Why Don’t NFL Scouts Like Colt Brennan?
NFL Scouting is a tricky issue to evaluate. In a multi-million dollar industry, they don’t make a whole lot of money. Most scouts do what they do because they love what they do. That much is commendable really.
But NFL Scouts are rarely held responsible for their own evaluations. And that has led to a culture where no one really improves over time. It’s a culture where doing it their way has become more important than doing the best job they can.
No one is expected to be perfect — but a better track record would be nice for those teams that perennially draft busts and finish below .500. Scott Campbell, the former director of college scouting — now the director of player personnel — for the Redskins has done a great job in his craft, and the Redskins have avoided drafting a major bust since 2002 with Taylor Jacobs.
Ultimately though, every team in the NFL had a scouting consensus that Colt Brennan was not a first day pick. Not even a first 5 round pick. Brennan wasn’t the only Quarterback with stats that indicate NFL success who slipped in the draft. Green Bay and Miami landed prototype franchise QBs in the second round. Andre Woodson, a 3.5 year starter at Kentucky, actually fell further than Brennan. I could do a very long post on why all these guys got overlooked by scouts, but only one of those guys is a Redskin, so I will focus on him.
First a disclaimer: The fatal error many scouts make comes when they just don’t have enough film to grade on, but pass judgment anyway. Obviously this isn’t the case with Brennan. Colt was one of the most celebrated/nitpicked QBs in modern college history. Scouts simply just don’t like him. Obviously it’s not his body of work, that’s astounding. There’s another reason that makes scouts shy away from him. Could it be:
Brennan Struggled in Big Games
This is a horrible argument. For the longest time, this was the knock on Peyton Manning — the greatest QB in modern history. The reason this is such a bad argument is that a “big game” is totally 100% subjective. Certainly, Bowl Games should be considered big games, but what about major conference games? Heck, what about every D-I college football game every played?! I’d say that’s pretty large scale. Any scout who is willing to limit his tape evaluation to 2-3 games is going to be wrong a large percentage of the time, pure and simple.
Colt’s Numbers are Inflated by the Spread Offense
This makes a little more sense, but the concept of inflated numbers is a bit odd. Obviously, counting stats like touchdowns, yards, and interceptions can be inflated by the amount of times a guy throws, and research has shown that a guy who throws 60 times a game gains no more college experience than a QB who starts the same amount of games, but only throws 35 times a game.
Rate stats, such as yards per attempt, and completion percentage, can not be inflated. For those, the more times a player throws, the stronger our confidence gets in the accuracy of the number. Colt Brennan’s completion percentage isn’t quite as impressive as his TD totals suggest it should be, but for his career, it’s still in the upper 60’s. I mean, at the very least, he deserved strong consideration in the second round based on that alone.
Colt didn’t play any serious competition at Hawaii
This is a legitimate reason for concern, but scouts are seemingly missing the point: this is a reason for re-evaluation–not to write a guy off. Chad Pennington, Jim Kelly, and Daunte Culpepper all came out of small schools to face pretty good competition. Maybe the quality of competition that Joe Flacco saw in the Atlantic-10 was a tad better than what Brennan saw in the WAC, but it doesn’t make sense to totally write Brennan off while drafting Flacco 18th overall.
Colt has Skeletons in his Closet
I hate the whole concept of character issues affecting draft stock. These kids are young, feel invulnerable, and are prone to making mistakes. Brennan got booted from Colorado for misconduct, spent a year in JUCO, and ended up at Hawaii, where he went on to become a record setting passer. Are we seriously going to confuse Brennan for a guy with a long list of Felonies?
Players, QBs especially, who play in JUCO are Ill-Equipped to Develop in the NFL
This is an interesting one. Brennan transferred to JUCO after the 2003 season, spent the 2004 season as a JUCO QB, before walking on at Hawaii in 2005. The knock on JUCO QBs is pretty damning: That the skills learned at small programs by these coaches equip players to succeed in the college game, but actually hurt their pro prospects. This is probably the most legitimate criticism of Brennan, as the skill set that made him successful in college might not translate well to the NFL. It is a rare case, to be certain, that a JUCO passer ends up two years later tearing up and burning all the college record books, but it’s sort of like playing in the arena league for the NFL: you get valuable experience while you are there — but the longer you stay, the tougher the transition to the next level will be. For Brennan, the bill may be coming due about now.
With that said, how many NFL scouts do you think went through this type of thought process when grading the guy? If you said none, keep reading.
