But NFL Scouts are rarely held responsible for their own evaluations. And that has led to a culture where no one really improves over time. It’s a culture where doing it their way has become more important than doing the best job they can.

No one is expected to be perfect — but a better track record would be nice for those teams that perennially draft busts and finish below .500. Scott Campbell, the former director of college scouting — now the director of player personnel — for the Redskins has done a great job in his craft, and the Redskins have avoided drafting a major bust since 2002 with Taylor Jacobs.

Ultimately though, every team in the NFL had a scouting consensus that Colt Brennan was not a first day pick. Not even a first 5 round pick. Brennan wasn’t the only Quarterback with stats that indicate NFL success who slipped in the draft. Green Bay and Miami landed prototype franchise QBs in the second round. Andre Woodson, a 3.5 year starter at Kentucky, actually fell further than Brennan. I could do a very long post on why all these guys got overlooked by scouts, but only one of those guys is a Redskin, so I will focus on him.

First a disclaimer: The fatal error many scouts make comes when they just don’t have enough film to grade on, but pass judgment anyway. Obviously this isn’t the case with Brennan. Colt was one of the most celebrated/nitpicked QBs in modern college history. Scouts simply just don’t like him. Obviously it’s not his body of work, that’s astounding. There’s another reason that makes scouts shy away from him. Could it be:

Brennan Struggled in Big Games

This is a horrible argument. For the longest time, this was the knock on Peyton Manning — the greatest QB in modern history. The reason this is such a bad argument is that a “big game” is totally 100% subjective. Certainly, Bowl Games should be considered big games, but what about major conference games?  Heck, what about every D-I college football game every played?!  I’d say that’s pretty large scale.  Any scout who is willing to limit his tape evaluation to 2-3 games is going to be wrong a large percentage of the time, pure and simple.

Colt’s Numbers are Inflated by the Spread Offense

This makes a little more sense, but the concept of inflated numbers is a bit odd.  Obviously, counting stats like touchdowns, yards, and interceptions can be inflated by the amount of times a guy throws, and research has shown that a guy who throws 60 times a game gains no more college experience than a QB who starts the same amount of games, but only throws 35 times a game.

Rate stats, such as yards per attempt, and completion percentage, can not be inflated.  For those, the more times a player throws, the stronger our confidence gets in the accuracy of the number.  Colt Brennan’s completion percentage isn’t quite as impressive as his TD totals suggest it should be, but for his career, it’s still in the upper 60’s.  I mean, at the very least, he deserved strong consideration in the second round based on that alone.

Colt didn’t play any serious competition at Hawaii

This is a legitimate reason for concern, but scouts are seemingly missing the point:  this is a reason for re-evaluation–not to write a guy off.  Chad Pennington, Jim Kelly, and Daunte Culpepper all came out of small schools to face pretty good competition.  Maybe the quality of competition that Joe Flacco saw in the Atlantic-10 was a tad better than what Brennan saw in the WAC, but it doesn’t make sense to totally write Brennan off while drafting Flacco 18th overall.

Colt has Skeletons in his Closet

I hate the whole concept of character issues affecting draft stock.  These kids are young, feel invulnerable, and are prone to making mistakes.  Brennan got booted from Colorado for misconduct, spent a year in JUCO, and ended up at Hawaii, where he went on to become a record setting passer.  Are we seriously going to confuse Brennan for a guy with a long list of Felonies?

Players, QBs especially, who play in JUCO are Ill-Equipped to Develop in the NFL

This is an interesting one.  Brennan transferred to JUCO after the 2003 season, spent the 2004 season as a JUCO QB, before walking on at Hawaii in 2005.  The knock on JUCO QBs is pretty damning:  That the skills learned at small programs by these coaches equip players to succeed in the college game, but actually hurt their pro prospects.  This is probably the most legitimate criticism of Brennan, as the skill set that made him successful in college might not translate well to the NFL.  It is a rare case, to be certain, that a JUCO passer ends up two years later tearing up and burning all the college record books, but it’s sort of like playing in the arena league for the NFL:  you get valuable experience while you are there — but the longer you stay, the tougher the transition to the next level will be.  For Brennan, the bill may be coming due about now.

With that said, how many NFL scouts do you think went through this type of thought process when grading the guy?  If you said none, keep reading.

Brennan lacks a big arm

Who cares?  The NFL is so timing based that any QB who can throw the ball 30 yards on a rope has as good of an arm as is needed to succeed.  That includes…any serious pro QB prospect.

