Devin Thomas, too.

Though the 2008 version of the Redskins may look a little bit different on opening day than it does right now, the core of the team, it’s draft class, is signed sealed and delivered.

The Redskins got all of their 2nd rounders, along with 3rd rounder Chad Rinehart, signed for four years.  The logic in this deal is obvious:  to prevent the player from qualifying for restricted free agency after 2010.

Certainly, the uncertainty with the CBA had a hand in the Skins pushing for longer deals — though typically 2nd rounders do sign for 4 years, it’s not unheard of for a2nd rounder to do a three year deal.  By the time these contracts expire, a new CBA will be in place, or the contracts won’t be valid anyway, so it’s impossible to say right now how the free agent market will look when these four guys become eligible for it.

In return for the longer deal, the players will typically receive 33% more bonus money than if a shorter deal was done, simply because there is more time to prorate it.  Thomas got 2.75 million in bonus money, Davis got 1.8 million, and Rinehart got 600K.  The variance in the amount of bonus money is due entirely to draft slot and position on the field.

————————————–

A few predictions for the first three years of the deals for the rookies:

I feel strongly that Malcolm Kelly will be a more impressive pro receiver than Devin Thomas.  Draft position aside — the Redskins simply thought (correctly) that Kelly would last on the board longer than Thomas — Kelly’s body of work in college makes him an easier prospect to project than Thomas.  His skill set is a proven one at the pro level:  bigger possession receivers with great hands will find their niche in the NFL, although with varying degrees of success.  Kelly is by no means a surefire superstar, but it’s hard not to like the guy.

This is not to say of course that Thomas won’t be successful on the Redskins.  The reason that we rated him outside of the top ten receivers at MVN’s NFL Draft University is this:  had Thomas returned for his Senior year to be Michigan State’s number one receiver, the most likely outcome would have been a year that (if he stayed healthy), he might have produced yardage totals in the 600-700 range, or about half as much as last year.  With these type of totals, and in a stronger receiver class, Devin Thomas probably would have been a more polished day two selection in 2009.

The (debatable) error the Skins committed on Thomas was that they bought “high” (Devin was the second receiver taken in the draft).  People who work on the stock exchange can tell you that if you have inside information on a certain stock, that tells you it’s about to soar in value, you will still make a ton of return on investment even if you buy high:  just don’t make it a trend.  I think this is a good analogy for the Thomas selection:  there were a ton of safer stocks on the board, both at the receiver position and other position of critical need.  But the team clearly had scouts who thought Thomas was a can’t miss prospect, so they bought high.  Thomas will have to be one of the two best receivers in the class (or comparable to that) to justify the Skins optimism, and here’s hoping that they can convert their faith in him into a huge return on investment.

Fred Davis is at some point in the next few years, going to get some work as the number one Tight End.  Chris Cooley is a great player who has stayed remarkably healthy and improved his blocking each and every year, but as is the risk in football, one’s luck on injuries can turn at any play of the season.  Because Cooley is such a great player, it makes sense that any offense that Jim Zorn builds would feature the Tight End heavily.  Because of this, the Davis selection has the potential to look very, very good one day.  Even with Cooley in the lineup, the Redskins offense was in desperate need of two TE versatility.

As far as Davis as a prospect, I was lukewarm on him at draft time, but the team feels that his blocking ability was incredibly underrated.  If the draft analysts were wrong on Davis as a blocker, and the team was right, this has the potential to be a huge, huge steal.  If I was running the team, I would have taken Texas A&M’s Martellius Bennett with that selection (Bennett went to the Cowboys later on), but there’s no reason not to trust the Redskins’ college scouting department on this one:  they make far, far more than I do.

Chad Rinehart was taken in part because of his durability and versatility on the line.  I don’t think he’ll ever be anything more than a Guard in this league, but Guard was one of the team’s biggest needs, and they addressed it when the value was proper.  I see no reason why the team wouldn’t allow Pete Kendall to move on at the end of 2008 and just hand the starting LG job to Rinehart, who I predict will take it and never look back.  He’s got the potential to be better than Derrick Dockery was on the O Line.

Elsewhere, I’m pretty high on Colt Brennan as a third string QB.  He probably won’t touch the field his rookie year (which is for the best), but I think he can play about league average football early in his career when he is asked to play it.  If he can run up some good numbers in limited time in 2010, the Redskins may be able to parlay their 6th round investment in Brennan into a day one draft pick come 2011, and then it will really be a great pick.

