MVN - Most Valuable Network

Turns out that wasn’t what he meant at all. Snyder apparently meant continuity in player personnel more so than coaches or schemes based on the fact that he made a move with the offense that was the least continuity oriented of any move they could have made short of bringing June Jones back to the NFL. So does the Zorn era spell doom for Jason Campbell? Have the Washington Redskins sabotaged yet another potential solution to their QB problem as they so recently seemed to with Patrick Ramsey, or can Jason make the transition and possibly even become a better player because of it? There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic, but also quite a few reasons to feel optimistic. Let’s review some.

Pessimism

1) Jason is inaccurate.  Jason dramatically improved his completion percentage from 53.1% in 2006 to 60% in 2007. In the old days, 60% was quite good. Today 60% is merely adequate. 65% or more is what a difference-maker will complete. But accuracy is not just about catches and incompletions, and is not what is most worrisome here. This statistic has as much to do with receiver drops, reading defenses, and other issues. No, the complaint here is about simply putting the ball on target.

Far to many of Jason’s passes, especially on short and medium passes force the receiver to make dramatic adjustments to the ball. This turns what should be routine catch & run completions into difficult acrobatic receptions with little to no RAC (Run After Catch) yards. Jason flashes insane accuracy on some difficult passes, such as some of the intermediate and deep fades he threw in 2007 wherein the pass was dropped perfectly onto the outside shoulder of the receiver and was thrown early, well before the safety could get over to help. However, Jason has yet to show the ability to consistently place the ball right in the receivers frame without forcing him to break stride. The WCO demands this of its quarterbacks.

2) Jason has a slow delivery. This is another area that Jason showed major improvement in from 2006 to 2007, but more progress needs to be made. Jason is a long-armed QB, and this problem seems common to many similarly built QBs. Jason has a tendency to take the ball DOWN as he cocks his arm back at the start of his throwing motion, and arguably cocks his arm to far back. This is a very natural feeling motion, creating a windmill windup that feels like it is helping the power of the throw.

In fact, the extra motion exposes the ball to backside rushers resulting in strips. Jason was tied for 2nd for the most fumbles with Eli Manning in 2007 with 13. Only Jon Kitna with 16 had more. With only 13 starts, Jason started the 2nd fewest games of any QB with double digit fumbles (Josh McCown of OAK being the fewest). This is despite having the 12th lowest sack percentage. Those statistics certainly don’t prove causation, and the sack percentage is a mediocre stat for measuring pressure, but I think it does paint the picture that Jason fumbled more often than average when contacted, and there is reason to believe his windup throwing motion was a major contributing factor.

The extra motion also slows the ball’s delivery. While Jason’s ample arm strength can make up for this delay on longer passes, a slower delivery gives the defenders an extra moment to react, reducing yards after catch and possibly allowing them to contest the reception.

 It is also likely that the extra motion is impairing his accuracy. The more exaggerated a movement is, the more natural variation is going to creep in. Any golfer can can attest that a few centimeters or degrees in a swing can change the trajectory of the ball by yards, and the principle is the same (though less dramatic) in a passing motion.

3) Jason does not make quick decisions or anticipate receivers coming uncovered as well as a West Coast QB will need. Watching the difference in playing style between Todd Collins and Jason, one can draw a pretty safe comparison and see that Jason was tending to drop back and watch for open receivers, while Todd Collins was dropping back, analyzing the defense and making his decision before the receiver uncovered.

He knew from the responsibilities, or how the coverage was shaded one way or another who was going to come open and when.  He could throw the ball so that when the receiver turned to find the football it was already halfway there. Close enough that the defense had not had time to close the separation yet. The results are uncontested catches and great run after catch opportunities. Jason has flashed this a few times on some short out routes and slants, but has not done it with consistency.

4) Jason has a million voices in his head. Jason Campbell is about to learn from the 7th different offensive coordinator in the last 8 years. This is far from the ideal formula for developing a young quarterback. It means Campbell has almost certainly spent much time each year learning a particular nuance or way of doing things, and before he could master it, was yanked in a different direction and told the opposite.

