MVN - Most Valuable Network

The Plexiglass Principle: Could the Redskins be Screwed Already?

What is the Plexiglass Principle?

Put simply, it’s a very fancy term saying that a team that suffers a significant decline in production in one season is almost certain to bounce back the next season as if the poor season never happened.

In 2005, Football Outsiders pegged the Redskins defense as the third best pass defense, and the fourth best overall defense, as rated by DVOA, explained here.  In 2006, the Redskins pass defense measured out as the very worst pass defense in the last decade, and their defense finished last overall that year.

Prior to the 2007 season, the experts at Football Outsiders pegged the Redskins as the 4th best defense, just one year after they were the worst in the NFL.  Here’s what Aaron Schatz wrote at the time:

“Teams that significantly improve or decline in one season have a tendency to relapse or bounce back the next.  The Redskins didn’t go from average to awful; they went from great to awful.  The 2005 Redskins ranked third in the league in defensive DVOA on third down.  The year before, they were number one in the NFL.”

Anyway, the Redskins finished up 6th in defensive DVOA (7th vs. the pass) in 2007, effectively fulfilling the projection.   The defense led the playoff charge in December, after struggling mightily in November:  for three months out of the year, they were the best defense in the NFL.

That defense had everything going for it.  Gregg Williams was at his best most of the season.  They stayed relatively healthy throughout the year.  Andre Carter and Fred Smoot had career years at their respective positions.  Youngsters like Anthony Montgomery, Rocky McIntosh, and Reed Doughty all performed admirably in big roles.  The London Fletcher signing was every bit as valuable as anyone could have hoped.

And don’t forget that for half the season, Sean Taylor was the very best defensive player in all of football.  No single reason was more key for the Redskins’ defensive rebound than this:  in 2006, Taylor was awful.  He was out of position all the time, confused on his assignments, poor in coverage and took bad angles all the time.  He looked totally lost.  In 2007, he was Ronnie Lott — perhaps even better — for half a season.

Now, the Redskins have absolutely nothing going for them.  Taylor has been lost forever.  Their defensive coordinator, one of the best defensive minds in the game, is gone.  The secondary has been totally decimated by injuries and tragedy, moving from strength to weakness overnight.  The big acquisition on the perennially mediocre defensive line was a guy who couldn’t stay healthy for his first team.   In addition, that line only looked mediocre because it’s best pass rusher had a career year.  It’s aging at three positions, and largely unproven at the fourth.

And the most critical and damning thing of all, besides age and injury proneness, is that the very factor that said the Redskins would rebound in 2007, says that they are bound to regress in 2008.  When Football Outsiders does it’s defensive projections for this season, it may read something like this (note: these words are strictly those of this article’s author):

“Teams that significantly improve or decline in one season have a tendency to relapse or bounce back the next.  The Redskins didn’t go from awful to average; they went from awful to great.  The 2006 Redskins ranked dead last in the league in defensive DVOA on third down.  The year before, they were number three in the NFL.”

History says we would be foolish to give the Redskins’ defense a fighting chance to be mediocre this year.  Consider me a fool then, because I’m ready to play the wait and see game.  The projections may not look good; every other defense in the NFC East looks a lot better on paper than the 2008 version of the ‘Over the Hill Gang’.  But these guys have been there before, they have strong leadership, and there’s reason to think the Redskins may not have to rely on their defense this year as much as they had to in the Gibbs era.

For one thing, Jason Campbell could break out (a la Eli Manning, circa December 2007) at anytime now that he has a full season of starts under his belt.  The offensive line is healthy, for now, at at age 27, Clinton Portis is at the most traditionally productive age for an NFL RB.

Any less time the Redskins can put their defense on the field will keep it fresher in the 4th quarter.  Additionally, the Redskins have produced below their expected turnover rate in both forced fumbles and interceptions each of the last two years, and that’s bound to improve.  Will the turnover’s improve enough to offset the rest of the regression?  It’s doubtful, but certainly possible.

There’s going to be a plethora of cold, hard reasons to doubt the potential of this defensive unit, made up of many of the same guys who played on a historically terrible defense in 2006.  However, I want to see it with my own eyes before I write these guys off.

If I’m going to look like a fool, I’d rather do it while having my defenses’ back than letting them prove me wrong.

This entry was posted on Saturday, May 31st, 2008 at 1:03 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.