He’s blocked in Washington by Jason Campbell, but Peyton Manning will be 35 in 2011, so maybe the Colts will be looking for a young, but promising QB prospect to learn under Manning and future Colts coach Jim Caldwell.  I’m just throwing that out there right now, but keep an eye on it.   Closer to home (for Brennan), time may be running down on the Alex Smith experiment in San Francisco, and Mike Martz was rumored to like Brennan around draft time, perhaps that’s a possible destination for Colt in the future.

———-

I need to clarify a few things from my last post on the Redskin defensive backs.  I should point out that I was less than clear regarding what Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt measures.  I led Hog Heaven readers to believe it was simply “targeted yards against”, divided by the number of targets, but thats only part of it:  the numbers are then adjusted for the strength of the offense.  The Redskins faced above average passing competition in 2007, so the numbers are much stronger and the rankings higher than just simple yards against per pass attempt.

My apologies on the confusion and I’ll take more time to throughly explain the metrics used when I evaluate the defensive line next week (spoiler:  Anthony Montgomery=stud).

After all, merely a year before last, the Redskins DB’s set all sorts of records for blown coverages, missed tackles, and yards/points against. But when we start to dig deeper into the pieces and production of the 2007 Redskin DBs, we find that what occured last season was perhaps the greatest rebound by a single unit in NFL History.

Sean Taylor

In 2006, Sean Taylor was pretty good against the run, for a safety, but horrible against the pass.

In 2007, Sean’s numbers against the run regressed, likely due entirely to the philosophical switch that kept him in deep coverage most of the time.

That switch must have done some good, because in 2007, Sean Taylor was — for half a season at least — unquestionably the best safety in all of football.

Opposing quarterbacks who targeted Taylor (foolishly, but perhaps based on 2006 scouting reports), something that happened 18 times in 2007, were rarely successful. Taylor ranked 2nd in the NFL in Stop Rate among safeties, creating a ’successful play’ 68% of the times he was targeted. Taylor picked 5 of those 18 passes off, and allowed 2.7 yards…per play when he was targeted (remember, dude was a safety), firmly making him the best statistical safety in the NFL last year.

Taylor’s rebound was the most significant reason for the team rebound, but certainly not the only one, as evidenced by the team playing shutdown pass D down the stretch without him.

Shawn Springs

In 2004, Shawn Springs signed a 6 year contract with the Redskins. No one expected him to play it out, but here we are in the 5th year of the deal, and not only is he still around, but he’s the best CB on the team. In fact, that doesn’t nearly begin to do him justice.

Springs was a pro bowler in 2004. In 2005, he was the NFL’s best CB, per Stop Rate. After an injury riddled 2006, Springs returned to the lineup last year, and again led the NFL in Stop Rate for CBs, pitching in a Taylor-esque 62. He also held opposing receivers to 6.0 yards per pass attempt, which ranks him in the top ten in the NFL in that metric.

All of that is even more impressive when you consider that Springs was targeted 94 times by opposing QBs, most on the entire team.

Thing was, if the first seven games of the season were any indication, Springs wouldn’t have been the best CB in the NFC last year if not for one injured knee to a teammate.

Carlos Rogers

When I referred to Rogers as the “X factor of the 2007 Redskins”, I had no idea that he would perform so well, and yet, have his season shortened by half.

Rogers, in seven games, was targeted 37 times by opposing QBs (not enough to qualify for the leader’s rankings), and posted a 66% stop rate, and gave up a stingy 5.7 Y/A against. That stop rate was the best in the entire NFL, and had he qualified for it, that 5.7 Y/A against would have ranking him as a top 5 corner in the NFL, just behind Nnamdi Asomugha and Champ Bailey.

The fact that his season was cut short means you have to take those statistics with a grain of salt regarding Rogers: perhaps given more time in the lineup, those would have evened out. Additionally, we may never see Rogers perform at this level again, being that he’s coming off major knee surgery.

But at the very least, Gregg Williams is off the hook for that draft pick. Rogers has clearly shaken the bust label, and although he may never play at this level again, he should become a fixture in the starting lineup for years to come.

Fred Smoot

When Rogers went down for the year, the oft hurt but never silenced Smoot jumped right into the lineup, and just happened to produce the best season of his career. For so long, Smoot’s biggest knock was that he was soft against the run. So, I guess it’s ironic that when his team needed Fred Smoot the most, his biggest impact on the game was his run defense: Smoot was the best corner in the league against the run last year, giving up a paltry 2.1 yards per carry when opponents attacked him on the outside. 90% of the time, those runs were charted as “unsuccessful”, by far the top percentage in the league for a corner.

Smoot was money against the pass as well. Teams that through against Smoot averaged 5.6 Y/A, third best in the NFL among cornerbacks.

