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The Redskins, the playoffs and Tampa, too

The Dallas Cowboys essentially won the NFC East by virtue of its sweep of the Eagles, Giants and Redskins over the past four games. [Excuse me as I stifle my gag reflex after writing that.]

With the loss to the Iggles and the ‘Boys, the Redskins lost their last chance to sweep a NFC East rival and steal the division. If they can win out over the Giants and the Cowboys as the season wanes, the moral satisfaction of a .500 division record can be theirs.

Winning out is the best chance to make the playoffs. Other pundits are working the numbers calculating the path to a wild card. None of those plots are more dubious than the tie-breaking scenarios involving the Detroit Lions.

Alert! Alert! Massively premature presumption imminent!

People say the Skins have the tie-breaking advantage over the Lions by virtue of their early season win. Problem is, they say that as though the Redskins already achieved the same won-loss record as Detroit. Last I checked, the Lions were a game better than the Skins going into this weekend’s games. The Packers whupped the Lions Thursday, but the Skins have yet to play and beat the Buccaneers to tie Detroit’s record.

Presumption is dangerous in sport. To make the playoff, the Redskins have to win out. Six in a row, or we don’t go, to mimic the team’s motto of late 2005. That brings us to a persistent playoff roadblock, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Tampa, the pseudo-rival

Matthew Postins at BucsBlitz.com says that the Redskins-Buccaneer series is not a rivalry. Oh really? Washington and Tampa Bay have all of the tell-tales of one: consistent schedule, post-season implications, see-saw battles, controversy. What’s more. Tampa Bay plays like a NFC East team, especially their snot-knocking defense, tops in the NFC going into the weekend.

Tampa Bay is even located in the East. Logic says the Buccaneers should be in the NFC East and Dallas in the South. DC, Dallas, Philadelphia and New York would revolt at the notion. We love the teams we love to hate, and we all hate the Cowboys. 

The Buccaneers, at 6-4, lead the NFC South at the moment, but a slip here or there could leave them chasing the wild card. That means that Sunday’s game has as much tie-breaking implications as anything involving Detroit. 

The Pewter Pirates and the Burgundy & Gold may be playing for the same playoff spot. That happens in rivalries, like with the Bucs and Skins. And I can’t say there won’t be another controversial zebra call. Since its Tampa and Washington, I half expect it.

I can guarantee there will be no repeat of the Sean Taylor - Michael Pittman spitting incident. Taylor is OUT Sunday and it looks like Pittman will be.

Beating the Bucs defense

There are only three teams in the NFL who can do to the Redskins what the Cowboys did last week. The Patriots have already done it. The Colts are not on the schedule.

The Buccaneers are not on that list. Never-the-less, Joey Galloway is a capable deep threat [40, 711 yds, 17.8 ave, 5 TDs]. In Jeff Garcia and Ike Hilliard, the Buccaneers have effective producers who are very familiar with the Redskins.

Tampa doesn’t score much. They don’t need to. They’ve held opponents to 15 points per game. Tampa is tougher defending the pass than the run, thanks partly to that other familiar name, Ronde Barber. You expect that of the team that perfected the “Tampa-two” coverage scheme.

The Cover-two, or Tampa-two, is designed for the defense to keep plays in front of them. They don’t want to get beat deep, but they do want turnovers, which the Tampa-two encourages. The Bucs have 10 interceptions and forced 14 fumbles.

Rookie Gaines Adams, who was on the Redskins’ draftee target list, has 3.5 sacks. MLB Jarrett Ruud is the leading tackler [83], followed by hard-hitting OLB Derrick Brooks [73].

All things in balance

Washington expanded use of the no-huddle spread offense against Dallas. That delighted the fans, who clearly want to see a lot more of it. While pleased overall with Jason Campbell’s performance in the losing effort, Joe Gibbs was uncomfortable with Campbell’s 54 pass attempts.

He’s right. Games can go in any direction after the kick-off. Every defense seeks to take away your strength, so excessive dependence on the pass, or the run, only helps the other side beat you. Even passing teams, which the Redskins are not [yet], keep a rough balance between pass attempts and rushing attempts.

The coach-in-chief has had that conversation with Al Saunders by now. So, don’t be surprised to see a prominent role by Clinton Portis in this one. You can run on a Tampa-two. We are going to run.

Rushing the ball keeps the pass rush at bay and sometimes coaxes the safeties to play close to the line. That’s when you can beat them deep. However, Santana Moss’ game against Dallas is all on tape. I don’t think Tampa will play close to the line. They will stay back to contain Moss, at least until they assess his performance in the first half.

The receiver who can help you is the guy who can find the seam and catch the ball. Keenan McCardell is that guy. At age 37, I don’t want big yards-after-the-catch from McCardell. I want him to catch and stick — not cough up the ball when hit. Injuries to Brandon Lloyd and James Thrash forced the Skins to make more use of McCardell.  It was about time.

The curse of Campbell’s arm 

Speaking of not coughing up the ball, that’s something QB Jason Campbell has to work on. He has 8 interceptions to 11 touchdowns, but he’s also fumbled the ball five times in the last four games. All of them were lost. QB fumbles are the moral equivalent of interceptions.

That’s his main weakness and an eminently exploitable one. Defenses will not target Campbell so much as they target Campbell’s arm to force a turnover. He has to do better, perhaps by getting rid of the ball sooner. 

Redskins 14, Buccaneers 10.

Check out what local bloggers are saying about the Buccaneers at Atop the Crows Nest on MVN.com.
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FB Mike Sellers injured his back at Wednesday’s practice. He is Doubtful for the Tampa Bay game. The Redskins signed TE/H-back Brian Kozlowski to add depth to the position and made room on the roster by releasing WR Mike Farris.

The Redskins signed Farris only a week ago. Oh well, that’s the life of a pro player.

To see the Redskins injury report, look here.

This entry was posted on Friday, November 23rd, 2007 at 3:26 pm and is filed under Jason Campbell, Redskins, Washington Redskins, Joe Gibbs. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.