MVN - Most Valuable Network

Minnesota vs. San Diego: One up, one down

Wait, are you telling me there are OTHER National Football League games this week other than Pats vs. Colts? No…really? Aw man, I thought I was going to get a week off. Oh well, let’s talk Vikings/Chargers, shall we?

On the surface, this looks like a match-up of two teams heading in completely different directions. San Diego (4-3, tied for first in the AFC West, although it’s technically in second as a result of its week four loss to division-leading Kansas City) is pistol-hot coming into Sunday’s contest at the Dome. The Chargers have won three games in a row, all in decisive fashion - outscoring league titans Denver, Oakland and Houston by a combined 104-27 margin - and are starting to look like the team most “experts” thought they’d be before the start of the season (Norv Turner’s coaching be damned). The Vikings? Well, is it really worth re-hashing how things have gone so far for the Purple and Gold in 2007? Methinks not.

So, just how have the Chargers been able to rebound over the past three weeks? I’ll give three areas of improvement followed by how the Vikings might (or might not) be able to counteract those things Sunday:

1. Calming Rivers…
A glance at San Diego’s statistics from its current three-game winning streak shows that Turner has dialed back the workload for quarterback Philip Rivers significantly. Rivers, the fourth-year man out of N.C. State, has not attempted more than 21 passes in any game over the course of the winning streak. He’s thrown 50 passes in all in those three games, compared to 139 passes in the team’s first four games (in which it went 1-3).

The decreased workload has led to increased efficiency as Rivers is 34-for-50 for 516 yards, five touchdowns and just one interception. By comparison, Rivers had thrown five touchdowns and six picks in his team’s first four games.

….2. Lead To Raging Runners

Of course, when a team has the best running back in the game, like the Chargers do with LaDainian Tomlinson, it’s easy to turn your attention away from the passing game. That’s exactly what San Diego has done as of late, going back to the power running game which has made it so successful in recent years. Tomlinson, in tune, has responded, running for 355 yards in the last three weeks as opposed to just 262 in his first four.

For the Vikings to counteract areas one and two, the formula is simple: constantly stop Tomlinson early, force Rivers to throw more times than he’d prefer (I’m still not sure Rivers is a great quarterback if he has to throw 30 or 35 times a game) and hope you can maybe pressure him into making a mistake or two…or three…or, really, four or five if this Minnesota team hopes to have a shot at a win.

3. Turning The Tables 

After a sluggish start under new defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell (shocker!), the Chargers’ defense - much like its offense - has basically gone out and dominated over the past three weeks, particularly in the turnover department. San Diego’s defense has taken the ball away 11 times (seven interceptions, four fumble recoveries) in the last three weeks after forcing just eight turnovers (four interceptions, four fumble recoveries) in its first four games.

Again, for Minnesota to counteract this, the formula is simple: Don’t turn the ball over. WAY easier said than done, considering the Vikings offense and the Chargers defense. Minnesota’s offense, it appears, will be led Sunday by second-year quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson hasn’t been able to avoid turning the ball over - which is kind of like saying “The Metrodome is a toilet”, but still - and the Chargers, led by players like outside linebacker Shawne “I swear my sack totals haven’t dropped because I’ve cycled off the juice! Why doesn’t anyone believe me?!?!” Merriman, play an aggressive style of defense that can force opposing quarterbacks into numerous mistakes.  This could get ugly.

Prediction

Based on my end paragraphs for areas two and three, it should be clear how I feel this one is going to turn out.

Defensively, Minnesota might be able to take away Tomlinson slightly, but he is just too talented a runner for this defense to handle. After all, in the brief time that this defense has been thought to be one of the best run-stopping units in the league, it’s never faced anyone as great as he is. And even if the Vikings are somehow able to make Tomlinson a non-factor, Rivers - despite my misgivings about him - just has too many weapons at his disposal, particularly with the addition of wideout Chris Chambers, for Minnesota’s weak pass defense to handle. Is there any way the Vikes can stop tight end Antonio Gates? In a word…no.

Offensively, Minnesota will try to establish the run early on in order to take some pressure off Jackson. It won’t work. San Diego’s run defense - ranked seventh in the league, just four spots below Minnesota’s - will make non-factors out of running backs Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. This means Jackson’s arm will have to keep the Vikes in the game. Uh oh.

Expect numerous Minnesota turnovers and San Diego playmakers running up and down the field Sunday. For the Vikings, my prediction, as a wise man once said, is pain.

Final: San Diego 35, Minnesota 7

This entry was posted on Friday, November 2nd, 2007 at 3:57 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.