Reed Doughty

Reed Doughty was the biggest surprise of the season last year. He’s got a reputation as a run stuffing safety, and the numbers certainly suggest that’s his craft: No. 2 among all safeties in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.8). The team probably feels he can be a run stuffing dynamo (thanks, Mel Kiper) for the next ten years for them.

Where Doughty was more surprising was against the pass, where he actually had the numbers of a top no. 2 safety. Doughty ranked 26th in stop rate last year and 29th among safeties last year with 6.6 yards per attempt against the pass.

LaRon Landry

Landry gave up 4.4 yards per pass in which he was targeted last year, which places him at 6th in the NFL by that measure among safeties. Here’s the fun part: the guy was a rookie who played his best football after he didn’t have Sean Taylor to show him the ropes any more.

Landry wasn’t all that great against the run last year, which was a bigger problem when he was at Strong Safety than it was after he moved to free. However, there’s no reason to think that Landry won’t be a pro bowler in the very, very near future.

Review

The Redskins, despite all the luck that went against them last season, clearly struck gold as they tried to fix the defensive backfield from it’s 2006 performance. In the process, they found tons of optimism for the future. Though a lot of that optimism was squelched along with the death of Sean Taylor, there are still building blocks in this backfield. Rogers, Smoot, Doughty, and Landry will create a great core for the team to build around, in both the near and distant future.

Sean Taylor may have gotten the pro bowl nod from this group, but in essence, his selection was indicative of the job this entire unit did last season, turning the mess that was 2006 into a playoff run in 2007.

Source:  Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Devin Thomas and Fred Davis are next on the list.

Brennan brings a gaudy record and a legion of fans from half  a world away to Redskins park.

Noted for his accuracy, Brennan completed 70.1 percent of his passes in college and JUCO, for 16,725 yards and 154 touchdowns against 46 interceptions. His Hawaii career QB rating is 115.

Scouting Report: Superb

Scouting reports on Brennan are full of superlatives. Some samplings from NFLDraftScout.com read “very mobile in the pocket;” “has the nimble feet to throw on the move and the arm strength to stretch defenses;” “good pre-snap decisions;” “quick decision-maker;” “throws on the move as well as he throws from the pocket;” “fires the ball out quickly….”

It goes on and on and on. DraftScouts compares Brennan to Alex Smith as a pro prospect.  

The knock on Brennan is his durability. An illness right before the Senior Bowl and multiple injuries to his right ankle raised red flags for scouts. I’ll never understand how he slipped past Da Bears to fall into Jim Zorn’s lap.

I suspect Zorn has bigger plans for this kid that we’ll see if they both survive the ‘08 and ‘09 season.   

For Campbell, change is the only certainty

By now, Jason Campbell should be good with changes, what with all the different offensive coordinators and schemes he’s seen since his Auburn days. That flexibility will stand him in good stead over the next two seasons. I think Jason Campbell is a marked man.

Campbell has the size, arm and middle distance accuracy to be a downfield pocket passer. He fit Joe Gibbs’ offensive concepts [no pun there]. He is likely, most probably, almost certainly the best fit for Danny VinZorn’s new passing concepts. The best fit, that is, among the current quarterbacks at this time.

To read the scouting reports and look at the film, Colt Brennan may be a better fit for the pro-style West Coast Offense after a year or two of seasoning.

Campbell has this season to prove that he is that guy to the new coach. He has WCO bona fides. He completed 69.6 percent of his passes at Auburn’s WCO in 2004, good for 20 TDs against 7 INTs and a 172.9 QB rating.

Zorn wants Campbell to “play smaller” and is changing his motion and stance so that he plays about an inch shorter than his 6-5 frame. Brennan, by the way is 6-3.

The West Coast Offense requires Campbell to release faster and to be accurate in passes under 10 yards. Campbell earned a 76 QB rating on passes under 10 yards in 2007. His rating for passes of 11-20 yards and of 21 to 30 yards was 85.3 and 88.7 respectively.

Brennan excels at the short game according to scouting reports.

See the pattern? Hear the footsteps?

Questions, questions

No one at Redskins Park will say that Jason Campbell is in jeopardy. Yet, Jim Zorn hasn’t given him a ringing endorsement either. Vinny and the Danny said that continuity is critical to Jason Campbell’s development. Then they blew up the offense he was drafted to run.

Colt Brennan isn’t assured of making the roster at No. 3 quarterback. But the Redskins cut Sam Hollenbach, the only player who might have challenged for that role, before Brennan played a down as a pro (disregarding Marshall’s Derick Devine for the moment).