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Scouts seem to want to write Brennan off rather than evaluate him.  He probably wouldn’t develop even if given the chance, that’s just the nature of players like him.  This case, though, is incredibly intriguing.  I mean, Brennan’s numbers alone means he’s earned a tongue in cheek shot at NFL stardom.  He’s probably not going to get it in Washington, but he figures to succeed Todd Collins as the team’s backup QB, and just a small sample of success is all he will need for the Redskins to be able to turn around and deal him for a day one pick to a team who needs a starting QB.

The hype surrounding him should work in Washington’s favor here, and hopefully Colt gets his shot.  He’s simply not the pro prospect Jason Campbell is, and he never will be.  But he’s a good prospect in his own right, and the Redskins should be happy to have him.

That’s okay though, at least for the time being. Sure, the players, agents, coaches and executives may be taking a lot of time off right now before going back to work and making critical preseason decisions. This is a perfect time to speculate about what those decisions could entail.

Currently, the Redskins have listed 89 players on their roster. Though this number includes the non-roster minicamp invitees, I feel like I can confidently forage through the numerous replacement level talents in camp and project the final 53 man roster.

2008 Redskins Roster (Projection)**

**Cuts/practice squad players are non bolded.

Quarterbacks

Jason Campbell
Todd Collins
Colt Brennan
Sam Hollenbach
Derek Devine

Running Backs

Clinton Portis
Ladell Betts
Rock Cartwright
Marcus Mason
Eric Shelton

Fullbacks

Mike Sellers
Nemo Broughton
Pete Schmitt

There won’t be any surprises in the offensive backfield. Apparently the team doesn’t plan on keeping more than three running backs. One would figure that if there was going to be a 4th runner kept, they’d open up the competition to include more than just two possible candidates. Neither Mason nor Panther castoff Shelton is a threat to beat out any of the incumbents, but injury could change the circumstances.

Wide Receivers

Santana Moss
Antwaan Randle El (more…)

Mapu played in 50 games for the Volunteers at the defensive tackle position. He started four games in his senior season [2007] and scored at least one tackle in every game this year.

Mapu won Parade Magazine All-America honors coming out of Siuaki Liavi High School [Hawaii] in 2001. He interrupted his college career to participate in a two year church mission in Texas and Louisiana. He was relegated to second string upon his return in ‘07. However, Mapu showed the Redskins enough during the mini-camp tryout to be signed for a second look. 

NFLDraftScout.com ranks Mapu 54 out of 149 defensive tackles in this year’s draft class. 

The Redskins perplexed their fan base when they signed Mathis only a few days after re-signing popular free agent kick returner Rock Cartwright.

Antwaan Randle El’s performance as a punt returner declined over the past three seasons [10.2 yds per return in ‘05 with Pittsburgh; 6.1 YPR in ‘07]. I suspected that Mathis was here either to compete for that job, or supplant utility man James Thrash as fifth receiver and back-up returner.

I’m guessing the Skins now see Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas in that role.  A story on redskins.com mentions Thomas and rookie cornerback J.T. Tryon in that role.

Defense attorney Michael Hornung announced that Hunte agreed to a guilty plea to second degree murder and burglary and would serve a 29 year sentence.

It is the latest development this week in the prosecution that saw Florida officials announce that the State would not see the death penalty in the case and the arrest of a fifth suspect, 16 year old Timothy Brown.

Hunte sought a plea agreement as soon as he was arrested. His story is that he was not aware that anyone was armed in the burglary gone wrong and that he remained outside in a car throughout the episode. Hunte did not, however, come forward with his story prior to his arrest.

The trial date for the remaining suspects is scheduled for August 25.

That’s more enticing than the upcoming Redskins Beach Blitz in Virginia Beach with the players.  

Redskins.com promotes a Win a Trip to Aruba … With the Cheerleaders contest for five days/four nights, air fare for two included.

The contest appears to be sponsored by the Radisson Aruba Resort & Casino, meaning if you enter you will surely get spammed with promotional materials by Radisson. But we are talking The First Ladies of Football here. It’s a small price to pay for the chance to spend time with them for the 2009 calendar photo shoot. The 2008 Calendar shoot was in Cancun, Mexico.

This contest closes Friday, May 16, so, it you are interested, hustle over to redskins.com and register.

Don’t know about you, but I’d much rather be in Aruba for the cheerleader shoot than in Virginia Beach for the Redskins Beach Blitz this weekend [May 17-18]. Aruba is more lush than Virginia Beach. The cheerleaders are more lush in their swim suits than are the players in theirs.