Brennan lacks a big arm
Who cares? The NFL is so timing based that any QB who can throw the ball 30 yards on a rope has as good of an arm as is needed to succeed. That includes…any serious pro QB prospect.
————————————-
Scouts seem to want to write Brennan off rather than evaluate him. He probably wouldn’t develop even if given the chance, that’s just the nature of players like him. This case, though, is incredibly intriguing. I mean, Brennan’s numbers alone means he’s earned a tongue in cheek shot at NFL stardom. He’s probably not going to get it in Washington, but he figures to succeed Todd Collins as the team’s backup QB, and just a small sample of success is all he will need for the Redskins to be able to turn around and deal him for a day one pick to a team who needs a starting QB.
The hype surrounding him should work in Washington’s favor here, and hopefully Colt gets his shot. He’s simply not the pro prospect Jason Campbell is, and he never will be. But he’s a good prospect in his own right, and the Redskins should be happy to have him.
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42 Responses to “Why Don’t NFL Scouts Like Colt Brennan?”
May 20th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
And a team like the Jets or the Chiefs could be happy to trade for him in 2010.
May 20th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
[…] NFL Scouting is a tricky issue to evaluate. In a multi-million dollar industry, they don’t make a whole lot of money.http://mvn.com/nfl-redskins/2008/05/20/why… […]
May 20th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
You kinda ignored the fact he weighed in at a Buck 85. That’s HS Qb weight, not pro.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Good article, but a few corrections are needed. Brennans career completion percentage was 70.4%.
The 2007 schedule sucked, because nobody wanted to play Hawaii including Oregon, Oregon St., Michigan, and Michigan St. which paid $250K to pull out the game. But you need to look at his entire career which included impressive performances against Alabama, Purdue, Oregon St., Arizona St., USC, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Michigan St.
In refering to Brennan’s stats, nobody mentions that Brennan broke the career passsing efficiency record with a 167.65; another stat that cannot be inflated, and usually drops significantly when a QB throws as much as Brennan did.
The JUCO comment is interesting, but keep in mind that Brennan was developed by June Jones, a former NFL QB and NFL QB coach.
QB’s are difficult to evaluate. Most NFL scouts are not good QB evaluators. How many early round QB’s are busts? NFL QB coaches like June Jones, and Jim Zorn, are far more qualified in evaluating QB’s.
The character issue is legitimate. However, while at Hawaii, Brennan was a model citizen. He was great with the kids of Hawaii, and helped out the needy, and was very involved with the community.
Redskin fans, you got a good one in Brennan, and he will surprise a few people. You will see how he always hits his receivers in stride. Brennan also has a knack for making big plays in critical situation like on 3rd down, and has an uncanny ability to make plays after the play breaks down. Dropped passes, penalties, and interceptions don’t faze him. For Brennan, its always one snap and clear, and he is never down.
The Redskins just gained a lot of fans in Hawaii. Go Redskins!
May 20th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
> You kinda ignored the fact he weighed in at a Buck 85.
> That’s HS Qb weight, not pro.
He’s put on some weight since the college season. The Redskins have him listed at 204.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
It’s strange how so many “experts” fail to see how great Brennan will be IF on the right team running the right system. I don’t know all that much about the Redskins, but if they have a decent offensive line, Brennan, when he gets his shot, will make it look easy with his uncanny ability to hit his weapons in stride. Simply put, Colt Brennan is Brett Favre (mentality) and Dan Marino (lighting fast release) rolled into one except Brennan will throw with better accuracy.
May 21st, 2008 at 12:02 am
Now, that June Jones reference is an interesting point. Can’t call it a positive for Brennan.
The best pro quarterback Jones produced was Jeff George. Neither George, nor the Red Gun offense, was successful anywhere else in the NFL. Wonder if that’s tainting Brennan?
May 21st, 2008 at 12:20 am
teams knew colt was going to throw on every down, and dropped 5-7 men in coverage almost every down, yet they STILL COULDN’T STOP HIM. tell me that’s not impressive….
when you complete 71% of your passes against teams who are defending the pass, that’s phenomenal.
combine that with a horrible offensive line and no running game, and that’s even more impressive.
time will tell, and people will start to see the light–colt brennan is the real deal.