While the Redskin quarterback situation is set for the moment, Jason Campbell must answer all questions this year, because next season is a question mark.

Next: How Brett Favre changes the game

Dave Kallmann, who writes an auto racing column for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, did a brief piece on Joe Gibbs’ thoughts about Favre’s retirement and reinstatement.

Gibbs says that Favre drove him out of football because Favre always beat him. Then he notes that Favre retired right after Gibbs quit the Redskins.

OK, this is St. Joe being funny, so don’t get your underpants in a bunch. I can just hear that high pitched giggle that escaped Gibbs whenever he told a joke.

I know Gibbs would not go after Favre if he [Gibbs] were still Redskins coach because . . . Mark Brunell would still be on the roster.

That’s a joke, too. 

Kelly is one of three second rounders selected in the draft, all of whom the Redskins brass expect to contribute to Jim Zorn’s West Coast Offense over the next few seasons.

Ocho Nocho

More important, drafting Kelly, along with wide receiver Devin Thomas and tight end Fred Davis is just the approach the Redskins should take to develop the team. The Redskins made a pitch to Cincinnati for wide receiver Chad Johnson, offering two first round draft choices.

Cincinnati refused the deal that was widely panned by the Redskins faithful even as it was being proposed. Either Kelly or Thomas, or both, have the prospect of being productive contributors far longer than 30 year old Johnson would have been here and without crimping the salary cap.

The Redskins traded their first round pick to Atlanta anyway and still found both Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly on the board. So it’s conceivable they could have ended the draft wth either Kelly or Thomas and Ocho Cinco, too.

That has an appeal, but I just don’t like the idea of signing other peoples’ 30-something stars. Ocho Cinco and Sheriff Gonna Getcha in the same locker room. I don’t know if that would make me laugh or cry!  

Between Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas, I pencil Kelly in as the immediate contributor. He has more time as a starter at OK-U. Thomas was a one year wonder at Michigan State, my alma mater by the way.

As a Spartan, I have high hopes for Thomas and am pulling for him as I did for Lemar Marshall and Tony Banks. [Or rather, I refused to boo Tony Banks.] Thomas comes to the Redskins with less college experience than Kelly and is a bit more of a project. 

Derrick Frost kicked to the curb?

In drafting and signing Durant Brooks, the Redskins essentially gave notice to Derrick Frost. If Brooks has any kind of leg, I think Frost gets the boot.

Joe Gibbs seems to have had confidence in Frost who was occasionally quite good. He was also quite bad on occasion. Joe Gibbs isn’t here to back Frost, so….

It seems to me that all vestiges of the Gibbs II era are being dismantled. Gregg Williams is gone. The hybridized Gibbs-Saunders offense is gone, as is Al Saunders. Mark Brunell, who couldn’t run that offense, is gone. The Redskins are abandoning their long time power running - down field passing offense for the West Coast Offense of the Bill Walsh-Mike Holmgren school. 

It’s just a matter of time before Daniel Snyder sells the naming rights to the Joe Gibbs Plaza at FedEx Field. 

Why the Redskins would bring in a punter to compete with Derrick Frost, but not a place kicker to scare the bejezus out of Shawn Suisham still eludes me.

The judge said the plaintiffs waited too long to bring the suit, according to the story filed by Associated Press reporter Joseph White.

U.S. District Court Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly made a similar finding in 2003, but the Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in 2005 that one of the plaintiffs at that time was only one years old when Washington registered “Redskins” as a trademark in 1993. The Appeals Court said the District Court should review its finding in that light.

The District Court found no reason to change it’s findings, noting that the plaintiff in question waited eight years after his 18th birthday to file the suit. However, the court did not rule on the “appropriateness of the imagery,” but on the timeliness of the suit itself.

The battle is hardly over since the group backing the suit expects to appeal.

Hail to the Redskins

“Redskins” has become a politically incorrect term to some over time. Some Native Americans say it is derogatory and have been pushing Washington to change the name. Owner Daniel Snyder and a legion of Redskins fans decline to do so.

Opponents of the name sought removal of trademark protection for “Redskins” as a financial lever. Removal of trademark protection means Snyder would no longer control marketing rights to the logo and team name. Then, anyone could use those assets to sell anything from pizza to porn.

Snyder is unlikely to consider a name change unless there is a groundswell of demand by Washington’s fans. That won’t happen.

Generations of fans are invested in the name and grew up singing Hail to the Redskins. “Hail to the Washington Bureaucrats” just won’t cut it. All the “PC” good predator names are already taken.