The Beach Blitz is a chance for fans to mingle with groups of players. Not that you would get up close and personal, but enough to see them as people.

Occasionally, real news occurs at the Beach Blitz as it did at last year’s Blitz when Clinton Portis wondered aloud why people were making a fuss over Michael Vick and his dogs.

During uproar that followed, he probably wished he was in Cancun with the cheerleaders.

Corneilius Griffin

This is a bit tough to fathom, as Griffin hasn’t really been a serious contributor over the last two years. The Redskins opted not to extend his deal in a potential cap room creating move, so it’s clear the front office is wary of his production. The Redskins defense is typically stronger when Griffin is healthy and getting a nice push up the middle. He’s got injury problems that limit his effectiveness, but he is at the age where age itself may start to limit how many games he can play. For a team that just went an entire ten-pick draft without adding any interior line help, the Redskins are counting on Griffin more than ever for at least one more season.

Pete Kendall

In two months, Pete Kendall will celebrate his 35th birthday. Now, there is reason to think that Kendall might improve during his second year playing with Casey Rabach and Chris Samuels. Kendall might have been the player on the OL who was least affected by the Thomas and Jansen injuries. However, since Guards can play late into their 30’s before a significant decline, we have to wonder if Kendall is just now nearing the end of his effectiveness. If he was an above average player who declined due to age prior to becoming a Redskin, then he should be alright this year–at a similar skill level to last year. However, if Kendall was merely a career average player who is due to decline this season, the Redskins might have to rush Chad Rinehart into the starting lineup much quicker than originally expected.

Shawn Springs

To date, the only thing keeping Springs from being an elite cornerback is injury trouble. Well last year, he was entirely healthy and played at a high level. Unfortunately, Shawn Springs is now 33 years old, and each year from here on out is going to cost him some speed. The Redskins have good depth at corner, and by the time Springs has enough time to show if he’s still got it, Carlos Rogers should be back in the lineup. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Redskins will face Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Matt Leinart, Tony Romo, and Donovan McNabb in the first five weeks of the season. If Shawn Springs can’t mask his age, the entire football universe is going to know it by October.

London Fletcher

Fans who remember a 2nd year Fletcher playing in Super Bowl 34 for the St. Louis Rams probably think he’s ancient. In reality, Fletcher turns 33 next week. That’s not a bad age for a middle linebacker; Zach Thomas was incredibly effective through his age 33 season, and Ray Lewis will also be turning 33 this week. Fletcher can probably still be counted on for this season in the middle.

The really critical part is this: what if he can’t be counted on? The only possible solution the Redskins have at linebacker right now is HB Blades, and Blades probably isn’t experienced enough to succeed in the middle just yet. The Redskins really need Fletcher to stay on the field, but they also need to get a veteran backup LB in here right away.

Andre Carter

Carter was a very nice value signing for the Redskins, and he was their best defensive lineman in 2007. With that said, the best measure of who a guy really is lies within his three year production. For Carter, that was 4.5 sacks, 6.0 sacks, and 10.5 sacks in 2005-2007. That averages out to 7 sacks a season. Carter isn’t particularly old; he’s still in his prime and playing at his best position finally, but the Redskins would be foolish to expect 2007 type production ever again from Carter. His real talent probably lies somewhere in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons.

The real question is this: If Andre Carter is good for 6-7 sacks a year in each of the next two seasons, can the Redskins keep their defense in the top half of the league, or is the secondary going to get exposed again? Time will tell, but at the very least, it is reason for concern.

Mix is listed on the Redskins roster at 6-5, 235 pounds, but Cerrato said Mix reported to mini-camp at 245 pounds.

The Redskins said they had to get taller at wide receiver to implement Jim Zorn’s West Coast offense. They did that quick with Mix and draftees Devin Thomas, 6-1, and Malcolm Kelly, 6-3.

Isn’t it interesting that, while the Skins want taller receivers, Zorn wants QB Jason Campbell, 6-5, to play smaller in the pocket?
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Popular opinion holds that Kelly and Thomas give the Redskins an advantage in the red zone for the “jump ball.” Apart from the inherent risks involved — jump balls can be snagged by anybody — it misses the point. The need for tallness in the West Coast offense is a matter of size as well as height.

West Coast receivers run through a lot of traffic for short distances in a fast paced passing game. Defensive backs smack them around within five yards of the scrimmage line, then they get covered by linebackers and the strong safety. West Coast receivers have more run blocking assignments to support tailbacks running or receiving to the edge of the line.