May 21st, 2008 at 12:27 am
oh yeah, i forgot to mention, colt is 6-2.5, 218 pounds. HE IS NO LONGER 185 POUNDS. he lost 20 pounds at the end of the season due to sickness, and gained it all back plus another 13.
remember, tony romo is only 6-2 or less. so is donovan mcnabb, steve mcnair, drew brees, etc.
chad henne and john david booty are also about the same height and weight as colt. so what’s the big fuss about size?
May 21st, 2008 at 12:49 am
colt might be failed in pro.. but Chad henne?? on dolphins??? they just made a huge mistake.
May 21st, 2008 at 1:17 am
Colt could read defenses prior to getting under Center. I believe this is a requirement in the WCO, as the QB will know ahead of time where the open WR will be, and Colt will put the ball there. What you will see is a happy bunch of receivers.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:41 am
If I remember correctly Jeff George did have success after he left the Falcons. Oakland Raiders led the leage in offense in ‘97 with George passing for just shy of 4000 yards, 29 TDs and only 9 Ints.
June Jones also coached Jim Kelly and Warren Moon, 2 hall of famers yet calls Colt Brennan the best QB he’s ever coached. I’ll just June Jone’s judgment over Mel Kiper’s.
May 21st, 2008 at 5:26 am
I think that Zorn and Cerrato know what they have in Brennan. He is a much better pick up than Jordan Palmer, and Gibran Hamden. It would do Brennan good to be a back up for a couple of years. If in two years Campbell doesn’t turn out to be the stud that we think he is then Brennan, after two years of studying under Zorn, will get his chance to unseat Campbell. I hope that Campbell is succesful and we never need Brennan to play a game. But, it’s good to know that if Campbell never improves that we are working on a real alternative.
May 21st, 2008 at 6:23 am
How could Brennan be considered a bust as a sixth-round pick? If he works out, great, if not, move on.
May 21st, 2008 at 7:10 am
The jury is going to be out for some time.Were talking for lack of anything or somebody better to size up.I don’t mean to butt heads,but the Jim Kelly I know played for Miami,or FSU also we saw plenty of action with Marshall and Chad with college plan,DTV,and everyone in the country new of the Giant QB from Florida Central where nobody could even tackle him in the pocket with players hanging on him like Roman Gabriel.He won’t be here long enough to worry about.Peace
May 21st, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Still can’t believe the Bears didn’t grab him for one of their more pressing needs. He could have been acquired on a Papa Bear budget.
May 21st, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Still can’t believe the Bears didn’t grab him, plus he could have been acquired on a Papa Bear budget.
May 21st, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Have to agree there, Easy. I don’t think Da Bears solved their QB question. Brennan should have been worth a look to Chicago.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:34 pm
[…] Original post by "colt brennan" - Live Search News […]
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:55 am
Mahalo to all of you who know Colt’s work for taking time to explain it to those who don’t.
One of the most talked-over stories of the recent draft was Washington’s picking three receivers. At the end of training camp, and again at the end of the preseason, let’s find out from this trio, as well as the veteran receiving crew, who they would rather catch passes from. Jason Campbell? Or Colt Brennan.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
The comments all sound really familiar… to those made about Danny Weurffel and Gino Torretta. College success doesn’t necessarily translate into pro success… let’s just say we’ll see what happens.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:23 pm
All I can say is this. Jason Campbell looks great on paper but over the course of two years and 15 plus games he doesn’t look like the answer to me. As a matter of fact, don’t be surprised to see Todd Collins win the starting position by the 4th week of the season. Regarding Colt Brennan… Action speaks louder than words and based on the limited interviews I’ve heard from him since he was drafted by the Redskins. I’d say that Colt plans to let his performance in practice and his play on the filed do the talking for him. Don’t forget we redskin fans love controversy… All the way back to Billy Kilmer vs. Sonny Jurgensen.
May 23rd, 2008 at 3:00 am
very nice article. i was waiting for someone to point brennan was one of the most scrutinized player in this year’s draft and how/why we shouldn’t “write him off”.
i don’t know how any team could lose on a guy like this from the 6th round. brennan was icing on the cake after picking up some good receivers. that’s something to build on. i believe zorn knows what he’s doing. remember, zorn said he liked brennan’s intangibles. something only hawaii fans saw that hardly others could understand.
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
I am not a Colt fan, but the Redskins certainly have nothing to lose by using a 6th round pick on him. I have seen a handful of games and Brennan’s quirky arm action looks to me like it could cause him problems in the NFL.
Just a random nitpick, but Jim Kelly when to the University of Miami, since when is that a small school?