There is an unfortunate history in America’s dealings with the first Americans. But, “Redskins,” the way it’s used around here does not perpetuate that. I am a Redskin, a Washington Redskin to be exact. I mean that as no insult to me!

As for the logo, Washington’s indian head logo is no more offensive than the profile on the the U.S. Five Dollar gold bullion coin that’s worth considerably more than $5.00. 

Those who fret that Redskins conveys some type of negative threatening image should worry less. Chief Zee, the team’s unaffiliated mascot just lost the Most Fierce Mascot Competition to a rat bird out of Baltimore.

Now, that’s derogatory.

There are lots of concern about the Redskins aging O-line. The starters are still effective, but wear and tear on the veterans is a growing concern.

Rinehart was a highly regarded tackle at Northern Iowa who lost a bit of his luster at the Senior Bowl and at the NFL Combine, according to NFLDraftScout.com. Scouting reports say he is durable with good arm length and good straight-line quickness and explosiveness. NFLDraftScout thinks he’s a better fit at guard at the pro level.

Hollanbach cut

In a blow to local Maryland fans, the Redskins released former Terrapin quarterback Sam Hollenbach.

Hollenbach always faced long odds to make it with an NFL team, but hung in there through the Skins brief infatuation with Jordan Palmer last season. The Redskins selection of Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan sealed Hollenbach’s fate.

Brennan is no certainty to make the team either. He comes with better stats than Hollenbach and with a legion of fans. I know this because we hear from each and every one of them whenever we write anything remotely bad about him.  

I don’t see Brennan as the flier Jordan Palmer was. I have a hunch Jim Zorn knows something about the guy named Colt with a gun of an arm. So I see Brennan sticking around as long as Zorn does.

Here’s IGN’s recap of the NFC East race:

“In perhaps the biggest shocker, the Super Bowl champion New York Giants actually finished in last place, only months removed from their miraculous run. Losing Michael Strahan hurt, but what hurt even more was a tough schedule; the Giants finished 8-8, but were in the wrong division for that to matter. Every other team had a winning record; the Cowboys took the division with an NFC-best 13-3 record, the Redskins claimed the other Wild Card by winning 11 games, and the Eagles finished in third at 9-7.”

[And a big hat tip to Vikings War Cry for pointing me to this piece.]

The Madden simulation has the Skins losing the wild card round to the St. Louis Rams, 34-6. I just knew we should have kept that Al Saunders offense!

I usually buy the version of Madden that ranks the Redskins highly. So I might buy the newest edition. 

I bought Madden 05 when Joe Gibbs returned to Washington for the 2004 season. That was the most joyous day in Washington sports that didn’t involve a championship. 

Rod Gardner caught every pass thrown to him in Madden 05, something you never saw on the field. Taylor Jacobs was a decent receiver, too. Also something you never saw on the field.

About that simulation

That’s the thing about football projections, whether video or fantasy. Reality will surprise the really smart people who make really shrewd guesses about players and coaches. Somebody is going to get hurt. Some big star from 2007 will fade in ‘08. Some middling fourth year player is going to explode beyond expectations [please, please may it be Jason Campbell].

So when really, really smart people run statistical simulations, they don’t run just one. They run hundreds and look for the patterns. Confidence in the projection rises with each simulation. The IGN folks ran one simulation. That makes their results a fun read, but don’t bet the rent money.

Talent will tell

This year’s Redskins have the talent to win 10 or 11 games. I don’t see it happening, though. Washington is in the odd position of having a telented team cover the inexperienced coaching staff.

They will struggle early but might duplicate Marty Schottenheimer’s 2001 Redskins who won eight of their last 11 games to finish the season at .500. That was an astounding feat given the handicap of Tony Banks and Jeff George at quarterback.

Alas, That didn’t save Marty’s job. He was fired to make way for Steve Spurrier’s “pass ‘n’ gas” offense.

Al Saunders was fired to make way for Jim Zorn’s offense. Madden and Daniel Snyder thinks that’s going to work out.

My projection for the year will come in early September after the exhibition games. For an early Hog Heaven outlook, see Greg Trippiedi’s 4 Wins, 4 Losses, Lots of Questions. 

I’m not going to sugarcoat this:  not a whole lot has happened in the last 30 days.  Of course, we haven’t taken a long look at the Redskins Salary Cap situation in awhile, so that seems like a good place to start.

Post Draft Transactions:

Redskins acquire DE Erasmus James via trade.  4th round selection CB Justin Tryon signs.  7th round selection S Chris Horton signs.  6th round selection S Kareem Moore signs.  7th round DE Rob Jackson signs.

