect is not the kind of receiver the Rams should have drafted if they wanted a guy who could step in for Bennett right away. And with Avery’s poor blocking and tendency to get jammed at the line, I don’t see why the Rams couldn’t have gotten him or a similar player later in the draft.
I did not address the other Rams’ selections. I liked the Greco and King picks. Burton was a bit questionable, considering the Rams traded up to take him, but I actually like him as a wideout more than I like Avery. Even the seventh round linebackers are pretty good value for the spot they were drafted. My main point with the latter part of the article was that I did not think the need at wide receiver warranted the second pick of the second round. I thought that if Rams management were truly committed to turning around the defense, they would have addressed needs at linebacker (both inside and outside) and safety.
Now, if you’d really like to debate the Lofton/Connor point, I’ll respond to your points.
1. Haslett has said several times that he’s considered switching to a 3-4 base, as late as December. It was only in the early offseason Haslett scrapped the plan, presumably because he realized he did not have the personnel. If he’s truly committed to switching, it may require less talent than he thinks.
2. I see very few ends coming out of college that are real “NFL 3-4 ends.” The best bet to draft specifically for a 3-4 end out of college would be to grab an undersized tackle, a point which I believe I addressed. However, to suggest that Long would not be an improvement over Little and Hall at a 3-4 end spot (a reality that we saw several times before Little’s toe injury) is laughable. The Rams do often run a 3-4 defense in games, even if it is not the base defense. That is undebatable.
3. Long would not solely play a 3-4 end spot. The team mixes up the 4-3 and 3-4, as I said. In addition, there’s no reason to think that Long couldn’t put on a bit of bulk before the season started. Carriker added 10 pounds after the draft last year.
4. A small middle backer? This differs how from the Rams running ‘Spoon in the middle? I’ve seen Witherspoon get bowled over by interior linemen far too many times. I’d like him back on the outside, where he belongs.
5. You point out the flaws of Connor and Lofton, and say they wouldn’t fit the system. Perhaps that’s true in their rookie seasons; neither would be a guy you expect to go out and immediately play in a Pro Bowl, like Patrick Willis did. But to suggest that neither player could develop the skills necessary to succeed in this system is questionable logic. You’re willing to wait on Avery; why not wait on these defensive guys?
Also, ‘Spoon and Tinoisamoa may have contracts, yes, but there’s that issue that you typically have three backers on the field. Is Culberson the answer? Is Draft the answer? Are Vobora and Chamberlain the answer? I don’t see any of those options as sure-fire bets. I’d take Lofton or Connor over any of them. And how can you be so set with Tinoisamoa in the starting lineup when he’s missed 12 games the past two seasons?
I wouldn’t jump to conclusions. I can assure that I’ve done at least as much research as you, read as many scouting reports as you, watched as much of the draft coverage as you. And I’ve certainly watched as much Rams football the last several seasons as anyone alive. The posts on this site are the product of a lot of work, and the information I don’t put in here is largely a space issue. Don’t ever make the mistake of thinking the posts that I or any other writer on this site aren’t well-informed. You may disagree, but that’s a matter of opinion.
May 1st, 2008 at 1:54 pm
And to Mr. Um -
Again, I think you’re focusing on the wrong point, but there is no doubt in my mind that Connor is not overrated. In fact, given his third round status, I’d say he’s underrated. I don’t know how much Penn State football you watched this season, but Connor flat out makes plays. His 40 time may not be stellar, but the guy has his nose in seemingly every tackle. Not every linebacker can fly around the field like Urlacher. I think Connor can and will be a very capable middle linebacker in this league. Give me a football player over a workout wonder any day of the week.
May 1st, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Sorry, I didn’t think I was being mean spirited.
Yes, the game is to get the player you want but while attempting to avoid over paying. But, the key is to GET THE PLAYER.
Fans should be highly upset if they discovered that the Rams missed out on obtaining the player(s) they spent all this time and money scouting on a gamble based upon the perceived value or scouting report of a few $6.99 draft magazines or free draftnik websites. Both, of which, don’t have nearly the info of the NFL teams, nor have any idea how each of the 32 different teams rates these players.
My guess is that fans read and go by these draft guides, but NFL team do not, nor shouldn’t. They go by their own 32 different opinions on these players. With that in mind, it’s extremely questionable for anyone to even suggest that a player could be had a full round later as no one but God Almightly would even know.
On to the 3-4.
It had been speculated that Haslett would want to move to the 3-4 defense, but Haslett has only been quoted as saying that he wanted and would continue to use it from time to time, but that it would be become a base defense. I’ve even posted these actual quotes on a couple of Rams message boards.
But, let’s say that this plan was scrapped early this offseason, as you suggest. What since would it make this late in the offseason “to attempt” to draft players to play something already scrapped?
Other quick notes:
- Long a better fit at 3-4 DE than Little or Hall? Didn’t know that comparison was ever made by anyone, but none of them fit the position. Long’s college coach Al Groh even stated that he’s better as an outside rushing in that type of scheme in the NFL. Even compared him to Pat OLB Mike Vrabel.
- Witherspoon is bigger and faster than Connor. So if he’s getting “bowled over” in the middle what do you think would happen to Conner? Rams are set at WLB and MLB.
- It’s questionable that Connor & Lofton will get faster after their rookie seasons and Haslett’s defense relys upon speed AND cover skills at the MLB position.
-Finally, the days where teams typically have 3 LBs on the field are long gone. Outside of the Tampa 2 set, in today’s game, nickel backs can be on the field just as much or more than the 3rd LB they replace.