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:31 pm
I’m getting Kelly confused with someone else from the same era. Miami, though much less prominent at that time, definately not a small school.
May 24th, 2008 at 12:43 am
Skins fans may not want to hear this, but when Colt was drafted so was this long time Cowboy fan. Colt help turn an ailing football team, an ailing athletic department, and won the hearts of an entire state. His on field and off field demeanor made him an adopted son of many Hawaiian families. Bottom line folks, he is the only QB at the combine to get a 100% rating. His reads are instantaneous and he only needs 1.5 seconds to get the ball off. He is a fierce competitor, watch when Hawaii played ASU and he promised the crowd 5 td’s. Watch the last regular season game against Washington after being down 21 points in the first quarter, he rallied his team to win. Intangibles…
May 24th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Or maybe he just suck.
May 25th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
One thing you forgot is the fact that Colt Brennan will turn 25 before the season starts. Teams obviously aren’t that willing to use a high-round draft pick on an over-aged prospect, especially after Miami’s disaster in John Beck last year.
May 26th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
That’s a REALLY good point by Ryan, and not even something I was aware of. Quarterbacks do start declining with age, and ascending with experience, so Colt may never get as good as his statistics suggest.
Still, 25 doesn’t exactly make him the next Chris Weinke.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:30 am
Seeing is believing . . . why do people have to analyze and come up with all this draft-conscious stuff . . . look at the tape, Look At The Tape, LOOK AT THE FRIGGIN TAPE! Then if you cannot find a place on your roster for Colt Brennan, you are a nut case. Kudos to Jim Zorn & Company. Also, just in case you missed it, while Colt Brennan and his UH offense was beating Boise State to win the WAC outright, they took time out to pay tribute to Redskins #21. Now that’s class. How many other college players took time to paid tribute to the fallen Redskin?
May 27th, 2008 at 6:37 am
I didn’t see anybody else mention it, so I just thought I would ask…when exactly did Colt Brennan have a reputation as a choker?
I remember one instance when he choked. Oregon State, final drive in 2006. The Georgia game is not a choke, Tom Brady couldn’t have led that Hawaii team to victory.
Every other “big game”, Brennan has pretty much crapped on the opponent. Washington to get into the BCS, Boise for the first WAC title in school history, ASU in the Hawaii Bowl, etc. He’s come up “clutch” constantly. To say he’s “unclutch” simply because he got sacked 50 times during the Sugar Bowl is insanely shortsighted.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Colt has time… great situation for him. I have a feeling he will benefit another team in the future.
The Georgia win over Hawaii was a product of the line play. Hawaii had a couple of young Tackles that were over matched.
We all saw what happen to the great Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, in fact any QB is helpless is behind an O-line with holes.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
I love how the haters are so critical of Colts weight. Little did they know he gained like 20 pounds in between the senior bowl and pro day. Yeah he only weighed 185-200 lbs in college but thats all he needed. Now that he is in the pros, Iam sure he will do what it takes to be a good weight. Santana Moss and the Skins will love him. Watch!
May 28th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
There a reason he the 3th backup now. He sucks so bad!!!!!!!!
May 28th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Jim Brady came out of a Pro Set Offense out Michigan Worlverines…
Now, he’s running a four wide offense that broke records, ie. touchdowns, yardage, completion rate, number of passes per game, etc. etc. etc.
And almost made a perfection out of the four wide offense. Any guess which college runs this type of offense the last year?
No, it’s not Hawaii Warriors because they’ve been running it since June Jones used it in the Pro’s and now College…
It’s the likes of Oregon, Appalachian State, Florida Gators, to name a few….And if you take a look at the teams that made it to the big games, it’s mostly colleges that ran the four wide…
And who’s the QB that’s been most successful in running this offense? None other than COLT Brennan.
Guess what Jim Zorn will be running and implementing for Redskin fans…A wide open west coast and four wide….Just like your next door team called New England Patriots.
Good luck Redskins, it’ll be an exciting season with lots of fire works. And when Colt get’s that chance, it’ll be 30 to 50 yard bombs caught in stride by your wide receivers…..Aloha ka’kou!!!!
May 29th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
I’ve seen Zorn and Brennan both play, and Brennan is more accurate. Heh. But both are extremely competitve. The Redskins have a lot more fans out in the Pacific now, and I don’t think fans in DC will be disappointed. And with a sixth round pick there’s no downside. With all the hype, Brennan was still a team player. Go ‘Skins.