Unsigned Redskins Draft Picks:

WR Devin Thomas
TE Fred Davis
WR Malcolm Kelly
OL Chad Rinehart
QB Colt Brennan

The best news here is that the total cap effect of the last three months has been pretty much negligible.  Erasmus James’ contract raises the cap about 100K — essentially nothing.  The other rookies don’t even qualify under the rule of 51.

When the other guys sign, there will be some significant effects on the cap — an average of about 350-500k for each of the second rounders and 100-300k for Rinehart.  Highest estimates, we’re talking about less than 2 million dollars more on the cap.  Theres an easy check for this figure.  The Redskins rookie cap was just over 4 millon dollars.  Per the rule of 51, each signing takes the place of another one of the Redskins top 51 contracts — so the team gets a cap credit of about $370,000 each time they make a signing that exceeds that cap number for the first year:  about 4 times.  4 x 370k = 1.5 million in rule of 51 cap credits.  That’s roughly one third of the rookie cap!

Anyway, that gives the team plenty of cap room to pursue veteran help during the training camp season.  The salary cap won’t be an issue the rest of the offseason.

Looking to next year, the Redskins look to be about 3-4 million over the projected cap going into the draft.  Not only is that not cap trouble (they were 20 million over this year, Danny wrote a lot of checks to vets on the team, and here we are), but the Redskins will be barely forced to restructure any deals: only if they plan to attack a slim free agent class with money will they need to cut some salary.  The 2009 Redskins figure to look a lot like the 2008 version anyway:  no key players have a contract that expires at the end of 2008, and won’t at least have a RFA year.  Out of the 22 starters on the Redskins, only Pete Kendall isn’t under contract for 2009.  So there’s that.

The contract extention front

No official word here.  Jason Campbell is at the forefront of this speculation, but he’s under contract through 2009, so theres no reason to be in a rush here.  Every team in the league saves money to commit to a franchise QB, and the Redskins are no different.  If Jason Campbell proves to be a franchise QB, the Redskins won’t let him get away.

Other players to watch on the contract extension front:  Anthony Montgomery, Carlos Rogers, and Rocky McIntosh.  There’s no reason for the team to act now:  all three players have plenty of room to improve, and are under team control through 2009 (and theoretically much longer, depending on the outcome of the CBA negotiations).

Potential Surprise August Cuts

In no specific order:  Todd Wade and Pete Kendall.

Wade may simply not have a spot on the 53 man if a rookie comes in and really impresses coach Bugel.  He’s a favorite to make the team right now, but doesn’t project to have a big impact right now.

Kendall is only valuable as long as he’s starting at left guard.  Kendall has considerable experience at Center in his career, but hates the position, and it speaks volumes about Kendall’s versatility (or lack thereof) on this team that even with that crucial experience, it’s Jon Jansen who is taking the second-team reps at Center.  It would be a shock if Chad Rinehart can beat out Kendall at Left Guard in camp as a rookie (and a really good sign), but if he does, expect Kendall to be gone and his spot on the roster given to Kerry Brown or someone similar.

Really, really, really longshot to be released:

Shawn Springs, but only if he suffers some sort of injury that would put him out through the first half of the season.  On paper, he’s the number one corner right now.  Then again, Jeremiah Trotter was the No. 1 MLB on the Eagles last July 4th, and look how that one turned out.

Training Camp Battles to Watch

Wide Receiver # 2 will grab a lot of headlines.  Antwaan Randle El is the favorite with Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas breathing down his neck (Kelly has the higher Madden rating for what it’s worth) ,  and Anthony Mix and James Thrash are the darkhorses.

As mentioned above, keep an eye out for left guard.  Rinehart has about 5 to 1 odds at unseating Kendall by opening day.

Phillip Daniels will have to stave off Demetric Evans, and darkhorse Erasmus James to hold his job, and while we are all confident that Anthony Montgomery will have a great career, he’s still going to have to fight off Kedric Golston every year from here on out at DT.

Rocky McIntosh has the starting job right now, but veteran competition could and probably will be brought in within the next month.

The fiercest competition will be at safety where LaRon Landry’s role in the defense could be determined in large part by whether Reed Doughty can stave off Stuart Schweigert.  Doughty is about a 3 to 2 favorite at this point, but if Schweigert has a great camp and needs to be on the field, Landry would move back to strong safety to open up a spot.  Consider this the First Annual Sean Taylor Memorial Camp Battle, ironically titled in honor of the man who made sure there would be no camp battle at his position year in and year out.