Sorry. And I don’t mean to appear mean spirited, but the comments I have read have lead me to question just how well informed……..well nevermind.
May 1st, 2008 at 10:38 pm
(Correction)
……but Haslett has only been quoted as saying that he wanted and would continue to use it from time to time, but that it wouldN’T be become a base defense.
(next correction)
What sENSe would it make this late in the offseason “to attempt” to draft players to play something already scrapped?
(next correction)
Long’s college coach Al Groh even stated that he’s better as an outside rushing END (meaning OLB) in that type of scheme in the NFL.
I’ll try to slow down next time.
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:06 am
Not sure if you were aware, but the Rams actually primarily rely on a scouting service.
When I said Haslett scrapped the plan, I was referring to the quote you bring up. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt on your misunderstanding.
The comparison isn’t between Long and Little/Hall; I was just pointing out that those two generally played the end spots when the Rams were in a 3-4 last season and are even poorer fits than Long. No one (myself included) is making the case for Long as a true 3-4 end right now.
Connor is two inches taller than Witherspoon and roughly the same weight. Also, as much as I like Witherspoon, I think that ‘Spoon tends to go missing at stretches in games, especially when the team is down by more than a touchdown. Connor, on the other hand, had only two games of fewer than five tackles in his entire collegiate career. In addition, I think Connor gets a bad rap as being unathletic. Sure, he’s not the strongest, fastest, etc., guy on the field, but he did run a 4.6 40 and had a 35-inch vertical jump. My point was merely that Witherspoon could be more effective in his natural position on the outside and that the Rams could stand to draft a true inside backer. I don’t know why we’re focusing on Connor and Lofton specifically. And don’t forget that Witherspoon was also drafted in the third round, so there were knocks on him as well.
I’ll concede your point on the prevalence of nickel and even dime sets. But there are just as many sets that have three or more linebackers, even outside the base 4-3 or 3-4 defenses. Ever see that six linebacker set?
It’s really grating to read you continually question my grasp of the information at hand and intelligence. You’ve made nearly as many mischaracterizations as I have, yet I have the class to not turn this into a personal attack.
May 2nd, 2008 at 7:16 am
The Rams player evaluation process involves the use of a scouting services, actual scouts, and their coaching staff at the time. But, I have my doubts that it involves $6.99 draft mags and that anyone should bank on in determing where a player should be selected.
Anyway, I agree that Witherspoon would be more effective on the outside. But so would Connor. And both at WLB. Not SLB (Big difference). Problem is, the Rams already have a WLB in Pisa Tinoisamoa.
Also Witherspoon’s (being shorter) body type is more stout and he goes about 240-245. Connor is closer to someone like Tommy Polley and he goes about 230 or so.
6 LB set? Not with a healthy Leonard Little and Chris Long on the roster. And that wasn’t the case last year. Either way, to use such high draft choices for a set so infrequently used wouldn’t be very wise.
I’m sorry if you believe that this has become a personnal attack. That has never been my intention whatsoever. I simply disagree with a majority of what you have posted under this topic as a lot of it just doesn’t make any sense to me.
I’ll go away now.
Sorry.
May 2nd, 2008 at 7:41 am
I was not actually suggesting the Rams use a six linebacker set, just pointing out that 1. it exists and 2. there are as many creative sets with three or more linebackers as there are with fewer. It seems that every time I write something, the point I’m trying to make is eschewed to argue an irrelevant detail.
Draft strategy is largely a matter of opinion anyway. This has become a useless disagreement. I’m surprised you’ve devoted so much time to it in the first place.
May 4th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Whew !!!!…why don’t you guys go out and get a pizza and a brew !!?
May 5th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Why don’t we wait to see how he is first??? Just a thought.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:12 am
(1) I have to respect the Rams going with Long. Dorsey lasted til #5 for a reason, although he very well may turn out to be the better player. But Long has the perfect character and work ethic and has speed and has improved dramatically year after year. Quite apart from helping the team’s “culture”, at worst he’s Grant Winstrom and at best he could be better than Howie.
(2) I like what I read about Avery. Although the pick may have been a reach, he probably wouldn’t have lasted til the 3rd round and I doubt trading into the middle of the 2nd round would have been worth the risk. He has good character and work ethic and top-end speed and is very agile. Good hands. He is not big, but not 5′9″ 175 either. I have to think he’ll improve his route running. My one concern is that he has weight room strength but not power on the field, so that he will have problems with bigger corners and will be tackled too easily. He certainly didn’t look like Terrell Owens on his Youtube clip. Still, most big gains come from a receiver catching the ball on the run and streaking down the field untouched and he’s got that.
(3) As for the rest of the draft picks, it seems like the Rams did a good job of drafting for need and getting good value, while continuing to add good “character” guys. Still, I’m not optomistic about King - he’s fast but not clear a natural football player - but a good pick.
(4) I think Vince Hall was a wonderful free agent signing. Coach Foster at VT says he’s the best defensive player he’s ever had. I think if his knee recovers 100% - and it should - he could be a wonderful player for the Rams. The kid can play football. I hear he runs a slow 40 but he certainly played against plenty of speed in college and did well. I’m certainly rooting for him.
May 10th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Hi guys-
I’ve been a solid rams fan since bout’ 1958, been thru all the ups and downs, 399,994 blogs, tips, Drafts, news flashes and all the other stuff that bubbles to the top before every season. But I gotta say, (Pant-Pant) I can’t wait to see who I’m gonna blane if the Rams perform poorly in 08′. But reguardless-I’d rather be 0-16 as a RAM than 16-0 as a Whiner!
Leave a comment