It means most of Campbell’s time on the field is spent remembering which receivers are going where rather than concentrating on the nuances of what the defense is doing and knowing, almost as part of his muscle memory, what to do with the football the instant he diagnoses what the defense is doing. Instead Jason almost certainly has to think and remember on the field things that he should do by instinct because he has done them a million times in practice and games before.

5) How long is Jason’s leash?  Right now, I think it is safe to say that most Redskin fans were impressed by Campbell in 2007. Even the notoriously pessimistic Steve Czaban of SportsTalk 980 speaks well of Campbell on his radio shows. He flashed serious ability before his injury, and though he lost some games with late interceptions, most fans recognize that young QBs do these sorts of things.

Should Jason struggle in 2008 with the new offense and playing style, how long will fans remain patient? It seems likely that most Redskin fans will be patient, but Jason has the misfortune of having been significantly outplayed by Todd Collins last year. With a veteran who fans will suspect can get it done, how long will they wait for a youngster who is not getting it done, even when a quality excuse exists?

 This is not merely academic. Should the fans start turning, and the loss column grow, how long before the locker room begins whispering and wondering how much better they would be with Collins starting. Jason has only started 20 games so far despite being about to enter his 4th year in the league. 4th year QBs are expected to start producing consistently. Campbell may not be ready to do that.

Optimism

1) Most of Jason’s flaws are fixable through hard work and experience. The anticipation, delivery, accuracy, and learning of the offense are partly going to come with experience, and good coaching, but they are also going to come from hard work and repetition on Jason’s part. Last year, Al Saunders, Joe Gibbs, and pretty much everyone associated with the team singled Jason out for working his tail off during the offseason to improve. Already this offseason Bram Weinstein and Larry Michaels have mentioned how often Jason has been at and around Redskins Park either working out and rehabbing or meeting with coach Zorn. It appears that Jason understands that a key element to being a high caliber QB in the NFL will be out-working the competition in the offseason. Jim Zorn may be an ideal teacher during this process as well.

2) Jason actually has a head start on the offense for two reasons. First, Jason’s senior year at Auburn was run under a West Coast system. It also happened to be far and away Jason’s best year at Auburn. Certainly an NFL level version of the offense is going to be more intricate and more demanding, but it is an important jump start on the terminology and other changes that are coming, and the fact that he thrived in it implies that he may be a better fit that the abstract archetypes imply.

Also, Al Saunders offense, while typically referred to as coming from the Coryell tree, is almost a hybrid of the Coryell and West Coast. Saunders places a similar emphasis on rhythm and accuracy based passing, and anticipation as Zorn will. While Campbell never excelled in these areas, he has at least been drilled and preached to about them for two years. It is a less abrupt transition than going from Gibbs’ version of the Coryell all the way to a West Coast philosophy would have been. Indeed Todd Collins will probably do as much to teach Campbell as Zorn would have since Zorn will likely be busy with head coaching duties much of the time.

3) Jason has flashed some significant features of an up and coming QB. Jason showed remarkable progress from 2006 to 2007. Jason carried the sluggish Redskin offense through several early season contests while the running game struggled. He flashed the ability to rally the team late in the game to put them in position to win, even though he went on to lose a few on his own mistakes.  He has shown the ability, especially in 2006 when he didn’t even know the offense, to improvise when the design of the play breaks down.  He has flashed the pocket presence to know when to step up in order to help his tackles run speed rushers past him harmlessly, though he actually seemed to regress a bit in this area in 2007.

Optimism vs Pessimism

So should Redskins fans feel optimistic for having a young QB who might finally end the carousel at the sports’ most important position, or pessimism for the front office having pulled the rug out from under his development just as he was showing signs of coming on?  We honestly won’t know for some time yet.  Perhaps not until 2009.  Personally, I am leaning towards optimism.  What about you?