(Also, coach Blache’s idea that he can move Landry around based on who wins the other safety position has the potential to be a disaster of a move, but I‘ll devote a full article to this when camp begins).

Final Thoughts

Things are going to get plenty interesting around here at Hog Heaven in the next two weeks.  For one thing, the Redskins figure to actually make some news in the next month or so.  But on a more local note, Hog Heaven is going to be getting a whole new look in the not too distant future, a look that I feel will make the blog far more user friendly, and hopefully a lot more interactive.

I don’t want to give too much information away right now, but that’s what I can tell you.  Everyone make sure to have a fun, yet safe, fourth of July and I’ll be back next week to discuss more Redskin football.

Last year, following the Giants’ playoff upset over the Cowboys (but prior to the NFC Championship game), I wrote that the Giants’ dominance had effectively unseated Dallas as the team to beat in the NFC East. Am I ready to back down from that prediction now? You’ll just have to read on to find out.

Matchup #1: Jason Campbell vs. Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster

If the Giants defense has a weakness — any weakness — it’s the lack of a shutdown cornerback. I know the team is hoping that Aaron Ross can be that guy — we all know that they are hoping that Sam Madison doesn’t have to be that guy. Ross looked very good in limited time last season, seems like a solid draft pick, and a future number one corner.

Webster picked up his level of play greatly in the playoffs last season, and though he’s still very young, teams still have to feel confident they can win that matchup if Webster is the no. 2 corner on the Giants.

Jason Campbell still has a ways to go in his development, and this entire matchup is predicated on who develops faster: Ross or Campbell. Chances are neither reaches his full potential this season, so I’ll rule this a push for now.

Matchup #2: Eli Manning vs. Shawn Springs, Fred Smoot, and Carlos Rogers

Fact: From Week 17 through the Super Bowl, the best quarterback in football was Elisha Manning. Fact: Manning’s maturation is, to an extent, real, and the Giants can expect a much better season from their quarterback in 2008 than they got from him for the first 16 weeks of 2007. Fact: Eli Manning will not toss one interception per 100 balls he throws for the rest of his career as he did in the playoffs last year.

Eli is a good quarterback: in his second season, he averaged 6.8 yards per attempt. I think for the first time in his career, Manning will complete 60% of his passes and throw for 7+ YPA this year.

That still won’t make him the best passer in the division, and the only difference between Manning and Jason Campbell in 2008 is that Manning has already been to the top, and Campbell is still climbing. Otherwise, Manning will still show many of the same traits that the Redskins shut down in Week 15 in New Jersey. Thusly, the Redskins CBs get the slim advantage here.

Matchup #3: Clinton Portis vs. Antonio Pierce, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Gerris Wilkinson

Antonio Pierce lives to play the Redskins.

I can say with a great deal of certainty that if the Redskins didn’t let Pierce get away in 2005, the Giants wouldn’t have won the super bowl this year. Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Pierce’s individual numbers against the run are phenominal year in and year out, and the young talent that the Giants have at OLB have the potential to shut down backs out of the backfields on passes.

Portis is no slouch, but he always finds the sledding tough against Pierce and the Giants. Solid edge for the G-men here.

Matchup #4: Brandon Jacobs vs. Marcus Washington, London Fletcher, and Rocky McIntosh

Brandon Jacobs has established himself as a legit NFL rushing threat. He didn’t play against the Redskins in Week 3 last year, and had success rushing on the Redskins in the Week 15 showdown: but he was neutralized because the Giants were playing from behind the whole game.

London Fletcher has one weakness against the run: shedding blocks and attacking downhill. He has incredible range — if a back tries to beat him to the sideline, he’s going to get caught and dragged down.  But what the Redskins LB’s are ill-equipped to handle is a back who can run off his blockers’ hip right downhill at them.  The Redskins don’t give up long runs, but the quicker the play develops, the less effective the read and react style is.

Advantage Giants.

Matchup #5: Santana Moss, Malcolm Kelly, and Antwaan Randle El vs. James Butler, Sammy Knight, and Kenny Phillips

If the Giants have a potential for failure on defense, it could be because Tom Coughlin blocks younger more talented safeties like Phillips and second year man Michael Johnson with a “grizzled” vet like Sammy Knight.  Knight was a revelation in Jacksonville as a free agent, but prior to last season, his career had been spiraling downhill. He’ll be 33 prior to Week Two, and with the strength of Giants defense around him, I really like the matchup early in the season with a healthy Santana Moss running free in the open field with only Knight to take him down.

James Butler really came into his own in the playoffs last season, but until Johnson or Phillips is ready for prime time, the Redskins have a pretty potent matchup advantage here.

