How did the Ravens become a 4 - 10 team?
Here we go again. Another week, another Ravens loss, and more second guessing of Brian Billick. This time it was the decision to kick the field goal late in the game vs go for the TD. Tonight I want to take a look inside the numbers and maybe we can understand the most important question the Ravens and us fans have, how? I am a how person. I want to know how a team goes from a leagues contender to a league joke in one year. So I want to see if analyzing the stats will help figure that out. Tonight I will look at the offense, tomorrow night the defense, special teams, and the misc numbers that matter.
FG OR TD: I will go on record as saying, as much as I hate to admit it, that Brian made the right call based on the situation. Fourth down, no time outs, rookie QB, an inept offense, defense expecting a run, etc.. There are so many reason to name that he should have done exactly what he did. Kick the field goal, and even though it was on the road, go for overtime. The only other possible option I can see would be to take one very quick shot first. Tell Troy Smith under know circumstances look for the second option. If the first option is not there throw it over the end zone. This is the situation where every team should have those plays drawn up to get the TD, apparently the Ravens don’t. How many times have we seen them this season, and all of the other seasons down within the 10 and settle for a FG. There have been a lot of times this season where I wanted to ring Brian Billick’s neck, but this isn’t one of them. In order to trust the offense to be able to get that TD, the offense needs to prove it can score TDs consistently when the game ISN’T on the line.
INSIDE THE OFFENSIVE NUMBERS: If you look at the Ravens offensive numbers this season, well you don’t have to look at the stats to know they have issues. But I want to anyway. This team CAN move the ball down the field. I know I have seen them do it. To find out why they can not score I want to compare this seasons 4 - 10 effort to last seasons 13 - 3 final record. Last season as we all know the Baltimore Ravens went 13 - 3 to the playoffs and gave hope that this would be another great season.
2006 2007
Total yards per game 317 300
Passing yards per game 215 214
Passing TDs 21 11
Rushing yards per game 102 107
Rushing TDs 11 9
Time of possession (per game) 32:49 31:02
Imterceptions: 14 14 (thru 14 games)
Fumbles lost overall team: 9 22
Sacks 17 35
Points per game (team) 22 17.3
QB
Kyle Boller
Att/Comp 55/33 275/168
PCT 60 61.1
Yards 485 1743
Yards per Comp 6.52 6.3
Steve McNair
Att/Comp 468/295 205/133
PCT 63 64.9
Yards 3050 1113
Yards per Comp 8.82 5.4
RB
Jamal Lewis/McGahee
Carries 314 289
Yards 1132 1197
Carries per game 19.6 20
Yards per carry 3.6 4.1
Receivers
Heap
Receptions 73 23
Yards per reception 10.5 10.4
Mason
Receptions 68 92
Yards per reception 11.0 10.0
Clayton
Receptions 67 43
Yards per receptions 14.0 10.8
What does all of this mean to me? Well a couple obvious differences: Points per game is a result, not a cause. Turnovers are a result, not a cause. Lower average yards per pass, result not cause. The loss of Heap most of the season has really hurt the offense. His loss of production causes an instant drop in yardage and points. Mason picked up a lot of the slack her but that just made it easier for defenses to cover the pass. I said it before, cover Mason under ten yards and stop the Raven’s offense. The other problem being Mason has had to make up Clayton too, his numbers are way off. So I can say Heap’s injury is a reason why the offense has struggled. Sacks!! 35 - 17. That is an average per game of 1 / 2.5. That doesn’t take into consideration the hurries that did not lead to sacks. So the constant pressure on the QB has led to more dump passes, more rushed passes, and more turnovers. Now I know it appeared that there were fumbles that were unforced. But if you walk out of your house every morning and get hit in the face, you may try to get out of the house earlier after a while. If you know the pressure is coming, you will rush to get rid of the ball. This causes fumbles and interceptions. It also allows for less TDs. So a big contributing factor is the lack of production from the offensive line. So maybe it isn’t necessarily the QB or the coach. Virtually every number this season matches last season except sacks, turnovers, and yards per pass. The was a marked improvement in the running game, proving that Willis McGahee was worth the trouble.
My conclusion: Injuries and Offensive line (pass rush) killed this offense
Tomorrow as I said the defense, special teams, and misc.