West Coast receivers need the bulk to take and make the hits. That’s a concern with smallish receivers like Antwaan Randle El, 5-10, 190, and 5-10 Santana Moss who weighs in at 200 pounds now. Moss was listed at 185 last year.

Terrell Owens is the prototype West Coast receiver among current players. He is 6-3, 213. Keyshawn Johnson, a very good possession receiver, played at 6-4, 211. Our own Art Monk, fearless in the middle of the field, played at 6-3, 210.

Cerrato wants receivers who play at receiver weight, right around 210 to 220 pounds. Anthony Mix could play linebacker at 245. The Skins want him to outrun linebackers. That’s the point of Cerrato’s message.
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The Green Bay Packers released wide receiver Koren Robinson, 6-1, 210, yesterday. I trust he will not show up at Redskins Park in a parade of out of work receivers as we saw last season.

What I wanted to know about this is whether or not teams had used this strategy in the past, and if the results were favorable.  Should more teams attack an area of need multiple times in the off-season?  This is what history told me:

One current NFL coach is a fan of the drafting multiple players at a single position strategy, and that would be Denver’s Mike Shanahan.  Shanahan drafted Defensive Ends Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder in the first two rounds of the 2007 draft, and he drafted three Cornerbacks with his first three selections in 2005:  Karl Paymah, Dominique Foxworth, and the late Darrent Williams.

The results on Denver’s strategies have been sort of a mixed bag.  Paymah and Foxworth are both still key contributors for the Broncos, and Williams was clearly the best of the three before he was tragically gunned down on the final night of the 2006 season.  Neither Jarvis Moss or Tim Crowder has made a dent in Denver yet.

The Cincinnati Bengals have twice drafted multiple linebackers with their top two picks.  The first time, they landed Takeo Spikes and Brian Simmons in 1998, and those two created a pretty nice LB duo until they both left Cincinnati following the 2003 season.  A year later, the Bengals tried to replace both of them in the 2005 draft, selecting David Pollack and Odell Thurman.  That didn’t work out well for them for fluky reasons:  Pollack sustained a career ending neck injury, and Odell Thurman has not played since 2005, he’s been suspended and just recently reinstated.

One of the more disheartening examples I found had to be the 1998 Carolina Panthers.  In that draft, the Panthers invested their first three picks, all day one selections, in Defensive Ends Jason Peter, Chuck Wiley, and Mitch Marrow.  None of those three ever got to play with 2001 First-rounder Julius Peppers, and the Panthers wasted an entire draft.

The 2004 Chicago Bears drafted Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson with their first two selections.  Johnson is in Dallas now, but appears to have been a good value pick, off-field issues aside, and Tommie Harris is one of the very best DTs in the NFL.

But only one comparison I found really hits home as a similar situation to the Redskins drafting multiple receivers in the first two rounds this year.  I’m talking about the 2003 Cardinals, and their draft that year.  In the first round, the Cards called for Wide Receiver Bryant Johnson, and supplemented him in the second round with WR Anquan Boldin.  Like the Redskins, the Cardinals had a clear need at receiver that year, and it was Bryant Johnson who was supposed to fill the void.  But it didn’t take the Cardinals very long to find out that the real gem in that class was Boldin.  5 years later now, Anquan Boldin is one of the top receivers in the NFL, and Bryant Johnson just finished a mediocre career with the Cardinals and signed a one year deal with the San Francisco 49ers.

The lesson to be learned here from all those cases is that very rarely are both players brought in to start.  More accurately, this strategy seems to be used to bring in players to compete.  For Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, history shows that this competition could decide which of them will be a successful starter for the Redskins the next ten years, and which one will make a nice backup for another team down the road.

For the team, it’s clear they are taking the road less traveled here, but in most historical cases, the team was successful in fulfilling their need, moreso than if they had simply selected only one player and hoped for the best.

Archuleta excelled with the St. Louis Rams when Lovie Smith was the defensive coordinator. The Redskins dumped Archuleta to Smith’s Chicago Bears and it seemed Adam would find his place at strong safety, his natural position. The Redskins used Archuleta in deep coverage, exposing how out of place he was in that role.

The big fear is that you bring in the wrong player to do the wrong thing, release him and he excels elsewhere. How dumb does that make you look?

Fear no more. The Bears released Archuleta today. Arch started ten games last season, but finished the year on special teams. Fan sentiment about Archuleta in Chicago isn’t much different than it was here –  good riddance.

Well, I won’t lose sleep over any potential success for Brandon Lloyd with the Bears.

I promise.