MVN - Most Valuable Network

For Redskins, Gibbs, Playoff Picture is Simple

“Playoffs? Don’t talk about playoffs. Are you kidding me? Playoffs? I’m just hoping we can win a game, another game.”-Jim Mora Sr. 

There are a lot of Mathmatical formulas that can determine the percentages of a team’s playoff possibilities, but those don’t really have any meaning to the average fan.  After all, we are spoonfed our NFL serving size one week at a time, and our perception of our team will be altered by every win and every loss.  Playoff odds can only rely on the past as an indicator, they can not predict the future.

The Redskins’ past has been especially unkind.  A top three strength of schedule has been compounded by injuries.  First to Randy Thomas and Jon Jansen in the first 3 halves of football this season.  Later to Carlos Rogers.  Corneilius Griffin has been banged up and ineffective of late.  Anthony Montgomery has hit the metaphorical “rookie wall,” here in his 2nd season.  Fred Smoot and Shawn Springs get banged up and head to the sidelines every other play, effectively making Leigh Torrance a starter.  And finally, once the injuries finally hit their max on this team, Sean Taylor gets shot in his own home.

It’s been an unlucky year, to say the least, for the Redskins.  It’s important to remember just how good this team was in the first month and a half of this season.  The defense, when healthy, was dominant if not flawed vs. the run, and the passing game has really been clicking since mid season.  In fact, it appeared in a two game stretch over the middle of this long year that the Redskins would half a running game. 

It’s imporant to remember the quality of the Miami Dolphins back in week one when Ronnie Brown and Trent Green gave the Dolphins a threat of having a top ten offense.  If Miami happens to go 0-16 this season, not a soul will remember that Ronnie Brown and Trent Green once played on this team, and took the Redskins to overtime when the Redskins were at their best.

It’s imporant to notice that Philadelphia, who back in week two got beaten at home by Washington, is right in the playoff hunt without their starting quarterback.  It’s important to note that Lions, who started 6-2, found nothing but a crushing defeat at Fed Ex field.

In the two losses in those first 5 games, it’s important to remember just how close those were to being wins, and just how the Redskins ran stride for stride, maybe even ahead of the NFC’s elite.

It’s important to remember all that because it’s all a distant memory, much like 2005.  This is a different team nowadays, much more reminisicent of the 2006 team.  And yet, the Redskins can still make the playoffs.

Although the Giants have far from secured a playoff spot, and in fact, are not a lock to finish outside of last in their own division, we’ll say for sake of argument that they will get the 5th seed.  That leaves eight teams competing for one playoff spot, currently held by Arizona; Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, Philadelphia, and finally the Redskins.

The Redskins hold head to head tiebreakers with the Cardinals and the Lions.  They still play Chicago and Minnesota.  Based on performance, Minnesota has to be considered the favorite going in.  They have a remaining schedule including no teams at or over .500, and are playing great football right now on both sides of the ball.

Which is exactly why the Redskins hold their own destiny to an extent.  Minnesota is a healthy football team who is playing better than we are in all phases of the game.  But unless there are considering mailing it in and running the table, they have to be looking at the Washington game on their schedule as a potential battle, and as a must win.

With three consecutive wins, the Redskins will effectively eliminate the Bears from the playoff picture (regardless of how Chicago plays in Weeks 15 and 16), all but certainly catch the Lions and Cards, both of whom they hold tiebreakers over, and also catch, if not pass Minnesota (the favorite), while holding the tiebreaker.  In fact, with Minnesota having to finish the season in Denver, the Redskins may not even need to win their last game to get into the playoffs, pending how Arizona does.  At the very least, three consecutive wins gives the Redskins a “one game playoff” against a Cowboys team who likely won’t have much to play for with homefield advantage locked up.

The key to this whole scenario is totally within the Redskins’ control, and that’s winning in the short term.  It all starts tonight with Chicago, and then continues with a much needed ten day rest before they face a reeling New York Giants club, and it concludes with a potential playoff showdown in the Metrodome on December 23.

Gibbs and the gang will take this one game at the time, and try to recover from the team’s current 4 game losing streak.  You have to feel that the team will benefit emotionally from the first win in the post-Sean Taylor era and will use any momentum gained from winning tonight as they prepare for a trip to New Jersey next week.

The playoffs start tonight for the Redskins, and at least for the next three weeks, it’s win or you’re out.  Redskins fans are just hoping that this team can win another game.

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 6th, 2007 at 12:12 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.