May 30th, 2008 at 6:12 am
Interesting post and comments, living in hawaii, writing on hawaii sports and interviewing and interacting with Brennan and watching him play numerous times id say i know my fair deal on what he does well and doesn’t but most of it has been covered here.
Responding to Chad:
I have no idea whatsoever why he would get the reputation as a “choker” or someone who disappears in big games. In fact this is the first time ive heard that and its crazy.
His Junior year overall was just insane statistically but Hawaii lost tough games to Boise, Alabama and Oregon State. All of them were within reach but for one reason or another Hawaii fell short, more of a team thing than a Brennan thing. The Oregon State drive basically only one pass ruined it, a comeback route to Rivers in which Rivers probably could have caught the ball.
Fast Forward to Senior year, he struggled often, got injured a few times and seemed to not be himself often. In the “smaller” games such as the one against Idaho Brennan had an uncharacteristic 5 INTs, yet in the huge games his numbers were insane just like his junior year. Look up stats for Hawaii’s big regular season games, especially against Boise and there is no way you can say he chokes, you have to understand Boise was like our super bowl down here. And Flacco having better competition in the A-10 vs the WAC? i’d have to seriously say thats crazy as well.
Overall i really think you guys got great value and all i can hope for is that Colt gets the chance.
May 30th, 2008 at 8:15 am
this guys are idiots, colt brennan rocked hawaii and will kill in the nfl
May 31st, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Colt is 3rd on the depth for a reason because the coach thinks colt Could be the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady so he want’s to build him up. You talk about the sugar bowl they forget to mention how good and expirence the D-line was for Georgia and they went up against a young group of Hawaii O-lineman and teared them apart just look at the super bowl any good Quarterback with a crappy line will just bomb really bad. If Colt has a good line in the nfl Then I say He has a shot.
June 2nd, 2008 at 6:18 pm
30 year Redskins season ticket holder here. Redskin fans have been lulled into accepting mediocrity. We have one of the most underperforming offenses and that has been the case for, uh, how many years now? Everybody got so excited when Collins came in, after being the number 3 QB, and moved the offense and scored TD’s. Campbell really hasn’t done much yet. He has a slow delivery and he telegraphs his passes.
Just think of all the QB’s we’ve had here since the 1960’s. Name the best ones. Wow, that was quick. How about better than average? We’re still counting fingers on one hand.
Every year, I hope the offense will be better. I always hope we will be better. I am a diehard, but I want better QB play… a lot better.
Here are some things to consider about Brennan. He throws quickly and on target. His passes are perfect spirals and are catchable. He has a new quality group of receivers who look like they have real talent. He makes decisions and acts. He studies the game. He is dedicated and teachable. He learns from his mistakes. He wins games with the games on the line. He’ll take one for the team. He’s a team guy. He good in the locker room. He is good in the community. He will support Campbell and Collins. He will make them better and they will make him better. He has Jim Zorn who picked him to teach him.
If Zorn pans out, we could be in for a great time.
I’ll bet you money Zorn gives him a chance at some point soon. If Brennan takes advantage of the opportunity, he won’t look back and neither will you.
Give Colt a chance.
June 8th, 2008 at 1:22 am
If Zorn is competent and plays his cards right, Brennan will turn out to be the best QB in a Redskins uniform since Sonny Jurgensen.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
To tell you the truth I have a friend who is an avid Redskins fan so I was always on the other side of the line drawn in the dirt. I am from Chicago and by saying that in regards to our sports teams, I should have your sympathy. After the ‘Skins drafted Colt Brennan they became my second favorite team. I have watched Brennan play while being stationed out here in Hawaii and I will have to say that he will surprise many people when given the chance to play. The guy has heart and uncanny accuracy. People get on him about the Sugar Bowl but tend to forget the pressure that was placed on him from the time of the very first snap almost. The disparity won’t be as uneven in the pros as it was with the WAC and the SEC. Given protection, Brennan will pick defenses apart. With the receiving corps at Washington, along with this year’s draft picks, he will be a welcome addition. I just wish that I could watch training camp.
Colt Brennan is the truth. You have only to look at last year’s Washington/Hawaii game and the Hawaii Bowl the year before against ASU. He is a leader and more that that…a winner. Don’t compare him to Andre Ware, Gino Torretta, or Danny Wuerfell. Give him a chance. What does Washington have to lose anyway?
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