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, December 18th, 2007 at 11:27 pm and is filed under Mike Zoran, Ravens Roost Writer Articles / Opinions.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
THE AUTHOR
RECENT ARTICLES BY DIVISION RIVALS
ARCHIVE
SPONSORS
Online Seats
Baltimore Ravens football washington nationals Tickets
Ticket Specialists
Baltimore Ravens Tickets Baltimore orioles Tickets
Coast to Coast Tickets
NFL Football Tickets Baltimore Ravens Football Tickets Super Bowl Tickets College Football Tickets Baltimore Orioles Tickets
Great Seats
Baltimore Ravens Tickets Tickets to the Baltimore Orioles Washington Redskins home games Tickets to the Washington Nationals DC/MD/VA Sports Events
18 Responses to “How did the Ravens become a 4 - 10 team?”
December 18th, 2007 at 11:38 pm
I need to learn how to line that stuff up better
December 19th, 2007 at 2:12 am
There’s no arguing your mathematics, Mike Z. So much of the problem of losing is in the math, as you point out. But what the math doesn’t show is the TIMING of the big plays (or lack thereof) that killed us this year. It’s not as much what the offense or defense did as WHEN they did it. And the turnovers we lost at critical points of so many games is not adequately addressed in your analysis. You point out the fumbles lost, but you don’t point out the critical times in the turning points of the games in which they were lost. Who cares if you lose a fumble if the score is Baltimore 35, Them 7? It seems nearly all our critical turnovers (fumbles and interceptions) happened this year with the game literally on the line. I swear, with a little more luck, we could be sitting at 9-5 right now if it weren’t for the untimeliness of those turnovers. And that doesn’t even count the insanity of that bizarre kick off the uprights that beat us or the bad-snap kick we just barely missed to win in Miami.
December 19th, 2007 at 8:43 am
I see that Atlanta are looking at bringing some chap called Bill Parcells into their organisation with what look like dictatorial powers. I was thinking that might be an option for Baltimore, since it seems this Parcells fellow is recognised as one of the best talent spotters out there. And he is, of course, one of the mighty Belichick’s old mentors.
December 19th, 2007 at 9:07 am
Wacko, shhhh. Dont steal all the thunder. I am not that anal to think the entire answer is in the stats. That would be the misc I hinted at. You got to know that my opinion will be in there somewhere. But wanted to come up with something new for you all. Writing “Ravens play blah this week. They need to run blah blah, Offensive line needs to blah blah. Prediction blah blah” Get old after awhile in a losing streak.
I did not hear that about Bill Parcels, Andrew. Dang, scooped by the Brit.I do not know if Parcels would be a good fit into the team.
I will go on record as saying Bill Cowher would NOT fit into this team. You do not go to your biggest rival for a coach. Raven’s fans greatly unlike (wont say hate) the Steelers. Look what happened to the Orioles and Lee Mazilli (Yankee). Mazilli just never meshed with the players in the club house. He was a Yankee and is a Yankee. Cowher is a Steeler, and will always be a Steeler. Coming to Baltimore would not work with him. I am suprised people even mention his name. Is doesn’t matter anyway because Billick will be back.
December 19th, 2007 at 10:26 am
Here’s the Parcells story:
http://mvn.com/newswire/2007/12/18/next-stop-for-bill-parcells-atlanta-falcons/
He’d fit above Billick and if Billick didn’t like it, he could always resign. Parcells could rebuild your whole franchise - I guess that’s what they’re looking for him to do in Atlanta.
And I gather the current Dallas team, which is doing rather well, is largely the work of this Parcells character.
December 19th, 2007 at 10:37 am
Good story, Mike. I liked the analysis. I’ll “shhh” too, because like Wacko, I suspect turnovers have lot to do with killing Raven drives. I’ll wait for your next story.
I also believe that the line causes 51 percent everything that happens — and does not happen — on the offense. It’s the first place to look for an explanation.
Bill Parcells is the wrong solution for Baltimore. You have a first class front office. Atlanta is a mess and in need of a fixer-upper.
December 19th, 2007 at 2:44 pm
Bill Parcels is the Pat Riley of the NFL. He has a successful history, and would wnat total control of the team. That would probably not work with Ozzie. The Ravens need someone who can control the events on the field.
Parcels is also a dictator to an extent. He does not care who you are. A few weeks ago I heard him say he would have traded Ray Lewis after the comments he made about Billick. He said every once in a while a veteran player forgets he is a player and tries to take control of the team. Not on his temas they dont. That is not a direct quote, but you get the gist.
Parcels way has worked, but with the veterans and office the Ravens have, I do not think it would mesh well. The Ravens do not need an overhaul. They are not the Orioles yet. There are a few key pieces that need to be added and/or changed. That is where I am going with this “stat analysis” trilogy
December 19th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
Scooped by the Brit, indeed! Andrew is waking in the morning while we are still asleep so he is getting the late news first! (5 hour time difference, I suppose, in Andrew’s favor)….Good scoop, Andrew, but I don’t think the dour and grumpy Parcells would be a good fit in this town.