Matchup #6: Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, and Steve Smith vs. LaRon Landry and Reed Doughty

Plaxico Burress had been a failure in New York his first two years, in part because of a young QB, but last year, when he was struggling physically and really needed to focus, Burress flashed the elite WR skills that made the Steelers use a top pick on him in 2000.

Amani Toomer has always been reliable since moving to the second WR designation after Burress signed on and he shows no signs of slowing down.  Steve Smith has been a pretty valuable second round selection thus far.

I love LaRon Landry’s potential, but to me, the NY receivers look like the tops in the division, and a load for the Washington safeties to handle.  Advantage Giants.

Matchup #7: Chris Cooley and Mike Sellers vs. Pierce, Wilkinson, and Knight

Antonio Pierce, as good as he is against the run, can at times be a liability against the pass.  I’ve already covered the issues with Knight, and Wilkinson looks like he’s talented enough physically to cover a TE, but Chris Cooley is no normal TE.  Also, Mike Sellers is a freak.

Advantage Redskins.

Matchup # 8: Jeremy Shockey and Kevin Boss vs. Washington, Fletcher, and Doughty

The Redskins always made it a point to limit how much Jeremy Shockey could hurt them when these two teams played.  Shockey’s morale aside, the Redskins have his game figured out when they play.  In fact, since Greg Blache joined the Redskins, here are Shockey’s game receiving yards against the Redskins:  36,23,29,18,13,0,79,18.

Domination.  Also:  a broken leg (not that a defensive scheme has anything to do with that).

Kevin Boss proved a quality 5th round draft pick in Shockey’s absence last year, but you offer me any other No. 2 TE in the NFC East for Boss, and I’d do it in a heartbeat.

Advantage Redskins.

Matchup #9: Randy Thomas vs. Fred Robbins

Fred Robbins is a totally underrated defensive tackle who has been a unsung cornerstone of the Giants defense for the last two seasons.  Randy Thomas is a top right guard.  Being generous to Thomas, I’ll call this one a push.Matchup #10: Chris Snee vs. Cornelius Griffin

The NFC East is nothing if not a breeding ground for elite Right Guards.  Snee is widely regarded as the Giants’ best offensive lineman, and a top tier NFL Guard.  Griffin can certainly hold his own in this matchup, but the advantage goes to the Giants.

Matchup #11: Chris Samuels and Jon Jansen vs. Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyoira

Even with Michael Strahan’s retirement, the Giants probably still have the top pass rushing duo in the NFL.  Justin Tuck may have become a household name during SB XLII, but he’s been paying huge dividends off the bench for the Giants for three years now, and he’s definately earned his starting job.

Samuels and Jansen are two of the better tackles in the business, but Tuck and Osi can turn any two tackles into a mismatch.  Advantage Giants.

Matchup #12: David Diehl and Kareem McKenzie vs. Andre Carter and Phillip Daniels

Diehl played surprisingly well at Left Tackle last season, effectively replacing the departed Luke Petitigout.  He earned himself a hefty raise when he signed an extension last month.  As well as Diehl played last year though, he might be in over his head against top pass rushers.  Is Andre Carter a top pass rusher?  Not really, but he’s certainly good enough to keep Diehl’s hands full all day long.

Phillip Daniels might be a step slow these days, but he’s had some pretty good games against Kareem McKenzie in the past, and even at age 35, probably can handle him again this year.  At very worst, the Giants’ tackles vs. the Redskins ends is a draw.

Redskins/Giants Final Verdict

My first thought regarding this matchup:  I like the Redskins’ chances on opening night.  A lot.  I might even pick them straight up.  If not for the second thought:

The Giants are the better football team, and right now, it’s either them or Philly as the top team in the East.  The Giants have the pieces and the experience to construct the best defense in the division, better than Philadelphia’s.  And when the weather gets cold, it seems like having a strong defense becomes more important than being able to throw the ball (see the Redskins last season, though they threw when it counted most).

Given the entire season, it’s hard to see a lot of scenarios where the Redskins finish ahead of the Giants.  The Giants could get riddled by injuries.  If Eli Manning gets hurt, David Carr is waiting in the wings behind him.  The offensive line is strong, but lacks depth.  But even with this argument, the Redskins depth issues run deeper than the Giants.

Maybe a Week One win on the road could give the Redskins a one game advantage that they never relinquish.   I don’t see it happening, but stranger things have happened.  Either way, the Redskins at best look headed for a split with the Giants, and at worse they look headed for two poor performances by the offense against a top defense, and a large hole to climb out of in the NFC East.