December 19th, 2007 at 6:30 pm
Looks like Parcells isn’t going to Atlanta anyway - he’s reported to have turned down their advances and is considering an earlier offer from Miami.
December 19th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
Anyone think Andre will be drafted by the Ravens?
I read this on a Andre Woodson site.
There are rumors swirling that the Ravens may lose franchise left OT Jonathan Ogden to retirement. If that happens, it’s possible that the Ravens may look to the draft to add a high-end tackle, though they landed Maryland OT Jared Gaither in the 2007 Supplemental Draft, and if he has developed as they hoped he would, it’s possible that Gaither may be starting at left offensive tackle in 2008.
The Ravens only have one major free agent to be in Terrell Suggs. They could go with a linebacker here, since in this mock the big names (Dan Connor, James Laurinaitis, etc.) would all be on the board. But, with the Ravens having so much difficulty performing on offense, and Steve McNair turning 35 this upcoming February, a quarterback like Woodson would be a great addition to the team. Brian Brohm would be a consideration here as well, but I’d think that Woodson would get the nod over Brohm with his pinpoint accuracy. We shall see.
Kyle Boller played a great game against the Patriots two weeks ago, but he came off of that game with a three interception debacle against Indianapolis on Sunday night. I strongly suspect that Boller will not be in the team’s long-term future.
An “X Factor” is the presence of Troy Smith on the roster, and how the team evaluates his development will also play a role in what they do in this spot.
Is this possible? I think he would be great for the Ravens bad for Andrea!
December 19th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Oh and they finally responded to one of my many posts on the New England part of this site. But only to tell me I was spelling offence incorrectly.
December 19th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
Andrew,
I certainly would take offence to that! Those snotty New Englanders are an inhospitable bunch.
Mike,
I’m sure if you wanted you could make this a 10 part series dealing with all the problems this season. That is the game of football, there are so many things that can go wrong, and when they go wrong across the board this is the result.
Scoop! (Not really)
There is a good chance that Troy Smith may get his first start of the season as Kyle Boller is still having headaches and sensitivity to light, and hasn’t practiced. It could be Billick’s way of inserting Smith without making Boller look bad. Billick has always protected his players, I guess that’s why they play so hard for him. Yeah.
December 19th, 2007 at 6:59 pm
Asked if I was from New England and replied that I was from old England, you know the place, where English originated and where offence has a “c” not an “s”.
Anyway, I think this Parcells would be a good fit for Baltimore. I know you think a minor tweak here, or another there and all be well with the world, but will it?
And there’s nothing wrong with being dour. When I was just a young pup, Liverpool were the kings of the beautiful game and they were managed (we have managers, not head coaches) was a dour fellow by the name of Bob Paisley.
Paisley would’ve struggled to function in these days of mass media coverage. In those days there were no real televised press conferences, just a few journalists with note pads. And Paisley struggled to cope with that. In fact, half the time he’d just mumble something and then say that they (the press) knew what he wanted to say. He’d then walk off leaving a bemused press corps to try and agree on what he wanted to say and how he said it.
But do you know what was best about Bob Paisley? He just didn’t care about the opposition and what they were going to do. His simple home-spun philosophy was that his team would play the game the way they wanted to play it and the opposition could make of that what they wanted.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:40 am
Mike I thought about making it a 23 part novel but decided against it. Really planned on one article, but looking up the stats took too much time and had to split it.
Andrew, you remind me of something I used to tell my British employees when I was working in England. I used to clown with them and ask them if they knew how to speak proper English…..fun times. You are always more than welcome to write here. I do not see a day when we wont respond. I am sure Mike feels the same way.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:20 am
That’s good to know, young fellow, because it’s been suggested over in Patriot land that I go elsewhere to make my comments. Apparently, I’m morphing into a troll.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:18 am
well that sounds like something I have said many times…..The Ravens are a running football team. They need plan to run the ball, tell the other team they are running the ball, and then run the ball. Make the other team STOP YOUR GAME
December 20th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
When the New England Patriots return someday to their inept form of decades past (and they will be a lousy team again in the not-so-distant future), their vacant fan sites will be begging for posts from readers outside Patriot Nation—so be patient, Andrew, you will get your revenge.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
With Billick returning as head coach next year, opposite of our fans wishes; could we at least put some fire under the asses of the line, special teams and secondary coaches?
The offensive line really does need help/change.
Leave a comment